In April, the U.S. Department of Justice indicted Rubén Rocha Moya, governor of the state of Sinaloa, and nine other high-level state officials, including a senator, and the mayor of Culiacán, Sinaloa’s capital — all members of the ruling Morena party. The U.S. indictment of a sitting governor was unprecedented and will reshape US-Mexico relations and security cooperation. It will also force Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, to choose between party loyalty and her ambitions to bring the country’s powerful drug cartels to heel.
In the United States, the indictment was regarded as the predictable next chapter in Trump’s aggressive regional strategy, known as the “Donroe Doctrine,” and his attempts to slow the flow of fentanyl from Mexico to U.S. communities. He has also threatened cross-border strikes against cartel targets over Mexico’s objection.
In Mexico, however, the indictment was both unexpected and jaw-dropping. It has set off a national debate pitting public demands to fight violent crime and corruption against public discomfort with U.S. interventions and Sheinbaum’s reluctance to target members of her party.
So far, Mexicans — aware of the country’s troubled criminal justice system — seem willing to swallow a bigger role for the United States in battling gangsters. There was little uproar, for example, when the United States boasted of its role in the February raid that killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” the leader of the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG). The public reaction was similarly tolerant to news in May that CIA agents in Chihuahua had been cooperating with state counternarcotics authorities.
Until the indictments, Sheinbaum herself also seemed open to a prominent crime-fighting role for the United States, though she rejected U.S. operations on Mexican soil. In addition to cooperating with the United States in the “El Mencho” takedown, she and her security secretary, Omar García Harfuch, worked closely with Washington to hand over 90 cartel leaders and operatives. Since the indictments of Morena officials, however, the president has become more radical in her defense of Mexican sovereignty.
Though some in Morena see an opportunity to purge criminals from the party, Sheinbaum has placed Rocha Moya’s indictment on the wrong side of her modus operandi: “cooperation without subordination.” She condemned the decision as meddling in Mexican politics and ordered her own investigation into the allegations. Later, she accused “sectors of the U.S. far right” of “interference” in Mexico’s affairs. Her party is now promoting a constitutional amendment that would permit the authorities to throw out election results in cases of foreign intervention.
For now, that posture has not produced a rally-around-the-flag effect. A recent El País poll showed a 13-percentage-point drop in Sheinbaum’s popularity. Over 60% of Mexicans say the accusations against Rocha Moya are credible, and a similar percentage would support his extradition. Less than one-quarter of Mexicans are confident Mexican authorities could effectively investigate and judge those indited, underscoring Mexico’s long history of outsourcing justice to the United States. Just a few weeks ago, a former Sinaloa security chief surrendered to U.S authorities in Arizona. The notorious former leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, Joaquín Guzmán Loera, known as “El Chapo,” is serving a life sentence in the United States.
The saga is also bad for Morena’s brand. The party, founded by Sheinbaum’s mentor, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, leans heavily on a perception of “ethical superiority.” Yet instead of acknowledging corruption among his allies, AMLO, as the former president is known, has condemned the indictments and urged Trump to reject the advice of “the parasites surrounding him.”
In the meantime, Trump is not waiting for Sheinbaum to come around. Since the indictments, the United States has canceled the visas of high-level Mexican officials, postponed a key meeting on trade, and announced a review of Mexico’s 53 consulates. The escalation has cast a shadow on the review of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement and on the World Cup, co-hosted by all three governments.
The U.S. government has clearly concluded that fighting Mexico’s cartels requires severing their links to public institutions, whatever the diplomatic costs and the political challenges for Sheinbaum. The indictments painted a troubling picture of corruption in Mexico, with criminal organizations influencing elections, puppeteering prosecutors, and shaping security policy, at least in Sinaloa.
Sheinbaum still has time to reconsider her approach. She had been building credibility for her security strategy, which favors intelligence collection and investigations over the cinematic killings of kingpins. That strategy showed impressive results in Mexico City during her time as mayor. At the same time, she was finding ways to satisfy Trump’s appetite for rapid and visible progress, such as the killing of “El Mencho.”
All of that, however, will be jeopardized if Sheinbaum is unwilling to clean house in Morena, in cooperation with the United States and, more importantly, with the overwhelming support of Mexican citizens.
Grand Strategy
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In April, the U.S. Department of Justice indicted Rubén Rocha Moya, governor of the state of Sinaloa, and nine other high-level state officials, including a senator, and the mayor of Culiacán, Sinaloa’s capital — all members of the ruling Morena party. The U.S. indictment of a sitting governor was unprecedented and will reshape US-Mexico relations and security cooperation. It will also force Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, to choose between party loyalty and her ambitions to bring the country’s powerful drug cartels to heel.
In the United States, the indictment was regarded as the predictable next chapter in Trump’s aggressive regional strategy, known as the “Donroe Doctrine,” and his attempts to slow the flow of fentanyl from Mexico to U.S. communities. He has also threatened cross-border strikes against cartel targets over Mexico’s objection.
In Mexico, however, the indictment was both unexpected and jaw-dropping. It has set off a national debate pitting public demands to fight violent crime and corruption against public discomfort with U.S. interventions and Sheinbaum’s reluctance to target members of her party.
So far, Mexicans — aware of the country’s troubled criminal justice system — seem willing to swallow a bigger role for the United States in battling gangsters. There was little uproar, for example, when the United States boasted of its role in the February raid that killed Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho,” the leader of the Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG). The public reaction was similarly tolerant to news in May that CIA agents in Chihuahua had been cooperating with state counternarcotics authorities.
Until the indictments, Sheinbaum herself also seemed open to a prominent crime-fighting role for the United States, though she rejected U.S. operations on Mexican soil. In addition to cooperating with the United States in the “El Mencho” takedown, she and her security secretary, Omar García Harfuch, worked closely with Washington to hand over 90 cartel leaders and operatives. Since the indictments of Morena officials, however, the president has become more radical in her defense of Mexican sovereignty.
Though some in Morena see an opportunity to purge criminals from the party, Sheinbaum has placed Rocha Moya’s indictment on the wrong side of her modus operandi: “cooperation without subordination.” She condemned the decision as meddling in Mexican politics and ordered her own investigation into the allegations. Later, she accused “sectors of the U.S. far right” of “interference” in Mexico’s affairs. Her party is now promoting a constitutional amendment that would permit the authorities to throw out election results in cases of foreign intervention.
For now, that posture has not produced a rally-around-the-flag effect. A recent El País poll showed a 13-percentage-point drop in Sheinbaum’s popularity. Over 60% of Mexicans say the accusations against Rocha Moya are credible, and a similar percentage would support his extradition. Less than one-quarter of Mexicans are confident Mexican authorities could effectively investigate and judge those indited, underscoring Mexico’s long history of outsourcing justice to the United States. Just a few weeks ago, a former Sinaloa security chief surrendered to U.S authorities in Arizona. The notorious former leader of the Sinaloa Cartel, Joaquín Guzmán Loera, known as “El Chapo,” is serving a life sentence in the United States.
The saga is also bad for Morena’s brand. The party, founded by Sheinbaum’s mentor, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, leans heavily on a perception of “ethical superiority.” Yet instead of acknowledging corruption among his allies, AMLO, as the former president is known, has condemned the indictments and urged Trump to reject the advice of “the parasites surrounding him.”
In the meantime, Trump is not waiting for Sheinbaum to come around. Since the indictments, the United States has canceled the visas of high-level Mexican officials, postponed a key meeting on trade, and announced a review of Mexico’s 53 consulates. The escalation has cast a shadow on the review of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement and on the World Cup, co-hosted by all three governments.
The U.S. government has clearly concluded that fighting Mexico’s cartels requires severing their links to public institutions, whatever the diplomatic costs and the political challenges for Sheinbaum. The indictments painted a troubling picture of corruption in Mexico, with criminal organizations influencing elections, puppeteering prosecutors, and shaping security policy, at least in Sinaloa.
Sheinbaum still has time to reconsider her approach. She had been building credibility for her security strategy, which favors intelligence collection and investigations over the cinematic killings of kingpins. That strategy showed impressive results in Mexico City during her time as mayor. At the same time, she was finding ways to satisfy Trump’s appetite for rapid and visible progress, such as the killing of “El Mencho.”
All of that, however, will be jeopardized if Sheinbaum is unwilling to clean house in Morena, in cooperation with the United States and, more importantly, with the overwhelming support of Mexican citizens.
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