Presented to the Stimson Center/CNA NMD-China Project on January 17, 2002

Godwin views China’s doctrine of minimal deterrence as likely to change, with NMD being an important factor. NMD also provides additional and significant incentives for China to develop a more robust and modern nuclear deterrent force. Beijing’s response to U.S. missile defenses will influence the force structure that emerges over the next several decades in China.