North Africa Regional Outlook: November 4, 2026
From eastern Libya’s ratification of the 2019 Turkey-Libya maritime agreement reshaping East Med and provoking opposition from Greece and the US, to Russia’s expanding footprint across Africa and China’s growing role in the continent’s industrial and energy sectors.

Dear Friend,

This week in North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel: From eastern Libya’s ratification of the 2019 Turkey-Libya maritime agreement reshaping East Med and provoking opposition from Greece and the US, to Russia’s expanding footprint across Africa and China’s growing role in the continent’s industrial and energy sectors—explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel.

Hafed Al Ghwell
Director Emeritus and Senior Advisor
North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Sahel Program

November 4, 2026

Read the North Africa Weekly on LinkedIn or join the conversation on X: @StimsonNAfrica

From the North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Sahel Program

Events, commentaries and updates from the Stimson Center.

Egypt’s Parallel Inc.: The Myth of Sovereign Efficiency

Stimson North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program Senior Advisor and Director Emeritus Hafed Al-Ghwell’s analysis challenges the claim that Egypt’s military-run economic empire operates more efficiently than the private sector, and examines its cost to growth and reform.

Defying Gravity: Russian Propaganda in North Africa and the Sahel

In a new policy paper for the Stimson Center’s North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program, Tom Kent examines how Russian information operations shape narratives in North Africa and the Sahel and why they continue to gain traction despite setbacks on the ground.

The Sahel’s Humanitarian Emergency

Stimson panel examines the Sahel’s humanitarian emergency, shifting external partnerships, eroding civilian protection, access constraints, and U.S. policy implications.

On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

Bloomberg

Niger Gets First Algerian Fuel Shipment Escorted by Troops

Niger received its first fuel convoy from Algeria under military escort. The deliveries continue Algiers’ push back into the Sahel after it inaugurated a power plant in Niamey and sent fighter jets after the August coup attempt.

The National

Egypt Signs $1 Billion World Bank Deal as War Compounds Economic Pressures

Egypt signed a $1 billion financing agreement with the World Bank to cushion the economic hit from the regional war, as Cairo races to close its final IMF review by mid-December.

Daily Sabah

Turkey Welcomes Libya’s Approval of Maritime Deal

Ankara welcomed the House of Representatives’ ratification of the 2019 Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum, a major win for Turkish strategy in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Associated Press

Egypt Puts Mada Masr Editor Lina Attalah on Trial

AP reports on the trial of Lina Attalah, editor of Egypt’s last major independent outlet Mada Masr, in a case press freedom groups call retaliation for independent journalism.

Reuters

Egypt’s Central Bank Makes First Rate Hike Since March 2024

The Central Bank of Egypt raised interest rates for the first time since March 2024, responding to renewed inflation pressure from the regional war and currency weakness.

Reuters

Air Algérie Resumes Tripoli Flights After 12-Year Hiatus

Air Algérie restarted flights to Tripoli after 12 years, signaling Algeria’s warming ties with western Libya’s government.

Bloomberg

Libya Parliament Caps Recent Moves by Backing New Central Banker

The House of Representatives backed Fawzi Abu Khazam as central bank governor, the latest in a string of eastern moves, after Aguila Saleh’s removal and the Turkey maritime ratification, that reshape Libya’s institutional balance.

Middle East Eye

Sisi’s 2030 Exit Plan Would Keep Egypt in the Army’s Hands

Argues that any transition plan built around Sisi’s 2030 term limit would preserve the military’s grip on Egyptian politics and the economy.

Reuters

Russia in Talks with Four African States on Large Nuclear Power Plants, Rosatom Says

Rosatom said it is negotiating large nuclear power plant projects with four African countries, part of Moscow’s push for long-term energy footprints on the continent.

U.S. News

As Peacekeepers Leave Western Sahara, Refugees Yearn to End a Half-Century Wait

AP reports from the Tindouf camps as MINURSO winds down, capturing Sahrawi refugees’ fears that the mission’s end closes the door on a referendum.

ABC News

UN’s Peacekeeping Mission in Western Sahara Ends After 35 Years

MINURSO’s mandate lapsed at midnight on October 31 after the US and Russia vetoed each other’s renewal drafts, ending the UN’s longest-running presence in the territory.

Euro-Petrole

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman Reaffirm Commitment to Market Stability

The core OPEC+ group, including Algeria, reaffirmed its commitment to oil market stability amid supply disruptions from the regional war.

The Brussels Times

EU Allocates €20 Million to Mauritania’s Military for Land Surveillance Assets

The EU committed €20 million to equip Mauritania’s armed forces with land surveillance assets, deepening security and migration cooperation with Nouakchott on the Sahel’s western edge.

Reuters

Libya’s Eastern Parliament Appoints Fawzi Abu Khazam as Central Bank Governor

The House of Representatives named Fawzi Abu Khazam governor of the Central Bank of Libya. The move risks reopening the institutional split that crippled the bank in 2024 and complicates the US-backed unification track.

Deutsche Welle

Smuggling, Power, Profit: Irregular Migration out of Eastern Libya

DW investigation into how smuggling networks tied to power structures in Haftar-controlled eastern Libya profit from irregular migration toward Europe.

Greek City Times

US Calls Turkey-Libya Maritime Deal “Unhelpful” and “Provocative” over Crete

Reports Washington’s criticism of the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum for ignoring Crete’s maritime entitlements, siding with Athens on the Eastern Mediterranean dispute.

Reuters

Egypt Signs Preliminary Financing Agreement for $650 Million Solar Project in Upper Egypt

Egypt signed a preliminary financing deal for a $650 million solar project in Upper Egypt, part of its push to expand renewable generation and cut fuel import costs.

US Department of State

Designation of Libyan Judicial Police Official for Involvement in Torture and Cruel, Inhumane and Degrading Treatment

Washington designated a Libyan Judicial Police official over torture and abuse of detainees, barring the official from entering the US.

Bloomberg

UN Peace Mission to Western Sahara Hits Unprecedented Standoff

Reports the October 30 deadlock in which competing US and Russian vetoes left MINURSO without a mandate for the first time since 1991.

France 24

Tunisians Drawn into Russia’s War in Ukraine

Reports on Tunisians recruited to fight for Russia in Ukraine, often lured by job offers, amid Tunisia’s economic crisis and youth unemployment.

Offshore Magazine

Eni Awards Major Contracts for Cyprus Cronos Gas Development, Advances Export Route via Egypt

Eni awarded contracts for the Cronos gas field off Cyprus, which will export gas through Egypt’s LNG infrastructure, reinforcing Egypt’s role as the Eastern Mediterranean’s gas hub.

The Wall Street Journal

Italy’s Eni Expects More Gas Drilling Offshore Europe as Supply Concerns Mount

Eni expects an increase in offshore gas drilling near Europe, including the Mediterranean and North Africa, as supply concerns from the regional war push buyers toward closer sources.

Arab News

Morocco Plans $815 Million Tanger Med Expansion as New Port Nears Opening

Morocco plans an $815 million expansion of Tanger Med as the Nador West Med port nears opening, cementing the kingdom’s position as a leading Mediterranean logistics hub.

Reuters

IMF Aims for Egypt’s Last Program Review to Be Cleared by Mid-December

The IMF mission aims for a staff-level agreement and board approval before Egypt’s EFF and RSF programs end on December 15, with a final disbursement of about $2.33 billion.

Reuters

Putin Woos African Leaders at Showcase Summit, Says Russia Is a Better Partner Than the West

At the third Russia-Africa summit in Moscow, Putin pitched Russia as a more reliable partner than Western powers, offering security, energy, and grain cooperation.

Business Insider Africa

Africa’s Second-Strongest Military Approves First Foreign Troop Deployment in 53 Years

Egypt approved its first foreign troop deployment since 1973, a major shift in Cairo’s defense posture tied to the regional security crisis and Gulf partners’ requests for support.

The Economist

Analysing Africa Newsletter: A Clash of Civilisations in the Horn

The Economist’s Africa newsletter examines escalating rivalries in the Horn of Africa, including Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions and Egypt’s role in the regional standoff.

Bloomberg

AFC, Munich Re Agree to Share $1 Billion of Trade Finance Risk

The Africa Finance Corporation and Munich Re agreed to share $1 billion in trade finance risk, aiming to expand credit availability for African trade.

Reuters

Congo Suspends Artisanal Mining Agency Head for Failing to Prevent Illegal Activities

The DRC suspended the head of its artisanal mining agency after a surge in illegal mining, part of Kinshasa’s broader crackdown that also targeted Chinese miners.

Bloomberg

Putin Courts Africa Leaders at Moscow Summit to Expand Influence

Covers the Russia-Africa summit in Moscow, where Putin sought new security, energy, and mining deals with African governments, including the Sahel juntas.

ArchDaily

Dammed Between Energy and Water Scarcity: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Nile

Feature examining the GERD’s dual role as an energy project and a source of water insecurity for downstream Egypt and Sudan.

Reuters

Russian State Firm to Create Geological Map of Mali, Build Mining Data System

A Russian state geological firm will map Mali’s mineral resources and build its mining data system, giving Moscow deeper insight into Mali’s gold and lithium sector.

Business Insider Africa

Morocco Dethrones Africa’s Richest Country as Most Attractive Investment Hub

Morocco topped a new ranking of Africa’s most attractive investment destinations, overtaking the previous leader on the strength of its industrial and infrastructure push.

Financial Times

The rise of Africa’s Chinese factories

After years of state-led infrastructure projects, private companies are leading the charge with investing in manufacturing.

Business Insider Africa

Russia Sends Heavily Armed Naval Training Ship to an African Country on Four-Ocean Voyage

Reports on a Russian naval training ship’s port call in Africa during a four-ocean deployment, part of Moscow’s expanding naval presence around the continent.

Business Insider Africa

Africa’s Third-Largest Natural Gas Producer Enlists Chinese Seismic Survey Vessel BGP

A leading African gas producer contracted China’s BGP for seismic surveys, deepening Chinese involvement in African upstream exploration.

Bloomberg

IMF Aims to Wrap Up Egypt’s Final Program Review by End of Year

IMF Middle East Director Jihad Azour said talks on Egypt’s final review would start after the Bangkok meetings, after which Cairo can decide on a new program.

Morocco World News

Royal Cabinet: Non-Renewal of MINURSO Mandate Means Mission’s Presence Should End

The Royal Cabinet called the lapse a “major step” toward a definitive conclusion of the Sahara issue at the UN and said MINURSO should leave in the coming days.

The Arab Weekly

Morocco Says MINURSO’s Departure Should Follow Expiry of Its Mandate

Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita argues that ending the annual renewal removes leverage other states used to tie the Sahara file to unrelated demands.

Le Matin

Moroccan Sahara: Behind the Russian Veto, the End of MINURSO and a New Deal for Morocco

Reconstructs the diplomatic backstory of the vote and Rabat’s planning for a failed renewal.

The Libya Observer

Security Council Extends UNSMIL Mandate Until October 2027, Reaffirms Support for Political Roadmap

Resolution 2835 welcomes Tetteh’s roadmap, the Structured Dialogue, and the mini-dialogue agreement, and encourages UNSMIL to expand in Benghazi, Sabha, and Sirte.

Al Jazeera

Rare Unrest Flares in Tunisian Capital as Police Clash with Protesters

Police fired tear gas in Ettadhamen after a man died in detention and clashed with protesters in Jebiniana after another death linked to security forces, as a military court jailed Olfa Hamdi for four years.

Morocco World News

Moroccan Parliament Approves El Mansouri Government Program with 204 Votes

Of 331 MPs voting, 204 backed the program and 127 opposed it, clearing the Article 88 investiture threshold.

The National

Morocco’s New Prime Minister Puts Two-State Solution at Heart of Foreign Policy Agenda

Morocco’s first female head of government pledged to rally international support for the autonomy plan and backed a two-state solution on Palestine.

The National

IMF Sets December Target to Clear Egypt’s Last Program Review

IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack put the final disbursement at about $2.3 billion, with divestment and the state ownership policy as priorities.

Sudan Tribune

Sudanese Army Advances in Darfur and Kordofan, Senior Officer Says

Chief of staff Yasir al-Atta said forces are advancing on Darfur and Kordofan and accused the UAE president of backing the RSF.

APA News

Niger’s Tiani Calls for “Offensive Justice” to Uphold Sovereignty

Opening the judicial year, Tiani urged legal ingenuity in international litigation and in recovering compensation owed to the state.

The Africa Report

Saddam Haftar’s Ambition to Rule Libya Runs into Trouble in the Sahel

Saddam Haftar uses hostage diplomacy and a Chad alliance to make himself indispensable, but the Mali and Niger juntas see it as meddling. Published October 9; included as context.

Al Jazeera

Libya’s Parliament Removes Speaker Aguila Saleh After 12 Years

Chatham House’s Emadeddin Badi calls Saleh “the latest casualty of Saddam Haftar’s drive to centralise decision-making.” Published October 7; included as context.

Al Jazeera

Tunisia’s Economic Crisis Deepens as the Promise of a Better Life Fades

Feature on unemployed graduates and Tunisia’s 14.9% unemployment rate.

Middle East Eye

How Algeria Came to Treat the UAE as a National Security Threat

Traces Algeria’s path to viewing Abu Dhabi as a security threat. Published September 14; included as context.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

COMMENTARY

Ethiopia Raises the Stakes with Latest Red Sea Gamble

Stimson Center North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program Advisor and Director Emeritus Hafed Al Ghwell argues that Ethiopia’s latest push for Red Sea access escalates tensions with Eritrea and Egypt and risks dragging the Horn of Africa into wider conflict.

POLICY ANALYSIS

The Multiple Costs of the US-Iran War: Hormuz, Europe, and South Asia’s Widening Economic Exposure

Policy Center for the New South Analysis of how the US-Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz disruption impose rising economic costs on Europe and South Asia, with spillovers into North African energy and trade.

COMMENTARY

Tunisia’s Instability Worsens: The US Should Not Wait to Take Action

Washington Institute commentary argues that Tunisia’s escalating protests, repression, and economic crisis demand early US engagement before Saied’s government faces a deeper breakdown.

COMMENTARY

Mali: The Return to Kidal

Argues Africa Corps acts as “a capability partner, not a control partner” after the army, GATIA, and MSA entered Kidal unopposed on October 6.

COMMENTARY

Preparing Sudan’s Civilian Transition Amid War

Washington Institute commentary argues Washington and its partners should lay the groundwork for a civilian-led transition in Sudan now, even as fighting between the army and the RSF continues.

COMMENTARY

The Sahel’s Geopolitical Reset and Russia’s Strategic Opening

Analysis of how the Sahel’s break with France and ECOWAS opened space for Russian influence, and the limits Moscow faces.

COMMENTARY

The Rising Islamic State Threat to Europe and the West

Analysis of Islamic State’s resurgence and external operations, including the role of African affiliates in the Sahel as bases for plotting against Europe.

COMMENTARY

MINURSO’s Future: What the Security Council’s Choice May Reveal

Analysis of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) vote on whether to renew the UN monitoring mission in Western Sahara, officially known as the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

PRESS RELEASE

Ninth Annual Consultative Meeting of the UN Peacebuilding Commission and the AU PSC: Joint Communiqué

AU press release publishing the joint communiqué from the October 21 meeting in New York.

COMMENTARY

The Sahel’s Geopolitical Reset and Russia’s Strategic Opening

Analysis of how the Sahel’s break with France and ECOWAS opened space for Russian influence, and the limits Moscow faces.

COMMENTARY

The Rising Islamic State Threat to Europe and the West

Analysis of Islamic State’s resurgence and external operations, including the role of African affiliates in the Sahel as bases for plotting against Europe.

COMMENTARY

MINURSO’s Future: What the Security Council’s Choice May Reveal

Analysis of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) vote on whether to renew the UN monitoring mission in Western Sahara, officially known as the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).

COMMENTARY

How Algeria’s Rupture with the UAE Could Roil the Region

International Crisis Group analysis explains why Algiers cut ties with Abu Dhabi in September and how the rivalry could destabilize North Africa and the Sahel.

REPORT

Middle East and North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan Economic Update

The World Bank’s regional economic update tracking growth, inflation, and fiscal pressures across MENA under the shadow of the regional war. Included as context.

POLICY ANALYSIS

The AfDB and the New African Financial Architecture

ODI analysis of the African Development Bank’s role in an emerging African financial architecture as Western aid declines and debt pressures mount.

COMMENTARY

Turkey’s New Deal on Mediterranean Maritime Boundaries with Libya Is Exacerbating Issues with Greece and the EU

Deutsche Welle examines how the HoR’s ratification of the Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum deepens tensions with Greece and complicates EU policy in the Eastern Mediterranean.

COMMENTARY

Libya’s Maritime Deal with Turkey May Be the Key to Reunification

Atlantic Council commentary argues that the HoR’s unanimous October 20 ratification of the 2019 Turkey-Libya maritime memorandum, after Aguila Saleh’s removal and amid Saddam Haftar’s rise, signals a new east-west alignment, even as Greece condemns the deal.

REPORT

Mali: “No One is Spared” War Crimes Committed by the Malian Army and Foreign Allied Forces along the Mauritanian Border

Amnesty International report on Mali, documentation of civilian killings by Malian forces and Wagner.

PRESS RELEASE

Following Contentious Debate, Security Council Fails to Adopt Resolution to Extend UN Mission for Referendum in Western Sahara

Official summary of the October 30 twin vetoes, with the UK expressing “immense disappointment” at Russia’s veto and Moscow arguing the US text “could have reversed the entire resolution process.”

COMMENTARY

Libya’s maritime deal with Turkey may be the key to reunification

Atlantic Council analysis on Libya’s maritime deal with Turkey.

COMMENTARY

Algeria’s New Bid for Regional Influence

Sabina Henneberg argues that the break with the UAE reflects Algeria’s push to reassert itself regionally, with consequences for Western Sahara diplomacy and pending Chevron and ExxonMobil gas deals.

COMMENTARY

Western Sahara Embraces Morocco

David Schenker argues that recent elections in Western Sahara demonstrated local support for Moroccan sovereignty while Algeria continues to press for independence.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

ISPI

ISPI MED: Rome Mediterranean Dialogues

ISPI’s MED Dialogues platform, which hosts its annual conference and analysis on Mediterranean and MENA politics. Nov 19-21.

World Bank

Annual Central Bank Conference on Development Economics in MENAAP

World Bank conference with regional central banks on development economics in the MENA, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. March 25-26, 2027.

Atlantic Council

2026 Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics

The Transatlantic Forum on December 11, 2026 on GeoEconomics is an annual flagship convening focused on issues at the nexus of economics, finance, foreign policy, and national security.

Chatham House

Competition Policy Conference 2026

Chatham House conference on competition policy, addressing market regulation and economic governance with relevance to African and MENA economies.

Chatham House

The Middle East and North Africa: Shaping the Next Decade

Chatham House’s flagship MENA conference on the political, security, and economic forces likely to shape the region over the next ten years.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

WEBINAR

General Dagvin R. M. Anderson on US Strategy and Security in Africa

Event with the commander of US Africa Command on Washington’s security strategy for the continent, including counterterrorism in the Sahel, competition with Russia and China, and partnerships in North Africa.

PODCAST

Can Africa Maximize Its Global Influence?

Chatham House’s weekly podcast discusses how African states can leverage great-power competition and a fragmenting international order to increase their influence.

WEBINAR

The Lake Chad Basin: Restoring Regional Security Cooperation

Chatham House event on frictions among Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria in the fight against Boko Haram and ISWAP. Check the date, since the listing shows both September 28 and October 28.

PODCAST

Chad and Central African Republic: In the Shockwave of the War in Sudan

Enrica Picco with Charles Bouëssel and Fulbert Ngodji on the risk of Sudan’s war spreading across the region.

WEBINAR

War in the Middle East: What are the economic consequences for Africa?

IRIS webinar explaining the war in the Middle East, and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and how it’s impacting the economies of many African countries.

WEBINAR

IMF Panel Explores Path to Africa’s Economic Growth

IMF discussion on Africa’s economic development.

Job Opportunities

Arab Monetary Fund

Economist, Maghreb

The Economist is responsible for providing high-level economic analysis and policy advice in the context of economic surveillance and the follow up of economic reform programs, conducting in-depth assessment of the eligibility of member countries in the context of evaluating loan requests.

Danish Refugee Council

WASH and Infrastructure Coordinator, Khartoum, Sudan

Leads DRC’s water, sanitation, hygiene, and infrastructure programming in Khartoum.

UNICEF

Deputy Representative, Operations, D-1, Port Sudan, Sudan

Senior leadership role overseeing UNICEF Sudan’s operations.

UNICEF

Deputy Representative, Programmes, D-1, Port Sudan, Sudan

Senior leadership role overseeing UNICEF Sudan’s program portfolio.

Danish Refugee Council

Protection Cluster Co-Coordinator, Khartoum, Sudan

Co-leads humanitarian protection coordination across agencies in Sudan.

Danish Refugee Council

Support Service Team Leader, Gedaref, Sudan

Leads support services for DRC’s operations in eastern Sudan.

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