North Africa Regional Outlook: July 1, 2026
From renewed escalation in Sudan and instability across the Sahel to North Africa’s green energy ambitions, regional partnerships undergirding the region’s changing security and geopolitical landscape
July 1, 2026

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JUNE 24—JULY 1: This Week in North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel.

From renewed escalation in Sudan and instability across the Sahel to North Africa’s green energy ambitions and competition, dynamic regional partnerships undergirding the region’s changing security and geopolitical landscape—explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel.

From the North Africa, the Mediterranean and the Sahel Program

Events, commentaries and updates from the Stimson Center.

Tripoli’s New Leverage: How the American Initiative Changed the Rules of Negotiation

In a brand-new commentary for the Stimson Center, Program Director Hafed Al Ghwell maps how a US-led change to closed-door negotiating and the ability of players to enforce settlements has reshaped who holds power in Libya’s reunification talks.

A Conversation with the Ambassadors of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger: The Sahel at a Crossroads

Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are reshaping the Sahel’s political and security landscape. Watch the Stimson Center event of a rare joint conversation with the ambassadors of all three Alliance of Sahel States members to discuss regional realignment, security, and future international engagement.

The Game of Middle Powers in North Africa

In a new commentary for the Stimson Center, Research Associate Yusuf Can & Stefan Lukas of Middle East Minds map how Russia, the Gulf states and Turkey are reshaping North Africa’s security and economic landscape.

Morocco Country Report

Stimson Center’s North Africa, Sahel and Mediterranean Program published a flagship report, analyzing Morocco’s evolution into a strategic middle power amid economic transformation, climate stress, and geopolitical competition.

Algeria as a Geopolitical Actor: Strategic Dynamics and Regional Implications

In a recent Issue Brief, Dario Cristiani, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, examines Algeria’s constrained geopolitical influence amid rising competition, internal stability, and evolving Mediterranean partnerships.

A Conversation with Ms. Amina Benkhadra: Morocco’s Energy Future and Strategic Resources

Morocco is advancing its energy and minerals sectors to strengthen security and drive the green transition. Watch Amina Benkhadra, Director General of the National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines (ONHYM), explore strategy and partnerships at the Stimson Center.

On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

Il Sole 24 Ore

Red Sea, Egypt seeks agreements to contain Ethiopia

Relations between Egypt and Ethiopia are overheated by the conflict over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a work as vital for Addis Ababa as it is contested by Cairo for the “theft” of the waters of the sacred river, the origin of approximately 90% of Egypt’s water resources.

Rigzone

Scatec Says Solar Project Can Save Egypt $400MM from LNG

Scatec’s Obelisk solar and battery storage project in Egypt can save the country as much as $400 million a year in liquefied natural gas imports, according to CEO Terje Pilskog.

Bloomberg

Egypt Asset Sales Ease Path Toward $1.6 Billion in IMF Funding

Egypt’s recent state-asset sales have satisfied the targets of an International Monetary Fund review, easing the path to unlock about $1.6 billion in financing for an economy buffeted by the Iran War.

The Africa Report

Sudan War: UN Envoy Pekka Haavisto Advances Talks in Washington

Haavisto’s Washington debut focused on building momentum toward a humanitarian truce, trying to keep momentum for multi-party talks that are showing early signs of promise but risk being derailed by the gathering storm in El Obeid.

U.S. State Department

Sanctioning the Networks Fueling Sudan’s War

The State Department are sanctioning eight individuals and entities prolonging the devastating conflict through procurement and recruitment operations. These networks supply weapons, explosives, and foreign fighters to both the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces.

Arab News

EU Condemns Tunisia over Conviction of Rights Activist Sihem Bensedrine

The European Union on Saturday condemned the sentencing of Sihem Bensedrine, one of Tunisia’s best-known opposition figures, and urged the authorities to restore pluralism in the country where the Arab Spring began.

Committee to Protect Journalists

Egypt Must Account for Missing Journalist Haidar Qandil

The Committee to Protect Journalists calls on Egyptian authorities to immediately reveal the whereabouts of prominent journalist Haidar Qandil, who disappeared Monday after leaving his office, according to his family and several media outlets.

UN News

Sudan: Window Is Closing to Prevent Wider Escalation in El Obeid

A senior United Nations official warned on Friday that the opportunity to prevent a major escalation in the Sudanese city of El Obeid is “rapidly narrowing” as fighting intensifies in and around the North Kordofan state capital.

The Africa Report

Abdourahamane Tiani’s New Realism Unsettles Niger’s Junta Allies

Niger’s junta leader Tiani is putting national interest over Sahelian solidarity, pursuing outreach to Algeria and Benin despite confrontational anti-Western posturing, a striking turn despite anti-French sentiment being intact.

The Africa Report

El-Obeid battle threatens to cement RSF control in western Sudan

The suspension of UN aid operations leaves a population of 600,000 at the mercy of an imminent Rapid Support Forces onslaught.

Washington Post

Eastern Libya Bans Entry for Citizens of Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Somalia

Authorities based in eastern Libya have banned entry for people from four nearby African countries, a move meant to stem the influx of migrants, having implications for nearly 940,000 migrants currently present in the country.

Morocco World News

Morocco Places 72nd Globally in WEF Energy Transition Index 2026

The report says global energy transition progress has largely stalled in 2026, with transition readiness declining for the first time in more than a decade. Morocco ranked 72nd globally and 5th in Africa in the WEF Energy Transition Index 2026, outperforming Egypt (84th), Algeria (94th), and Nigeria (80th) but trailing Tunisia (62nd).

Middle East Eye

‘No Reshape’: Algeria Prepares for Elections but Few Hold Out Hope for Change

Ahead of the July 2nd vote, opposition parties are willing to re-engage with political process, even though it remains under establishment control.

ECDC

Ebola Disease Outbreak in the DRC and Uganda

On 28 June, the DRC Ministry of Health reported a total of 1,274 confirmed cases, including 360 confirmed related deaths from the Bundibugyo Ebola strain. North African health authorities maintaining active monitoring of migration corridors as one case was confirmed in France and another in Germany.

African Development Bank

Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises Day: One Radio Announcement, One Registration Leads to a More Than 200% Income Jump for Nigerian Smallholder Farmer

African Development Bank Group financing for small and medium enterprises is driving food security and economic growth, looking at the case of a widow and wheat farmer in Gombe State, Nigeria.

African Development Bank

In Ghana, a New Program Offers Skills, Finance and Jobs for Women and Youth

The African Development Bank launched a new program in Ghana aimed at expanding economic opportunities for women and young people, especially in vulnerable and underserved communities where unemployment, limited access to finance, and social pressures continue to constrain potential.

Hespress

Morocco Faces Growing Labor Shortages Despite Unemployment Rate Above 12%

Morocco is facing a growing labor shortage across several key economic sectors despite unemployment remaining stubbornly high, highlighting deep structural imbalances in the country’s labor market, according to economists and industry stakeholders.

Reuters

Gunmen Abduct Students Sitting Exams in Northeast Nigeria

Gunmen burst into a secondary school in ​Nigeria’s northeastern Borno state and abducted students as ‌they were sitting exams on Monday morning, police said, the latest mass kidnapping in an insecure region.

Reuters

Eni and Libya’s NOC Launch Sabratha Compression Project to Boost Gas Output

Italian energy group Eni (ENI.MI), said ​it had successfully begun production ‌from its Sabratha Compression project with Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC), ​a strategic offshore development ​aimed at increasing gas output.

Al Jazeera

Burkina Faso Cuts Diplomatic Ties with Former Colonial Ruler France

The military government, in power since a coup in 2022, accused France of having ‘neo-colonial ambitions’, severing diplomatic relations with France over announcement on national television.

Al Jazeera

Morocco Jails 29, Including Politicians and Sports Figures, in Drug Trial

A Moroccan court has handed prison sentences of up to 12 years to 29 individuals following a two-year trial, marking one of the largest anti-corruption operations in Morocco’s history.

Morocco World News

Mastercard: 87% of Moroccan SMEs Confident About Business Outlook

Morocco’s small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) remain optimistic about their prospects over the next 12 months, with 87% expressing confidence in their business outlook, according to Mastercard’s latest SME Confidence Index.

TRT Afrika

Senegal MPs Back Constitutional Reform Reducing President’s Power

Senegal’s National Assembly has passed a bill revising the balance of power between the country’s executive and parliament, prompting the president to announce a national referendum on the matter.

Maghrebi.org

Mali: 12 Dead After Military Operation in Timbuktu

At least 12 people were killed amid a military operation by Malian Armed Forces (FAMA) and the Russian Africa Corps in Mali’s northern Timbuktu region.

Maghrebi.org

Libya Institutions Against UN Roadmap

Libya’s UN-backed structured dialogue is facing new resistance after High Council of State rapporteur Belqasim Debriz accused UNSMIL of interfering in a process meant to remain Libyan led.

Le Monde

‘They Have the Same Criminal Mentality’: One Year After Replacing Wagner, Russia’s Africa Corps Steps Up Abuses in Mali

One year after Africa Corps replaced Wagner in Mali, Africa Corps soldiers have already been implicated in numerous executions, sometimes accompanied by gruesome staging.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

COMMENTARY

Can North Africa power Europe’s green future?

Stimson Center Program Director Hafed Al Ghwell argues that Morocco and Algeria are competing to become Europe’s primary green ammonia supplier, with long-term success hinging on whether they can avoid depleting the natural capital their own populations depend on.

COMMENTARY

Egypt as a Middle Power: Short-Term Efficacy vs. Long-Term Fragility

Harvard’s Belfer Center examines how Cairo’s strategy of “strategic partnership without strategic alignment” has successfully extracted geopolitical rent and consolidated regime legitimacy, while largely avoiding great-power entanglements.

COMMENTARY

What Does the Niamey Airport Attack Mean for Niger’s Security?

ACLED analyzes the JNIM’s June 18 attack on Niamey Airport, arguing that it highlights a dangerous escalation in both the capability and ambition of these groups, marking a departure from localized rural insurgencies to coordinated strikes on vital national infrastructure. 

REPORT

International Reserves, Currency Depreciation and Public Debt: New Evidence of Buffer Effects in Africa

ScienceDirect paper analyzing how accumulated international reserves have a positive impact on reducing the public debt in African economies, with results being observed during periods of large exchange rate depreciation and depending on exchange rate regime.

REPORT

International Reserves Accumulation in Sub-Saharan Africa: Is the Membership of the Franc Zone an Obstacle?

African Development Review article in Wiley examines Franc Zone membership on reserve accumulation for Sub-Saharan African countries, with results informing policies to promote structural transformation, aimed at intensifying both intra-zone trade as well as countries’ attractiveness.

REPORT

Afreximbank Commodity Bulletin – Number1, 2026

Afreximbank analyzes supply-side shifts in the best and worst performing commodities year-to-date, Lithium and Cocoa, amid emerging climate risks.

REPORT

Labor Mobility and Skills Profiles of Refugees and Asylum Seekers in Algeria, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia

UNHCR analyzes the movements of refugees and migrants across Algeria, Tunisia, Mauritania and Morocco, as these continue to be important destination, departure and transit countries for migratory movements in and beyond North Africa. The Route-Based Approach offers a strategic framework and key points for targeted intervention.

BOOK REPORT

The Oxford Handbook of the Egyptian Economy

Mohieldin, Giugale, and Ramadan provide a comprehensive, in-depth analysis of the Egyptian economy and of its future development paths with and without reforms.

REPORT

Mali: Grave Abuses Amid Renewed Fighting

Human Rights Watch’s report documents and examines alleged grave abuses committed during renewed fighting in Mali based on Human Rights Watch’s investigation.

REPORT

Energy Transition Index 2026

World Economic Forum’s report covers global energy transition progress, finding that record clean energy investment has been accompanied by growing challenges related to energy security, infrastructure, and financing.

COMMENTARY

Why local networks are the future of aid in Africa

Stimson Center Program Director Hafed Al Ghwell argues that Africa’s current reality of overlapping conflict, climate shocks, and governance failure departs from the assumptions of traditional humanitarian responses, and that effective aid increasingly exists in small, local, and trusted networks able to operate where formal institutions can’t amidst enduring crises.  

COMMENTARY

The UN Mission in South Sudan in the Context of Changing Security and Regional Dynamics

A new Stimson Center policy memo examines the current security situation in South Sudan, the effects of Sudan’s war, and the implications of the recently renewed UNMISS mandate.

COMMENTARY

Algeria: energy diplomacy in the Sahel

Le Point examines how Algeria managed its energy assets to reengage strategy among Sahelian countries, gifting Niger a 40MW power plant, validating the Trans-Saharan pipeline feasibility study, and launching joint development of the Kafra oil block aiming to preserve Algiers’ regional influence against competing Moroccan initiatives.

COMMENTARY

Libya’s fractured oil state faces the Hormuz test

Opinion piece finds that Libya has a functional oil export regime and seems an obvious candidate to cover the supply shock of the Hormuz standoff, though its fractured security environment means protests or blockades can shut down hundreds of thousands of barrels remaining unable to fill the gap.

REPORT

Outlook for Sustainable Agriculture in North Africa: Report Card Assessment

The Middle East Institute uses a comparative report card approach to assess water reliability, water use efficiency, agricultural land sustainability, and food sector economics across Egypt, Sudan, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, and Mauritania.

COMMENTARY

Will global turmoil push Africa’s leaders to prioritise agriculture?

ISS Africa argues that the Iran war is part of many setbacks exposing agriculture vulnerability, finding that an African agricultural revolution anchored in industrialization, intra-African trade, low-carbon farming, and political commitment to agri-prosperity has become the most viable path to food security.

COMMENTARY

Is Africa becoming a new arena for adaptive drone warfare?

ISS Africa examines how the transfer of Ukrainian technology, combined with Africa’s existing arms networks, could drastically shift state and non-state armed actors across the Sahel, the DRC, and Sudan.

COMMENTARY

JNIM’s Blockade Tactics Threaten West Africa’s Trade Corridors

ISS Africa analysis of JNIM’s economic warfare strategy, examining how the group’s fuel and transport blockades and supply-route strangulation are choking commerce across Mali and into coastal West Africa.

COMMENTARY

The Global Costs of a Disruption of the Strait of Hormuz

Policy Center for the New South analysis quantifying the worldwide economic consequences of the Strait of Hormuz closure during the Iran war, examining the transmission of energy price shocks, shipping disruptions, and supply chain breakdowns to African and global economies.

REPORT

Central Bank Independence and Inflation Outcomes

IMF departmental paper examining the relationship between central bank independence and inflation outcomes, with analysis relevant to North African and Sahelian monetary authorities navigating the inflationary pressures of the Iran-war energy and food price shocks.

BOOK REVIEW

Book Review: How Africa Works by Joe Studwell

A review of Joe Studwell’s book on African economic development, assessing its arguments about industrial policy, agricultural transformation, and the structural conditions for growth against the continent’s contemporary development challenges.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

Middle East Institute

The Brewing Crisis on the Red Sea and Horn of Africa

July 1, 2026 — This event examines the geopolitical and economics implications of escalating tensions in the Horn of Africa, including regional security, the war in Sudan, and global maritime commerce.

Policy Center for the New South

Sailing by Lightning: Interest-Driven Europe-Africa Partnership for Effective Multilateralism

July 6, 2026 — Event examining how a pragmatic, interest-driven partnership between Europe and Africa could strengthen effective multilateralism, addressing trade, security, migration, and development cooperation in a fragmenting global order.

Policy Center for the New South

Africa Economic Symposium – 4th Edition: Turning Transitions into Growth

July 13, 2026 — In its 4th Edition, the symposium will address the limits of the current African growth model as the continent faces simultaneous shifts in climate, technology, and demography. Policy choices will determine whether these transitions support higher productivity and resilience or exacerbate social and economic vulnerabilities. 

Financial Times

Africa Summit: Mobilising growth in a new global order

October 21, 2026 — In its 13th year, the summit convenes leading policymakers, business leaders, financiers and visionaries to explore how Africa can sustain greater regional cooperation, investment, and leadership amid uncertainty.

Atlantic Council

2026 Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics

December 11, 2026 — The Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics is an annual flagship convening focused on issues at the nexus of economics, finance, foreign policy, and national security.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

PODCAST

Benin and Niger push toward border reopening

BBC discusses Niger’s strict conditions for reopening its border with Benin with a new defense agreement, joint intelligence unit, and more as part of its Focus on Africa series.

PODCAST

The Scramble for the Red Sea Is Not Cooling Down

This episode examines the shifting geopolitics of the Red Sea, focusing on great-power and middle-power competition, Gulf state influence, Ethiopia’s push for sea access, Houthi attacks, European involvement, and the region’s evolving security alignments as part of its The Horn series.

VIDEO REPORT

Fire and floods hit Ghana’s capital as residents are left stranded

Al Jazeera displays scenes of a massive fire engulfed a rubber factory in Ghana’s capital, Accra, as severe flooding swamped parts of the city and slowed firefighters.

PODCAST

The Human Cost of the Strait of Hormuz Closure

Middle East Institute Alistair Taylor is joined by MEI Senior Fellow Intissar Fakir to explore what it means for the region, unpack the link between food security and regional stability, and assess how the strait’s reopening could impact those affected.

VIDEO REPORT

Worsening hunger could push millions closer to famine in 13 global hotspots

A new Hunger Hotspots report released Wednesday by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) identifies 13 countries and territories where food insecurity is expected to worsen between June and November 2026.

PODCAST

Africa Aware: Navigating Somalia’s political stalemate

In this episode by Chatham House, Professor Afyare Abdi Elmi and Aweis Ahmed discuss scenarios to navigate Somalia’s current political stalemate and pathways for a peaceful political transition. 

WEBINAR

How might an African credit rating agency improve the continent’s financing conditions?

A joint Chatham House panel discussion, held in collaboration with the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, assessing the potential impact of an African credit rating agency on reducing borrowing costs and lowering barriers to financing for African countries.

VIDEO REPORT

Sudan Crisis Worsens as Civil War Enters 4th Year and Hormuz Closure Disrupts Aid

PBS NewsHour reports on Sudan’s deepening famine and how the Strait of Hormuz closure is compounding the humanitarian catastrophe by disrupting fuel and fertilizer supplies for Sudanese farmers.

WEBINAR

Bridging the Skills Gap: Mobilising Southern Mediterranean Talent to Address Labour Shortages

Policy Center for the New South event examining how to mobilize talent across the Southern Mediterranean to address European and regional labor shortages, focusing on skills development, migration policy, and workforce mobility between North Africa and Europe.

Job Opportunities

Environment Programme of the United Nations

Regional Coordinator – CITES Tree Species Project (Africa)

Contract role to ensure a smooth launch of the implementation of shortlisted projects in the Africa region, support the mapping of planned activities, and the delivery of high-quality outputs in all target countries of the region.

Apply by July 7th.

Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development (ACTED)

Chad: Climate and Environment Project Director  

Senior project director role based in N’Djamena leading climate and environment programming in Chad, overseeing initiatives addressing environmental resilience, adaptation, and natural resource management in the Sahel.

Apply by July 15th.

Institute for Security Studies

ISS Executive Director

At the helm of the ISS, the ED will steer a highly respected and trusted pan-African organization, ensuring that cutting-edge research translates into policy advice, technical support and training that improve human security in Africa.

Apply by July 20th.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Internship Programme for Near East and North Africa (RNE) 

The Internship Programme aims to attract talented young women and men who are strongly motivated to share their new perspectives, innovative ideas, and latest academic experience in FAO’s domains.

Apply by August 25th.

United Nations

Human Rights Intern: Middle East and North Africa

Assist Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights across research, analysis, and drafting of human right situations and violations.

Apply by Aug 31st.

International Rescue Committee

Senior Manager, Emergency Cash and Basic Needs (Sudan)

Leads IRC’s emergency cash assistance and basic-needs programming through December 2026.

Apply by December 31st.

Middle East Institute

Research Assistant

The Research Assistant is a critical role within the MEI Policy Center, dedicated to supporting various research projects of MEI scholars, as well as managing logistics and administrative tasks, reporting to the Vice President in Washington, DC.

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Research Internship (Unpaid)

The research interns will assist the Center’s scholars in their research on political, economic, security and education reforms topics related to the MENA region are selected for period of three to six months on a full-time basis.

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