North Africa Regional Outlook: February 11, 2026

From Sudan’s deepening humanitarian collapse and escalating jihadist violence in the Sahel, to Libya’s renewed push to position itself as a gas supplier for Europe amid major foreign investments and political shocks

By  Hafed Al Ghwell  •  Lana Bleik  •  Yusuf Can  •  Alexander Farley

From Sudan’s deepening humanitarian collapse and escalating jihadist violence in the Sahel, to Libya’s renewed push to position itself as a gas supplier for Europe amid major foreign investments and political shocks— explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel’s political, economic, and security landscapes.

From Sudan’s deepening humanitarian collapse and escalating jihadist violence in the Sahel, to Libya’s renewed push to position itself as a gas supplier for Europe amid major foreign investments and political shocks— explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel’s political, economic, and security landscapes.

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On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

REVUE CONFLITS

Mauritania: Sixty-five years of independence

The article reflects on Mauritania’s post-independence trajectory, highlighting political continuity, social tensions, and unresolved structural challenges.

REVUE CONFLITS

Sudan: After three years of war, ethnic narratives harden

As Sudan’s conflict drags on, ethnic rhetoric is increasingly shaping political discourse and deepening societal fractures.

BLOOMBERG

Morocco looks to resume $1 billion LNG project in due course

Morocco signaled plans to revive its long-delayed LNG import project as it reassesses energy security and diversification options.

OILPRICE

Algeria opens 600-mile railway to tap vast iron ore deposit

Libya is positioning itself as a future gas supplier to Europe, leveraging its reserves amid shifting global energy markets.

JEUNE AFRIQUE

Which African countries will be tomorrow’s mining leaders?

The ranking assesses emerging African mining hubs based on reserves, policy frameworks, and investment attractiveness.

AFRICANEWS

Tunisian president extends state of emergency for 11 more months

President Kais Saied prolonged emergency rule, reinforcing concerns about prolonged exceptional governance.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Ethiopia secures $400 million UK investment to expand power grid

The investment aims to strengthen Ethiopia’s electricity infrastructure, closely linked to the GERD project.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Top 10 African countries with the strongest naval fleets in 2026

The ranking compares African navies based on capabilities, fleet size, and strategic reach.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

How Africa loses over $120 billion a year to hydrocarbon imports

The article outlines the economic cost of fuel imports and the case for domestic energy production.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Sudan war draws in US and UAE as UN warns of worsening crisis

The report highlights international involvement in Sudan’s conflict and growing diplomatic strains.

REUTERS

Oil majors snap up West African blocks in hunt for the next Brazil

Energy companies are accelerating exploration in West Africa, betting on large offshore discoveries.

BLOOMBERG

Morocco orders evacuation of flood-stricken historic city

Severe flooding forced evacuations in a historic Moroccan city, underscoring climate-related risks.

THE AFRICA REPORT

US–Congo minerals deals take off amid Tshisekedi visit

New agreements on copper, cobalt, and zinc reflect deepening US engagement in Congo’s mining sector.

EUOBSERVER

EU backs Morocco’s Western Sahara plan as Brussels edges closer to Rabat

European support for Morocco’s autonomy proposal continues to solidify amid geopolitical recalibration.

EUOBSERVER

North Africa key to EU–Africa trade boost, IMF chief says

IMF leadership highlighted North Africa’s strategic importance to deeper EU–Africa economic ties.

JEWISH INSIDER

US lawmakers scrutinize Polisario–Iran links

Congressional figures are examining allegations of foreign influence involving the Polisario Front.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Africa’s hard-currency debt to exceed $90 billion in 2026

Rising external debt levels are increasing financial vulnerability across the continent.

TIMES OF ISRAEL

Netanyahu reportedly warns about Egypt’s growing military power

Israeli leadership is said to be closely monitoring Egypt’s expanding military capabilities.

TRAVEL AND TOUR WORLD

Morocco among African countries facing US visa processing freeze

The freeze reflects tightening US immigration measures tied to economic and security assessments.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Top African countries absorbing the most Chinese exports

Trade data shows which African markets are most exposed to Chinese manufactured goods.

DEFENCEWEB

Morocco reportedly interested in South Korean Black Panther tanks

Morocco is exploring advanced armor purchases as part of military modernization efforts.

RFI

Libya’s Haftar sends troops to Sudan border

Haftar-aligned forces deployed near Sudan, as Egypt calls for an end to support for the RSF.

BLOOMBERG

Dubai-based firm to invest $1.6 billion in African AI farmland

The investment highlights growing interest in AI-driven agriculture across Africa.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Algeria moves to terminate air services pact with UAE

Rising diplomatic tensions prompted Algeria to reconsider aviation agreements with the UAE.

LE MONDE

Assassination of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi risks re-polarizing Libya

The killing could reignite deep divisions across Libya’s fragmented political landscape.

AL-MONITOR

Fossil discovery repositions Morocco in human evolution research

New archaeological findings place Morocco at the center of early human history.

AL-MONITOR

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi killed in gunfight: what we know

The report outlines circumstances and implications of Saif al-Islam’s death.

MIDDLE EAST EYE

MSF says El Fasher largely destroyed and emptied

Doctors Without Borders warns that El Fasher has been devastated by fighting.

NEW YORK TIMES

Egypt and Sudan’s drone war escalates quietly

The article details covert drone activity reshaping the conflict between Sudanese factions.

REUTERS

Pakistan plans Benghazi consulate, bolstering Libya’s eastern authorities

Islamabad’s move lends diplomatic legitimacy to Libya’s eastern power centers.

REUTERS

Libya targets gas export boost to Europe by early 2030s

Libya aims to expand gas production and infrastructure to serve European demand.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Burkina Faso hits record gold output as reforms take hold

Mining reforms in Burkina Faso have helped push gold production to historic highs.

ALLAFRICA

U.S. Envoy Visits Mali to Reset Ties With Sahel States

The newly appointed head of the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of African Affairs, Nick Checker, has visited Mali to revitalize bilateral cooperation with Bamako.

Commentaries from the North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program

Morocco: An International Legal Anchor

Dr. Leila Hanafi writes for the Stimson Center and argues that Morocco is increasingly shaping international peace efforts not through grandstanding, but through law, institutions, and follow-through. Hanafi adds that Morocco’s credibility stems from sustained respect for international legal processes, administrative continuity, and an ability to implement agreements where others falter.

The Mediterranean, North Africa, the Sahel: A Single, Strategic System?

In a new policy paper for the Stimson Center, Dr. Darioa Cristiani argues that the Sahara and Mediterranean are increasingly interlinked by security and economic dynamics and that countries in the Mediterranean can no longer afford to view these as parallel or adjacent regions.

Fragile Consensus as Africa Heads to the Polls

Stimson Center’s North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Sahel Program Director Hafed Al-Ghwell writes on how Africa’s 2026 election cycle, spanning more than a dozen countries and over 600 million voters, reflects a growing contradiction in which elections still enable genuine transfers of power in a few resilient systems but increasingly function elsewhere as managed rituals that legitimize entrenched rule amid declining participation and shrinking political space.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

COMMENTARY

Libya after Saif al-Islam: An uncertain future remains

This ISPI analysis examines Libya’s political uncertainty following developments surrounding Saif al-Islam Gaddafi.

COMMENTARY

Islamic State assault on Niger airport tests military rulers

This International Crisis Group commentary argues terror by Islamic State attack exposes vulnerabilities in Niger’s security posture under military rule.

COMMENTARY

Massad Boulos returns to Libya — and the questions it raises

The commentary explores the political implications of Boulos’s reemergence in Libya’s complex landscape.

COMMENTARY

The uncertain future of AGOA and US–Africa trade

This Foreign Policy article examines whether Washington can revive meaningful economic engagement with Africa.

COMMENTARY

A dubious turn in the Sahel

This Council on Foreign Relations analysis critiques recent political and security trends across the Sahel, warning of long-term instability.

POLICY PAPER

Critical Minerals & Resource Nationalism 2.0: Why the Policy is more Critical than the Mineral


The Oxford TIDE paper explores how “critical minerals” are driving a new wave of resource nationalism around the globe, including Africa.

COMMENTARY

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi: Between martyrdom and myth


This commentary examines how Saif al-Islam’s image continues to polarize Libyan society.

COMMENTARY

Tunisia: The dictatorship devours its children


The Le Point commentary argues Tunisia’s political system has turned increasingly repressive.

REPORT

ACLED regional overview: Africa, January 2026


A conflict monitoring data report by ReliefWeb shows continued high levels of violence across Africa, with the Sahel and Sudan among the most affected regions.

REPORT

North Africa: Connecting Continents, Creating Opportunities


This IMF report explores the region’s potential to serve as a hub between Africa, Europe, and the Middle East through structural reforms and deeper integration.

REPORT

Egypt country overview


IMF data outlines Egypt’s macroeconomic outlook, structural challenges, and reform trajectory amid high debt and inflation pressures.

COMMENTARY

Militarising the Sahel will not defeat terrorism


This Al Jazeera opinion argues that security-first strategies are failing in the Sahel and calls for governance, economic reform, and political inclusion.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Morocco: Gen Z protests clash with sportswashing narrative


This analysis by Business & Human Rights Resource Centre argues that young Moroccans continue protests over rights and economic pressures, even as international sporting events project an image of stability.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

Escaping the Cycle of Conflict in Libya

The Stimson Center hosted Tim Eaton, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House, to discuss his recent policy brief, arguing an internationally mediated economic track is essential to curb rent-seeking, fragmentation, and support stabilization in Libya.

2026 IMF MENA Research Conference – “Rethinking MENA Integration in a Fast-Changing Global Environment”

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) announcement and call for papers for a research conference to be held June 29–30, 2026 at Mohammed VI Polytechnic University in Rabat, Morocco, inviting work on trade and financial integration, macroeconomic policy under new external shocks, digitalization, energy, and regional cooperation.

39th African Union Summit

Media accreditation is now open for the 39th AU Summit, including the Executive Council and the Assembly of Heads of State and Government, taking place 11–15 February 2026 at the AU Headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Africa Private Sector Forum

On the margins of the 39th African Union Summit, the African Union – Economic Development, Trade, Tourism, Industry, Minerals (ETTIM) and the Africa Business Council would convene a High-Level Africa Private Sector Forum focused on the Role of the Private Sector in Realizing Agenda 2063.

Health economics in Morocco: prevention and policy

This Policy Center for the New South event focuses on strengthening Morocco’s health system through preventive policy approaches.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

WEBINAR

North Africa: Connecting continents, creating opportunities

The IMF-hosted forum focuses on North Africa’s role as a bridge between regions amid trade, investment, and infrastructure shifts.

Job Opportunities

Career moves, fellowships, and calls for applications—all in one place.

St. Antony’s College
Visiting faculty announcement (Oxford, UK)
The 2026–2027 Tunisian Visiting Faculty Programme call is open for research active faculty from Tunisian universities in the humanities and social sciences.

UNICEF
Consultancy (Digital Education and Innovation) (Cairo, Egypt)
UNICEF is recruiting for a professional role supporting child-focused development programming.

Sweden Abroad
MMP 2026
Sweden launched a new call for proposals supporting EU-MENA dialogue and regional cooperation initiatives.

UNDP
Programme Coordinator (Cairo, Egypt)
National Coordinator will be responsible for the implementation of the overall work of SGP, the SGP Programme Associate/ Assistant, and the National Steering Committee at the country level.

Embassy of Belgium
Accountant (Cairo, Egypt)
The Embassy of Belgium in Cairo is recruiting a passionate, proactive, open-minded and precise individual to join our ranks in a full-time position as Administrative Collaborator – Accounting Expert.

IFC
Division Director (Cairo, Egpyt)
IFC seeks to recruit a Division Director to lead the Division of North Africa and Horn of Africa. The position will be based in Cairo, Egypt and will report to the Regional Vice President for Africa.

The Egyptian Authority for Children’s Villages
Program Manager (Cairo, Egypt)
The Egyptian Authority for Children’s Villages (SOS) – Egypt is currently looking for qualified applicants/candidates for the position of Program Manager.

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