North Africa Regional Outlook: March 11, 2026

From rising migrant deaths in the Mediterranean to Tunisia’s political crackdown, and escalating conflict dynamics in Sudan and the wider Sahel

By  Hafed Al Ghwell  •  Lana Bleik  •  Yusuf Can  •  Alexander Farley

From rising migrant deaths in the Mediterranean to Tunisia’s political crackdown, escalating conflict dynamics in Sudan and the wider Sahel—explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel’s political, economic, and security landscapes.

Read the North Africa Weekly on LinkedIn or join the conversation on X: @StimsonNAfrica

Updates from the Stimson Center

Deeper dives from the Stimson Center.

A Conversation with H.E. Ambassador Sékou Berthe: Mali’s Strategic Outlook

Join the Stimson Center on March 12 for a public fireside chat with Ambassador Sékou Berthe, Ambassador of Mali to the United States on Mali’s political transition, security challenges, regional diplomacy, and US–Mali relations.

Libya’s Economic Future: A Conversation with Jonathan Winer

Join the Stimson Center on March 16, 2026, for a discussion with Jonathan M. Winer, former U.S. Special Envoy for Libya, examining the structural challenges shaping Libya’s economic future and investment climate.

Why Africa’s critical minerals must first power Africa

Stimson Center North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program Director Hafed Al-Ghwell writes for Arab News that Africa’s vast critical mineral resources should be used to drive domestic industrialization, regional manufacturing, and job creation within Africa, rather than primarily supplying raw materials for global green energy supply chains.

Morocco: An International Legal Anchor

Stimson Center North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program Director Hafed Al-Ghwell writes for Arab News that Africa’s vast critical mineral resources should be used to drive domestic industrialization, regional manufacturing, and job creation within Africa, rather than primarily supplying raw materials for global green energy supply chains.

The Mediterranean, North Africa, the Sahel: A Single, Strategic System?

In a new policy paper for the Stimson Center, Dr. Dario Cristiani argues that the Sahara and Mediterranean are increasingly interlinked by security and economic dynamics and that countries in the Mediterranean can no longer afford to view these as parallel or adjacent regions.

On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

LE MONDE

2026 Could Quickly Become the Deadliest Year for Migrants Crossing the Mediterranean

Early data this year points to a surge in Mediterranean crossings and deaths, with the pace tracking to exceed prior years’ casualty records.

REUTERS

Fifty-Three Migrants Dead or Missing After Boat Capsizes Off Libya

IOM reports a vessel carrying migrants capsized off the Libyan coast last month, leaving 53 dead or unaccounted for.

REUTERS

Almost 8,000 Died on Migration Routes in 2025

A UN agency report tallies nearly 8,000 deaths along global migration routes in 2025, with the true figure likely higher due to undercounting.

REUTERS

Ethiopia Builds Secret Camp to Train Sudan’s RSF Fighters

Investigative reporting reveals that Ethiopia is hosting a covert training facility in Benishangul-Gumuz for approximately 4,300 RSF fighters, with the UAE allegedly financing construction and supplying trainers — the first direct evidence of Ethiopian involvement in Sudan’s civil war.

LE MONDE AFRIQUE

Algeria Strives to Restore Its Lost Influence in the Sahel

Analysis of Algiers’ efforts to reclaim diplomatic relevance in the Sahel after being sidelined by the AES junta states, which froze ties with Algeria in 2025.

REUTERS

Tunisia Jails Tycoon Mabrouk and Ex-PM Chahed on Corruption Charges

A Tunisian court sentenced the country’s richest businessman, Marouan Mabrouk (son-in-law of Ben Ali), to 20 years for money laundering and corruption, and former PM Youssef Chahed to six years in absentia for lifting an asset freeze on Mabrouk’s European holdings.

AP

Tunisian Authorities Detain Pro-Palestinian Activists Preparing New Gaza Aid Flotilla

Tunisian counter-terrorism police arrested five organizers of the Global Sumud Flotilla, which is preparing a new maritime mission to Gaza, amid a broader crackdown on flotilla-related gatherings in Tunis; organizers condemned the arrests as political.

ACLED

Conflict in the Sahel

ACLED’s regional data hub for the Sahel, providing continuously updated conflict event data, trend analysis, and visualizations covering armed groups, jihadist activity, and political violence across the region.

THE AFRICA REPORT

US-Africa Week Ahead: War in Iran, AGOA Next Steps, Melania Trump at the UN

Weekly preview covering: US-Israel strikes on Iran and African leaders’ calls for restraint; Melania Trump leading a UN Security Council session on children in conflict; and bipartisan Congressional briefings on the future of AGOA following a one-year reauthorization.

DIPLOMEDS

Developments in Mediterranean Diplomacy

Monthly tracker summarizing Mediterranean diplomatic activity in February 2026: US-Iran tensions, Gaza and West Bank developments, Western Sahara negotiations, and Lebanon — including divided regional responses to the US-led Gaza “Board of Peace” initiative.

AGENZIA NOVA (IT)

Morocco: Ambassador Salzano Says Resolution 2797 Is a New Political Reference on the Sahara

Italian ambassador to Morocco comments on how UN Security Council Resolution 2797 shifts the diplomatic baseline on Western Sahara in Morocco’s favor.

AL-MONITOR

Oil Crisis Stokes Inflation Risks for Mideast as Iran War Exposes Importers

Analysis of how the oil price surge following US-Israel strikes on Iran is hitting regional importers hardest: Egypt faces Suez disruptions and energy supply shocks; Turkey is burning through FX reserves to defend the lira; while Gulf exporters face their own complications despite higher revenues.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

COMMENTARY

War in the Middle East: What Implications for the EU and the World?

This EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) commentary analyzing the broader strategic fallout of the Middle East conflict for EU foreign policy and global order.

COMMENTARY

Europe, Mauritania, and the Gulf States: Securing Stability and Growth in the Sahel

This European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) commentary argues that Mauritania is a pivotal buffer state for Europe’s migration and energy policies, and that the EU’s Pact for the Mediterranean can align European and Gulf Arab interests in stabilizing the country and the wider Sahel.

COMMENTARY

Fault Lines in the Horn of Africa

An American Enterprise Institute commentary exploring structural tensions across the Horn, including governance breakdowns and regional rivalries.

REPORT

Migration in Africa: Myths and Realities

An African Union Policy document addressing migration narratives and data trends across the continent.

COMMENTARY

A Dubious Turn in the Sahel

This Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) commentary criticizes the Trump administration’s diplomatic overtures toward the AES junta states (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger), arguing they signal tolerance for authoritarian behavior and undermine U.S. credibility in the region.

COMMENTARY

Will the AES Unified Force Succeed Where the G5 Sahel Failed?


This ISS Africa commentary analyzes the new 6,000-strong Alliance of Sahel States Unified Force launched in December 2025, comparing its structural improvements over the G5 Sahel (broader cross-border authority, domestic financing mechanisms) with persistent risks including funding gaps, insufficient intelligence sharing, and strained relations with neighboring states.

COMMENTARY

Terror Groups Pressure Sahel Capitals


This ADF Magazine (Africa Defense Forum) piece examines how jihadist groups (JNIM and ISGS) have shifted tactics to threaten capital cities and major population centers across the Sahel, not just rural areas.

REPORT

African Integration Report


African Union flagship report assessing the state of African continental integration across trade, infrastructure, governance, and institutional frameworks.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Marocco: Un Paese a Due Velocità


This Italian-language ISPI analysis of Morocco as a “two-speed country”, with strong economic and diplomatic momentum in some sectors alongside persistent governance and social inequalities.

REPORT

The Role of Traceability in Critical Mineral Supply Chains


Joint IEA-OECD report arguing that supply chain traceability is essential for responsible and secure critical mineral sourcing; offers an 8-step framework for policymakers, stressing that traceability must be part of broader due diligence rather than a standalone compliance exercise.

COMMENTARY

Options to Counter Islamic Militancy in the Sahel Region


This commentary by Divergent Options lays out strategic approaches, military, governance, and diplomatic, for addressing the expanding Islamist insurgency in the Sahel.

COMMENTARY

Western Sahara: A Step Forward or Return to Stalemate?


In this commentary, Former UN envoy Christopher Ross examines UN Security Council Resolution 2797, arguing that US pressure in favor of Morocco’s autonomy plan will entrench both sides and deepen the stalemate rather than advance a negotiated solution.

REPORT

Frontier Market Economies: Promise, Performance, and Prospects


World Bank publication examining the economic trajectories, reform challenges, and investment potential of frontier market economies globally.

COMMENTARY

The Gulf Crisis Through Egypt’s Eyes


ISPI analysts examine how the US-Israel strikes on Iran have placed Egypt in a difficult position: aligned politically with Gulf partners and Washington, while facing serious economic exposure through Suez Canal disruptions, suspended Israeli gas exports, and renewed inflationary pressure under its IMF program.

REPORT

China’s Critical Minerals Strategy in Africa


Africa Center for Strategic Studies report detailing China’s dominant position in Africa’s critical minerals sector, controlling over half of global production and ~87% of processing, through integrated mine, infrastructure, and refinery investments, and the challenges this poses for African value-chain development.

REPORT

Levels of Restrictions Countries Committed to Versus What They Actually Implement


World Bank data visualization blog post examining the gap between countries’ WTO-bound trade restriction commitments and the higher levels of restrictions they enforce in practice.

REPORT

Tunisia Needs Both Bread and Freedom


Part of the Atlantic Council’s 2026 Freedom and Prosperity Report; argues Tunisia must pair market reforms with democratic institution-building, noting that rising protests in 2025–26 reflect unaddressed economic grievances that political repression cannot contain indefinitely.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

A Conversation with H.E. Ambassador Sékou Berthe: Mali’s Strategic Outlook

Join the Stimson Center on March 12 for a public fireside chat with Ambassador Sékou Berthe, Ambassador of Mali to the United States on Mali’s political transition, security challenges, regional diplomacy, and US–Mali relations.

Libya’s Economic Future: A Conversation with Jonathan Winer

Join the Stimson Center on March 16, 2026, for a discussion with Jonathan M. Winer, former U.S. Special Envoy for Libya, examining the structural challenges shaping Libya’s economic future and investment climate.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

WEBINAR

The Search for Peace in Libya: A Book Talk with Stephanie Williams

Stimson Center hosted Stephanie Williams, author of “Libya Since Qaddafi,” for a public discussion exploring Libya’s conflict, diplomacy, and lessons for international peacemaking.

WEBINAR

Escaping the Cycle of Conflict in Libya

Stimson Center hosted Tim Eaton, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House, to discuss his recent policy brief, arguing an internationally mediated economic track is essential to curb rent-seeking, fragmentation, and support stabilization in Libya.

VIDEO REPORT

Bloomberg Horizons Middle East & Africa

Video segment from Bloomberg’s Horizons series covering current events and market developments across the Middle East and Africa.

Job Opportunities

Career moves, fellowships, and calls for applications—all in one place.

Splash International
Regional Director for Africa (HQ)
The Regional Director, Program Delivery Africa provides strategic and operational leadership to ensure high quality, on time, and on budget delivery of Project WISE II across Splash’s African countries.

CESVI – Cooperazione e Sviluppo Onlus
Head of Mission – Libya (Tunis & Libya)
The person will report to the MENA Regional Manager and will work in close coordination with the MENA Regional Team as well as relevant HQ focal points to address the protection needs and promote the resilience of migrants, refugees, asylum seekers, IDPs and vulnerable host community members.

Moroccan Association of Public Policies
Call for Papers
Announces the Call for Proposals for the 2nd International Conference on Governance and Public Action, to be held on April 14–15, 2026, at the Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences Agdal, Mohammed V University of Rabat.

International NGO Safety Organization
Deputy Director, Mali
INSO is seeking a Deputy Country Director to oversee all aspects of service delivery and play a key role in ensuring that INSO provides the best possible support to NGOs responding to humanitarian needs in Mali.

Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development
Libya, Country Finance Officer
Under the authority of the Country Finance Manager, the Country Finance Officer (CFO) will oversee supporting the Country Finance Manager in his/her functions. More specifically, she/he will supervise the implementation and follow-up of fiscal management and control tools. She/he will also oversee training of the Finance Team.

Values for Impact
Call for Papers
Under the theme  Solidarity, Authenticity, and Prosperity, the conference will convene scholars, policymakers, regulators, and industry professionals to discuss how Islamic finance can promote solidarity-oriented and inclusive entrepreneurship, support authenticity through stronger real-economy linkages, and enable prosperity via trustworthy digital and AI-enabled financial services, while welcoming comparative perspectives on ethical and values-based finance.

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