North Africa Regional Outlook: September 9, 2026
From a fragile Hormuz deal reshaping energy markets to escalating Sahel violence and deepening fractures across North Africa’s political and security landscape, the region confronts compounding crises with narrowing diplomatic windows

Dear Friend,

Welcome back. Following a brief hiatus, we are pleased to resume publication of this newsletter and to renew our correspondence with you.

The coming year promises a substantial program of work across North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel. This newsletter will continue to serve as a vehicle for our latest analysis, events, and publications as they are released. We look forward to a productive year ahead and to sharing this work with you in the months to come.

We thank you for your continued readership and for your patience during this interval.

This week in North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel: From a fragile Hormuz deal reshaping energy markets to escalating Sahel violence and deepening fractures across North Africa’s political and security landscape, the region confronts compounding crises with narrowing diplomatic windows—explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel.

Hafed Al Ghwell
Director Emeritus and Senior Advisor
North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Sahel Program

September 9, 2026

Read the North Africa Weekly on LinkedIn or join the conversation on X: @StimsonNAfrica

From the North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Sahel Program

Events, commentaries and updates from the Stimson Center.

A Conversation with the Ambassadors of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger: The Sahel at a Crossroads

Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are reshaping the Sahel’s political and security landscape. Watch the Stimson Center event of a rare joint conversation with the ambassadors of all three Alliance of Sahel States members to discuss regional realignment, security, and future international engagement.

The Sino-Moroccan Green Partnership in the Shadow of the Iran War

Amanda Chen, Research Fellow at the ChinaMed Project of the Torino World Affairs Institute writes on China’s green investments in Morocco are reshaping trade, energy, and supply chain dynamics as the Iran War exposes new vulnerabilities across global markets.

Algeria as a Geopolitical Actor: Strategic Dynamics and Regional Implications

In a recent Issue Brief, Dario Cristiani, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, examines Algeria’s constrained geopolitical influence amid rising competition, internal stability, and evolving Mediterranean partnerships.

A Conversation with Ms. Amina Benkhadra: Morocco’s Energy Future and Strategic Resources

Morocco is advancing its energy and minerals sectors to strengthen security and drive the green transition. Watch Amina Benkhadra, Director General of the National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines (ONHYM), explore strategy and partnerships at the Stimson Center.

On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

Al Jazeera

Niger Mutiny Puts Russia’s Expanding Role in the Sahel to the Test

Report on how junta forces regained control of Air Base 101 during the August 29 coup attempt, with the Presidential Guard remaining loyal to General Abdourahamane Tiani amid decisive Russian support.

Financial Times

Morocco in spotlight as Spanish police report sparks Ceuta blame game

Spain’s police on Wednesday denied that their investigators had blamed Morocco for a surge of migrants into the Spanish exclave of Ceuta this summer after the claims worsened tense relations between the countries.

Associated Press

Russia Cements Its Role as Africa Junta Protector After Helping Quell Niger’s Mutiny

AP reporting on Russia Africa Corps’ decisive role in ending the Niger coup attempt, consolidating Moscow’s position as the security guarantor for the Sahel’s military governments.

Business Insider Africa

Algerian Su-30 Fighter Jets, Aerial Refueling Tanker Land in Niger as Allies Rally Behind Junta

Algeria deployed four Su-30 fighters and an Il-78 tanker to Niamey on August 30 following the coup attempt, its first foreign combat-aircraft deployment in over five decades.

Al-Monitor

How Ethiopia’s New Dams Test Egypt’s Ability to Defend Its Nile Red Lines

Analysis of how Ethiopia’s expanding dam infrastructure beyond the GERD is challenging Egypt’s ability to defend its historic Nile water rights, examining Cairo’s diplomatic and strategic options as its regional leverage weakens.

Al-Monitor

Tunisia’s Water and Power Crisis Fuels Growing Protests Against Saied: What to Know

Reporting on how Tunisia’s worsening water and electricity shortages are driving mounting public protests against President Kais Saied, examining the intersection of climate stress, infrastructure failure, and political discontent.

RFI

Niger Coup Attempt: ‘Russians Saved the Day,’ Analyst Tells RFI

French public radio interview analyzing the decisive role of external Russian support in defeating the August 29 mutiny against Niger’s junta.

The Washington Post

UN Report Details Foreign Networks Fueling War in Sudan

Reports the UN Fact-Finding Mission’s finding of a transnational supply chain spanning Colombia and the UAE, with transit points in Chad, southeastern Libya and Bosaso, arming the RSF; the war has killed at least 59,000 and displaced some 13 million.

UN News

Human Rights Chief Türk Renews Call for End to Spiralling Sudan War

At the Human Rights Council’s 63rd session, Volker Türk called for an immediate ceasefire, an end to foreign involvement, and a return to inclusive civilian rule, noting more than six million internally displaced and 4.5 million forced across Sudan’s borders.

Amnesty International

Tunisia: Upheld Convictions in Mass ‘Conspiracy Case’ a Travesty of Justice

After the Tunis Court of Cassation upheld sentences of up to 45 years against 34 defendants, Amnesty called it a devastating blow to justice following a sham trial, with the court rejecting 44 of 46 appeals.

Tunis Afrique Presse

Tunisia and Egypt Eye Stepping Up Trade and Exploring Joint Investment Opportunities

Tunisian FM Mohamed Ali Nafti met Egypt’s Badr Abdelatty in Cairo to discuss expanding bilateral trade and joint investment.

Libyan News Agency

UN Secretary-General Welcomes Signing of the Mini-Meeting Agreement in Libya

Guterres welcomed a Libyan political agreement signed on Sunday, part of ongoing efforts to advance the country’s stalled political transition.

The Libya Observer

Central Bank: Electronic Payment Transactions Reach LYD 764.9 Billion, Jan 1–Aug 31, 2026

Central Bank of Libya data showing rapid growth in digital payments through the first eight months of 2026.

The Libya Herald

Libya and South Korea Plan Economic Cooperation Forum for 2026

Libya’s Foreign Ministry prepares for a Libya-Korea economic cooperation forum scheduled for September 28.

Al-Monitor

FIFA Turmoil: Middle East Takes Center Stage as Infantino Fights to Stay in Power

Analysis of how Middle Eastern and North African football politics have become central to FIFA President Gianni Infantino’s struggle to retain power, examining the region’s growing influence over global football governance.

Al-Monitor

Sudan Ramps Up Saudi Arabia, Turkey Contacts Amid Growing Red Sea Cooperation

Reports on Sudan’s intensifying diplomatic engagement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey as Red Sea security cooperation deepens, examining how the war-torn country’s external alignments are shifting amid the ongoing conflict.

Ahram Online

Egypt Expresses Support for Niger Amid Unrest, Stresses State Unity

Cairo issued a statement backing Niger’s government and emphasizing state unity following the August 29 coup attempt.

Business Insider Africa

Nigeria Just Offered an Olive Branch to Another Country It Recently Had a Dispute With

Nigeria moves to repair relations with a country it had recently clashed with, in a diplomatic gesture aimed at easing regional tensions and strengthening West African cooperation.

Business Insider Africa

Chad May Have Just Joined Two Other African Countries in Buying China’s CH-4 Combat Drones

Chad appears to have acquired Chinese CH-4 combat drones, joining other African states in deepening defense procurement ties with Beijing as Western security partnerships recede across the Sahel.

South China Morning Post

China Stands to Gain from US Visa Restrictions Targeting African Countries

Analysis arguing that Washington’s tightening of visa access for African nationals opens the door for China to expand its influence through education, business, and diplomatic outreach across the continent.

Business Insider Africa

China Backs Africa’s Strongest Military as Egypt and Ethiopia Face Off over Africa’s Nile Waters

Reports on China’s deepening defense partnership with Egypt as tensions with Ethiopia over the GERD and Nile waters escalate, reshaping the balance of power in northeast Africa.

Sahafat Bladi

The Opening of an FBI Office in Algeria Enhances Security and Military Cooperation with Washington

Reports on the establishment of an FBI office in Algeria, framed as a significant deepening of US-Algerian security, counterterrorism, and law enforcement cooperation.

Le Monde

In Egypt, the Octagon: The Army’s Oversized Headquarters and Symbol of a Power That Is Barricading Itself

Feature on Egypt’s massive new military headquarters, “the Octagon,” in the New Administrative Capital, presented as a physical symbol of the military’s entrenchment and the Sisi government’s insulation from the population.

The Africa Report

US Pressed from All Sides as Sudan Conflict Spreads Far and Wide

Analysis of the mounting diplomatic pressure on Washington as Sudan’s civil war regionalizes, drawing in Chad, Libya, and Gulf actors while US policy struggles to keep pace with the spreading conflict.

The National

African Union Commission Under Fire for Endorsing ‘Inconclusive’ Sudan Dialogue Call

Reports on criticism directed at the AU Commission for backing a Sudan dialogue initiative that critics say lacks substance and fails to address the structural drivers of the war.

APAnews

Nigerian Section of Trans-Sahara Road Project Reaches 45% Completion, Minister Says

Coverage of the Nigerian government’s update that its portion of the Trans-Saharan road project has reached 45% completion, part of the broader effort to connect Nigeria through Niger and Algeria to the Mediterranean.

Business Front

Algeria’s Sonatrach Enters Niger’s Jet A1 Market, Challenging Dangote’s Africa Fuel Dominance

Reports on Algeria’s state energy company Sonatrach entering Niger’s aviation fuel market, positioning itself as a direct competitor to Nigeria’s Dangote refinery in the contest for African downstream fuel dominance.

Agenzia Fides

Africa/Niger: Algeria Sends Fighter Jets to Niger After a Failed Military Coup

Catholic news agency Fides reports on Algeria’s deployment of fighter jets to Niger following the August 29 failed coup attempt, underscoring Algiers’ decisive intervention in support of the Niamey government.

The National

African Union Commission Under Fire for Endorsing ‘Inconclusive’ Sudan Dialogue Call

Reports on criticism of the AU Commission for backing a Sudan dialogue initiative seen as lacking substance and failing to address the war’s structural drivers.

Middle East Eye

Morocco Names New Highway in Occupied Western Sahara After Donald Trump

Reports that Morocco has named a new highway in Western Sahara after US President Donald Trump, a symbolic gesture tied to Washington’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory.

Reuters

Libya Rivals Agree Roadmap for Elections Within 24 Months in UN-Led Talks

Libya’s rival factions agree to a UN-facilitated roadmap aiming to hold elections within 24 months, marking a tentative step forward in the stalled political transition despite deep uncertainty over implementation.

Al-Monitor

Russia’s Putin Hosts Saddam Hifter Amid Instability in Libya: What to Know

Reports on Vladimir Putin hosting Saddam Haftar in Moscow amid Libya’s fragile political situation, examining what the meeting signals about Russia’s evolving relationship with the Haftar family and its foothold in eastern Libya.

Agenzia Nova

Libya: 34 Italian Companies in Benghazi, Urban Focus on the Historic Center

Reports on a delegation of 34 Italian companies engaging in Benghazi’s reconstruction, with a focus on urban redevelopment of the historic center, reflecting Italy’s deepening economic engagement with eastern Libya.

The New Arab

Algeria to Jail Drug Barons in Former Desert Barracks

Reports on Algeria’s plan to convert former desert military barracks into prisons for convicted drug traffickers, part of a broader crackdown on narcotics smuggling across its southern borders.

The Guardian

Spain PM Demands Evidence from Morocco over Ceuta Border Breach

Spain’s Prime Minister presses Morocco for an explanation after a mass migrant border breach at the Ceuta enclave, escalating diplomatic tensions over migration management between Madrid and Rabat.

Reuters

Ceuta Residents Call for Calm as Spain Rallies over Enclave’s Migrant Crisis

Reports on tensions in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta as residents urge calm amid nationwide rallies and political controversy over the migration crisis at the Morocco-Spain border.

ABC News

Algerians Battle Deadly Wildfires as Tebboune Seeks Death Penalty for Arsonists

Reports on Algeria’s struggle against deadly wildfires, with President Tebboune pushing for the death penalty for those convicted of deliberately setting fires amid the country’s worsening climate-driven fire seasons.

International Crisis Group

Assessing the New US Initiative for Libya

Crisis Group warns that the US-backed “Boulos plan” to merge Libya’s rival executives, reportedly by making Saddam Haftar head of the Presidential Council while keeping Dabaiba as prime minister, risks triggering violent resistance from western factions; it urges Washington not to rush a political deal and to focus first on budgetary and military unification and broader consultations.

EU Space Programme

Severe Fires Affected Europe and North Africa in July and August 2026

Copernicus Earth-observation feature documenting the severe wildfires that struck Europe and North Africa during July and August 2026, with satellite imagery mapping the scale of the burns including in Algeria.

Mixed Migration Centre

Ceuta: A Test of Europe’s New Migration Pact

Analysis using the Ceuta border crisis as a case study to assess whether the EU’s new Migration and Asylum Pact can effectively manage migration pressures at Europe’s African frontier.

BBC News

Two-year curfew lifted in Sudan’s capital

Sudan has lifted a two-year-old curfew and a previously declared state of emergency in Khartoum, the government’s Security Affairs Coordination Committee announced on Thursday.

Business Insider Africa

Europe’s Most Powerful Nuclear-Armed Military Is Quietly Building Its Own Security Presence in Africa

Reports on France’s continued and evolving military and security engagement in Africa despite its Sahel drawdown, examining how Paris is repositioning its presence on the continent.

The Conversation

Niger’s Failed Coup Is a Warning to the Sahel’s Military Rulers: Those with Power Must Keep Their Promises

Analysis arguing that the failed August 29 coup attempt in Niger is a cautionary signal to the Sahel’s juntas that popular and elite patience with unfulfilled promises is wearing thin, threatening their hold on power.

The New York Times

In Egypt, Xi Challenges America’s Influence in the Middle East

Reports on Xi Jinping hosting Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in Beijing, part of China’s broader push to expand its economic and diplomatic influence across the Middle East and North Africa.

The Defense Post

Egypt Eyes French Rafale Jets in Major Defense Deal

Reports on Egypt’s negotiations to acquire additional French Rafale fighter jets, part of Cairo’s ongoing military modernization and its balancing of Western and non-Western defense suppliers.

Reuters

Egypt Welcomes Xi as Beijing Expands Influence in the Middle East

Coverage of Egypt hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping, examining how Cairo is deepening ties with Beijing on trade, infrastructure, and investment amid shifting global alignments.

APAnews

Libya: ENI Denies Requesting Increase in Gas Deliveries

Reports that Italian energy company ENI has denied requesting an increase in gas deliveries from Libya, amid speculation about European efforts to secure additional North African gas supplies following the Hormuz disruption.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

COMMENTARY

How the ‘climate table’ is the new peace table

Stimson Center North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program Advisor and Director Emeritus Hafed Al Ghwell argues hat climate-driven resource scarcity is becoming a driver of conflict and governance failure in Africa, allowing armed groups to gain legitimacy by controlling water, land, food, and markets, and therefore calls for climate adaptation and resource governance to become central to peace and security strategies.

COMMENTARY

Should Egypt Join the Mecca Pact?

Chatham House analysis examining the strategic calculations behind whether Egypt should join the Mecca Pact defense arrangement, weighing the implications for Cairo’s relationships with Gulf states, its regional posture, and its strategic autonomy.

REPORT

Niger Thwarts Coup; The Sudanese Civil War Threatens to Regionalize; New Government Offensives in Eastern DRC

AEI assessment of Russia’s “regime survival package” in Niger, Algeria’s unusual military intervention, and the growing regionalization of Sudan’s war.

COMMENTARY

Algeria: ICITAP-Driven Anti-Money-Laundering Reforms Drive Algeria off the FATF Grey List

DOJ blog detailing how ICITAP-supported anti-money-laundering reforms helped Algeria exit the Financial Action Task Force grey list, marking a milestone in US-Algeria legal and financial cooperation.

COMMENTARY

China’s Xi Seeks Trade Routes via Egypt and Central Asia to Bypass Tariffs and Western Rules

Analysis of Xi Jinping’s push to develop alternative trade corridors through Egypt and Central Asia to circumvent US tariffs and Western-dominated trade frameworks, with Egypt positioned as a key Mediterranean gateway.

COMMENTARY

Benign or Malign? Reasons for the Rise in Long-Term U.S. Interest Rates

Opinion piece by Marcus Vinicius de Freitas analyzing the drivers of rising long-term US interest rates and their global implications, published September 3.

COMMENTARY

Critical Minerals Need Secure Supply Chains That Increasingly Depend on Responsible Production

Chatham House analysis arguing that securing critical mineral supply chains requires responsible production standards, with implications for African producers in the Sahel and DRC navigating between Western and Chinese demand.

COMMENTARY

Climate of Concern: The Changing Face of Social Movements in North Africa

ECFR analysis examining how climate stress, water scarcity, and environmental degradation are reshaping social movements and protest dynamics across North Africa.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Mauritania’s New Investment Code (2025)

IFC analysis of Mauritania’s new investment code, examining how the reforms aim to attract foreign investment, improve the business climate, and position the country as an emerging energy and mining hub.

COMMENTARY

Morocco’s Attempt to Rebrand Western Sahara

Analysis of Morocco’s diplomatic and symbolic efforts to consolidate its claim over Western Sahara, including infrastructure projects and international outreach designed to normalize its control.

COMMENTARY

Sudan Remains the Most Under-Reported Foreign Policy Crisis

Eurasia Review Opinion piece arguing that Sudan’s catastrophic civil war continues to receive disproportionately little international media and policy attention despite its massive humanitarian toll and regional spillover.

REPORT

China’s Expanding Military Reach in Africa

Africa Center analysis documenting the expansion of China’s military footprint across Africa, including arms sales, base access, and defense partnerships, and the strategic implications for the continent.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Europe, Mauritania and the Gulf states: Securing stability and growth in the Sahel

ECFR analysis on how Mauritania is a vital buffer against Sahelian instability and a central partner for Europe’s energy and migration policies. As Gulf Arab influence grows, the EU’s Pact for the Mediterranean can align trilateral financial and security interests.

REPORT

Sudan, September 2026 Monthly Forecast

Security Council Report Flags the September 12 expiry of the Sudan sanctions regime and the expected Council vote on renewal; the Panel of Experts mandate expires October 12.

REPORT

Fuelling Sudan’s Conflict

UN Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan Documents a transnational chain of networks supplying the RSF with foreign personnel, training, weapons and logistics, citing RSF drone strikes in South Kordofan that killed 114 including 60 children and SAF attacks on a Sudanese teaching hospital that killed at least 70.

REPORT

Evaluation of United Nations System Coordination in the Sahel (2013–2025)

UNSDG evaluation assessing the effectiveness of UN system coordination in the Sahel over more than a decade, examining lessons learned and recommendations for improving integrated humanitarian, development, and peace efforts.

REPORT

Overcoming Barriers to Integration of Sudanese Refugees in Chad: Education, Employment and Land Access

SIPRI research report examining the structural barriers to integrating Sudanese refugees in Chad, focusing on access to education, employment, and land, and offering policy recommendations for durable solutions.

REPORT

WFP Mauritania Country Brief, August 2026

WFP’s monthly operational brief on Mauritania, documenting food security conditions, refugee assistance for Malian refugees at Mbera camp, and nutrition programming across the country.

REPORT

Bangladeshi Migration to Italy Through Libya

Research report tracing the migration route of Bangladeshi nationals to Italy via Libya, examining the smuggling networks, exploitation risks, and policy implications for Mediterranean migration governance.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

Atlantic Council

2026 Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics

December 11, 2026 — The Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics is an annual flagship convening focused on issues at the nexus of economics, finance, foreign policy, and national security.

Policy Center for the New South

From Strategy to Delivery: Implementing the Mediterranean Energy Agenda — 5th Meeting of the Mediterranean Energy Experts Circle

Policy Center for the New South event during the window for September 16–19, focusing on Mediterranean energy cooperation and delivery.

CSIS

The Future of US-Africa Minerals Diplomacy

CSIS event on September 18 examining the trajectory of US critical-minerals engagement with Africa, including the Sahel’s lithium and uranium resources, and how Washington is competing with China and Russia for access.

Chatham House

How Will Young Voters Shape Morocco’s Political Future?

Chatham House event examining the role of Morocco’s youth electorate in shaping the country’s political trajectory, addressing generational change, political participation, and the demands of a young population amid economic and social pressures.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

PODCAST

The Battle for the Sahel

The Objective podcast episode in which Beatriz de León Cobo analyzes jihadist expansion from Mali into coastal West Africa, published September 7.

PODCAST

Investing in Human Capital

Policy Center for the New South podcast explores the central role of human capital in Africa’s economic transformation amid rapid population growth and a youthful demographic.

PODCAST

Reflections on a Diplomatic Career in the Middle East: A Conversation with Ambassador Yael Lempert

MEI podcast featuring a conversation with Ambassador Yael Lempert reflecting on her diplomatic career in the Middle East, offering insights into US foreign policy, regional diplomacy, and the evolving strategic landscape.

PODCAST

Food Security in a Hotter, Drier North Africa

MEI podcast examining the mounting food security challenges facing North Africa as climate change drives higher temperatures and reduced water availability, exploring the implications for agriculture, imports, and regional stability.

VIDEO REPORT

How the Sudan War Risks Fracturing Chad

ICG video with Senior Analyst Charles Bouëssel on how the spillover from Sudan’s civil war threatens to destabilize neighboring Chad.

VIDEO REPORT

Can International Diplomacy Find a Way Forward in Libya?

Al Jazeera Inside Story panel examining whether international diplomatic efforts, including the US-backed Boulos initiative and UN-led process, can break Libya’s political deadlock and advance reunification.

PODCAST

Securing North Africa’s Future: Geopolitical Dynamics, Regional Stability and Strategic Autonomy

PCNS podcast examining North Africa’s evolving geopolitical landscape, regional stability challenges, and the pursuit of strategic autonomy amid great-power competition and Sahel instability.

Job Opportunities

UNICEF

Chief (Cash Transfers), P-5, Port Sudan, Sudan

Senior role leading UNICEF’s cash transfer programming in Sudan with a September 11 deadline.

Stimson Center

Senior Fellow and Director, North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel

Stimson Center seeks an individual to serve as Senior Fellow and Director of the North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel program.

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Hafed Al Ghwell
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