North Africa Regional Outlook: March 25, 2026

From Sahel security recalibration to Iran war aftershocks, North Africa faces energy shocks, fiscal strain, and intensifying competition over influence.

From intensifying security recalibration across the Sahel to the ripple effects of the Iran war driving energy shocks, fiscal strain, and strategic realignments across North Africa, and renewed geopolitical competition over energy corridors and regional influence.

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From the Stimson Center

Deeper dives from the Stimson Center.

Uncovering the Roots of Crisis in the Sahel

Dr. Federica Saini Fasanotti writes for Stimson Center that state collapse, climate stress, and demographic pressures drive escalating violence and fragmentation across the Sahel, with mounting regional and global consequences.

Has Africa Outgrown Aid?

Stimson Center North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program Director Hafed Al-Ghwell writes for Arab News that Africa is increasingly driving economic growth without aid, but weak institutions and governance gaps mean external assistance remains critical for sustaining human development and essential services.

A Conversation with H.E. Ambassador Sékou Berthe: Mali’s Strategic Outlook

The Stimson Center hosted a public fireside chat with Ambassador Sékou Berthe, Ambassador of Mali to the United States on Mali’s political transition, security challenges, regional diplomacy, and US–Mali relations.

Libya’s Economic Future: A Conversation with Jonathan Winer

The Stimson Center hosted a discussion with Jonathan M. Winer, former U.S. Special Envoy for Libya, examining the structural challenges shaping Libya’s economic future and investment climate.

On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

Reuters

Multiple Blasts Hit Northeast Nigeria’s Maiduguri

Three suspected suicide bombings struck Maiduguri on March 16, killing at least 27 people and injuring 146 at a post office, the Monday Market, and the University of Maiduguri Teaching Hospital.

L’Observateur (French)

Soaring Fuel Prices. How to Cushion the Blow to the Economy and Households?

French-language article from Burkina Faso examining how the fuel price surge driven by the Iran conflict is hitting the Burkinabe economy and households, and what policy tools might cushion the shock.

Al Jazeera

CAF Strips Senegal of AFCON Title, Morocco Declared African Champions

In a landmark ruling on March 17, CAF’s Appeal Board reversed the result of the January 18 AFCON final, declaring that Senegal forfeited by walking off the pitch for 17 minutes in protest of a penalty decision. The result is now officially recorded as a 3-0 Morocco victory; Senegal announced it will appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.

Reuters

Drone Attack from Sudan Kills 17 in Chad

A cross-border drone strike hit the Chadian border town of Tine on March 19 as mourners gathered for a funeral, killing 17 civilians including children. Chad’s president ordered the military to retaliate against any further attacks from Sudan and evacuated 2,500 border residents; no party claimed responsibility, with the RSF and SAF each blaming the other.

Business Insider Africa

Ghanaian Billionaire’s Firm Enters Talks to Take Over Damang Gold Mine

A firm linked to a Ghanaian billionaire has entered acquisition talks for the Damang gold mine in Ghana, as a South African mining company exits the project.

Reuters

Chad Plans to Send 800 Security Personnel to Haiti

Chad intends to deploy 800 police officers and gendarmes to Haiti by June, after training with European and American partners, to join the UN-backed Gang Suppression Force replacing the Kenyan-led mission as it scales back.

North Africa Post

Morocco Signs Paris Declaration on Nuclear Financing

Morocco has signed the Paris Declaration on nuclear energy financing, signaling its interest in exploring nuclear power as part of its long-term energy diversification strategy alongside renewables.

Reuters

Libya’s State Oil Firm Redirects Sharara Flows After Fire, Output Continues

A pipeline leak at Libya’s largest oilfield, Sharara (capacity 300,000-320,000 bpd), caused a fire on March 18. Libya’s NOC redirected flows via the El Feel pipeline to Mellitah port and through the Hamada pipeline to Zawiya storage, saying the measures would significantly reduce losses with no casualties reported.

Reuters

Libya’s El Feel Oilfield Shutdown Since Thursday

El Feel oilfield (capacity 80,000-90,000 bpd), operated by the Eni-NOC joint venture Mellitah Oil and Gas, has been shut since March 20 because its pipeline was commandeered to transport Sharara crude after the Sharara pipeline fire. Production is expected to resume in one to two weeks.

Reuters

Egypt’s Energy Import Bill More Than Doubles as Global Prices Surge

Egypt’s Prime Minister said the country’s monthly energy import bill has more than doubled since the US-Israel war on Iran began, with the natural gas import bill nearly tripling from $560 million to roughly $1.65 billion per month, and diesel prices rising from $665 to $1,604 per ton.

Insecurity Insight

Attacks on Health Care in Sudan

Monitoring report documenting attacks on health facilities and medical personnel in Sudan during the cited period, as part of the ongoing Sudan civil war’s devastating impact on the health system.

Reuters

Egypt Says It Will Pay $1.3 Billion in Arrears to Oil Companies by June

Egypt’s petroleum ministry announced it will accelerate repayment of $1.3 billion in remaining arrears to international oil companies by June, ahead of its previous timetable, in hopes of reviving foreign drilling and reversing declining domestic gas production.

Reuters

Moroccan Central Bank Holds Benchmark Rate at 2.25%

Bank Al-Maghrib held its key rate steady for the fourth consecutive quarter on March 17, projecting 5.6% GDP growth in 2026 driven by an agricultural rebound after seven years of drought, with inflation forecast at just 0.8%. It flagged the Middle East conflict as the main external risk, particularly through energy import costs.

Business Insider Africa

Eni Discovers Major Gas Reserves Offshore Libya Amid Europe Energy Shift

Coverage of Eni’s announcement of two new offshore Libyan gas discoveries totaling over 1 trillion cubic feet, framed in the context of Europe’s scramble for non-Russian and non-Gulf energy alternatives.

Reuters

Morocco Fans Celebrate “Justice” After AFCON Title Decision, Appeal Worries Linger

Follow-up report on Moroccan fan reaction to CAF’s ruling awarding Morocco the AFCON title; fans welcomed the decision but expressed concern that Senegal’s forthcoming CAS appeal could reverse it again.

Reuters

Italy’s Meloni to Travel to Algeria as Iran War Disrupts Qatar LNG Supplies

Italian PM Meloni will visit Algeria to secure alternative gas supplies after Iranian strikes knocked out 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity for an estimated 3-5 years. Algeria currently supplies around 30% of Italy’s annual gas consumption and is now central to Rome’s energy security pivot.

Peoples Dispatch

Niger’s Foreign Ministry Summoned European Envoy to Protest Interference in Internal Affairs

Niger’s junta foreign ministry summoned a European envoy to formally protest what it characterized as European interference in Niger’s domestic affairs, likely connected to EU statements on Niger’s political transition.

Business Insider Africa

China Set to Cut Solar Incentives for Africa Days After Elon Musk Negotiates

China is preparing to reduce solar incentive programs for Africa shortly after Elon Musk’s reported negotiations on energy deals, raising questions about the continuity of Chinese clean energy partnerships on the continent.

Reuters

Trio of African Countries Eyeing Debt-for-Nature Swaps, Nature Conservancy Says

Three African countries are in discussions with the Nature Conservancy about potential debt-for-nature swap deals, which would exchange portions of sovereign debt for commitments to conservation spending, a model gaining traction in Africa amid tight fiscal conditions.

Business Insider Africa

Africa’s Longest Monorail Line Begins Operations as Egypt Opens 565km Cairo Route

Egypt inaugurated a 565km monorail line in Cairo, reported as Africa’s longest monorail, marking a major milestone in Egypt’s urban transport infrastructure expansion.

The Africa Report

US-Africa Week Ahead: Ghana’s Mahama Pushes for Reparations at the UN

Weekly preview noting Ghanaian President John Mahama’s push for a reparation’s discussion at the UN, alongside other U.S.-Africa diplomatic developments for the week ahead.

IISD

ICJ Advisory Opinion on Climate Change

IISD project page tracking the International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion process on states’ obligations under international law regarding climate change, a landmark legal development with major implications for Africa’s climate litigation and adaptation financing.

The Economist

Africa After Aid Is More Resilient Than You Might Think

Economist editorial arguing that the USAID cuts have not produced the economic catastrophe many predicted, citing IMF data showing 11 of the world’s 15 fastest-growing economies in 2026 are in Africa, and arguing this reveals a deeper domestic economic resilience than prevailing narratives acknowledged.

Bloomberg

Spain Weighs Buying More Algerian Gas as War Tightens Supplies

Spain is exploring purchasing additional Algerian gas to compensate for supply disruptions caused by the Iran war’s impact on Gulf energy exports, building on the Trans-Mediterranean pipeline that already links Algeria and Spain.

Business Insider Africa

Top 10 Best Airports in Africa for 2026 According to Latest Ranking

New airport quality rankings identifying the top 10 African airports for 2026, reflecting improvements in infrastructure, passenger experience, and connectivity.

African Development Bank

AfDB Launches $2 Billion 5-Year Global Benchmark Bond

The African Development Bank launched a $2 billion global benchmark bond due March 2031 at a coupon of 3.625%, with proceeds funding AfDB’s development operations across Africa.

Le Point (French)

From the War in Ukraine to the Strikes against Iran, the Maghreb is Paying the Price

French-language analysis of how Maghreb countries (Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya) are navigating the fallout from the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, balancing their relationships with Washington, Tehran, and the Gulf while managing domestic energy and economic pressures.

Global Arbitration Review

Dutch Caribbean Court Refuses to Enforce Against Libya

A Dutch Caribbean court declined to enforce an arbitration award against Libya, adding to the complex international legal landscape surrounding Libyan sovereign assets and ongoing disputes with foreign claimants.

Zawya

Egypt IDSC Highlights Fluctuations in Fertilizers and Building Materials Prices on March 16

Egypt’s Information and Decision Support Center (IDSC) published price monitoring data for fertilizers and building materials, showing volatility linked to the global energy shock following the Iran war.

The Fintech Times

Visa Targets North Africa Growth with New Egypt, Libya, and Sudan Sub-Region

Visa has restructured its regional operations to create a new North Africa sub-region covering Egypt, Libya, and Sudan, signaling strategic investment in a market it sees as a growth priority for digital payments.

Libya Observer

Egypt and Greece Reaffirm Support for Libya-Led Political Process

Egypt and Greece jointly reaffirmed their backing for a Libyan-led political resolution, signaling continued Mediterranean neighbor engagement in Libya’s stalled unification process.

AllAfrica

Libya: Appeal Trial of the Former French President – When Will Nicolas Sarkozy’s Descent into Hell End?

Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy has returned to court on appeal over alleged illegal Libyan campaign financing, facing significant legal and political consequences if convicted again.

BeurFM (French)

Algerians Living Abroad Will Be Able to Return Without a Visa until 2026!

Reporting that Algerians living abroad will be able to return to Algeria without a visa through 2026, a measure facilitating diaspora travel and remittance visits.

The Arab Weekly

Hit Drones, Libya: Russian Tanker Drifts in Mediterranean, Posing Threat

Report on a damaged Russian tanker drifting in the Mediterranean off Libya following a drone strike, posing an environmental and navigational threat; connected to the broader Russia-Ukraine conflict extension into Mediterranean Sea lanes.

CNews (French)

Algeria: Law Criminalizing French Colonization Expected to be Definitively Adopted this Monday

Report on Algeria’s parliament advancing a law that would criminalize French colonialism, framed as part of intensifying historical memory politics and Franco-Algerian tensions.

La Tribune (French)

Algeria: Urban Surveillance in the Age of Chinese and Russian Technologies

Analysis of Algeria’s adoption of Chinese and Russian urban surveillance technologies, raising questions about civil liberties and the country’s digital sovereignty choices amid geopolitical realignment.

Liberation

Boualem Sansal Claims to be Leaving Gallimard for Grasset Due to a “Disagreement” During His “Detention in Algeria”

Reporting that imprisoned Franco-Algerian author Boualem Sansal has parted ways with his publisher Gallimard due to a disagreement that arose during his ongoing detention in Algeria.

Middle East Eye

Inside the Secret US-Led Talks to Solve the Western Sahara Conflict

Investigative piece on the closed-door US-brokered negotiations on Western Sahara involving Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania, and the Polisario Front, including details on the Madrid meeting dynamics and U.S. diplomatic strategy.

Business Insider Africa

Africa Becomes Europe’s Gas Lifeline Amid Global Energy Crisis

Analysis of how Africa, particularly Algeria, Nigeria, and Mozambique, has emerged as a critical alternative gas supplier for Europe following the disruption of Gulf LNG supplies caused by the Iran war.

Jeune Afrique (French)

In Washington, the Threat of the Bill that would Classify the Polisario as a “Terrorist Organization” is becoming Clearer.

Reporting on the advancing prospects of U.S. Congressional legislation that would designate the Polisario Front as a terrorist organization, a move that would significantly shift American policy on Western Sahara and further pressure Algeria.

Yabiladi

U.S. Considers Morocco as Fertilizer Supply Option Amid Iran War Disruption

Report on an unidentified country or company considering Morocco’s OCP Group as a fertilizer supply alternative following Gulf supply disruption and rising prices caused by the Iran war.

El Pais

Western Sahara Conflict Underpins Morocco and Algeria’s Selective Silence on Attack Against Iran

Analysis of how the Western Sahara rivalry shapes Morocco and Algeria’s carefully calibrated public responses to the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran, with both countries avoiding statements that would alienate key partners on either side.

The Guardian

Africa Particularly Vulnerable as Iran Conflict Disrupts Supply Chains

Report on African countries’ exposure to the supply chain disruptions from the Iran war, including energy price shocks, shipping route disruption, and food import cost increases hitting the continent’s most import-dependent economies.

The Economist

Africa’s Richest Man Has Ambitious Plans for the Continent

Profile of Aliko Dangote and his expansion plans across African energy, food, and infrastructure sectors, framed against the backdrop of the current energy market disruption boosting Dangote Refinery’s strategic importance.

AP

Iran War Tests Gulf Funds’ Renewable Energy Commitments

Report examining whether the Gulf states’ renewable energy investment programs will be sustained or redirected as the Iran conflict consumes financial and political capital, with implications for African green energy partnerships funded by Gulf sovereign wealth funds.

Business Insider Africa

African Banks Face Survival Mode as Fintech Disruptors Reshape the Region’s Financial Landscape

Analysis of how African traditional banks are under growing competitive pressure from fintech firms, forcing strategic pivots as digital payment platforms and neobanks expand market share.

Business Insider Africa

Australian Gold Miner Exits One of Africa’s Largest Undeveloped Gold Projects

An Australian mining company is withdrawing from a major undeveloped African gold project, likely reflecting financing challenges, political risk reassessment, or strategic portfolio rebalancing.

Mining.com

Cobalt Shortages Driven by Congo Curbs Seen Lasting Through 2030

Analysis finding that cobalt supply shortages caused by DRC export restrictions and regulatory changes are expected to persist through at least 2030, with significant implications for EV battery supply chains globally.

The Guardian

“Invasive” AI-Led Mass Surveillance in Africa Violating Freedoms, Warn Experts

Countries across the continent have spent more than $2 billion on Chinese tracking technology that is not ‘necessary or proportionate’, new report finds.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

REPORT

Global Terrorism Index 2026 Report

Annual Institute for Economics and Peace report ranking countries by terrorism impact, tracking trends in terrorist activity globally; likely highlights Africa as home to some of the world’s most terrorism-affected countries given JNIM, ISWAP, and al-Shabaab trends.

REPORT

The Iran War and the Global Terrorism Threat

Supplementary Institute for Economics and Peace analysis examining how the US-Israel war on Iran may reshape the global terrorism landscape, including potential blowback, proxy activation, and regional spillover.

REPORT

Compendium of Good Practices on Quality Infrastructure 2026

OECD reference compendium documenting policy approaches and case studies for high-quality infrastructure investment, relevant for African infrastructure financing discussions.

REPORT

Industrial Policy for Development: Approaches in the 21st Century

World Bank report offers the first comprehensive guide to industrial policy for development in the 21st century

COMMENTARY

Crossing the Red Line: The U.S.-Iran Shadow War Reaches the Gates of North Africa

A Middle East Forum analysis of how the U.S.-Israel military campaign against Iran is extending its strategic consequences to North Africa, including implications for Algerian gas leverage, Libyan stability, Egypt’s economic exposure, and Morocco’s regional positioning.

COMMENTARY

Realizing Africa’s Digital Trade Potential Under the AfCFTA

A Brookings Institution analysis of how the African Continental Free Trade Area’s digital trade provisions could be operationalized to unlock cross-border e-commerce and digital services, and what governance and infrastructure gaps need to be addressed.

REPORT

Central Sahel

Reference page from the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect tracking atrocity risks and protection concerns in Mali, including ongoing JNIM violence and civilian casualties.

REPORT

How the U.S.-Israel Attack on Iran Is Impacting Africa

A GC Human Rights Preparedness report documenting immediate and anticipated humanitarian, economic, and security impacts on African countries from the US-Israel war on Iran, covering food security, energy prices, remittances, and regional security spillover.

COMMENTARY

Italy-Libya Cooperation: Grey Areas in EU-funded Migration Cooperation

SOS Mediterranee investigative analysis of the Italy-Libya migration cooperation framework financed by the EU, examining accountability gaps, allegations of human rights abuses by Libyan Coast Guard forces funded under the arrangement, and political pressures preventing reform.

REPORT

African Union Theme of the Year

The African Union’s 2026 theme prioritizes sustainable water and sanitation, calling for coordinated action, investment, and practical solutions ahead of upcoming consultations.

REPORT

Morocco Country Report

Allianz Trade’s economic risk assessment for Morocco, covering political stability, business environment, payment behavior, and trade outlook.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

The World Bank’s MENA Economic Update: Jobs and Women: Untapped Talent, Unrealized Growth

Watch Jesica Torres, Senior Economist at the office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank, speaking at the online seminar on “The World Bank’s MENA Economic Update: Jobs and Women: Untapped Talent, Unrealized Growth”.

The Age of Africa 2026

The Age of Africa Annual Symposium at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy is a leading forum for critical analysis and strategic deliberation, dedicated to examining Africa’s central role in shaping the twenty-first century.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

WEBINAR

A Conversation with H.E. Ambassador Sékou Berthe: Mali’s Strategic Outlook

The Stimson Center hosted a public fireside chat with Ambassador Sékou Berthe, Ambassador of Mali to the United States on Mali’s political transition, security challenges, regional diplomacy, and US–Mali relations.

WEBINAR

Libya’s Economic Future: A Conversation with Jonathan Winer

The Stimson Center hosted a discussion with Jonathan M. Winer, former U.S. Special Envoy for Libya, examining the structural challenges shaping Libya’s economic future and investment climate.

WEBINAR

The Search for Peace in Libya: A Book Talk with Stephanie Williams

Stimson Center hosted Stephanie Williams, author of “Libya Since Qaddafi,” for a public discussion exploring Libya’s conflict, diplomacy, and lessons for international peacemaking.

PODCAST

Italy is Making Inroads in North Africa, ENI Announces a Major Discovery Off the Coast of Libya: Should We Invest There?

BFM TV (French) financial broadcast segment on Italy’s growing strategic footprint in the Maghreb following Eni’s major Libyan offshore gas discovery and Meloni’s Algeria visit, asking whether Libyan energy assets are now attractive for investors.

Job Opportunities

Career moves, fellowships, and calls for applications—all in one place.

Splash International
Regional Director for Africa (HQ)
The Regional Director, Program Delivery Africa provides strategic and operational leadership to ensure high quality, on time, and on budget delivery of Project WISE II across Splash’s African countries.

Moroccan Association of Public Policies
Call for Papers
Announces the Call for Proposals for the 2nd International Conference on Governance and Public Action, to be held on April 14–15, 2026, at the Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences Agdal, Mohammed V University of Rabat.

Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development
Libya, Country Finance Officer
Under the authority of the Country Finance Manager, the Country Finance Officer (CFO) will oversee supporting the Country Finance Manager in his/her functions. More specifically, she/he will supervise the implementation and follow-up of fiscal management and control tools. She/he will also oversee training of the Finance Team.

Values for Impact
Call for Papers
Under the theme Solidarity, Authenticity, and Prosperity, the conference will convene scholars, policymakers, regulators, and industry professionals to discuss how Islamic finance can promote solidarity-oriented and inclusive entrepreneurship, support authenticity through stronger real-economy linkages, and enable prosperity via trustworthy digital and AI-enabled financial services, while welcoming comparative perspectives on ethical and values-based finance.

EBRD
Principal Banker (Cairo, Egypt)
Senior banker position at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in Cairo.

ACEP Africa
About the Africa Climate Academy
Africa Climate Academy is an educational platform designed to foster a paradigm shift in the understanding and discourse surrounding climate change, energy transition, and its implications for Africa. This one-week programme targets policymakers, media professionals, civil society leaders, and academia, providing them with new perspectives on the risks associated with oil dependence and the abundant opportunities offered by sustainable energy alternatives.

The International Organization for Migration
Project Associate (Cairo, Egypt)
The International Organization for Migration Egypt is hiring a Project Associate (Joint Platform) to support programme coordination and project implementation at the Country Office in Cairo.

The Hague Academy
Shiraka Scholarship
Information on the Shiraka scholarship program at The Hague Academy of International Law, providing funding for participants from Arab Spring countries to attend courses in international law.

United Nations Industrial Development
Market Researcher
The United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) is seeking experienced, qualified market research service providers. We are specifically looking for professionals who can design and conduct comprehensive market research tailored to Egypt’s unique market landscape.

Action Against Hunger
Deputy Country Director for Support/Operations
Under the supervision of the Country Director, the Deputy will coordinate HR, financial, and logistical strategies; oversee support and operational teams; and ensure efficient, compliant, and integrated program management while optimizing resources and mitigating risks (financial, legal, fraud, or abuse).
 
CORE Group
Deputy Director
CORE Group is hiring a Deputy Director and Technical Lead (DD/TL) to provide overall technical leadership for CGPP Niger’s integrated health portfolio, ensuring that program design and implementation are evidence-based and aligned with national and global standards.
 
MSI Reproductive Choices
Country Director for Mali
MSI Reproductive Choices is seeking a Country Director who will be responsible for delivering results for women and their families, driving programmatic excellence, and implementing best practice at scale in Mali.
 
Oxfam Solidarité
Program Coordinator (Algeria)
The Program Coordinator will manage the day-to-day operational functioning of Oxfam’s WASH and EFSL programs, ensuring that technical teams are organized, plans are realistic and tracked, budgets are monitored, donor reporting obligations are met, and field data is transformed into usable analysis. 

Medecins Sans Frontieres
Consultant for Integrated Nutrition Grant Delivery

MSF UK is seeking Consultants to establish and maintain effective ways of working across public health, operations, supply, logistics and finance systems to ensure optimal results for the communities served by MSF, in full compliance with internal and external reporting requirements.

Finca Ventures Prize Competition
Call for Applications
The 2026 call invites impact entrepreneurs to apply by April 10 for programs supporting innovative fintech solutions that expand financial inclusion for underserved populations.

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