North Africa Regional Outlook: February 25, 2026

From France recalibrating its Sahel strategy through renewed security deals with Algeria, to Morocco and Egypt advancing ambitious energy, mining, and logistics projects while Libya grapples with migration and fragile budget mediation

By  Hafed Al Ghwell  •  Lana Bleik  •  Yusuf Can  •  Alexander Farley

From France recalibrating its Sahel strategy through renewed security deals with Algeria, to Morocco and Egypt advancing ambitious energy, mining, and logistics projects while Libya grapples with migration and fragile budget mediation—explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel’s political, economic, and security landscapes.

From France recalibrating its Sahel strategy through renewed security deals with Algeria, to Morocco and Egypt advancing ambitious energy, mining, and logistics projects while Libya grapples with migration and fragile budget mediation — explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel’s political, economic, and security landscapes.

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On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

France seeks return to AES space via renewed high-level security deal in North Africa

France is reportedly looking into renewed high-level security cooperation in North Africa as a pathway to re-engage with the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), reflecting Paris’s recalibration after military withdrawals from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.

L’OPINION (MOROCCO)

Hydrocarbures – Nador, future “Rotterdam africaine”?

Exploring Morocco’s ambitions to position Nador West Med as a major hydrocarbons and logistics hub, potentially serving as a strategic transshipment and energy gateway between Europe and Africa.

AL HURRA

Diplomacy in Madrid: Morocco’s Proposal Faces Algeria’s Calculations

Madrid has thrown its historical and political weight into the heart of the dispute over Western Sahara, hosting meetings on Feb. 10 between representatives of Morocco, Algeria, Mauritania and the Polisario Front.

ARAB NEWS

France, Algeria to resume security cooperation: minister

France and Algeria agreed on Tuesday to restart security cooperation during a visit to Algiers by French Interior Minister Laurent Nunez, marking the first sign of a thaw in diplomatic ties.

LE MONDE

La France et l’Algérie relancent une coopération sécuritaire de très haut niveau

France and Algeria have agreed to revive high-level security cooperation, signaling a diplomatic thaw and renewed counterterrorism coordination after a period of bilateral tension.

BRUSSELS SIGNAL

Italy forced to pay Sea-Watch despite illegal docking with migrants in Lampedusa

An Italian court ruling requires compensation to NGO Sea-Watch following a migrant rescue docking dispute, reigniting debate over maritime law, NGO operations, and EU migration policy.

OILPRICE.COM

Can Big Oil Succeed Where Diplomacy Has Failed in Libya?

How renewed oil sector engagement by international energy majors could help stabilize Libya economically, even as political reconciliation efforts remain stalled.

AFRICANEWS

UN calls on both authorities in Libya to protect rights of migrants

The UN has urged Libya’s rival authorities to safeguard migrants’ rights amid mounting reports of abuse, detention, and exploitation in transit facilities.

REUTERS

UN human rights office: Migrants in Libya subjected to systemic violence, abuses

The UN reports widespread and systemic abuses against migrants in Libya, including forced labor and sexual violence, prompting renewed calls for accountability.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Morocco’s largest telecoms operator reports $760 million profit in 2025

Maroc Telecom posted strong annual profits, underscoring resilience in North African telecom markets despite macroeconomic headwinds.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Algeria and Niger put an end to their ‘cold war’ to revive major trans-Saharan energy project

Algeria and Niger are moving to restore cooperation on a key trans-Saharan energy pipeline project, signaling improved diplomatic ties and renewed infrastructure ambitions.

AL-MONITOR

Libya, Morocco and Israel forces powering Algeria-UAE rupture

Analyzing the geopolitical frictions between Algeria and the UAE, linking tensions to normalization dynamics, regional alignments, and North African rivalries.

ANBA

Tunisia increased foreign investment in 2025

Tunisia recorded higher foreign investment inflows in 2025, suggesting tentative economic recovery despite persistent political and fiscal constraints.

RFI (FRANCE)

Tchad: un ex-membre du conseil militaire accuse le président d’enrôlements forcés

A former member of Chad’s transitional military council accuses the president of forced recruitment to fight in Sudan, highlighting internal dissent and regional conflict spillovers.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Burkina Faso becomes Africa’s gold hotspot as economic boom unlocks

Burkina Faso is experiencing a gold-driven economic surge, attracting new investment despite ongoing security instability.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Niger secures $91 million IMF boost as AES states regain global financial access

Niger has received IMF financial support, signaling tentative re-engagement with international financial institutions despite political tensions.

MAROC HEBDO

Comment le Maroc est devenu indispensable à la Chine

An analysis of Morocco’s strategic economic partnership with China, highlighting infrastructure investment and trade expansion as dividends of long-term diplomatic positioning.

THE NATIONAL

Libya and UN developments

Exploring UN engagement in Libya, focusing on mediation efforts and institutional reunification challenges.

THE GEOPOLITICAL DESK

American mediation nears breakthrough on Libya’s unified budget

U.S.-backed mediation efforts may be close to securing agreement on a unified Libyan budget, a key step toward institutional consolidation.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Egypt to invest $4 billion in oil refinery upgrades

Egypt plans major refinery upgrades to reduce fuel imports and strengthen domestic energy security.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Egypt to roll out largest-ever Mediterranean gas drilling project

Egypt is launching an expansive offshore drilling initiative aimed at boosting gas output and reinforcing its role as an Eastern Mediterranean energy hub.

DAILY NEWS EGYPT

Egypt to launch nationwide aerial survey for mineral exploration

Egypt is initiating a comprehensive aerial survey to identify mineral resources and support its mining sector expansion strategy.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

DR Congo to channel state-traded gold into central bank reserves

The DRC plans to formalize gold flows into central bank reserves, aiming to strengthen monetary stability and reduce illicit trade.

REUTERS

Nigeria says 100 US forces arrive expanding mission

Nigeria confirmed the arrival of additional U.S. forces to expand security cooperation amid persistent regional insurgency threats.

AL JAZEERA

Journey of hell: Migrants in Libya endure torture, rape, forced labour

Detailed reporting of severe human rights abuses faced by migrants in Libya, citing UN findings of torture, sexual violence, and forced labor.

REUTERS

US imposes sanctions on commanders of Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces

The U.S. has sanctioned RSF commanders over alleged widespread atrocities, intensifying international pressure amid Sudan’s conflict.

REUTERS

Tunisia jails lawmaker eight months for mocking president

A Tunisian court sentenced an opposition lawmaker, reflecting ongoing political crackdowns and shrinking civic space.

FINANCIAL AFRIK

Niger: Chinese CNPC in the hot seat

A scrutiny of CNPC’s operations in Niger, particularly regarding transparency and local benefit-sharing.

HORN REVIEW

How Sahel’s past explains its violent present and uncertain future

Tracing historical governance breakdowns and colonial legacies as structural drivers of the Sahel’s current instability.

BUSINESS INSIDER AFRICA

Egypt earmarks $500bn to finance 300 projects across Africa

Egypt unveiled a large-scale financing plan to support infrastructure and development projects across Africa, reinforcing Cairo’s regional economic diplomacy.

Commentaries from the North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program

China–Africa: Who benefits from tariff-free trade?

Stimson Center North Africa, Mediterranean and the Sahel Program Director Hafed Al-Ghwell writes for Arab News on how China’s suspension of tariffs on imports from 53 African countries may expand market access and offer diplomatic leverage, but without structural reforms, industry upgrades, and solutions to non-tariff and logistical bottlenecks, it is unlikely to significantly alter Africa’s trade imbalance or commodity-dependent relationship with Beijing.

Morocco: An International Legal Anchor

Dr. Leila Hanafi writes for the Stimson Center and argues that Morocco is increasingly shaping international peace efforts not through grandstanding, but through law, institutions, and follow-through. Hanafi adds that Morocco’s credibility stems from sustained respect for international legal processes, administrative continuity, and an ability to implement agreements where others falter.

The Mediterranean, North Africa, the Sahel: A Single, Strategic System?

In a new policy paper for the Stimson Center, Dr. Darioa Cristiani argues that the Sahara and Mediterranean are increasingly interlinked by security and economic dynamics and that countries in the Mediterranean can no longer afford to view these as parallel or adjacent regions.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

COMMENTARY

Madrid Meeting on the Sahara Issue: A Promising Step Toward Resolving the Conflict

This Emirates Policy Center commentary analyzes the consultative meeting that took place on February 8, 2026, at the US Embassy in Madrid involving representatives from Morocco and the Polisario Front.

REPORT

FDI Qualities Review of Egypt

OECD evaluates the economic, social, and environmental impact of foreign direct investment in Egypt, identifying reform priorities to improve productivity spillovers, sustainability standards, and governance frameworks to attract higher-quality FDI.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Why Africa’s mineral strategy needs digital salvation

Overseas Development Institute (ODI) analysis arguing that Africa’s critical minerals strategy must incorporate digital governance tools, such as traceability systems and data transparency, to prevent corruption, enhance value capture, and strengthen negotiating leverage in global supply chains.

COMMENTARY

Morocco to fuel global shipping’s energy transition

The World Bank highlights Morocco’s green hydrogen and ammonia projects as potential contributors to decarbonizing global maritime shipping, positioning the country as a future supplier of alternative marine fuels.

REPORT

North Africa: Connecting Continents, Creating Opportunities

An IMF Departmental Paper analyzes North Africa’s strategic geographic position and outlines structural reforms needed to enhance regional integration, trade connectivity, and private-sector-led growth.

COMMENTARY

China’s Transactional Diplomacy in Niger


An Africa Center for Strategic Studies analysis examines China’s pragmatic engagement with Niger’s military authorities, emphasizing resource access, infrastructure leverage, and Beijing’s non-interference framing amid Western disengagement.

REPORT

MENA’s Green Iron Opportunity: Decarbonising Global Steel Industry


A Green Hydrogen Organization (GH2) report outlines how MENA countries can leverage renewable energy to produce green iron for export, positioning the region as a future decarbonized steel supply hub.

REPORT

Africa Water Vision 2063 and Policy


African Development Bank (AfDB) policy document sets long-term strategic objectives for water security, climate resilience, and sustainable water governance across Africa.

COMMENTARY

Canadian expertise and West Africa’s infrastructure gap


Export Development Canada (EDC) examines Canadian firms’ potential role in addressing infrastructure deficits across West Africa through public-private partnerships.

REPORT

Country Risk Atlas 2026


The Allianz Trade annual risk assessment evaluates sovereign and commercial risk trends globally, including heightened vulnerabilities in parts of Africa and the Sahel.

BOOK

Trade and Investment in Africa: A Research Companion


A comprehensive analysis of Africa’s trade architecture, investment patterns, and evolving global economic partnerships.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Algeria Macroeconomic Projection Model (AMPM)


An IMF Working Paper introducing a macroeconomic modeling framework to support Algeria’s fiscal and monetary policy forecasting.

COMMENTARY

How to uphold international cooperation amid return of great power politics


This Project Syndicate commentary discusses preserving multilateralism and development cooperation as geopolitical competition intensifies.

REPORT

Le JNIM et le dilemme de l’expansion au-delà du Sahel


This International Crisis Group report examines JNIM’s strategic calculus regarding expansion beyond the Sahel, assessing implications for regional security.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

The Search for Peace in Libya: A Book Talk With Stephanie Williams

Join the Stimson Center on February 25 for a discussion with Stephanie Williams, author of “Libya Since Qaddafi,” moderated by Hafed Al-Ghwell, exploring Libya’s conflict, diplomacy, and lessons for international peacemaking.

2026 IMF MENA Research Conference – “Rethinking MENA Integration in a Fast-Changing Global Environment”

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) announcement and call for papers for a research conference to be held June 29–30, 2026 at Mohammed VI Polytechnic University in Rabat, Morocco, inviting work on trade and financial integration, macroeconomic policy under new external shocks, digitalization, energy, and regional cooperation.

International Conference on African Research

This conference in Rabat, Morocco between July 6-11 will convene scholars and practitioners to discuss Africa-focused research and policy.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

WEBINAR

Escaping the Cycle of Conflict in Libya

Stimson Center hosted Tim Eaton, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House, to discuss his recent policy brief, arguing an internationally mediated economic track is essential to curb rent-seeking, fragmentation, and support stabilization in Libya.

WEBINAR

Unlocking Africa’s Single Market: AfCFTA’s Impact on Business and Investment

The Atlantic Council convened experts to assess how the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) can reshape intra-African trade and investment flows.

VIDEO REPORT

Etiopis Tafara, IFC regional director: implementing the Algerian economic model in Africa

Video reporting on Africa’s economic developments, offering expert analysis on regional instability and governance.

Job Opportunities

Career moves, fellowships, and calls for applications—all in one place.

Embassy of Belgium
Accountant (Cairo, Egypt)
The Embassy of Belgium in Cairo is recruiting a passionate, proactive, open-minded and precise individual to join our ranks in a full-time position as Administrative Collaborator – Accounting Expert.

The Egyptian Authority for Children’s Villages
Program Manager (Cairo, Egypt)
The Egyptian Authority for Children’s Villages (SOS) – Egypt is currently looking for qualified applicants/candidates for the position of Program Manager.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN
Program Specialist (Cairo, Egypt)
FAO is seeking a programme specialist to oversee the implementation of assigned project(s) and contribute to other FAO Egypt projects as required. The role ensures project(s) alignment with FAO’s Strategic Framework, national priorities, and donor requirements.

European Commission (INTPA)
International Aid/Cooperation Officer (Brussels, Belgium)
EU job posting focused on migration/forced displacement programming, covering policy coordination, partner management, and program oversight.

UNICEF
Consultant (Tunis, Tunisia)
The main objective of this position is to review, optimize, and finalize the training manuals and facilitator guides related to the prevention of online violence, ensuring their pedagogical quality, operational effectiveness, and thematic relevance.

UN Office of Project Services
Project Manager (Bamako, Mali)
The Project Manager (Transactional) is responsible for the effective delivery and daily oversight of projects which provide transactional services, such as HR services, procurement, grants or services, to UNOPS partners.

Splash International
Regional Director for Africa (HQ)
The Regional Director, Program Delivery Africa provides strategic and operational leadership to ensure high quality, on time, and on budget delivery of Project WISE II across Splash’s African countries.

TIMEP (Call for Applications)
Open Call for 2026–2027 Nonresident Fellow Applications
TIMEP invites applications for nonresident fellows focusing on governance, reform, and accountability across the MENA region.

Code for Africa
Call for Applications – AAOSI Fellowship for Journalists
This fellowship supports investigative journalists in East and West Africa and the Sahel, emphasizing accountability and open-source research.

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