North Africa Regional Outlook: September 23, 2026
From Sudan’s deepening war and diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict, to Algeria’s widening regional rift with the UAE and Morocco’s tensions ahead of elections, while Russia, China, and the United States expand their strategic engagement across the continent

Dear Friend,

This week in North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel: From Sudan’s deepening war and diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict, to Algeria’s widening regional rift with the UAE and Morocco’s tensions ahead of elections, while Russia, China, and the United States expand their strategic engagement across the continent—explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel.

Hafed Al Ghwell
Director Emeritus and Senior Advisor
North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Sahel Program

September 23, 2026

Read the North Africa Weekly on LinkedIn or join the conversation on X: @StimsonNAfrica

From the North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Sahel Program

Events, commentaries and updates from the Stimson Center.

A Conversation with the Ambassadors of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger: The Sahel at a Crossroads

Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are reshaping the Sahel’s political and security landscape. Watch the Stimson Center event of a rare joint conversation with the ambassadors of all three Alliance of Sahel States members to discuss regional realignment, security, and future international engagement.

The Sino-Moroccan Green Partnership in the Shadow of the Iran War

Amanda Chen, Research Fellow at the ChinaMed Project of the Torino World Affairs Institute writes on China’s green investments in Morocco are reshaping trade, energy, and supply chain dynamics as the Iran War exposes new vulnerabilities across global markets.

Algeria as a Geopolitical Actor: Strategic Dynamics and Regional Implications

In a recent Issue Brief, Dario Cristiani, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, examines Algeria’s constrained geopolitical influence amid rising competition, internal stability, and evolving Mediterranean partnerships.

A Conversation with Ms. Amina Benkhadra: Morocco’s Energy Future and Strategic Resources

Morocco is advancing its energy and minerals sectors to strengthen security and drive the green transition. Watch Amina Benkhadra, Director General of the National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines (ONHYM), explore strategy and partnerships at the Stimson Center.

On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

UN News

Human Rights Chief Türk Renews Call for End to Spiraling Sudan War

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk urged an end to attacks on civilians in markets, hospitals and fuel stations, noting more than six million people displaced internally and another 4.5 million forced across Sudan’s borders, and called for an immediate ceasefire, an end to foreign involvement, and a return to inclusive civilian rule.

Sudan Tribune

Sudan Army Recaptures 11 Areas in North Kordofan from RSF

The SAF general command said troops retook 11 areas near El Obeid, including Kajmar and Sharara, after fierce fighting and pursued RSF fighters toward Darfur.

Reuters

Al-Zara Gold Mine Collapse Kills Dozens in RSF-Held West Kordofan

AP reporting on Russia Africa Corps’ decisive role in ending the Niger coup attempt, consolidating Moscow’s position as the security guarantor for the Sahel’s military governments.

Council on Foreign Relations

Sudanese Air Defenses Intercept Drones Near Ethiopian Border Dams

Sudanese air defenses shot down attack drones targeting the Upper Atbara, Setit, and Khashm al-Girba hydroelectric and irrigation dams, with no casualties reported.

The National

What Is Behind Washington’s Changing Diplomatic Tactics in Sudan’s Civil War?

Analysis of a US-driven UN Security Council move giving members a month to weigh extending the Darfur arms embargo Sudan-wide, as the RSF accepted a 90-day truce but rejected withdrawal terms while Burhan vowed to keep fighting.

Radio Dabanga

UN Envoy Presses Sudan Leader on Truce and Prisoner Exchange

UN Personal Envoy Pekka Haavisto pushed SAF leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on a humanitarian truce and a prisoner exchange as part of renewed diplomatic efforts.

Al Jazeera

Tunisian Protesters Demand Release of Four Sumud Activists

Protesters in Tunis rallied for four Global Sumud Flotilla activists, one around 35 days into a hunger strike, amid wider anti-Saied mobilization over repression and worsening economic conditions.

Al-Monitor

Tunisia’s Utility Crisis Fuels Opposition Momentum Against Saied

Reporting on how Tunisia’s water, electricity, and phosphate crises are giving momentum to opposition forces challenging President Kais Saied’s grip on power.

Al Jazeera

Morocco’s Ruling Allies Turn on Each Other Before Election Campaign Begins

Governing coalition partners traded accusations and a leaked recording exposed tensions ahead of the September 23 parliamentary vote, with 1,850 candidate lists and 7,288 candidates filed by the September 9 close and a 13-day campaign running September 10–22.

The North Africa Post

Amnesty International Decries Algerian Regime Plans to Resume Executions

Amnesty urged Algeria to establish a moratorium after President Tebboune ordered the Penal Code amended to reintroduce the death penalty for intentionally starting fires.

The North Africa Post

Spain’s Far Right Seeks to Europeanize Bilateral Dispute with Morocco over Occupied Enclaves

Coverage of Spanish far-right efforts to internationalize the Ceuta and Melilla enclave dispute with Morocco.

Egypt Independent

Egypt Bans Social Media Accounts for Under-13s and Mandates ‘Safe Mode’ for Ages 13–15

Egyptian authorities announced a digital crackdown barring under-13s from holding independent social media accounts and requiring restricted access for teenagers.

Egypt Independent

Sisi Warns Against Mounting Conspiracy to Destabilize Egypt

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi warned that schemes to destabilize the state remain an ongoing threat.

World Bank

Parlons Développement: Awakening a Culture of Debate and Dialogue on Development Topics for Moroccan Youth

World Bank feature on an initiative to cultivate a culture of debate and dialogue on development issues among Moroccan youth, part of broader efforts to engage the country’s young population in policy discussions.

To Vima

Global Maritime Law Experts Gather in Athens Next Week

Reports on an upcoming gathering of international maritime law experts in Athens, relevant to Eastern Mediterranean disputes involving Libya, Egypt, and regional maritime boundaries.

Associated Press

Fewer Migrants Are Reaching Europe by Sea, but Deaths Persist

AP reporting on the decline in Mediterranean migrant sea arrivals to Europe alongside the continuing toll of deaths on the crossing, including routes from North Africa.

Greek Reporter

Migrant Boat Sinks Off Crete

Reports on a migrant boat sinking off the coast of Crete, part of the ongoing Eastern Mediterranean migration crisis with departure points in North Africa.

The Maritime Executive

A Divided Libya Supports Both Ukrainian and Russian Naval Operations

Geospatial intelligence firms tracked a Russian convoy from Baltiysk to Tobruk carrying armored vehicles whose end-user is uncertain (LNA, RSF, or Africa Corps), while a Ukrainian SBU drone detachment at Misrata Air Base has claimed attacks on Russian and dark-fleet shipping in the Mediterranean, making a divided Libya a base for both sides.

Le Monde

Trump Seeks to Play Peacemaker in a Divided Libya

Analysis of the US-backed Boulos initiative to unify Libya’s rival executives, examining the Trump administration’s diplomatic push and the controversy surrounding its reported provisions.

Ekathimerini

Greece, Cyprus, Egypt Test War Readiness

Reports on a joint military readiness exercise involving Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt, reflecting deepening Eastern Mediterranean security cooperation amid regional tensions.

Libya Herald

Libya and China Discuss Expanding Economic and Investment Cooperation Across Several Sectors

Libyan and Chinese officials discussed broadening economic and investment cooperation across multiple sectors to support Libya’s development, reflecting Beijing’s growing engagement with Tripoli.

The Times of Israel

Egypt to Build $1 Billion AI Data Center with Nvidia Tech as US Squeezes Out China

Reports on Egypt’s plan to build a $1 billion AI data center using Nvidia technology, framed within Washington’s push to limit Chinese technology access across the region.

Breaking Defense

Turkey’s MKE Launches First Company in Egypt

Turkey’s state defense manufacturer MKE established its first company in Egypt, marking a notable deepening of Turkish-Egyptian defense industrial cooperation after years of tension.

The National

No Future for al-Burhan or Dagalo in Sudan, Says US Envoy

Reports on a US envoy’s statement that neither SAF leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan nor RSF commander Hemedti should have a role in Sudan’s political future, signaling a shift in Washington’s approach.

Associated Press

Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Houthis, and the Battle over Red Sea Shipping

AP reporting on escalating Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping and oil, with implications for Saudi Arabia, Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues, and regional maritime security.

The Economist

In Morocco, Scandal Is Weakening the King’s Shaky Rule

Analysis arguing that a growing scandal is undermining King Mohammed VI’s already fragile authority ahead of Morocco’s September 23 parliamentary elections.

Reuters

Morocco’s Political Parties Battle Youth Disenchantment Ahead of Election

Reports on how Moroccan political parties are struggling to engage a disenchanted youth electorate ahead of the September 23 legislative vote, amid widespread frustration over economic conditions and governance.

Business Insider Africa

Saudi Arabia Finally Gets US Green Light for $24.3 Billion F-35 Jets as Morocco Also Eyes Deal

Reports on US approval of a major F-35 fighter jet sale to Saudi Arabia, noting Morocco’s parallel interest in advanced US military hardware amid regional arms competition.

Business Insider Africa

Algeria Closes Its Airspace to UAE-Registered Aircraft as Diplomatic Feud Deepens

Algeria barred UAE-registered aircraft from its airspace as the diplomatic rupture between Algiers and Abu Dhabi escalated, part of a widening rift over regional rivalries.

Il Foglio

A Consignment of Russian Weapons Arrives in Libya

Reports on the arrival of a Russian weapons shipment in Libya, corroborating tracking of the Baltiysk-to-Tobruk convoy and underscoring Moscow’s continued military buildup in eastern Libya.

Agenzia Nova

Russian Convoy with Military Vehicles Arrives in Tobruk, Libya

Reports on a Russian convoy carrying military vehicles docking at Tobruk, part of Moscow’s ongoing resupply of its foothold in Haftar-controlled eastern Libya.

Business Insider Africa

Putin-Backed ‘Russian Houses’ Find Base in 8 African Countries as Ukraine Warns of Influence Operations

Reports on the expansion of Russian cultural and influence centers (“Russian Houses”) across eight African countries, with Ukraine warning they serve Moscow’s information and influence operations.

BBC News

Russia to open more cultural centres in Africa as it seeks to broaden influence

BBC News coverage of Russia expanding influence in Africa through cultural centers.

Business Insider Africa

Middle East War Wipes Out 36 Million Tonnes of LNG as Buyers Hunt for Alternatives

Reports on how the Iran war and Hormuz disruption erased 36 million tonnes of LNG supply, driving buyers toward North African and other alternative gas sources.

Fox News

US-Backed Agreement Deepens Ties as Officials Address Saudi Arabia’s Growing Houthi Threat to Global Shipping

Reports on a US-backed security agreement addressing the Houthi threat to global shipping, with implications for Red Sea and Suez Canal security.

Al Jazeera

US Approves $414 Million Uranium Investment in Niger Two Years After Troops Left

Reports on US approval of a $414 million uranium investment in Niger, marking a significant economic reengagement two years after American troops withdrew from the country.

Business Insider Africa

Ghana Cuts Fuel Exports to Burkina Faso and Mali as Domestic Demand Rises

Reports on Ghana reducing fuel exports to landlocked Burkina Faso and Mali amid rising domestic demand, compounding fuel supply pressures in the JNIM-blockaded Sahel.

The Guardian

Al-Qaeda and IS-Linked Violence in Africa’s Sahel Belt Set to Hit Record Levels This Year

Reports that jihadist violence linked to al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates across the Sahel is on track to reach record levels in 2026, underscoring the region’s deepening security crisis.

Le Monde

Algeria, by Breaking Diplomatic Relations with the UAE, Chooses Confrontation

Analysis of Algeria’s decision to sever diplomatic ties with the United Arab Emirates, framed as a deliberate choice of confrontation rooted in competing regional rivalries.

Le Monde

In Tunisia, Growing Concern over the Country’s Relations with Algeria

Analysis of mounting concern in Tunisia that the country is falling into political and economic dependence on neighboring Algeria under President Kais Saied.

CNN

Ukraine and Russia Take Their Drone War to Mali and Libya

Reports on how the Russia-Ukraine conflict has extended into North Africa and the Sahel, with Ukrainian drone operations targeting Russian assets in Libya and Mali.

Al-Monitor

MBS Visits Egypt as Houthi Attacks Escalate

Al-Monitor newsletter covering Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Egypt amid escalating Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping and their regional implications.

Al-Monitor

Algeria Pulls Sky News Arabia Accreditation Amid UAE Rift: What to Know

Reports on Algeria’s revocation of Sky News Arabia’s accreditation as part of its deepening rift with the UAE, which owns a stake in the broadcaster.

Al-Monitor

Fueled by Regional Rivalries, Algeria Severs Diplomatic Ties with UAE

Analysis of Algeria’s decision to cut diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, examining the regional rivalries and competing alignments driving the rupture.

Al-Monitor

Israel, Morocco Agree to Exchange Ambassadors, Open Embassies

Reports on an agreement between Israel and Morocco to exchange ambassadors and open embassies, marking a significant deepening of normalization under the Abraham Accords framework.

World Politics Review

Dangote’s Refinery IPO and Nigeria’s Oil Ambitions

Analysis of the planned IPO of Nigeria’s Dangote refinery and its implications for African energy markets, including fuel supply to the Sahel and East Africa.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

COMMENTARY

Resurgence of ransom in a distracted world

Stimson Center North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program Advisor and Director Emeritus Hafed Al Ghwell argues that a wave of Somali pirate hijackings in 2026, fueled by Houthi links, Al-Shabaab’s resurgence, ransom networks, and fragmented command between Puntland, Mogadishu, and foreign partners like Turkey, will become a durable business model unless coastal governance, illicit-finance controls, and naval priorities operate as one integrated security system.

COMMENTARY

How Russia Targets Its Messaging in the Global South

Atlantic Council analysis of Russia’s information and influence operations across the Global South, including Africa and the Sahel, examining Moscow’s messaging strategies.

COMMENTARY

The US Must Become Africa’s Partner on Technology and AI. It Can Do So with Soft Power.

Atlantic Council Analysis arguing that the US should position itself as Africa’s partner on technology and artificial intelligence, using soft power to counter Chinese and Russian influence on the continent.

REPORT

PISA 2025 Results, Volume I: Morocco Country Note

OECD country note presenting Morocco’s results in the 2025 PISA international education assessment, analyzing student performance in reading, mathematics, and science.

REPORT

The Multiple Faces of Downgrading and Upgrading in Morocco: A Comparative Analysis

Policy Center for the New Southresearch paper offering a comparative analysis of social mobility in Morocco, examining the dynamics of economic downgrading and upgrading across social groups.

REPORT

The Oxford Handbook of the Economy of Morocco

PCNS publication marking the Oxford Handbook of the Economy of Morocco, a comprehensive academic reference on the structure, performance, and prospects of the Moroccan economy.

REPORT

Violence Against Women and Economic Empowerment in Morocco: Why No Simple Correlation

Research paper examining the complex and non-linear relationship between women’s economic empowerment and their exposure to gender-based violence in Morocco.

ACADEMIC ARTICLE

Recent Articles

Academic journal listing of recent scholarship on North African politics, history, society, and economics across the Maghreb.

COMMENTARY

Nigeria and the Sahel: A Growing Security Divide

Al Jazeera analysis of the widening diplomatic rift between Nigeria and the AES states of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, which complicates their response to a shared cross-border security threat.

COMMENTARY

Could This Be the Deadliest Battle Yet Between ISSP and JNIM?

ACLED West Africa Senior Analyst Heni Nsaibia comments on emerging information from a remote region of Burkina Faso pointing to the deadliest battle so far between JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province.

COMMENTARY

Niger’s Capital Rocked by Failed Mutiny Attempt: Could Jihadist Groups Benefit?

Heni Nsaibia analyzes what Niger’s failed coup attempt means for its worsening security crisis and whether jihadist groups stand to gain.

COMMENTARY

Will Washington back the UN’s Libya roadmap with more than just rhetoric?

Atlantic Council’s Frank Talbot argues the US can take concrete measures to support Libya’s first national elections in over a decade.

COMMENTARY

US Minerals Diplomacy Tests Sahel Countries’ Partnership Choices

ISS Africa analysis argues US outreach to Bamako and Niamey is driven by critical-mineral interests, with Mali projected as Africa’s second-largest lithium producer and Niger holding roughly 454,000 tons of uranium reserves, recalibrating diplomacy around the AES.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Libya Elections Roadmap Undermined by Instability and Political Rivalries

Middle East Economic Survey assessment of the obstacles facing Libya’s election plans after rival factions signed a UN-facilitated agreement on August 30 on electoral laws and reforming the electoral body, with national elections planned within two years.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

Atlantic Council

2026 Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics

The Transatlantic Forum on December 11, 2026 on GeoEconomics is an annual flagship convening focused on issues at the nexus of economics, finance, foreign policy, and national security.

Chatham House

Competition Policy Conference 2026

Chatham House conference on competition policy, addressing market regulation and economic governance with relevance to African and MENA economies.

Policy Center for the New South

Dialogues Stratégiques, 21st Edition (October 29, 2026)

Policy Center for the New South and HEC Paris biannual geopolitical forum comparing Africa-Europe perspectives.

Chatham House

How Will Young Voters Shape Morocco’s Political Future?

Chatham House event examining the role of Morocco’s youth electorate in shaping the country’s political trajectory ahead of the September 23 elections.

Atlantic Council

Africa’s Advantage: Building National Value in a Global Mining Economy

Atlantic Council event on how African states, including Sahel producers, can capture greater value from their critical mineral and mining resources in the global economy.

OECD

Responsible Business Conduct in Morocco (October 2026)

OECD event on advancing responsible business conduct standards in Morocco, addressing corporate accountability, supply chains, and sustainable investment.

Georgetown University

Tunisia’s Fractured Transition in Comparative Perspective

Georgetown Center for Contemporary Arab Studies event on October 20 examining Tunisia’s democratic backsliding under President Kais Saied in comparative regional perspective.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

WEBINAR

War in the Middle East: What are the economic consequences for Africa?

IRIS webinar explaining the war in the Middle East, and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and how its impacting the economies of many African countries.

PODCAST

Shifting US perspectives on Africa: A conversation with Rep. Sara Jacobs

In this Brookings podcast episode, host Landry Signé sits with the Hon. Sara Jacobs, representative for California’s 51st district and ranking member of the Subcommittee on Africa of the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee.

PODCAST

UNGA 2026: How Africa is setting agendas amidst strained multilateral consensus

In this Brookings podcast, ahead of the 81st General Assembly of the United Nations, host Landry Signé is joined by the UN’s Under-Secretary-General and Special Adviser on Africa, Ahunna Eziakonwa.

PODCAST

Congress and the Africa agenda: A conversation with Rep. Gregory Meeks

Host Landry Signé visits Capitol Hill to talk with the Hon. Gregory Meeks, representative for New York’s 5th Congressional District and ranking member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

WEBINAR

Pathways to Partnership, Prosperity, and Security in the Sahel

Atlantic Council Africa Center and Policy Center for the New Southconversation on the current Sahel situation and US reengagement options focused on security, prosperity, and partnership.

PODCAST

The Geopolitics of Mining in the Sahel and Myanmar, ft. Critical Risk Team’s George McLeod

Discussion of shifting geopolitical dynamics affecting mining companies across Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

VIDEO REPORT

Morocco Floods Sweep Through Khenifra and Azilal

Al Jazeera coverage of floodwaters swept through the Atlas Mountains and swamped homes and streets in central Morocco after heavy thunderstorms.

WEBINAR

Pathways to Partnership, Prosperity, and Security in the Sahel

PCNS interview accompanying its joint work with the Atlantic Council on the current Sahel situation, examining US reengagement options and pathways to security, prosperity, and partnership in the region.

WEBINAR

After the Mali Attacks: What Way Forward for the Sahel and West Africa?

Online ECFR event with EU Sahel Special Representative João Cravinho, ISS’s Djiby Sow, OECD/SWAC’s Nana Touré, and ECFR’s Suzanne Tisserand.

Job Opportunities

Stimson Center

Senior Fellow and Director, North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel

Stimson Center seeks an individual to serve as Senior Fellow and Director of the North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel program.

Norwegian Refugee Council 

Regional Head of Operational Support Central and West Africa

Senior program-leadership role covering the Sahel within the West and Central Africa region.

ACTED

Project Development Officer, Port Sudan, Sudan (Job)

Supports program development and grant management for ACTED’s humanitarian operations in Sudan. Posted September 18, 2026; closes October 18, 2026.

Concordis International

Security Officer, Nyala, South Darfur, Sudan (Job)

Manages security for Concordis International’s operations in Nyala, South Darfur. Open to Sudanese nationals only. Posted September 17, 2026; close September 30, 2026.

Concordis International

Finance, HR, and Logistics Officer, Nyala, South Darfur, Sudan (Job)

Oversees finance, human resources, and logistics for Concordis International’s operations in Nyala, South Darfur. Open to Sudanese nationals only. Posted September 17, 2026.

UNICEF

Operations Manager, NOC, Algiers, Algeria (Job, re-advertisement)

Leads efficient, cost-effective, and secure operations for UNICEF’s Algeria country office of roughly 33 staff, with a main office in Algiers and a field office in Tindouf, overseeing finance, ICT, supply, and administration. Closes October 5, 2026.

Arab Monetary Fund

Economist, Maghreb

The Economist is responsible for providing high-level economic analysis and policy advice in the context of economic surveillance and the follow up of economic reform programs, conducting in-depth assessment of the eligibility of member countries in the context of evaluating loans’ requests.

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