From the strategic and diplomatic realms to the budgetary and tactical levels, Trump’s decision makes no sense.
Donald Trump announced at a campaign rally on Saturday that he will walk away from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a move that his National Security Adviser, John Bolton, has long endorsed. The reasons given for withdrawal are Russia’s deployment of a prohibited ground-based cruise missile and China’s stockpile of INF-range missiles.
There are effective treaty-compliant counters to the Russian violation by means of air-delivered and sea-based capabilities that the Pentagon is already pursuing. The White House could also push Vladimir Putin to return to treaty compliance by linking American restraint on deploying more missile defenses in Europe to the removal of Russia’s noncompliant missiles. But neither Trump nor Bolton has demonstrated a fondness for diplomacy or an interest in reaffirming the INF Treaty. This move is about freedom of U.S. action and a deep, abiding distrust of treaties.
Trump’s withdrawal from the INF Treaty fits into an “America First” strategy that undermines diplomatic ties. That’s the take-away by U.S. friends and allies — along with a foreboding sense of an intensified nuclear competition.
Highlighting the China angle for exiting the INF Treaty is new. Previously, Moscow complained more about this than Washington, and Asian countries haven’t been overly alarmed about China’s nuclear-tipped missiles. Instead, they appear far more concerned about China’s growing conventional seapower and its investment strategies that offer too little in return for massive debt.
Michael Krepon is Co-Founder of the Stimson Center.
Nonproliferation
Share:
From the strategic and diplomatic realms to the budgetary and tactical levels, Trump’s decision makes no sense.
Donald Trump announced at a campaign rally on Saturday that he will walk away from the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a move that his National Security Adviser, John Bolton, has long endorsed. The reasons given for withdrawal are Russia’s deployment of a prohibited ground-based cruise missile and China’s stockpile of INF-range missiles.
There are effective treaty-compliant counters to the Russian violation by means of air-delivered and sea-based capabilities that the Pentagon is already pursuing. The White House could also push Vladimir Putin to return to treaty compliance by linking American restraint on deploying more missile defenses in Europe to the removal of Russia’s noncompliant missiles. But neither Trump nor Bolton has demonstrated a fondness for diplomacy or an interest in reaffirming the INF Treaty. This move is about freedom of U.S. action and a deep, abiding distrust of treaties.
Trump’s withdrawal from the INF Treaty fits into an “America First” strategy that undermines diplomatic ties. That’s the take-away by U.S. friends and allies — along with a foreboding sense of an intensified nuclear competition.
Highlighting the China angle for exiting the INF Treaty is new. Previously, Moscow complained more about this than Washington, and Asian countries haven’t been overly alarmed about China’s nuclear-tipped missiles. Instead, they appear far more concerned about China’s growing conventional seapower and its investment strategies that offer too little in return for massive debt.
Michael Krepon is Co-Founder of the Stimson Center.
This article originally appeared in Defense One. Read more here.
Recent & Related
Xi Jinping’s Visit to Pyongyang: Regional Roundup
The Post-War Gulf: Arms Competition, Nuclear Latency, and Regional Security
Lessons for US-India Strategic Partnership
Is Claudia Sheinbaum Head of State or Head of Her Party?
Bushehr, Barakah, and the Future of Nuclear Security in the Persian Gulf
Is Congress Losing Its Grip On The Nation’s Purse Strings?
What Would Militia Disarmament in Iraq Actually Mean and Can It Be Achieved?
The Silent Infrastructure of Survival in Iran
Renewing the UN’s Toolbox for Peace and Security
Is the Iran War Worth It?
Culture is Currency Between Trump and Xi
The Sino-Moroccan Green Partnership in the Shadow of the Iran War
การทำเหมืองแร่โดยไม่ได้รับการควบคุมตามแนวแม่น้ำในแผ่นดินใหญ่ของเอเชียตะวันออกเฉียงใต้
ການຂຸດຄົ້ນ-ປຸງແຕ່ງແຮ່ທີ່ບໍ່ຖືກຕ້ອງ ຢູ່ຕາມແມ່ນໍ້າສາຍຕ່າງໆ ຢູ່ແຜ່ນດິນໃຫຍ່ອາຊີຕາເວັນອອກສຽງໃຕ້ Unregulated Mining Along Rivers in Mainland Southeast Asia (Lao Language)
Current Geopolitics Shift Deep-Sea Mining Debates
Navigating Seabed Mining in the Cook Islands: A Conversation with John Parianos
การทำเหมืองแร่โดยไม่ได้รับการควบคุมตามแนวแม่น้ำในแผ่นดินใหญ่ของเอเชียตะวันออกเฉียงใต้
Mining in Mainland Southeast Asia – River Basins Dashboard
Unregulated Mining Along Rivers in Mainland Southeast Asia
Trump’s Critical Minerals Search in Africa Won’t Tip the Scales Against China
The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Violence Against Women and Girls
Implications of Chinese Influence Operations for South Korea and the US-ROK Alliance
Find an Expert
Home to more than 100 scholars and global affiliates, the Stimson Center is proud to be a magnet for the world’s leading experts on the most pressing foreign policy and national security issues of our time. Explore our experts and their work.