North Africa Regional Outlook: July 8, 2026
From Algeria’s elections and gaining momentum in Libya’s energy sector to budding regional partnerships and economic cooperation, the region continues to adapt to changing geopolitical realities
July 8, 2026

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JULY 1—8: This Week in North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel.

From Algeria’s elections and gaining momentum in Libya’s energy sector to budding regional partnerships and economic cooperation, the region continues to adapt to changing geopolitical realities—explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel.

From the North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Sahel Program

Events, commentaries and updates from the Stimson Center.

Tripoli’s New Leverage: How the American Initiative Changed the Rules of Negotiation

In a brand-new commentary for the Stimson Center, Program Director Hafed Al Ghwell maps how a US-led change to closed-door negotiating and the ability of players to enforce settlements has reshaped who holds power in Libya’s reunification talks.

The Game of Middle Powers in North Africa

In a new commentary for the Stimson Center, Research Associate Yusuf Can & Stefan Lukas of Middle East Minds map how Russia, the Gulf states and Turkey are reshaping North Africa’s security and economic landscape.

Morocco Country Report

Stimson Center’s North Africa, Sahel and Mediterranean Program published a flagship report, analyzing Morocco’s evolution into a strategic middle power amid economic transformation, climate stress, and geopolitical competition.

A Conversation with the Ambassadors of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger: The Sahel at a Crossroads

Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are reshaping the Sahel’s political and security landscape. Watch the Stimson Center event of a rare joint conversation with the ambassadors of all three Alliance of Sahel States members to discuss regional realignment, security, and future international engagement.

Algeria as a Geopolitical Actor: Strategic Dynamics and Regional Implications

In a recent Issue Brief, Dario Cristiani, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, examines Algeria’s constrained geopolitical influence amid rising competition, internal stability, and evolving Mediterranean partnerships.

A Conversation with Ms. Amina Benkhadra: Morocco’s Energy Future and Strategic Resources

Morocco is advancing its energy and minerals sectors to strengthen security and drive the green transition. Watch Amina Benkhadra, Director General of the National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines (ONHYM), explore strategy and partnerships at the Stimson Center.

On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

Tout sur l’Algérie

Legislative elections in Algeria: the FLN and the MSP retreat, breakthrough of the RND

The provisional results of the legislative elections of July 2 were unveiled on Monday, July 6. The ruling FLN remains in the lead, the RND progresses, the MSP is the big loser, the RCD and the PT are far behind.

S&P Global

COMMODITIES 2026: Oil majors flock to Libya as sentiment improves

As Libya’s oil production repeatedly hit new 12-year highs, BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil all agree to return to Libya to tap estimated 48 billion barrels of crude reserves.

Jeune Afrique

Mahmoud Dicko: the secrets of the Malian imam’s Algerian exile

Part one of an investigation into Malian imam Mahmoud Dicko’s two years of closely watched exile in Algeria while under surveillance from Algerian and Malian intelligence services.

Bloomberg

Egypt edges closer to $1.6 billion IMF payout with initial deal

IMF and Egypt reached a preliminary deal on the country’s latest program review, putting Cairo on track to unlock $1.6 billion in financing.

Orient XXI

Morocco. In Casablanca, silence, demolition

The medina of Casablanca has been the scene of large-scale destruction operations for several months, in anticipation of the construction, on the horizon of the 2030 World Cup, of a “Royal Avenue”, supposed to change the face of Morocco’s economic capital.

Business Insider Africa

Africa’s second most powerful military set to soon receive formidable Chinese fighter

Algeria is considering purchasing Chinese J-10C fighter jets and KJ-500 early warning aircraft to upgrade its air capabilities, reducing Algeria’s reliance on Russian military systems.

Business Insider Africa

U.S. courts Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso as Russia expands Sahel footprint

The U.S. is seeking to rebuild ties with Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso as Russia deepens its military presence across the Sahel through Africa Corps, shifting from prioritizing democratic reforms to focusing on security cooperation, counterterrorism and access to strategic minerals.

Le Point

World Cup 2026: football, a new battleground between Algeria and Morocco

How the world cup became an arena for regional prestige online and among fans. For the countries, the stakes are not only sporting, but also economic, political and regional

Investing.com

U.S. to suspend some duties on phosphate fertilizer from Morocco

President Donald Trump has authorized the temporary suspension of certain duties on phosphate fertilizer imported from Morocco, the White House said on Monday, as farmers grapple with shortages due to the Iran war.

Al Jazeera

Marco Rubio meets Libyan commander as U.S. pushes to resolve Libya crisis

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has met a top official from the self-styled Libyan National Army (LNA), which backs the government in eastern Libya and is competing for power with the internationally recognized authorities in the capital, Tripoli.

The Africa Report

Malian children at the heart of the gold rush

As Malians struggle to make ends meet, some children head to illegal gold mines in the western part of the country, eking out a living — underpaid, abused, and exploited.

Reuters

Senegal’s Faye plans to form his own political party

The report says global energy transition progress has largely stalled in 2026, with transition readiness declining for the first time in more than a decade. Morocco ranked 72nd globally and 5th in Africa in the WEF Energy Transition Index 2026, outperforming Egypt (84th), Algeria (94th), and Nigeria (80th) but trailing Tunisia (62nd).

Reuters

Morocco prevents attacks by cell loyal to Islamic State in Sahel

Morocco’s counterterrorism agency said on Monday it had foiled attack plots targeting sensitive sites and public security by ​a cell loyal to Islamic State’s affiliate in the Sahel with ten suspects arrested.

Financial Times

Shell alleged to have misled UK courts in Nigeria pollution case

Amended High Court pleadings accuse Shell of misrepresenting its Nigerian subsidiary SPDC as operationally independent, citing an internal 2008 email about the practice of dumping polluted material during spill clean-ups.

Africanews

Sudanese army claims recapture of Kulbus, key Darfur town on Chadian border

The Sudanese army said it had retaken Kulbus, a strategic town near the Chadian border, in what appeared to be its biggest battlefield gain in western Darfur since the fall of El-Fasher last year.

BBC

U.S. withdraws troops from Nigeria after Islamic State mission

The U.S. has pulled out most of the roughly 200 troops it deployed to Nigeria’s Lake Chad Basin, following a joint operation that killed senior Islamic State figure Abu-Bilal al-Minuki.

Hespress

Transport union: Over 80 Moroccan trucks stranded at Mauritania-Senegal border

More than 80 Moroccan freight trucks remain stranded at the Rosso border crossing between Mauritania and Senegal after being diverted from the Mali route because of ongoing security concerns.

Wamda

MENA startup investment falls to $148.2 million in June 2026

Investment activity across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) cooled in June 2026, with 41 startups collectively raising $148.2 million, marking a 76% decline from the previous month. However, funding was still 190% higher than in June 2025.

Gulf Times

Forced conscription returns as war looms in Ethiopia’s Tigray

Witness and rights group account young men being seized across Tigray as the TPLF conducts forced recruitment reminiscent of the 2020-22 war.

Yahoo Sports

Cape Verde World Cup team gets hero’s welcome in homecoming

Cape Verde’s national team received a hero’s welcome on Sunday upon their return home from the World Cup where they made big waves and took title holders Argentina to extra time in their final match.

African Press Agency

Strengthening vigilance to contain Diphtheria in Mauritania

Long considered a disease of the past, diphtheria continues to affect certain regions of Mauritania. Located in the east of the country, near the border with Mali, the Mbera refugee camp hosts communities particularly exposed.

Reporters Without Borders

Mauritania: RSF welcomes the bill on access to and use of public information, the fulfillment of a presidential commitment, and calls for stronger safeguards

Reporters Without Borders (RSF) welcomes the bill on access to information drafted by the Mauritanian government, a concrete response to one of the organization’s recommendations. It represents the fulfillment of a major commitment made by President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani in 2024 and reaffirmed to RSF in Nouakchott in May 2025.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

COMMENTARY

El-Obeid siege carries grim echoes of El-Fasher

Stimson Center Program Director Hafed Al Ghwell argues that the siege of El-Obeid could become a decisive point in Sudan, threatening humanitarian access, trade routes, military balance, and national unity.

COMMENTARY

The UK could help end Sudan’s civil war

Financial Times argues that Britain, as the UN Security Council’s penholder on Sudan, has leverage and should use it to proscribe a terrorist militia and cut off its supply lines.

COMMENTARY

Why America Gets Africa Wrong

Foreign Affairs explores why decades of U.S.-Africa policy have failed to achieve their aim even as they enrich African elites, arguing that African leaders have been able to push counterintuitive policy and Trump’s approach encourages marginal players to influence major decisions.

COMMENTARY

The United States and the Libyan stalemate: between Haftar, Tripoli and the UN

OSMED argues that Washington’s dual outreach to both Saddam Haftar and Tripoli risks freezing rather than solving Libya’s fragmentation, and that plans are susceptible to western militias and regional players in Turkey, Egypt, and the UAE.

COMMENTARY

Algeria’s financial reforms are showing progress. Washington should take note

Atlantic Council finds that Algeria is not unmovable in its financing reform, and Washington should take notice as it could signal broader opportunities to develop the bilateral relationship.

COMMENTARY

The Phosphate Pivot: Why Morocco and Tunisia Matter to U.S. Food Security

MENA2050 argues that China’s phosphate export freeze exposed a U.S. food-security gap and encourages Washington to invest in a Morocco-Tunisia fertilizer corridor rather than focusing on Tunis through a democratic lens.

COMMENTARY

Sisi at the G7: Positioning Egypt as a Regional Partner

ISPI analyzes how Egypt sought to convert its exposure to Middle Eastern crises into diplomatic capital and whether that growing international recognition can deliver tangible political and economic gains at home.

COMMENTARY

Five insights for building Africa’s inclusive prosperity

From the World Bank-AFD partnership, Dabalen and Melonio argue that the continent’s growth hinges on creating more jobs, investing in key industries, strengthening governance, deepening integration in the region, and leveraging migration as an economic opportunity.

REPORT

International Reserves, Currency Depreciation and Public Debt: New Evidence of Buffer Effects in Africa

ScienceDirect paper analyzing how accumulated international reserves have a positive impact on reducing the public debt in African economies, with results being observed during periods of large exchange rate depreciation and depending on exchange rate regime.

REPORT

International Reserves Accumulation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Is the Membership of the Franc Zone an Obstacle?

African Development Review article examines Franc Zone membership on reserve accumulation for Sub-Saharan African countries, with results informing policies to promote structural transformation, aimed at intensifying both intra-zone trade as well as countries’ attractiveness.

REPORT

Afreximbank Commodity Bulletin – Number1, 2026

Afreximbank analyzes supply-side shifts in the best and worst performing commodities year-to-date, Lithium and Cocoa, amid emerging climate risks.

REPORT

Labor Mobility and Skills Profiles of Refugees and Asylum Seekers in Algeria, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia

UNHCR analyzes the movements of refugees and migrants across Algeria, Tunisia, Mauritania and Morocco, as these continue to be important destination, departure and transit countries for migratory movements in and beyond North Africa. The Route-Based Approach offers a strategic framework and key points for targeted intervention.

BOOK REPORT

The Oxford Handbook of the Egyptian Economy

Mohieldin, Giugale, and Ramadan provide a comprehensive, in-depth analysis of the Egyptian economy and of its future development paths with and without reforms.

REPORT

Mali: Grave Abuses Amid Renewed Fighting

Human Rights Watch’s report documents and examines alleged grave abuses committed during renewed fighting in Mali based on Human Rights Watch’s investigation.

REPORT

Energy Transition Index 2026

World Economic Forum’s report covers global energy transition progress, finding that record clean energy investment has been accompanied by growing challenges related to energy security, infrastructure, and financing.

COMMENTARY

Why local networks are the future of aid in Africa

Stimson Center Program Director Hafed Al Ghwell argues that Africa’s current reality of overlapping conflict, climate shocks, and governance failure departs from the assumptions of traditional humanitarian responses, and that effective aid increasingly exists in small, local, and trusted networks able to operate where formal institutions can’t amidst enduring crises.  

COMMENTARY

The UN Mission in South Sudan in the Context of Changing Security and Regional Dynamics

A new Stimson Center policy memo examines the current security situation in South Sudan, the effects of Sudan’s war, and the implications of the recently renewed UNMISS mandate.

COMMENTARY

Algeria: energy diplomacy in the Sahel

Le Point examines how Algeria managed its energy assets to reengage strategy among Sahelian countries, gifting Niger a 40MW power plant, validating the Trans-Saharan pipeline feasibility study, and launching joint development of the Kafra oil block aiming to preserve Algiers’ regional influence against competing Moroccan initiatives.

REPORT

Outlook for Sustainable Agriculture in North Africa: Report Card Assessment

The Middle East Institute uses a comparative report card approach to assess water reliability, water use efficiency, agricultural land sustainability, and food sector economics across Egypt, Sudan, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, and Mauritania.

COMMENTARY

Is Africa becoming a new arena for adaptive drone warfare?

ISS Africa examines how the transfer of Ukrainian technology, combined with Africa’s existing arms networks, could drastically shift state and non-state armed actors across the Sahel, the DRC, and Sudan.

BOOK REVIEW

Book Review: How Africa Works by Joe Studwell

A review of Joe Studwell’s book on African economic development, assessing its arguments about industrial policy, agricultural transformation, and the structural conditions for growth against the continent’s contemporary development challenges.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

Libyan British Business Council

Understanding Libya’s Evolving Business Landscape

July 9, 2026 — Upcoming briefing tackles questions of how Libya’s markets are evolving, what recent political and economic developments mean for foreign companies, and how to identify credible partners and navigate local dynamics with confidence.

Policy Center for the New South

Africa Economic Symposium – 4th Edition: Turning Transitions into Growth

July 13, 2026 — In its 4th Edition, the symposium will address the limits of the current African growth model as the continent faces simultaneous shifts in climate, technology, and demography. Policy choices will determine whether these transitions support higher productivity and resilience or exacerbate social and economic vulnerabilities. 

Financial Times

Africa Summit: Mobilising growth in a new global order

October 21, 2026 — In its 13th year, the summit convenes leading policymakers, business leaders, financiers and visionaries to explore how Africa can sustain greater regional cooperation, investment, and leadership amid uncertainty.

Atlantic Council

2026 Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics

December 11, 2026 — The Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics is an annual flagship convening focused on issues at the nexus of economics, finance, foreign policy, and national security.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

PODCAST

Old Playbooks, New Threats: Africa’s Evolving Security Landscape

This episode examines how extremist groups are adapting, and response efforts are struggling to keep up, looking at how technology is reshaping how armed groups recruit, finance, and operate. 

VIDEO REPORT

Can Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces take control of el-Obeid?

Al Jazeera analyzes Sudan’s strategic city of el-Obeid has been targeted by intense attacks from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and why control of the city is so important.

PODCAST

ICC: Formal withdrawal of countries from the ESA “does not fundamentally change the legal situation” – The Grand Guest Africa

Julien Antouly, lecturer in international law and specialist in the Sahel countries, answers RFI’s questions on the withdrawal of Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso from ICC at the UN.

PODCAST

Benin and Niger push toward border reopening

BBC discusses Niger’s strict conditions for reopening its border with Benin with a new defense agreement, joint intelligence unit, and more as part of its Focus on Africa series.

VIDEO REPORT

Fire and floods hit Ghana’s capital as residents are left stranded

Al Jazeera displays scenes of a massive fire engulfed a rubber factory in Ghana’s capital, Accra, as severe flooding swamped parts of the city and slowed firefighters.

PODCAST

The Human Cost of the Strait of Hormuz Closure

Middle East Institute Alistair Taylor is joined by MEI Senior Fellow Intissar Fakir to explore what it means for the region, unpack the link between food security and regional stability, and assess how the strait’s reopening could impact those affected.

WEBINAR

How might an African credit rating agency improve the continent’s financing conditions?

A joint Chatham House panel discussion, held in collaboration with the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, assessing the potential impact of an African credit rating agency on reducing borrowing costs and lowering barriers to financing for African countries.

Job Opportunities

Refugees International

Middle East Program Officer

The Program Officer will provide administrative, programmatic, research, and advocacy support to RI’s Middle East portfolio, with a focus on displacement crises and humanitarian policy issues across the region, particularly on Syria and the Levant.

Middle East Institute

Research Assistant

The Research Assistant is a critical role within the MEI Policy Center, dedicated to supporting various research projects of MEI scholars, as well as managing logistics and administrative tasks, reporting to the Vice President in Washington, DC.

Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development (ACTED)

Chad: Climate and Environment Project Director  

Senior project director role based in N’Djamena leading climate and environment programming in Chad, overseeing initiatives addressing environmental resilience, adaptation, and natural resource management in the Sahel.

Apply by July 15th.

Institute for Security Studies

ISS Executive Director

At the helm of the ISS, the ED will steer a highly respected and trusted pan-African organization, ensuring that cutting-edge research translates into policy advice, technical support and training that improve human security in Africa.

Apply by July 20th.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Internship Programme for Near East and North Africa (RNE) 

The Internship Programme aims to attract talented young women and men who are strongly motivated to share their new perspectives, innovative ideas, and latest academic experience in FAO’s domains.

Apply by August 25th.

United Nations

Human Rights Intern: Middle East and North Africa

Assist Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights across research, analysis, and drafting of human right situations and violations.

Apply by Aug 31st.

International Rescue Committee

Senior Manager, Emergency Cash and Basic Needs (Sudan)

Leads IRC’s emergency cash assistance and basic-needs programming through December 2026.

Apply by December 31st.

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