Pathways to Progress: Peace, Prosperity, and Change in the Middle East
About the Project | Recent Analysis | Project Staff
The Project: Understanding the Arab World's Shifting Political Landscape
"An
extraordinary entrepreneurial spirit is waiting to be tapped in countries like
Egypt and Tunisia. Their people have the talent and drive to build resilient
economies and enduring democracies. If we support their efforts we can help
them unlock the region's potential, rebuild their dignity, and realize their
hopes. And, I argue very strongly, by doing so we will advance our own
security."
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, June 2, 2011
Launching in 2012, Pathways to Progress: Peace, Prosperity, and Change in the Middle East, a joint initiative between the Stimson Center and the George C. Marshall Foundation, will examine the Arab world's shifting political landscape, ongoing economic challenges, and evolving security threats in the midst of transformative change. The project's overarching strategic framework will focus on understanding these diverse trends and developing an integrated approach to meet the region's myriad challenges.
Drawing on the Marshall Plan legacy, Pathways to Progress will partner with key actors in the region to develop innovative solutions and policy options that foster peace and stability, create jobs, and encourage broad-based, inclusive economic growth. Working in partnership with key institutions in the region, Pathways to Progress will cultivate new thinking and creative solutions percolating in the region, promoting an active dialogue between the United States and the Arab world in which new ideas and innovative thinking flow in both directions. Specifically, Stimson and the Marshall Foundation, together with our regional partners, will convene a series of Pathways to Progress conferences in the Middle East that will generate policy recommendations for key constituencies in the Arab world, as well as for US policymakers. Read more >>
Marshall-Stimson Collaboration: A History of Friendship
(Henry Stimson and George Marshall shared a long and storied friendship during their US government service from the early- to mid-20th century. As highlighted in the following piece by Greg Franke, the relationship they fostered — anchored by shared values and a deep-seated mutual respect — has continued to drive collaboration between the two institutions founded in their names.)
Few men other than Marshall and Stimson have served the country in a greater variety of positions: Stimson as US attorney, Secretary of War twice, Governor General of the Philippines, Emissary to mediate the Nicaraguan civil war, and Secretary of State; and Marshall as Chief of Staff of the US Army, Presidential Representative to mediate the Chinese civil war, Secretary of State, President of the American Red Cross, and Secretary of Defense. It should come as no surprise that these two men developed a very close relationship that endured for over thirty years. This relationship began during the end of World War I and the interwar years and arguably helped to foster the decisive Allied victory in 1945 and the successful foreign policy measures enacted in the postwar period. This was an enduring friendship that shaped the course of the twentieth century. Read more >>
Project Events
On April 20, Pathways to Progress sponsored a roundtable discussion on the "Economic Consequences of the Arab Spring" with Francis Ghiles, Senior Research Fellow at the Barcelona Center for International Affairs. Mr. Ghiles focused his remarks on the Tunisian revolution, describing the 2010 uprising as a "revolt for dignity." Click here for a summary of the discussion from the event.
On April 9, 2012, the Stimson Center co-sponsored a panel dicussion with the George C. Marshall Foundation and the Safadi Foundation USA, "Arab Countries in Transition; an Update on International Support One Year after the Deauville Partnership," featuring Mona Yacoubian, Masood Ahmed, Inger Anderson, and Dr. Peter Howard. Click here for a summary of the discussion and video from the event.
On March 14, 2012, the Stimson Center and the US-Qatar Business Council hosted Majid Jafar, CEO of Crescent Petroleum and author of the “Arab Stabilization Plan.” Click here for more information.
On February 16, 2012, the Stimson Center co-sponsored a panel discussion with the Middle East Institute, "No End in Sight: Syria After the UN Vote," featuring Aram Nerguizian, Randa Slim, Kate Seelye, and Mona Yacoubian. Click here for a summary of the panel discussion and video from the event.
The Stimson Center hosted a panel discussion on January 23, 2012, exploring the economic aspects of the Arab Spring uprisings, with a keynote address delivered by Under Secretary of State for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment Robert D. Hormats. Click here to watch.
Project News
Mona Yacoubian is quoted in a Sydney Morning Herald article by Ruth Pollard published on April 7, 2012, about different facets of the crisis in Syria. Click here to read.
Mona Yacoubian is quoted in "Syria Rebels 'Rebound;' Will Arming Them Spark Civil Slaughter?," an April 11, 2012, piece written by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr. for AOL Defense. Click here to read.
Mona Yacoubian is quoted in "Syrian Kurds Could Tip Scales of Syrian Conflict," a March 29, 2012, piece written by JulieAnn McKellogg for Voice of America. Click here to read.
Mona Yacoubian publishes piece in the New York Times' Room for Debate Forum on March 26, 2012, highlighting the implications of Russia's evolving role in the crisis in Syria. Click here to read.
Mona Yacoubian travels to Geneva from March 26-28, 2012, to speak at a private meeting on Syria sponsored by the Geneva Center for Security Policy.
On March 3, 2012, Mona Yacoubian is quoted in a Brisbane Times article by Ruth Pollard, discussing the humanitarian situation in Homs. Click here to read.
On February 23, 2012, Mona Yacoubian publishes "Is Egypt Heading Off the Rails?" for the Stimson Center's Spotlight series. Click here to read.
On February 23, 2012, Mona Yacoubian participates in expert panel moderated by Bloomberg News correspondent Indira Lakshmanan, discussing potential international responses to Syrian unrest. Click here to watch.
Mona Yacoubian is quoted in a USA Today article by Jim Michaels published on February 20, 2012, exploring Al Qaeda's prospects for expanding its influence in Syria. Click here to read more.
Mona Yacoubian appears on Radio France International on February 15, 2012, to discuss US policy options in Syria. Click here to listen.
Mona Yacoubian is quoted in Andrew Quinn's article, "In growing Syria crisis, Obama has few options," published by Reuters on February 15, 2012. Click here to read more.
Mona Yacoubian comments on the likelihood of U.S. intervention in Syria, in a February 9, 2012, piece in the Daily Beast. Click here to read.
Mona Yacoubian participates in an online International Affairs Forum entitled "The Post-Arab Spring and U.S. Policy," on February 6, 2012. Click here to read.
Mona Yacoubian is quoted in Ruth Pollard's article in the Sydney Morning Herald, "Arab League Goes to UN as Blood Flows in Syria," on January 30, 2012. Click here to read.
Stimson Demographer in Residence Richard Cincotta publishes an article for the Foreign Policy Research Institute in January 2012 exploring the interplay between the Arab Spring protests and demographic change in the Middle East and North Africa. Click here to read.
Mona Yacoubian participates in a panel discussion on Al Jazeera's Inside Syria show on January 15, 2012, analyzing whether Syria's economic decline will act as a greater challenge to al-Assad than the uprising itself. Click here to watch.
Mona Yacoubian publishes an op-ed in the Hill's Congress Blog on developing a new Marshall Plan for the countries impacted by the Arab Spring uprisings. Click here to read.
Mona Yacoubian speaks about Syria's ongoing political instability in an interview with KPFK 90.7 FM (Los Angeles, California), on December 23, 2011. Click here to listen.
Mona Yacoubian was quoted by Sydney Morning Herald's Ruth Pollard on December 17, 2011, on the challenges facing countries across North Africa and the Middle East that were roiled by popular protests in 2011. Click here to read the article.
Mona Yacoubian was quoted by Sydney News Herald's Ruth Pollard on December 13, 2011, on the Syrian government's violent crackdown on protestors in the city of Homs. Click here to read the article.
Mona Yacoubian was interviewed by Michele Kelemen of NPR on November 22, 2011, on how the U.S. will approach dealing with new political parties formed after the Arab Spring. Click here to listen.
The Stimson Center and the George C. Marshall Foundation formally launch new collaborative project, Pathways to Progress: Peace, Prosperity, and Change in the Middle East, in November 2011. Click here for more information.
Mona Yacoubian speaks about the escalating violence in Syria on the Diane Rehm Show (NPR affiliate WAMU 88.5 FM, Washington, DC), August 17, 2011. Click here for the transcript.
Mona Yacoubian testifies before Congress on the human rights situation in Syria on July 12, 2011. Click here for the transcript.
Mona Yacoubian discusses the crisis in Yemen in Syria on Radio Times with Marty Moss-Coane (NPR affiliate WHYY 90.9 FM, Philadelphia, PA) on June 14, 2011. Click here to listen.
Recent Analysis
"The
Road to Syria's Salvation Runs Through Russia," March 1, 2012
By
Mona Yacoubian
"Hezbollah After Assad," December 1, 2011, Foreign Affairs
With all this in mind, Hezbollah may well opt for the second path, marked by an inward turn toward Lebanese politics. In shifting toward politics, Hezbollah would not completely abandon its regional ambitions nor its mantle of resistance, but would focus more on a national agenda aimed at garnering power inside Lebanon. This strategy would entail building alliances with other Lebanese communities and consolidating its role into Lebanon’s strongest political force.
"Whither the Egyptian Revolution?" October 5, 2011, Project Syndicate
Egypt's revolution toppled a dictator in February, but the country's future as a stable, functioning democracy remains uncertain. The West is, of course, limited in its ability to shape the transition process. Nonetheless, the potential for constructive influence remains considerable, and it should be responsive to those in Egypt who favor liberal ideas, democratic institutions, and broad distribution of the benefits of economic development.
"Saving Syria from Civil War," October 5, 2011, Middle East Channel, Foreign Policy
As Syria's uprising lurches toward its seventh month, fears that the country will descend into a sectarian civil war are mounting. Several troubling developments suggest the potential transformation of Syria's popular demonstrations into armed insurgency and sectarian chaos. Long feared as the Syrian uprising's nightmare scenario, a sectarian civil war would be catastrophic for Syria and could enflame the region. With such high stakes, averting a sectarian war in Syria is critical for ensuring the stability of a region amidst momentous transformation.
"Regional Dynamics of the Syrian Uprising: The Impact on Lebanon and Hezbollah", October 2011, U.S. Institute of Peace
Lebanon’s core interests in Syria revolve around the twin goals of preserving stability and promoting economic interests. Given the historic power imbalance between the two countries, Lebanon has traditionally deferred to Syria’s predominance in the relationship. Moreover, the two countries’ enduring political, economic, and social ties constitute a vast network of influence and relationships that transcend borders. Lebanon’s fate is deeply intertwined with Syria’s ultimate destiny.
Seismic Shift: Understanding Change in the Middle East, May 2011, Stimson Center
The momentous events sweeping the Arab world since late 2010 raise important questions about the art and science of analyzing political and societal events. In an age of information surplus, which creates the illusion that one can easily know what is happening anywhere in the world, big surprises still occur. Societies change, governments make choices that have consequences, and the political life of a country or a region is transformed.
"Impact
of the Arab Uprisings," April 18, 2011, U. S. Institute of
Peace
The uprisings mark a watershed event, with the Arab world irrevocably changed. Essentially, the social contract governing the relationship between Arab ruling regimes and their populations is in tatters. The contract’s fundamental precept demanded popular acquiescence to regime control—the suppression of their aspirations and muzzling of their voice—in exchange for government guarantees of decent living conditions – the provision of jobs, housing, affordable food prices, education and health care. Over the past decade, if not longer, the social contract’s foundations began to crack. Deteriorating socioeconomic conditions and a yearning for freedom across the Arab world underscored the core flaws of this arrangement. The uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia as well as popular protests across the region are the most dramatic evidence of this new Arab awakening.
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Program Director
Ellen Laipson is president and chief executive officer of Stimson. She also directs the Middle East/Southwest Asia program, and focuses in particular on security issues in the Gulf region. Laipson joined Stimson in 2002, after 25 years of government service. Read More >>
Project Director
Mona Yacoubian joined the Stimson Center in 2011. She previously served as a Special Advisor and Senior Program Officer on the Middle East at the US Institute of Peace where her work focused on Lebanon and Syria as well as broader issues related to democratization in the Arab world. Ms.Yacoubian has worked as a consultant on the Middle East for several years. From 1990-1997, she served as the North Africa analyst at the US Department of State. Read More >>