Project

Crises & Consequences in Southern Asia

Reducing nuclear dangers and fostering strategic stability on the subcontinent

About the Project

Nowhere is the risk of strategic instability and nuclear exchange greater than in South Asia. India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed neighbors who have fought several wars over the past seven decades and continue to risk potentially catastrophic escalation during recurring crises. Even more concerning, chances of miscalculation appear to be growing along with both sides’ tolerance for risk, strengthened arsenals, doctrinal shifts, and more frequent confrontation.

The project produces policy analysis and academic research on strategic trends and geopolitical dynamics in Southern Asia to better understand the causal processes, patterns, and lessons from previous crises on the Subcontinent. We empower rising analysts, carry out field research, and convene forums for regional engagement to mitigate strategic risk in South Asia. This dispassionate, reasoned approach is vital to generating the informed analysis necessary to undergird a more stable and secure region.

Research & Writing

Working Paper

An early assessment of available evidence on what transpired in the recent India-Pakistan crisis and its implications.
May 28, 2025

Commentary

For Pakistan, the lessons from 2019 represent a dangerous move towards limited war below the nuclear threshold
March 1, 2022

Commentary

In a South Asian Voices interview, Lisa Curtis reviews the U.S. response to the Balakot crisis and offers advice to future policymakers.
February 28, 2022

Commentary

After the Balakot crisis both India and Pakistan claimed victory, which has implications for the use of military force in a future crisis.
February 28, 2022

Commentary

Geopolitical alignments in South Asia are not the sole lens through which China sees India-Pakistan tensions
February 28, 2022

Commentary

A new survey experiment finds public support for escalating rather than de-escalating a crisis in response to provocation from an adversary
June 2, 2021

Op-Ed

This article was originally published in War On The Rocks.
March 29, 2021

Op-Ed

This article was originally published in War On The Rocks.
February 26, 2021

Policy Paper

The nuclear taboo, a normative inhibition against nuclear first use, is weak in Pakistan and risks being undermined in India
February 22, 2021

Commentary

This article was originally published in The Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs.
January 15, 2021

Op-Ed

This article was originally published in 9DASHLINE.
July 31, 2020

Op-Ed

This article was originally published in War on the Rocks.
July 10, 2020

Op-Ed

The article was originally published in War on the Rocks.
July 2, 2020

Commentary

This article was originally published by the Observer Research Foundation.
June 23, 2020

Op-Ed

This article was originally published in The Washington Post.
June 17, 2020

Policy Memo

As India and Pakistan push the limits of low-level conflict in repeated crises, increasing Pakistani investments in conventional capabilities could help to shore up deterrence stability and reduce the risk of nuclear use
April 8, 2020

Chapter

This article was originally published in The Nonproliferation Review Journal on March 26, 2020.
March 27, 2020

Policy Memo

Beyond seeing the highest levels of escalation on the Subcontinent in decades, the 2019 Pulwama/Balakot crisis underscored the evolving role of third parties in crisis mediation and de-escalation.
March 25, 2020

Policy Paper

Two decade review: South Asia crises will likely escalate further & faster as escalation pressure and crisis management challenges grow
February 28, 2020

Op-Ed

This article was originally published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.
February 26, 2020

Impact

Stimson’s South Asia program hosts dialogue with partners to study effects of low-probability, high-risk nuclear events in the region.
December 23, 2019

Book

A collection of analyses of nuclear competition among China, India, and Pakistan
September 5, 2017

Sub-Projects

There are no subprojects associated with this project.

Events


WEBSITE

Investigating Crises
This website highlights a South Asia program book, Investigating Crises: South Asia’s Lessons, Evolving Dynamics, and Trajectories. This book builds on three decades of Stimson research and writing on the threat of conflict in South Asia. Within these ten chapters, authors from China, India, Pakistan, and the United States offer analysis based on their personal experiences and scholarship.