North Africa Regional Outlook: April 22, 2026

From Sudan war grinding into a prolonged regional crisis to the Iran war continuing to drive energy volatility, disrupt supply chains, and push Europe to reassess routes and energy security strategies across the Mediterranean

By  Hafed Al Ghwell  •  Lana Bleik  •  Yusuf Can  •  Alexander Farley

From the war in Sudan grinding into a prolonged regional crisis to U.S.–Iran tensions continuing to drive energy volatility, disrupt supply chains, and push Europe to reassess routes and energy security strategies —explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel.

Read the North Africa Weekly on LinkedIn or join the conversation on X: @StimsonNAfrica

From the Stimson Center

Deeper dives from the Stimson Center.

A Conversation with H.E. Ambassador Taher El-Sonni: Libya’s Strategic Outlook

Join us on April 30, 2026 for A fireside chat with Libya’s UN Ambassador Taher El-Sonni on Libya’s political outlook, energy role, and regional security amid shifting Mediterranean and Sahel dynamics.

Sudan: How One of the Most Severe Humanitarian Crises Became Marginalized in the Global System

Stimson Nonresident Fellow Amb Mohamed Ali Chihi writes on how Sudan’s catastrophic war became a neglected crisis, exposing geopolitical selectivity and the erosion of global humanitarian response.

Reassessing Tunisia’s Strategic Importance for the United States

Ambassador (ret) Joey R. Hood, in a new issue brief for the Stimson Center, writes on U.S. policy options to leverage Tunisia for regional security, economic stability, and Sahel-focused cooperation.

Mali’s Post-Alignment Strategy: Sovereignty, Partnerships, and the Limits of Stabilization

Yahia Zoubir and Abdelkader Abderrahmane write for Stimson Center on how Mali’s shift in external partnerships has failed to improve security, governance, or economic conditions

A Conversation with H.E. Ambassador Duarte Lopes: Europe, North Africa, and the Mediterranean

Watch this public fireside chat with Ambassador Duarte Lopes on Europe’s engagement with North Africa and the Sahel, Mediterranean security dynamics, and Portugal’s role in EU–Africa partnerships.

On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

Jeune Afrique

Facing the AES Juntas, a Coalition of Sahelian Democrats Organizes from Brussels

Malian, Nigerien, and Burkinabè exiles launched the “Alliance of Sahelian Democrats” to peacefully contest the AES juntas through international lobbying and diplomatic pressure from Brussels.

Africanews

700 Killed in Sudan Drone Strikes as Humanitarian Crisis Deepens: UN

UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher reports nearly 700 civilians killed in near-daily drone strikes since January 2026, concentrated in Kordofan and Darfur.

The North Africa Post

Sahara: EU Smacks Again Algeria with Endorsement of Morocco’s Autonomy Plan

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, meeting FM Bourita in Rabat, reaffirmed EU alignment with UN Security Council Resolution 2797 endorsing Morocco’s Autonomy Plan.

Maghrebi.org

Libya’s Rivals Join Forces as Landmark Military Exercise Begins

Rival Libyan forces from east and west jointly participated for the first time in years in AFRICOM’s Flintlock 26 exercise in Sirte.

Maghrebi.org

Libya Emerges as Launch Point in Russian Tanker Attack

Ukrainian operatives reportedly launched a drone strike on the Russian tanker Arctic Metagaz from western Libya.

Morocco World News

Ignacio Ramonet Visits Morocco for Lectures on AI, Journalism, and Geopolitics

Former Le Monde Diplomatique editor delivered lectures in Casablanca and Rabat on journalism in the AI age and geopolitics.

Morocco World News

U.S., Morocco Military Cooperation Deepens with Link-16 Integration Test

Ahead of African Lion 2026, U.S. and Moroccan forces conducted the first-ever Link-16 secure-communications interoperability test with an African partner.

Al Jazeera

After Three Years of War, Sudan Army and RSF Locked in Military Impasse

Analysis finds Khartoum has regained fragile normalcy under SAF control, but a military deadlock persists in Kordofan and Darfur.

Al Jazeera

Sudan’s Prime Minister: This Is the Path Out of the Horrors of War

Op-ed by Sudan’s Prime Minister laying out a vision for ending the war through civilian transitional authority and international engagement.

Tchadinfos

Chad: National Assembly Ratifies Creation of the Regional Institute for Education in the Sahel

Chadian deputies ratified the convention establishing EDUSAHEL, a new regional body to coordinate Sahel education policy.

Rapide Info Mauritania

Mauritania-France: The Stakes of Ghazouani’s State Visit to Paris

President Ghazouani arrived for a three-day state visit culminating in an April 15 Elysée meeting with Macron, positioning Mauritania as France’s privileged Sahel partner.

Pravda Niger

Burkina Faso Army Goes on the Offensive, JNIM “Emir” Is Killed: Summary of Fighting in the Sahel

Weekly Sahel security roundup covering Burkinabè army offensives, the killing of a senior JNIM commander, and continued ISSP expansion in Niger’s Tillabéri region.

Pravda Mali

Is the Sahel Choosing a Side? Or Not

Analysis of whether the AES states are truly locking in a pro-Russia alignment or maintaining pragmatic flexibility with multiple partners.

Egypt Independent

Economic Reforms Boost Ability to Handle Regional Shocks, Attract Investment

Egyptian officials cite structural reforms as bolstering resilience to Middle East war spillover and investor confidence despite Suez Canal revenue pressures.

Egypt Independent

Egypt to Establish Massive 225-Acre Olympic Village Project in Red Sea

Egypt announced plans for a 225-acre Olympic Village on the Red Sea as part of its sports-tourism diversification strategy.

Human Rights Watch

Sudan: World Leaders Need to Act on Ongoing Atrocities

HRW called on Berlin conference leaders to commit to time-bound civilian-protection measures, referencing a recent RSF drone strike on a White Nile hospital.

Africanews

Sudan’s ‘Abandoned Crisis’ Enters Fourth Year as Calls for Peace Grow Louder

Sudan enters its fourth year with 59,000+ killed and 34 million in need; Chad hosts over 900,000 Sudanese refugees.

Africanews

War Pushes Poverty in Sudan to 70 Percent, UN Warns

A UN assessment shows Sudan’s poverty rate has surged to around 70% with over 11 million displaced.

OHCHR

UN Human Rights Expert on Sudan Renews Calls for Dialogue, Accountability as Conflict Enters Fourth Year

UN Designated Expert, Radhouane Nouicer, expressed alarm at continued IHL/IHRL violations and urged accountability measures as Sudan enters its fourth year of war.

International Committee of the Red Cross

ICRC President: Patterns of Warfare that Disregard Human Life and Dignity cannot Continue as Sudan War Enters Fourth Year

ICRC condemned drone warfare, endemic sexual violence, and attacks on civilian infrastructure in Sudan; 20+ Red Cross/Red Crescent staff have been killed in three years.

European Commission (DG ECHO)

EU and Member States Pledge Over €812 Million in Response to Crisis in Sudan

Funding announcement from the Berlin conference; €360.8 million European Commission share, including €145.3 million for regional refugee response in Chad, South Sudan, and others.

UK Government

Third International Sudan Conference, Berlin: Co-Hosts’ Statement

Joint communiqué from UK, Germany, EU, France, U.S., and AU welcoming UN Envoy Pekka Haavisto, demanding humanitarian access, and announcing combined pledges of approximately €1.5 billion.

UNICEF

At Least 245 Child Casualties in Sudan in the First 90 Days of 2026

UNICEF reports 160 children killed and 85 maimed in Q1 2026, a 50% increase year-over-year; 2026 funding request of $962.9 million is only 16% received.

France 24

After Three Years of War, Exiled Sudanese Find Their Place in Kenya

Feature on how Nairobi has become a hub for Sudanese refugees, including political figures and armed group representatives.

Al Jazeera

UN Aid Chief Warns of Possible ‘Full-Scale Famine’ in South Sudan

UN Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher briefs the Security Council on Sudan-spillover risks and the dangers of drawing down UNMISS.

The Africa Report

IMF Outlook for Africa: War in the Middle East Threatens Hard-Gained Reforms

Analysis of the IMF’s April 2026 sub-Saharan Africa and MENA regional outlooks, examining how the Iran war and commodity price shocks are eroding the fiscal and macroeconomic reforms many African countries, including Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco, had achieved over the previous two years.

Bloomberg

IMF Says Egypt Has Built Buffers to Tackle Shocks as Pound Gains

The IMF assessed that Egypt’s reform program has strengthened its macroeconomic buffers, with the Egyptian Pound showing resilience despite Suez Canal revenue losses and higher import costs stemming from the Strait of Hormuz closure.

The New York Times

European Leaders Discuss an International Mission to Restore Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz

European leaders held emergency consultations over a potential multinational maritime mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with North African countries Egypt and Libya identified as logistically critical partners for any such operation given their proximity to the affected sea lanes.

OilPrice.com

Europe Faces Summer Jet Fuel Crisis as Iran War Slashes Supply

Analysis documenting how Europe’s accelerated refinery closures over the past decade and heavy dependence on Middle Eastern kerosene imports have left the continent facing a potential summer aviation fuel shortage, with the IEA warning of roughly six weeks of remaining supply and Lufthansa already cutting capacity.

OilPrice.com

Europe’s Energy Problem Isn’t the Transition — It’s That Europe Never Finished It

Commentary arguing that Europe’s real energy vulnerability exposed by the Iran war is not that it moved too fast on renewables but that it invested in clean generation without building the grids, storage, and flexibility infrastructure needed to complete the transition, and that the answer is acceleration rather than retreat.

Morocco World News

Nornickel Joins Global Shippers Shifting to Morocco’s Tanger Med Amid Iran War Disruptions

Russia’s Nornickel reported that the Iran war has added roughly three weeks to delivery times for its base metals exports, with major carriers including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM rerouting vessels around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope, positioning Morocco’s Tanger Med as an increasingly critical transshipment hub.

Financial Times

Turkey Promotes ‘Middle Corridor’ as Strait of Hormuz Alternative

Officials plan to reopen frontier with Armenia to unlock a Trump-backed trade route between Europe and Asia

The North Africa Post

Suicide Attacks Underscore Algeria’s Lingering Terrorist Threat as Pope Visits

Commentary arguing that suicide attacks coinciding with Pope Leo XIV’s visit to Algeria highlight persistent terrorism risks.

The North Africa Post

Libya Signs Health Cooperation Deals with Germany’s GIZ

Libya signed new health-sector agreements with GIZ aimed at strengthening health institutions amid post-conflict reconstruction.

Financial Times

DR Congo to Stockpile Critical Minerals with New Reserves

The Democratic Republic of Congo will establish a strategic reserve of three minerals, including cobalt and coltan, in a move designed to give the central African country more leverage over the market for some of the world’s most important metals.

Financial Times

Fallout from Vicious Sudan War Spills Across Borders

Conflict that has killed 150,000 and displaced 13mn now implicates Ethiopia, Chad and Egypt.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

COMMENTARY

Sudan — Three Years of War Unlike Any Other

Stimson Center North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program Director Hafed Al Ghwell writes for the Arab News on the 3rd anniversary of the Sudan War and its humanitarian aspects.

COMMENTARY

The Significance of Mali’s Support for Morocco’s Sovereignty over the Sahara

The North Africa Postanalysis of Mali’s public endorsement of Morocco’s Western Sahara claim as a geopolitical shift away from Algiers.

COMMENTARY

Weighing the Cost of Libya’s Smuggling Racket

Crisis Group commentary examining how Libya’s entrenched fuel, migrant, and weapons smuggling networks function as a parallel economy sustaining armed factions and undermining governance on both sides of the political divide.

REPORT

Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2026: Hard-Won Gains Under Pressure

The IMF projects sub-Saharan Africa growth declining from 4.5% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026, driven by fuel and fertilizer price spikes that disproportionately hit low-income and fragile Sahel states; includes two analytical chapters on the unprecedented scale of aid cuts and structural reforms needed to unlock private-sector-led growth.

REPORT

Regional Economic Outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia, April 2026

The IMF’s Spring 2026 Regional Economic Outlook for MENA and Central Asia, covering the macroeconomic impact of the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz closure on regional growth, energy revenues, and fiscal positions across North Africa and the broader Middle East.

COMMENTARY

Latest Sudan Conference Shows Diplomacy is Backsliding

Crisis Group President Comfort Ero and Horn of Africa Director Alan Boswell reflect on this week’s Sudan conference in Berlin, which revealed more division than unity among key external actors.

COMMENTARY

Will the AES Unified Force Succeed Where the G5 Sahel Failed?

ISS Africa analysis assesses whether the newly signed AES joint military structure can overcome the political and logistical failures that doomed its predecessor, the G5 Sahel Force.

REPORT

Africa Media Review, April 13–18, 2026

Africa Center for Strategic Studies curation of top African security and politics stories, with heavy coverage of Sudan’s third anniversary, AES military developments, and Sahel jihadist escalation.

COMMENTARY

Record Number of People Displaced into Neighbouring Countries as Sudan Conflict Marks Three Years

Oxfam reports 14 million displaced since April 2023; warning aid cuts are forcing agencies to scale back regional programs.

REPORT

Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, April 2026: Hard-Won Gains Under Pressure

IMF projects SSA growth of 4.3% in 2026, with Sahel and fragile states hardest hit by Middle East war commodity shocks and structural aid cuts.

REPORT

Over 180 Feared Dead as Mediterranean Death Toll Nears 1,000 in 2026

IOM data showed 180+ feared dead in Mediterranean crossings in ten days, with most departures from Tajoura and eastern Libya; 2026 deaths approaching 1,000.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

Berlin Conference on Sudan

Co-hosted by Germany and the African Union on April 14–15, this was the dominant diplomatic event of the week. Preparatory activity, Sudan’s formal objection, and multiple side events occurred April 6–13. Aims to mobilize humanitarian support and advance peace as the war marks its third anniversary.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

VIDEO REPORT

Sudan War: UN Officials Sound Alarm on Humanitarian Crisis

Africanews reportingas Sudan’s war nears three years, UN officials warn conditions remain dire; the WFP aids 4 million monthly and the UN’s $2.9 billion appeal is only 16% funded.

INTERVIEW

After 3 Years of Conflict, Gold Is the Driving Force Behind Sudan’s Civil War

Africanews interview with geopolitics journalist Roula Merhej arguing the Sudan war is sustained primarily by control of gold exports to Dubai.

INTERVIEW

‘At Every Single Step There Is Death and Danger’: The Struggle to Get Food in Sudan

France 24 Interview with NRC’s Mathilde Vu on civilian starvation and the critical role played by local farmers and grassroots volunteers.

PODCAST

Three Years of War in Sudan

BBC podcast marking the fourth year of Sudan’s war, covering UN warnings, escalating drone strikes, and Berlin conference pledges.

VIDEO REPORT

Sudan’s War Still Misunderstood After Three Years

Al Jazeera Analysts Kholood Khair and Hend Khairallah argue the conflict is fundamentally a war on civilians, not just a generals’ fight, and that this framing gap undermines the humanitarian response..

VIDEO REPORT

Who Is Keeping the Fight Alive in Sudan’s War?

Al Jazeera Host Malika Bilal and analyst Dallia Abdelmoniem examine the regional powers fueling the war amid Iran-war-driven fuel costs and faltering international attention.

Job Opportunities

Career moves, fellowships, and calls for applications—all in one place.

St. Andrew’s Refugee Services
Deputy Director, Refugee Legal Aid Program  (Cairo, Egypt)
Under the supervision of the Director of Refugee Legal Aid Program, the Deputy Director supports management of program services implementation focused on legal advice and representation to urban refugees in matters of refugee status determination, protection, and resettlement.

UNICEF
Social Policy Specialist (Khartoum, Sudan)
Fixed-term position providing technical support to social policy programming with focus on public budget and expenditure analysis to improve equitable allocations for children’s services in Sudan.

United Nations Volunteers
Communication Officer (Sudan)
UNV position supporting UN humanitarian and development communications in Sudan.

UNDP
National Consultant for Monitoring and Oversight of Rehabilitation Works (Mali)
Seeking a national consultant for the monitoring and control of the rehabilitation work on 4 youth centers in the municipalities of Ségou, Markala, Niono and Koutiala under the JCP/PBF project.

Norwegian Refugee Council
Multi-CC Project Manager (Kadugli, Sudan)
Leads multi-sector project delivery in a conflict-affected area; open to Sudanese nationals only.

International Rescue Committee
Senior Manager, Emergency Cash and Basic Needs, (Sudan)
Senior role managing IRC’s emergency cash transfer and basic needs response.

Concern Worldwide
Finance Coordinator (Sudan)
Finance coordination role supporting Concern’s humanitarian operations in Sudan.

Triangle Génération Humanitaire
Finance Manager (Sudan)
Finance leadership for French INGO managing country-office budgets and donor reporting in Sudan. Posted April 18, deadline May 1, 2026.

Danish Refugee Council
Consultancy (Darfur, Sudan)
Short-term consultancy designing resilience and durable solutions programming for displaced populations.

International Rescue Committee
Country Director, Burkina Faso
The IRC is recruiting a National Country Director for Burkina Faso who combines strategic vision, unifying leadership, integrity, and rigorous risk management to ensure institutional representation and operational management of the country program.

Recent & Related

Commentary
Karim Safieddine • Jad Shahrour