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From the North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Sahel Program
Events, commentaries and updates from the Stimson Center.
The Sahel’s Humanitarian Emergency
Stimson panel examines the Sahel’s humanitarian emergency, shifting external partnerships, eroding civilian protection, access constraints, and U.S. policy implications.
The Game of Middle Powers in North Africa
Stefan Lukas and Yusuf Can write on How Russia, the Gulf states, and Turkey are reshaping North Africa through security partnerships, investment, and political influence.
Algeria as a Geopolitical Actor: Strategic Dynamics and Regional Implications
In a recent Issue Brief, Dario Cristiani, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, examines Algeria’s constrained geopolitical influence amid rising competition, internal stability, and evolving Mediterranean partnerships.
On Our Radar
The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.
The National
Morocco Government Sworn In Under First Female Prime Minister Fatima El Mansouri
King Mohammed VI presided over the swearing-in of Morocco’s new government. Bourita kept the foreign ministry and Laftit kept interior, Fouzi Lekjaa took over economy and finance, and PPS leader Nabil Benabdallah returned as education minister.
Military Africa
Morocco and UAE Deepen Military Ties as Algeria Isolates Abu Dhabi
Morocco’s armed forces inspector general hosted the UAE chief of staff in Rabat on October 6 around the Marrakech Air Show, four weeks after Algeria cut diplomatic ties with the UAE.
Morocco World News
Analysis: Algeria’s UAE Rupture Reveals a Foreign Policy Held Hostage by the Sahara
MWN argues that the Western Sahara dispute drives Algiers’ break with Abu Dhabi and notes that MINURSO’s mandate expires on October 31. The outlet writes from a Moroccan editorial perspective.
Al Jazeera
Thousands Rally for Biggest Protest in Years Against Tunisia’s Saied
Unions and opposition groups marched in Tunis on October 17 against worsening living conditions and restrictions on freedoms, reviving 2011-era slogans, as UGTT leader Salah Eddine Salmi declared that “silence will no longer be acceptable.”
Al Jazeera
Tunisia’s Economic Crisis Deepens as the Promise of a Better Life Fades
Feature on Tunisia’s unemployed graduates, whose October 6 march at Borj Cedria police blocked, as national unemployment reaches 14.9%, 26.6% among university graduates, and 35.4% among 15- to 24-year-olds.
The New Arab
Tunisians Stage Biggest Protest in Years Against President Saied
Quotes UGTT head Slah Eddine Salmi saying “the state cannot be built by concentrating all powers in the hand of one person” as the union led the October 17 march.
The Africa Report
Saddam Haftar’s Ambition to Rule Libya Runs Into Trouble in the Sahel
Saddam Haftar uses hostage releases, support for rebels, and a new alliance with Chad to make himself indispensable, but the Mali and Niger juntas view his moves as meddling.
The New Arab
Saddam Haftar Drone Claims Threaten Washington’s Libya Unity Push
Citing The Guardian, reports unverified GNU allegations tying Saddam Haftar to drone attacks on western Libya’s energy infrastructure, which would undercut the US-backed Boulos power-sharing track. Published October 4; included as context.
The Libya Observer
Tetteh to Brief Security Council on Libya in October
Previews SRSG Hanna Tetteh’s October briefing and the AU Committee of Ten meeting on UN Security Council reform hosted in Tripoli on October 10 and 11. Published October 3; included as context.
UNSMIL
UNSMIL Expresses Concern Over Recent Enforced Disappearances in Libya
The UN mission raised alarm over a recent wave of enforced disappearances in Libya in an October 9 statement.
Al Jazeera
UN Extends Darfur Arms Embargo, Blocks Broader Sudan Sanctions Proposal
The Security Council unanimously adopted Resolution 2830, extending Darfur-only sanctions to December 11, as Russia’s deputy envoy said Moscow “will not allow even a hint of broadening.”
UN News
Darfur: Healthcare Needs Outstrip Resources as Security Council Extends Sudan Sanctions
The Panel of Experts mandate now runs to January 11, 2027, while WHO warns of medical shortages for more than 700,000 displaced people in Tawila.
The National
UN Security Council Extends Arms Embargo in Sudan’s Darfur as US Pushes for Nationwide Ban
Traces Washington’s push for a nationwide arms embargo back to Massad Boulos’s August proposal and explains why the Council fell back to another short extension.
Sudan Tribune
Sudanese Army Drone Strike Kills Four Civilians in West Kordofan, Monitor Says
The Kordofan Observatory reports that a SAF drone struck a civilian vehicle near Ankoush, killing four people.
Bloomberg
IMF Aims to Wrap Up Egypt’s Final Program Review by End of Year
IMF Middle East Director Jihad Azour said talks on Egypt’s final EFF review would begin after the Bangkok meetings, after which Cairo can decide whether it wants a new program.
CNBC Africa
IMF’s Georgieva Optimistic on Senegal Debt Treatment Under Improved G20 Framework
IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva called Senegal “the test case to the playbook” of the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable as Dakar pursues a $2.2 billion program and debt restructuring.
Africanews
Burkina Faso’s Military Leader Launches New Football Championship
Captain Ibrahim Traoré launched a 20-team “Sovereignty League” that promises players about $300 a month.
Morocco World News
Ibrahim Traoré Ready to Risk FIFA Suspension Over Burkina Faso Football Crisis
After Burkina Faso’s 7-0 loss to Argentina, Traoré declared “our football is sick” and signaled he would intervene in the national federation despite the risk of FIFA sanctions.
AFP
Burkina Faso Says It Is “Decolonizing” School Curriculum
The junta is revising history, geography, and civics teaching and has issued teachers a booklet listing expressions to avoid.
Demócrata
Tighter Controls in Morocco, Mauritania, and Senegal Push Migrant Departures Further South in Africa
IOM reports a 65% drop in Canary Islands arrivals between 2024 and 2025, but departures are shifting to points further south along riskier Atlantic routes.
Al-Monitor
Why Renewed Egypt-Ethiopia Tensions Are a Problem for China
Analysis of how flaring tensions between Cairo and Addis Ababa put Beijing in a bind, since China holds major economic stakes and partnerships with both countries.
Business Insider Africa
Africa’s Second Most Powerful Army Flies Through NATO Airspace to Moscow
Reports on an Egyptian military flight crossing NATO airspace en route to Moscow, highlighting Cairo’s continued defense ties with Russia and the friction this creates with Poland and other NATO members.
Fitch Ratings
Fitch Affirms Egypt at ‘B’; Outlook Stable
Fitch affirmed Egypt’s sovereign rating at B with a stable outlook on October 8, citing progress under the IMF program alongside persistent fiscal and external financing risks.
Bloomberg
Morocco to Propose New Migration Control Deal After Ceuta Crisis
Rabat plans to offer Spain and the EU a new migration control arrangement following the mass border crossing into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta.
Il Foglio
In Libya, Haftar Tears Up the Contract with Webuild for the “Highway of Peace”
Reports that Haftar’s eastern authorities canceled Italian firm Webuild’s contract for the coastal highway Italy pledged to Libya under the 2008 friendship treaty, a setback for Rome’s engagement in eastern Libya.
Business Insider Africa
Morocco Eyes $5 Billion Aerospace Industry as US Defense Giant Seeks Local Production
Morocco aims to grow its aerospace sector to $5 billion as a major US defense manufacturer explores local production, reinforcing the kingdom’s role as an industrial hub.
The Economist
Ethiopia and Eritrea Are on the Brink of Another Conflict
Warns that rising hostility between Addis Ababa and Asmara risks a new war in the Horn of Africa, with Egypt and Sudan drawn into the regional rivalry.
Bloomberg
Egypt Vows “Any Kind of Support” for Saudis After Houthi Strikes
Cairo pledged full backing to Riyadh following Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, signaling closer Egyptian-Saudi security alignment.
Al Jazeera
Libya’s Parliament Removes Speaker Aguila Saleh After 12 Years
Libya’s House of Representatives voted out Aguila Saleh, its speaker since 2014, a major shift in eastern Libya’s political order amid the Haftar family’s consolidation of power.
Il Sole 24 Ore
Anti-Abiy Pact and Troops in Somalia: Egypt Steps Up Pressure on Ethiopia
Examines Egypt’s moves to pressure Ethiopia through alignments with Eritrea and Somalia and its troop deployment to Somalia, as the GERD dispute escalates into regional competition.
Bloomberg
Congo Arrests Hundreds of Chinese Miners in Copper Heartland
DRC authorities arrested hundreds of Chinese miners in the Katanga copper belt, a crackdown on illegal mining that tests Kinshasa’s relationship with Beijing.
Bloomberg
Ukraine Talks with Turkey, India, Egypt over Grain Corridor
Kyiv is negotiating with Turkey, India, and Egypt on a grain corridor arrangement, with Egypt, a top wheat importer, central to securing food supply routes.
Reuters
Africa’s Minerals Value-Add Drive Interests Investors but Faces Energy Hurdle
Investors show interest in Africa’s push to process critical minerals locally, but unreliable and expensive power supply remains the main obstacle.
Business Insider Africa
A Powerful African Military Considers Joining Pakistan and Turkey in Defending Saudi Arabia
Reports that Egypt is weighing participation alongside Pakistan and Turkey in a Saudi defense arrangement as Houthi attacks escalate.
Reuters
Major Development Banks Step Up Support for Critical Minerals Value Chains
Multilateral development banks pledged expanded financing for critical minerals processing and value chains, with significant implications for African producers.
The New York Times
Egypt’s el-Sisi and Term Limits Through 2030
Reports on moves that would allow President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi to extend his rule beyond current term limits, deepening concerns about Egypt’s authoritarian trajectory.
Business Insider Africa
Africa’s Richest Man’s Foundation Partners with 15 Nigerian States
The Dangote Foundation partnered with 15 Nigerian state governments on a large-scale social and health initiative.
Business Insider Africa
Nearly 21 Months After Leaving ECOWAS, Breakaway Sahel States Agree to Negotiate New Arrangement
Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger agreed to open negotiations with ECOWAS on a new framework for relations, nearly two years after their formal exit from the bloc.
The Guardian
World Bank and Artificial Intelligence in Developing Economies
Covers a World Bank assessment of AI’s effects on developing economies, including risks to labor markets and opportunities for growth across Africa and the Middle East.
Business Insider Africa
Algeria Remains Africa’s Fourth-Largest Economy at $331.9 Billion in Latest Rankings
The latest IMF-based rankings keep Algeria as Africa’s fourth-largest economy, behind South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria.
Migflug
KC-10 Extender Tankers Regenerated for a North African Partner
Reports on the US plan to refurbish retired KC-10 aerial tankers for transfer to a North African partner, widely reported to be Morocco.
AirData News
US Air Force Seeks to Transfer Four Retired KC-10 Tankers to North Africa
The US Air Force is seeking to transfer four retired KC-10 tankers to a North African ally, which would significantly expand that country’s aerial refueling capability.
Bloomberg
IMF Aims to Wrap Up Egypt’s Final Program Review by End of Year
IMF Middle East Director Jihad Azour said talks on Egypt’s final EFF review would begin after the Bangkok meetings, after which Cairo can decide whether it wants a new program.
Reuters
Prolonged War, Renewed Disruptions Pose Biggest Risk to Middle East Region, IMF Says
The IMF warned that a prolonged regional war and renewed shipping and energy disruptions pose the greatest downside risk to the Middle East and North Africa outlook.
Reuters
EU Expands Migration Cooperation with Eastern Libya Through New Funding
The EU extended new migration-control funding to Haftar-controlled eastern Libya, deepening Brussels’ engagement with Benghazi despite rights concerns.
RFI
Libya: 30% to 50% of Fuel Imports Diverted by Smuggling Networks, According to the UN
Citing UN findings, reports that smuggling networks divert between a third and a half of Libya’s subsidized fuel imports, draining public finances and fueling armed groups.
Afric Telegraph
Libya: Up to Half of Imported Fuel Escapes the State
Covers the same UN finding on large-scale fuel smuggling and its cost to Libya’s budget and governance.
Business Insider Africa
Europe Finds an Unlikely Partner in Russia-Backed Military Government in North Africa
Reports on European engagement with a Russia-aligned authority in North Africa, most likely Haftar’s eastern Libya, on migration and energy despite its ties to Moscow.
Defence24
The US Trains Libya While Russia Builds Six Bases
Contrasts US training efforts with Libyan forces against Russia’s expansion to six military sites in Libya, arguing Moscow is winning the competition for influence on the ground.
Business Insider Africa
About 25,000 Migrants from Africa and Asia Cross into Italy and Greece Through Russia-Linked Routes
Reports that roughly 25,000 migrants reached Italy and Greece via routes tied to Russian-backed networks, including through eastern Libya.
Defense Express
Egypt Receives Russian Kh-35UE Cruise Missiles for MiG-29M2 Fighters
Analyzes evidence that Egypt received Russian Kh-35UE anti-ship missiles for its MiG-29M2 fleet and what the delivery means for Egyptian-Russian defense ties.
Business Insider Africa
Russia-Backed Burkina Faso and UAE Back Morocco’s Plan for Disputed Western Sahara
Reports that Burkina Faso and the UAE endorsed King Mohammed VI’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara, adding to Rabat’s diplomatic momentum.
Business Insider Africa
Trump-Putin Fuel Agreement Sends 40,000 Tonnes of Russian Diesel Toward Morocco
Reports that a cargo of Russian diesel is heading to Morocco following a US-Russia fuel arrangement, raising questions about sanctions and Rabat’s energy sourcing.
Middle East Monitor
Egypt Unveils New Laser System to Intercept Drones in Sinai
Egypt deployed a new laser air-defense system to counter drones in Sinai, part of its response to regional drone threats.
South China Morning Post
How a Hospital Ship Helps Buoy China’s Strategic Mission in Africa
Examines how China’s naval hospital ship deployments to African ports serve Beijing’s soft-power and strategic goals on the continent.
Reports & Analysis on the Region
Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.
COMMENTARY
Sabotage threats hinder Libya’s political progress
Stimson Center North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program Advisor and Director Emeritus Hafed Al Ghwell argues that the UN-facilitated 4+4 agreement between the GNU and the eastern General Command opens a 24-month path to Libyan elections, but drone attacks on western Libya’s oil, power, and water infrastructure (allegedly tied to Saddam Haftar), the High Council of State’s rejection of the deal, and armed groups’ leverage over pipelines will doom it unless credible investigations, institutional legitimacy, and security sector reform advance together.
REPORT
2026 Investment Climate Statements: Morocco
The State Department’s annual assessment of Morocco’s investment environment, covering regulatory reforms, sector openings, and barriers facing US investors.
PRESS RELEASE
Announces the World Bank’s new regional hub in Riyadh covering MENA, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Published September 2025; included as context, well outside the window.
COMMENTARY
Climate of Concern: The Changing Face of Social Movements in North Africa
Analysis of how climate stress, water scarcity, and environmental degradation are reshaping protests and social movements across North Africa.
UN Press Release
Security Council, 10242nd Meeting: Libya
Official record of the Council’s 60-day Libya briefing on October 14, held ahead of the UNSMIL mandate renewal on October 31.
COMMENTARY
The Ukraine War’s Growing African Front
Examines how the Russia-Ukraine war has extended into Africa, including Ukrainian operations against Russian assets in Libya and the Sahel and Moscow’s expanding military presence.
COMMENTARY
Rethinking Africa’s Last Decade of Structural Transformation
Reassesses Africa’s economic transformation over the past decade, questioning standard narratives about industrialization and growth. Published September 24; included as context.
POLICY ANALYSIS
IDOS discussion paper assessing the social and environmental risks of green hydrogen development in Morocco and Oman and the safeguards needed to manage them.
COMMENTARY
Green Hydrogen in North Africa: Who Is Really Leading the Race, Morocco or Egypt?
Compares Morocco’s and Egypt’s green hydrogen strategies, projects, and investment pipelines to assess which country leads the regional race.
COMMENTARY
The Sahel’s Geopolitical Reset and Russia’s Strategic Opening
Analysis of how the Sahel’s break with France and ECOWAS opened space for Russian influence, and the limits Moscow faces.
COMMENTARY
The Rising Islamic State Threat to Europe and the West
Analysis of Islamic State’s resurgence and external operations, including the role of African affiliates in the Sahel as bases for plotting against Europe.
COMMENTARY
MINURSO’s Future: What the Security Council’s Choice May Reveal
Analysis of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) vote on whether to renew the UN monitoring mission in Western Sahara, officially known as the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).
COMMENTARY
Algeria’s New Bid for Regional Influence
Sabina Henneberg argues that the break with the UAE reflects Algeria’s push to reassert itself regionally, with consequences for Western Sahara diplomacy and pending Chevron and ExxonMobil gas deals.
COMMENTARY
Western Sahara Embraces Morocco
David Schenker argues that recent elections in Western Sahara demonstrated local support for Moroccan sovereignty while Algeria continues to press for independence.
COMMENTARY
The Threat of Russia’s Growing Presence in Libya
Anna Borshchevskaya and Sabina Henneberg warn that Moscow keeps Libya’s factions divided while expanding its military footprint, posing a threat to NATO’s southern flank and to Africa.
COMMENTARY
Africa’s Evolving Role in a New International Order
Commentary on how African states are repositioning themselves amid great-power competition and a fragmenting international system.
COMMENTARY
Intra-African Trade Share Is a Poor Measure of Integration. Here Is a Better One
Brookings Institution commentary argues that the share of trade African countries conduct with each other understates regional integration, and proposes an alternative measure for judging progress under the AfCFTA.
POLICY PAPER
Syria, Libya: Russia’s Adapted Mediterranean Strategy in the Post-Assad Era
Policy Center for the New South Examines how Moscow reworked its Mediterranean military posture after losing its Syrian foothold, shifting toward eastern Libya as its main base for projecting power into the Mediterranean and the Sahel.
COMMENTARY
As the Horn of Africa Nears Boiling Point, Time for Urgent Diplomacy
Commentary placing Sudan at the center of overlapping Horn of Africa crises alongside Ethiopia’s tensions with its neighbors.
POLICY ANALYSIS
The UN Secretary-General’s 2026 Report on the Sahara
Policy Center for the New South Analysis of the UN Secretary-General’s 2026 report on Western Sahara, issued ahead of the MINURSO mandate renewal on October 31. It examines what the report signals for the autonomy plan and the UN process.
REPORT
Shewit Woldemichael argues that army gains in Kordofan and Darfur may make Sudan’s military more confident of victory and complicate diplomacy, while Ibrahim Maïga assesses the army’s recapture of Kidal in Mali.
COMMENTARY
Libya’s Arsenals: The Blind Spot of the Tripoli Agreement
Hassane Koné warns that dissolving Libya’s militias, a condition of reunification, could push weapons into the Sahel and the Lake Chad basin.
COMMENTARY
The Cyber-Fueled Cult of Ibrahim Traoré
Olatunji Olaigbe examines the AI-driven and social media influence networks behind Traoré’s image, self-censorship among Burkinabè journalists, and the country’s exit from the ICC.
COMMENTARY
What’s Behind the Algeria-UAE Rupture
Places Algeria’s break with Abu Dhabi within its long opposition to UAE backing for Haftar, the RSF, and other regional actors. Published September 28; included as context.
REPORT
Sudan Sanctions: Vote on a Draft Resolution Extending the Sanctions Regime
Explains why Washington fell back to a second technical rollover after its expanded arms embargo draft stalled, with the A3, China, Pakistan, and Russia preferring a Darfur-only renewal.
REPORT
Sudan: Briefing and Consultations
Previews the Council’s October 16 Sudan briefing under Resolution 2715 amid fighting in Kordofan and Blue Nile.
COMMENTARY
Militant spillover from Mali raises mining-related security risks in Guinea
JNIM has been increasing its attacks on mining operations along the Mali-Guinea border, which has brought militant activity closer to Guinea’s gold-producing mines.
COMMENTARY
JNIM’s expansion in western Mali puts Senegal’s trade and mining sectors at risk
Senegal faces no immediate threat from JNIM, but the group’s entrenchment in bordering Mali gives it access to cross-border communities, trade, and gold mining.
REPORT
Logs the IPC famine warning (October 12), an unverified Emergency Lawyers claim of an Egyptian air strike that killed 72 at a border gold mine (October 11), and a drone strike near Abu Shandi camp in Blue Nile that killed at least 31 (October 9, blamed on the RSF, toll unverified).
REPORT
Long-range scenarios by Jakkie Cilliers, Mustapha Ngundu, and Kouassi Chipanda, noting that EU ties with Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, and the Sahel increasingly revolve around migration.
Upcoming Events
Key briefings and conferences to watch.
Atlantic Council
2026 Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics
The Transatlantic Forum on December 11, 2026 on GeoEconomics is an annual flagship convening focused on issues at the nexus of economics, finance, foreign policy, and national security.
Chatham House
Competition Policy Conference 2026
Chatham House conference on competition policy, addressing market regulation and economic governance with relevance to African and MENA economies.
Policy Center for the New South
Dialogues Stratégiques, 21st Edition (October 29, 2026)
Policy Center for the New South and HEC Paris biannual geopolitical forum comparing Africa-Europe perspectives.
Atlantic Council
General Dagvin R. M. Anderson on US Strategy and Security in Africa
Event with the commander of US Africa Command on Washington’s security strategy for the continent, including counterterrorism in the Sahel, competition with Russia and China, and partnerships in North Africa.
Chatham House
Nigeria’s Economic Outlook: Progress, Reform, and Prospects for Inclusive Growth
Chatham House event assessing Nigeria’s economic reforms, growth trajectory, and the challenge of making gains more inclusive.
Chatham House
The Middle East and North Africa: Shaping the Next Decade
Chatham House’s flagship MENA conference on the political, security, and economic forces likely to shape the region over the next ten years.
Tune In
Hear the latest insights from regional experts.
WEBINAR
War in the Middle East: What are the economic consequences for Africa?
IRIS webinar explaining the war in the Middle East, and the resulting blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and how it’s impacting the economies of many African countries.
VIDEO REPORT
Hanna Serwaa Tetteh (UNSMIL) on the Situation in Libya: Security Council, 10242nd Meeting
Full video of the October 14 briefing, covering the High Council of State’s October 5 rejection of the House of Representatives’ agreement, fuel-subsidy smuggling, and a warning that attacks on oil infrastructure could trigger sanctions.
VIDEO REPORT
The Secrets Behind Mali Junta’s Takeover of Kidal Without a Fight
Six-minute segment on the Malian army and Russian forces reentering Kidal after the FLA withdrew.
VIDEO REPORT
Video Said to Show Mali Army in Kidal After Retaking City
A 46-second clip showing Malian troops in Kidal after the FLA’s withdrawal.
PODCAST
Old Rivals, New Alignments in North Africa
Covers Algeria’s break with the UAE, Morocco’s deepening ties with the UAE and Israel, Western Sahara, and Morocco’s elections.
WEBINAR
IMF Panel Explores Path to Africa’s Economic Growth
IMF discussion on Africa’s economic development.
VIDEO REPORT
Libya: 2.8 Million Voters Expected for the Elections
Libya’s electoral commission expects around 2.8 million registered voters for upcoming polls under the UN-backed election roadmap.
Job Opportunities
Stimson Center
Senior Fellow and Director, North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel
Stimson Center seeks an individual to serve as Senior Fellow and Director of the North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel program.
Arab Monetary Fund
The Economist is responsible for providing high-level economic analysis and policy advice in the context of economic surveillance and the follow up of economic reform programs, conducting in-depth assessment of the eligibility of member countries in the context of evaluating loan requests.
UN Women
Programme Management Specialist (NO-C), Bamako, Mali
National officer role managing UN Women programming in Mali. Closes October 25.
Norwegian Refugee Council
Cash and Markets Project Manager, Geneina, Sudan
Leads NRC’s cash and markets programming in West Darfur. Closes October 29.
International Organization for Migration
Senior Project Assistant (G-6), Bamako, Mali
Supports IOM project implementation in Mali. Closes October 27.
Community Adaptation for a Water Festival Without Clean Water