North Africa Regional Outlook: October 7, 2026
From Sudan’s war edging toward partition, to Morocco’s post-election dynamics, while Africa’s critical minerals race intensifies amid growing US-China competition

Dear Friend,

This week in North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel: From Sudan’s war edging toward partition, to Morocco’s post-election dynamics, while Africa’s critical minerals race intensifies amid growing US-China competition—explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel.

Hafed Al Ghwell
Director Emeritus and Senior Advisor
North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Sahel Program

October 7, 2026

Read the North Africa Weekly on LinkedIn or join the conversation on X: @StimsonNAfrica

From the North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Sahel Program

Events, commentaries and updates from the Stimson Center.

The Sahel’s Humanitarian Emergency

Join Stimson’s North Africa, Mediterranean, and the Sahel Program to examine the Sahel’s humanitarian emergency, shifting external partnerships, eroding civilian protection, access constraints, and U.S. policy implications. October 13.

The Game of Middle Powers in North Africa

Stefan Lukas and Yusuf Can write on How Russia, the Gulf states, and Turkey are reshaping North Africa through security partnerships, investment, and political influence.

Algeria as a Geopolitical Actor: Strategic Dynamics and Regional Implications

In a recent Issue Brief, Dario Cristiani, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, examines Algeria’s constrained geopolitical influence amid rising competition, internal stability, and evolving Mediterranean partnerships.

A Conversation with Ms. Amina Benkhadra: Morocco’s Energy Future and Strategic Resources

Morocco is advancing its energy and minerals sectors to strengthen security and drive the green transition. Watch Amina Benkhadra, Director General of the National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines (ONHYM), explore strategy and partnerships at the Stimson Center.

On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

Reuters

US Ceasefire Plan for Sudan Could Lead to Libya-Style Partition, Adviser Says

Reports that a US-backed ceasefire proposal for Sudan risks entrenching a de facto partition between SAF- and RSF-controlled zones, mirroring Libya’s east-west split, according to an adviser involved in the talks.

Archaeology Magazine

Greek Settlers Turned Libya’s Coast into a Port

Feature on archaeological findings showing how ancient Greek settlers developed Libya’s Cyrenaican coast into a maritime and trading hub.

The National

Egypt Seeks Greater Share of Nile Water Amid Rising Tension with Ethiopia

Reports on Egypt’s push for a larger allocation of Nile waters as its dispute with Ethiopia over the GERD escalates, raising the risk of regional confrontation.

Reuters

Six Years After Mining Reboot, Egypt’s Gold Ambitions Start to Take Shape

Reports that Egypt’s gold sector is gaining traction six years after regulatory reforms, with new exploration and production positioning the country as an emerging gold producer.

Deutsche Welle

Spain Grows Fruit and Vegetables for Europe but Is Running Out of Water

Feature on water scarcity in Spain’s agricultural regions, with implications for Mediterranean food supply chains and climate stress shared across North Africa.

Deutsche Welle

Morocco’s Center-Right PAM Leads in Parliamentary Election

Reports the Authenticity and Modernity Party’s lead in Morocco’s September 23 parliamentary vote, held on record-low turnout.

Deutsche Welle

Decolonizing Perceptions About Africa

Feature examining efforts to challenge and reframe Western perceptions and narratives about the African continent.

InfoMigrants

More Than 250 Migrants Rescued Off Mauritania

Reports the rescue of over 250 migrants off the Mauritanian coast, underscoring the growing use of the dangerous Atlantic route toward the Canary Islands.

Business Insider Africa

Tanzania Eases Visa Access for Travelers from US and Russia, Keeps Restrictions on Nigeria

Reports Tanzania’s selective visa liberalization, easing access for American and Russian travelers while maintaining restrictions on Nigerian nationals.

INTERPOL

INTERPOL Report Finds AI Linked to More Than Half of Cybercrime in Africa

INTERPOL report documenting that AI-enabled tools now feature in more than half of cybercrime cases across Africa, highlighting a fast-growing security threat.

Business Insider Africa

UN Steps In to Help Nigeria, Guinea, Zimbabwe and Three Others Get More Value from Critical Minerals

Reports on a UN initiative to help six African states capture more value from their critical mineral resources through local processing and stronger governance.

Reuters

Can Africa Seize Its Moment in the Race for Critical Minerals?

Commentary by Andy Home assessing whether African producers can move up the critical-minerals value chain amid intensifying US-China competition for supply.

Zawya

UN Critical Minerals Initiatives Target African Value Addition as African Mining Week 2026 Approaches

Press release on UN efforts to promote value addition in African critical-mineral production ahead of African Mining Week 2026.

World Bank

Made Possible by Minerals: What It Takes to Power Modern Life

Immersive feature on the role of critical minerals in powering modern technology and the energy transition, with attention to African producers.

Mining.com

UN to Help Six Nations Get More Value from Critical Minerals

Reports on the UN program to support six countries, including several African states, in capturing greater economic value from their mineral resources.

African Development Bank

KOAFEC: African Development Bank Presents Five Regional Critical Minerals Projects to Korean Investors

Reports on the AfDB presenting five regional critical-minerals projects to South Korean investors at the Korea-Africa Economic Cooperation forum.

The Libya Observer

South Korea Explores Oil Refining Cooperation with Libya

Reports on South Korean interest in cooperating with Libya on oil refining, part of Seoul’s broader energy and economic outreach to Africa.

Lead Story

South Korea to Boost Artificial Intelligence Ties with Africa

Reports on South Korea’s push to deepen AI cooperation and investment ties across the African continent.

Al-Monitor

Trump’s Africa Adviser Denies Libya Plan Would Entrench Rival Families

Reports on US adviser Massad Boulos denying that the US-backed Libya power-sharing initiative would entrench the Haftar and Dbeibah family networks.

African Business

Book Review: The Shadow Politics of US-Africa Relations

Review of a book examining the often-hidden dynamics, interests, and power structures shaping US policy toward Africa.

The Libya Observer

Asharq Al-Awsat: Parliamentary Moves Highlight Signs of Power Struggle Among Haftar’s Sons

Reports on parliamentary maneuvering in eastern Libya seen as evidence of a succession struggle among Khalifa Haftar’s sons.

Al Jazeera

For Libya, the Hormuz Crisis Can Be a Trap or an Opportunity

Opinion piece arguing that the Strait of Hormuz disruption presents Libya with both economic risks and a chance to position itself as an alternative energy supplier to Europe.

Bloomberg

Morocco Names Marrakesh Mayor as Country’s First Female Premier

Reports that Morocco appointed the mayor of Marrakesh as its first female prime minister following the September 23 election, a historic milestone in Moroccan politics.

Reuters

Spain Approves Citizenship for Sahrawis Born Under Spanish Rule

Reports that Spain’s parliament approved a path to citizenship for Western Saharans born under Spanish colonial rule before 1977.

The Conversation

Morocco’s Deadly Wall Across Western Sahara: Why the 2,700km Berm Was Built and the Damage It Does

Analysis of the history, purpose, and humanitarian and environmental impact of Morocco’s defensive sand berm dividing Western Sahara.

Bloomberg

Morocco Party Backed by Soccer Czar Leads in Preliminary Vote Results

Reports the PAM’s lead in Morocco’s preliminary election results, noting the party’s association with billionaire and football federation head Fouzi Lekjaa.

Smart Water Magazine

OPEC Fund Approves $190 Million for Water Projects in Morocco and Azerbaijan

Reports the OPEC Fund’s approval of $190 million to finance water infrastructure projects in Morocco and Azerbaijan.

To Vima

Global Maritime Law Experts Gather in Athens Next Week

Reports on an upcoming gathering of international maritime law experts in Athens, relevant to Eastern Mediterranean disputes involving Libya and Egypt.

The Rio Times

Tunisia Drug Law Reform 2026

Explainer on Tunisia’s reform of its drug laws, examining the shift in approach to possession and sentencing. Aggregator content; verify against primary sources.

Greek Reporter

Migrant Boat Sinks Off Crete

Reports on a migrant boat sinking off Crete, part of the ongoing Eastern Mediterranean migration crisis with departure points in North Africa.

The Maritime Executive

A Divided Libya Supports Both Ukrainian and Russian Naval Operations

Geospatial firms tracked a Russian convoy from Baltiysk to Tobruk carrying armored vehicles of uncertain end-use, while a Ukrainian SBU drone detachment at Misrata has claimed attacks on Russian and dark-fleet shipping, making a divided Libya a base for both sides.

Le Monde

Trump Seeks to Play Peacemaker in a Divided Libya

Analysis of the US-backed Boulos initiative to unify Libya’s rival executives, examining the Trump administration’s diplomatic push and the controversy around its reported provisions.

Ekathimerini

Greece, Cyprus, Egypt Test War Readiness

Reports on a joint military readiness exercise involving Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt, reflecting deepening Eastern Mediterranean security cooperation.

Libya Herald

Libya and China Discuss Expanding Economic and Investment Cooperation Across Several Sectors

Libyan and Chinese officials discussed broadening economic and investment cooperation to support Libya’s development, reflecting Beijing’s growing engagement with Tripoli.

The Times of Israel

Egypt to Build $1 Billion AI Data Center with Nvidia Tech as US Squeezes Out China

Reports on Egypt’s plan to build a $1 billion AI data center using Nvidia technology, framed within Washington’s push to limit Chinese technology access in the region.

Breaking Defense

Turkey’s MKE Launches First Company in Egypt

Turkey’s state defense manufacturer MKE established its first company in Egypt, a notable deepening of Turkish-Egyptian defense industrial cooperation.

The National

No Future for al-Burhan or Dagalo in Sudan, Says US Envoy

Reports on a US envoy’s statement that neither SAF leader al-Burhan nor RSF commander Hemedti should have a role in Sudan’s political future.

Associated Press

Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Houthis, and the Battle over Red Sea Shipping

AP reporting on escalating Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping and oil, with implications for Saudi Arabia, Egypt’s Suez Canal revenues, and regional maritime security.

The Economist

In Morocco, Scandal Is Weakening the King’s Shaky Rule

Analysis arguing that a growing scandal is undermining King Mohammed VI’s authority ahead of Morocco’s September 23 elections.

Al Jazeera

Morocco’s Youth Take Gen Z Protest Demands to the Polls

Young candidates campaigned ahead of the September 23 vote, almost a year after the GenZ 212 protests, hoping to channel street frustration over health, education, and jobs into participation at the ballot box.

The National

Morocco’s PAM Wins Election as Coalition Talks Loom

The Authenticity and Modernity Party won 97 of 395 seats, with the RNI on 66 and Istiqlal on 65, as Interior Minister Abdelouafi Laftit announced preliminary results and coalition negotiations began.

AFP

Morocco’s Ruling Coalition Dominates Low-Turnout Parliament Election

The outgoing coalition parties held their dominance and the Islamist PJD took 54 seats, in a vote held weeks after tens of thousands of mostly young Moroccans rushed into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta.

The Jerusalem Post

Authenticity and Modernity Party Wins Morocco Vote, Islamists Return to Opposition

Frames the result as the PJD leading the opposition again five years after the realignment that removed it from power, quoting a local analyst on the challenge of rebuilding citizens’ confidence.

Africanews

Morocco: Mothers of Detained GenZ Protesters Demand Their Release

About 30 mothers gathered outside parliament in Rabat to demand the release of sons held since the GenZ 212 protests, with the detainees’ support committee saying nearly 750 young people remain in prison.

Al Jazeera

Moroccan Intelligence Uses Surveillance to ‘Silence’ Journalists: Amnesty

Reports Amnesty’s accusation that the DGST used Pegasus spyware, hidden microphones, and pre-infected phones against journalists and rights defenders, with Secretary-General Agnès Callamard saying Morocco “has wholly embraced techno-authoritarian practices.”

Reuters

Soldiers and Mercenaries Killed at Least 34 Civilians in Mali, Amnesty Report Says

Reports seven incidents between June 2023 and December 2025 in which victims were shot, had their throats cut, or were burned alive, with Amnesty saying it sent its findings to Malian authorities on August 3 and received no reply.

allAfrica

Mali Army and Russian Fighters Accused of Killing Dozens of Civilians

Adds that the Amnesty report documents two drone strikes that killed at least 23 civilians including five children, based on interviews with 119 refugees from the Ségou, Timbuktu, and Mopti regions.

Africanews

Tunisia President Softens ‘Fake News’ Decree After Criticism by Rights Groups

President Kais Saied amended the 2022 cybercrime Decree 54 so first-time offenses no longer carry prison terms and the maximum for a repeat offense drops to six months from five years.

The North Africa Post

Tunisia Moves to Restrict Imports in Echo of Algeria’s Failed Policies

Reports that on September 23 Saied ordered the prime minister and central bank governor to rationalize imports and cut energy dependence. The outlet is strongly pro-Moroccan, so treat its framing as opinion.

Al-Monitor

Algeria Moves to Restore Death Penalty for Arson: What to Know

Parliament passed an amendment allowing executions for arson after wildfires killed 12 people, a move that would end a 30-year moratorium, with FLN and Islamist deputies backing it and rights groups objecting.

Algérie Presse Service

High Council for National Scientific Community Abroad Hails Tebboune’s Support for Algeria’s Experts

State-media coverage of President Tebboune’s outreach to the scientific diaspora, useful for tracking official messaging rather than as independent reporting.

Arab News

Egypt’s Economy Proves Resilient Despite Regional Turmoil, IMF Says

The IMF expects Egypt’s growth to moderate to 4.4% in FY2026/27 and says reforms under the program rebuilt reserves and helped Egypt absorb the shock of the Iran-Israel-US war.

CairoScene

Egypt’s Economy Grows 5% in Q3 as IMF Sees Improving Sentiment

Public debt is projected at 91.1% of GDP with gross financing needs around 40% of GDP, and by August the sovereign risk premium had fallen to its lowest since 2014.

Bloomberg

Senegal Hopes to Complete Debt Revamp Within Months, Faye Says

President Faye told France 24 that securing board approval for the $2.2 billion IMF program and restructuring debt under a streamlined G20 Common Framework are his top priorities.

Mada Masr

Ethiopia Accuses Sudan of Backing Opposition; Military Opens Road to West Kordofan; China on Sudan’s Coast

The army cleared the last major RSF defensive positions in North Kordofan, an RSF drone struck a University of Kordofan dormitory in El Obeid on October 1, and UAE and Sudanese delegations clashed at the UN General Assembly.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

COMMENTARY

Why Africa’s future will not be written in Manhattan

Stimson Center North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program Advisor and Director Emeritus Hafed Al Ghwell argues that Africa’s annual UN demands for Security Council seats, reparations, and debt relief keep stalling against a P5-controlled system, so the continent will gain real bargaining power by building its own institutions, including the AU Peace Fund, the African Credit Rating Agency, domestic mineral processing, and the AfCFTA.

COMMENTARY

Turkey, Haftar, and Libya: From Proxy War to Competitive Diplomacy

Analysis of Turkey’s evolving Libya policy, tracing the shift from backing opposing sides in the civil war to pragmatic engagement with Khalifa Haftar’s camp.

REPORT

World Bank Report: Morocco Economic Monitor

World Bank’s Morocco Economic Monitor, tracking the country’s macroeconomic situation, growth, and fiscal outlook.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Africa Needs Better Investment, Not Just More Investment

Policy brief arguing that the quality, structure, and governance of investment in Africa matter more than sheer volume for sustainable development.

COMMENTARY

Egypt’s Diplomatic Balancing Act: Iran, the UAE, Gaza, Israel, and the USForeign Policy Analysis of Egypt’s effort to balance competing relationships with Iran, the UAE, Israel, and the US amid the Gaza war and Houthi threats to regional shipping

BOOK

Development Economics and Finance in Africa: Households, Firms and Government

Academic book examining development economics and finance across Africa at the household, firm, and government levels.

REPORT

Parlons Développement: Awakening a Culture of Debate and Dialogue on Development Topics for Moroccan Youth

World Bank feature on an initiative to cultivate debate and dialogue on development issues among Moroccan youth.

COMMENTARY

The Shifting Foundations of Political Islam in Algeria

IFRI analysis examining how political Islam in Algeria is evolving, including the role of Islamist parties in the country’s shifting political landscape.

COMMENTARY

Will Washington back the UN’s Libya roadmap with more than just rhetoric?

Atlantic Council’s Frank Talbot argues the US can take concrete measures to support Libya’s first national elections in over a decade.

COMMENTARY

US Minerals Diplomacy Tests Sahel Countries’ Partnership Choices

ISS Africa analysis argues US outreach to Bamako and Niamey is driven by critical-mineral interests, with Mali projected as Africa’s second-largest lithium producer and Niger holding roughly 454,000 tons of uranium reserves, recalibrating diplomacy around the AES.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Libya Elections Roadmap Undermined by Instability and Political Rivalries

Middle East Economic Survey assessment of the obstacles facing Libya’s election plans after rival factions signed a UN-facilitated agreement on August 30 on electoral laws and reforming the electoral body, with national elections planned within two years.

COMMENTARY

Notes on Morocco’s Legislative Election Results

Argues the PAM won almost by default, gaining only 10 seats while the RNI lost 36 and Istiqlal 16, producing the smallest winning plurality since 2007 and a highly fragmented parliament.

REPORT

Resilience Under Pressure: Egypt’s Economy Defied Expectations

Amine Mati and Yevgeniya Korniyenko credit a quick policy response, buffers, and a flexible exchange rate, while warning that the state’s economic footprint remains excessively high and the risk of fiscal dominance persists.

REPORT

Libya, October 2026 Monthly Forecast

Previews SRSG Hanna Tetteh’s 60-day briefing and the renewal of the UNSMIL mandate, which expires October 31, and notes that no Dbeibah-Saddam Haftar deal under the Boulos initiative has been publicly announced.

REPORT

The Multiple Faces of Downgrading and Upgrading in Morocco: A Comparative Analysis

Research paper offering a comparative analysis of social mobility in Morocco, examining economic downgrading and upgrading across social groups.

REPORT

Violence Against Women and Economic Empowerment in Morocco: Why No Simple Correlation

Research paper examining the complex relationship between women’s economic empowerment and exposure to gender-based violence in Morocco.

REPORT

JNIM Ambushes Government Troops, Africa Corps Soldiers in Central Mali

CFR tracker reporting at least seven soldiers were killed near Niono in Ségou region, including three or four Russians, in continued JNIM attacks on Malian and Russian forces.

ACADEMIC ARTICLE

Conserving and Managing Mosaics by Reburial: Safeguarding the Baths of Regio VII at Sabratha, Libya

Cambridge University Press article on heritage conservation techniques used to protect the Roman mosaics at the Sabratha archaeological site in Libya through controlled reburial.

ACADEMIC ARTICLE

Academic Article on Science and Public Policy

Oxford University Press Peer-reviewed article in Science and Public Policy; specific North Africa or Sahel relevance to be confirmed from the abstract.

COMMENTARY

Africa’s Exit Problem Is the United States’ Entry Point

Atlantic Council Analysis arguing that as other powers disengage from parts of Africa, the US has an opening to deepen economic and strategic partnerships on the continent.

EDITED VOLUME

POMEPS Studies 59: Political Movements in North Africa and the Sahel

Collected scholarly volume examining protest movements, political mobilization, and social change across North Africa and the Sahel.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

Atlantic Council

2026 Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics

The Transatlantic Forum on December 11, 2026 on GeoEconomics is an annual flagship convening focused on issues at the nexus of economics, finance, foreign policy, and national security.

Chatham House

Competition Policy Conference 2026

Chatham House conference on competition policy, addressing market regulation and economic governance with relevance to African and MENA economies.

Policy Center for the New South

Dialogues Stratégiques, 21st Edition (October 29, 2026)

Policy Center for the New South and HEC Paris biannual geopolitical forum comparing Africa-Europe perspectives.

OECD

Responsible Business Conduct in Morocco (October 2026)

OECD event on advancing responsible business conduct standards in Morocco, addressing corporate accountability, supply chains, and sustainable investment.

Georgetown University

Tunisia’s Fractured Transition in Comparative Perspective

Georgetown Center for Contemporary Arab Studies event on October 20 examining Tunisia’s democratic backsliding under President Kais Saied in comparative regional perspective.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

WEBINAR

War in the Middle East: What are the economic consequences for Africa?

IRIS webinar explaining the war in the Middle East, and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and how its impacting the economies of many African countries.

WEBINAR

The Geopolitics of Mining in the Sahel and Myanmar, ft. Critical Risk Team’s George McLeod

Discussion of shifting geopolitical dynamics affecting mining companies across Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

WEBINAR

Africa’s Advantage: Building National Value in a Global Mining Economy

Atlantic Council event on how African states, including Sahel producers, can capture greater value from their critical mineral and mining resources in the global economy.

WEBINAR

After the Mali Attacks: What Way Forward for the Sahel and West Africa?

Online ECFR event with EU Sahel Special Representative João Cravinho, ISS’s Djiby Sow, OECD/SWAC’s Nana Touré, and ECFR’s Suzanne Tisserand.

WEBINAR

Pathways to Partnership, Prosperity, and Security in the Sahel

PCNS interview accompanying its joint work with the Atlantic Council on the current Sahel situation, examining US reengagement options and pathways to security, prosperity, and partnership in the region.

WEBINAR

War in the Middle East: What are the economic consequences for Africa?

Iris webinar on how the war in the Middle East, triggered by US and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, 2026, and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has had significant repercussions for Africa.

VIDEO REPORT

Focus on CNBC Africa AI Summit 2026: Building the Foundations for Africa’s AI-Driven Future

Video segment from the CNBC Africa AI Summit examining the infrastructure, policy, and investment needed to build Africa’s AI economy.

VIDEO REPORT

How Will the Rise of AI Impact Africa?

France 24 Video segment examining the opportunities and risks artificial intelligence poses for African economies, labor markets, and governance.

Job Opportunities

Stimson Center

Senior Fellow and Director, North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel

Stimson Center seeks an individual to serve as Senior Fellow and Director of the North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel program.

Regional Head of Operational Support Central and West Africa

Senior program-leadership role covering the Sahel within the West and Central Africa region.

ACTED

Project Development Officer, Port Sudan, Sudan (Job)

Supports program development and grant management for ACTED’s humanitarian operations in Sudan. Posted September 18, 2026; closes October 18, 2026.

Arab Monetary Fund

Economist, Maghreb

The Economist is responsible for providing high-level economic analysis and policy advice in the context of economic surveillance and the follow up of economic reform programs, conducting in-depth assessment of the eligibility of member countries in the context of evaluating loans’ requests.

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