North Africa Regional Outlook: June 10, 2026
From energy markets scrambling to adjust to continued Hormuz disruptions to Algeria advancing ambitious plans to position itself as a key energy supplier to Europe, as well as new Trump administration visa restrictions reshaping U.S.–Africa mobility and engagement
June 10, 2026

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JUNE 3—10: This Week in North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel. From energy markets scrambling to adjust to continued Strait of Hormuz disruptions to Algeria advancing ambitious plans to position itself as a key energy supplier to Europe, as well as new Trump administration visa restrictions reshaping U.S.–Africa mobility and engagement—explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel.

Read the North Africa Weekly on LinkedIn or join the conversation on X: @StimsonNAfrica

From the Stimson Center

Deeper dives from the Stimson Center.

A Conversation with the Ambassadors of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger: The Sahel at a Crossroads

Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are reshaping the Sahel’s political and security landscape. Join the Stimson Center on May 21st for a rare joint conversation with the ambassadors of all three Alliance of Sahel States members on regional realignment, security, and future international engagement.

The Sino-Moroccan Green Partnership in the Shadow of the Iran War

Amanda Chen, Research Fellow at the ChinaMed Project of the Torino World Affairs Institute writes on China’s green investments in Morocco are reshaping trade, energy, and supply chain dynamics as the Iran War exposes new vulnerabilities across global markets.

Morocco Country Policy Report

Stimson Center’s North Africa, Sahel and Mediterranean Program published a flagship report, Analyzing Morocco’s evolution into a strategic middle power amid economic transformation, climate stress, and geopolitical competition.

Algeria as a Geopolitical Actor: Strategic Dynamics and Regional Implications

In a recent Issue Brief, Dario Cristiani, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council, examines Algeria’s constrained geopolitical influence amid rising competition, internal stability, and evolving Mediterranean partnerships.

A Conversation with Ms. Amina Benkhadra: Morocco’s Energy Future and Strategic Resources

Morocco is advancing its energy and minerals sectors to strengthen security and drive the green transition. Watch Amina Benkhadra, Director General of the National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines (ONHYM), explore strategy and partnerships at the Stimson Center.

On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

Al-Monitor

U.S., Turkey Boost Libya Coordination, but Unity Push Faces Political Hurdles

Washington and Ankara are stepping up coordination on efforts to unify Libya’s divided institutions around the Massad Boulos power-sharing framework, but analysts warn that major financial obstacles, resistance from Misrata factions, and internal Haftar family tensions mean the unity push faces significant political headwinds.

New York Times

Mali’s Generals Promised to Bring Peace. Things Are Now Much Worse.

New York Times reporting on the multiplying armed fronts in Mali, documenting not only the JNIM-FLA conflict against the Malian junta and Russia Africa Corps but the increasingly violent rivalry between JNIM (al-Qaeda-linked) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) for territorial and ideological dominance across the Sahel.

Reuters

U.S. to Slash Number of Embassies in Africa That Process Visas

The Trump administration plans to significantly reduce the number of U.S. embassies in Africa authorized to process visa applications, a move that aid organizations and diplomats warn will disproportionately harm students, diaspora families, and civil society actors.

Financial Times

Race for rare earths sparks concern about environmental damage 
More than 6,000 people living near a mine in Madagascar are locked in a dispute with Rio Tinto over alleged environmental damage linked to the extraction of a rare earth mineral key to modern industries. 

Al-Monitor

Algeria Begins Work on Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline to Europe

Reports on Algeria’s launch of construction work on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline linking Nigeria’s gas fields through Niger and Algeria to European markets, framed as a strategic response to the Hormuz closure and the surge in European demand for non-Gulf energy alternatives.

The Guardian

The Africa exception: the slavery reparations debate was once ‘unthinkable’. Now it is unavoidable

The architect of the African Union’s reparations framework for the historic UN resolution explains why demands for historical justice are inseparable from the struggle for Black sovereignty

New York Times

OPEC Plus to Boost Oil Production as Ceasefire in Iran Remains Elusive

OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in July, but the move is expected to have little real impact because the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stranded much of the group’s oil exports, leaving global energy markets tight and prices elevated as the U.S.-Iran conflict continues without a ceasefire.

Financial Times

Ebola and jihadis threaten Africa’s oldest national park

Africa’s oldest national park, Virunga National Park, is simultaneously battling a growing Ebola outbreak and escalating attacks by ISIS-affiliated militants, straining conservation and public health efforts in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo as officials warn of a worsening humanitarian crisis.

OCHA

24 Million People in the Sahel Urgently Need Aid and the World Needs to Do More

Launches the 2026 Humanitarian Needs and Response Overview for the Sahel, with Regional Head Charles Bernimolin warning that every funding gap has a human cost and calling for urgent international action.

Financial Times

Oil tanker owners fear market crash after Iran war drove record profits 

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has generated record profits for global oil tanker operators, but industry leaders fear a sharp market downturn if the waterway reopens, as a surge in new ship orders risks creating excess capacity and triggering another boom-and-bust cycle.

Africanews

Benin’s New President Rebuilding Ties with Sahel States

President Romuald Wadagni visits Niamey and Ouagadougou less than a week after taking office, with Niger committing to begin reopening the shared border closed since the 2023 coup.

APAnews (African Press Agency)

Electoral Framework Talks for Libya Underway in Tunisia

UNSMIL-hosted “4+4” committee resumes work in Tunis on Libya’s electoral legislation, following the April Rome agreement on restructuring the HNEC board and the May 4 preparatory session.

Seneweb

Algeria offers a 40 Megawatt power plant to Niger

Algerian PM’s June 3 visit to Niamey to inaugurate a 40 MW power plant donated to Niger, framing Algeria’s energy diplomacy as part of a deliberate saturation strategy in the Sahel.

Al Jazeera

Ranking Sub-Saharan Africa’s World Cup Chances: Senegal, Ghana, South Africa?

Preview of West African and Sahel states’ football prospects heading into the June 11, 2026 FIFA World Cup kickoff, examining how the Atlas Lions’ squad value alone exceeds Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia combined.

Morocco World News

Morocco’s Squad Value Surpasses Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia Combined

Transfermarkt valuation places the Atlas Lions at €490.20 million ahead of the FIFA World Cup, exceeding the combined €442.73 million of Algeria, Egypt and Tunisia, reflecting Morocco’s rise as Africa’s dominant footballing nation.

Reuters

Mali attacks spotlight the growing reach of militants across West Africa

Ongoing Reuters mapping feature tracking JNIM and FLA territorial gains following the April 25 offensive, with continued ground updates from Kidal, Ménaka and Gao regions through early June.

Al-Monitor

Turkey Pushes Iraq-Syria Trade Routes as Hormuz Crisis Disrupts Gulf Shipping

Analysis of Turkey’s move to position itself as the key overland transit corridor for Gulf-to-Europe trade as the Hormuz closure forces a rerouting of shipping lanes, examining how Ankara is leveraging its Iraq and Syria agreements to capture trade flows previously dominated by maritime routes.

UNHCR Operational Data Portal

Sudan Situation — Weekly Update on New Arrivals to Neighboring Countries (June 5, 2026)

Tracks new Sudanese refugee arrivals to Chad, CAR, Egypt, Libya, South Sudan and Uganda, with protection risk data and border monitoring indicators for newly displaced households.

OHCHR

Türk Issues High Alert on Widening Sudan Conflict Amid Increased Use of Drones

Documents that drone strikes accounted for at least 880 civilian deaths—more than 80% of all conflict-related civilian deaths between January and April 2026—making armed drones by far the leading cause of civilian casualties in Sudan’s war.

Amnesty International

Unjust One-Year Prison Sentence for Activist Ahmed Douma Emblematic of Egypt’s Ongoing Arbitrary Detention Crisis

Amnesty condemns the one-year prison sentence handed to prominent Egyptian activist Ahmed Douma, arguing the verdict exemplifies a broader pattern of arbitrary detention used to silence dissent and suppress civil society in Egypt.

Reuters

EIB Lends €578 Million to Morocco to Rebuild from 2023 Earthquake

The European Investment Bank approves a €578 million loan to Morocco to support reconstruction in Al Haouz and neighboring provinces devastated by the September 2023 earthquake, three years after the disaster killed nearly 3,000 people.

Reuters

French National Gets 20 Years in Mali over Alleged Destabilisation Plot

A Malian court sentences a French citizen to 20 years in prison for an alleged plot to destabilize the country, in a case that Bamako framed as evidence of external interference and that Paris condemned as politically motivated.

Reuters

UN Blames Online Disinformation for Protests Outside Libya Offices

The UN says coordinated online disinformation campaigns were behind protests outside UNSMIL and other UN offices in Libya, marking one of the first formal UN attributions of disinformation to specific Libya-related unrest.

Enterprise AM

Exclusive: Egypt Is Looking to Raise $10.3 Billion from State Asset Sales by End of FY 2026–27

Exclusive report on Egypt’s accelerated state asset privatization program, with the government targeting $10.3 billion in proceeds from the sale of military-owned enterprises, public utilities, and real estate by the end of the 2026–27 fiscal year.

Hespress

Trump Adviser and French Foreign Minister Discuss Morocco Autonomy Plan in Africa Talks

Reports on discussions between U.S. Senior Adviser for Africa Massad Boulos and French FM Jean-Noël Barrot on Western Sahara, with both sides reaffirming support for Morocco’s autonomy plan as the basis for a negotiated solution.

Defense News

Experts Warn Terrorism Threat Is Rising in Africa as U.S. Pulls Back

A report on analysis warning that the Trump administration’s drawdown of U.S. counterterrorism assets, intelligence-sharing, and diplomatic engagement in Africa is creating a vacuum that JNIM, ISSP, and al-Shabaab are actively exploiting.

Le Point

Algeria: The Countdown for the Legend of Boualem Sansal

Analysis of the continuing legal saga of Franco-Algerian novelist Boualem Sansal, examining the Algerian government’s handling of his case, his November 2025 pardon, and the broader implications for freedom of expression and Franco-Algerian relations.

Punch Nigeria

Algeria Begins Work on Trans-African Gas Pipeline to Europe

Nigeria’s Punch newspaper covers Algeria’s launch of construction work on the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) linking Nigeria’s gas fields to Algeria and onward to Europe, framed as a strategic response to the Hormuz closure and European demand for non-Gulf energy.

Business Insider Africa

World’s Largest Shipping Company Invests $1.5 Billion into Europe–North Africa Corridor

MSC (Mediterranean Shipping Company) announces a $1.5 billion investment in port infrastructure and logistics capacity along the Europe–North Africa shipping corridor, capitalizing on the rerouting of global trade driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure.

Business Insider Africa

Africa’s Biggest Maize Producer Resumes Export after Historic Harvest Forecast

South Africa resumes maize exports following a record harvest, with implications for food security across the Sahel and East Africa where maize prices have been elevated by Hormuz-driven fertilizer shortages and poor planting-season inputs.

World Bank Group / MIGA

World Bank Group to Double Guarantees for Africa to Catalyze Investment and Create Jobs

The World Bank’s Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency announces a doubling of political risk guarantees for African investments to unlock private capital, targeting $6.4 billion in annual guarantees to support infrastructure, energy, and agriculture projects across the continent.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

COMMENTARY

Boom or bust: the limits of Africa’s youth bulge

Stimson Center Program Director Hafed Al Ghwell argues that Africa’s youth bulge is a temporary demographic opportunity, and unless governments create jobs, improve education, build infrastructure, and support entrepreneurship, the continent’s growing workforce could become a source of economic stagnation, migration, and instability rather than prosperity. 

COMMENTARY

How Africa Can Benefit from the Global Mineral Rush

Landry Signé argues that despite holding 30% of global critical mineral reserves, Africa captures only 10% of global revenues, and outlines value-addition strategies for Sahel mineral producers including Mali (lithium) and Niger (uranium).

COMMENTARY

A Balancing Act in a Rentier Reality: Egypt and the Iran War

TIMEP analysis examining Egypt’s paradoxical position as a structurally dependent rentier state—exposed through Suez Canal revenue losses, energy import costs, and tightening Gulf financial support—while pursuing deliberate adaptive non-alignment in the U.S.–Israel-Iran conflict.

COMMENTARY

Egypt’s Weakening Arab Leverage and Ethiopia’s Strategic Opening

Ethiopian Institute of Foreign Affairs (IFA) analysis arguing that Egypt’s diplomatic credibility in the Arab world has been eroded by its restrained response to the Iran war and its ongoing tensions with Gulf partners, creating a strategic window for Ethiopia to advance its Red Sea access ambitions and GERD position.

COMMENTARY

The Middle East War Will Reshape Africa’s Democratic Trajectory

Frances Z. Brown argues that the economic fallout from the U.S.-Israel war on Iran—through fertilizer scarcity, rising fuel costs, remittance disruptions, and supply chain shocks—will reshape Africa’s already fragile democratic trajectory by fueling popular mobilization, upending key elections in Zambia, Nigeria and Kenya, and testing whether democratic or authoritarian governments prove more adept at cushioning the blow.

COMMENTARY

France’s Expanding Footprint in Egypt

ISPI analysis documenting France’s deepening economic, military and political engagement with Egypt amid the Iran war, examining how Paris is positioning itself as Egypt’s preferred European partner and what this means for EU strategic coherence in the Mediterranean.

COMMENTARY

Could China Help Make Africa a Factory for the World?

The Economist examines whether China’s tariff-free access announcement and manufacturing investment push could help transform parts of Africa into export-oriented industrial zones, assessing the structural constraints—infrastructure gaps, governance deficits, and currency risks—that have stymied similar initiatives.

REPORT

Mauritania Rising: Economic and Investment Update

Mauritania Rising covering recent economic and investment developments in Mauritania, including the country’s gas sector progress, Chinese investment in port infrastructure, and Mauritania’s positioning as an emerging energy hub bridging the Maghreb and West Africa.

ACLED

Weekly Africa Overview: JNIM Launches Deadly Campaign Against Dozo Militias in Mali

Documents JNIM’s intensified targeting of Dozo self-defense militias in Mali alongside ADF escalation in Ituri amid the Ebola outbreak, with the Sahel remaining the continent’s deadliest conflict zone.

COMMENTARY

U.S. Minerals Diplomacy Tests Sahel Countries’ Partnership Choices

ISS Africa analyzes U.S. conciliatory outreach to Bamako and Niamey driven by critical-minerals interests, citing Mali’s projected 890,000-tonne lithium reserves and Niger’s 454,000-tonne uranium reserves as the key drivers.

COMMENTARY

Algeria’s Return to the Sahel: An Opportunity to Show AES Cohesion

Examines Algiers’ bilateral re-engagement with Niger and Burkina Faso through energy infrastructure diplomacy, including the June 3 Niamey power plant inauguration, while tensions with Bamako over Western Sahara remain unresolved.

COMMENTARY

The Sahel region is less secure than ever: foreign forces just add to the cycle of violence

The Conversation analysis arguing that foreign interventions, in combination with national actors’ ambitions, have helped to transform the region into a space of militarized regime survival, jihadist expansion and geopolitical competition between Russia and western democracies.

REPORT

Sudan, June 2026 Monthly Forecast

Security Council outlines the planned 120-day briefing on Sudan and the 1591 Sanctions Committee briefing, with background on recent SAF drone strikes on Nyala and RSF strikes on Khartoum International Airport in May.

COMMENTARY

Elite capture of Africa’s critical minerals mustn’t be mistaken for resource sovereignty

The exploitation of resource riches by unaccountable leaders is not the same as states stewarding mineral supplies for the benefit of their people, write Christopher Vandome and Tighisti Amare.

REPORT

Libya, June 2026 Monthly Forecast

Security Council Forecasts the 60-day Council briefing by SRSG Hanna Tetteh, covering UNSMIL’s Structured Dialogue, the May 8 Zawiya clashes, and implementation of the April 11 unified budget agreement.

REPORT

Libya Crisis Response Plan 2025–2026

IOM’s operational framework for Libya covering migration governance, migrant protection, missing migrants tracking, and humanitarian response for displaced Libyans, migrants in transit, and Sudanese refugees.

REPORT

Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, Spring 2026

World Bank assesses growth, fiscal, and inflation dynamics across Egypt, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia under the shadow of the Iran war and Hormuz closure, with MENA growth downgraded sharply.

REPORT

Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, Spring 2026

World Bank assesses growth, fiscal, and inflation dynamics across Egypt, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia under the shadow of the Iran war and Hormuz closure, with MENA growth downgraded sharply.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

Economic Science Association (ESA)

2026 African Meeting – June 15–17, 2026

Academic conference on economic research relevant to the African continent, including macroeconomic vulnerability and political-economy themes pertinent to Egypt, Morocco, the Sahel, and the post-Hormuz shock environment.

Chatham House

Navigating a changing global order: Ghana’s strategic priorities

Chatham House will host the President of the Republic of Ghana who will reflect on how Ghana is navigating an increasingly multipolar world and leveraging diversified partnerships to promote African agency, strengthen regional stability and contribute to a more balanced international system.

Chatham House

How might an African credit rating agency improve the continent’s financing conditions?

A joint panel discussion, held in collaboration with the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, will assess the potential impact of an African credit rating agency on reducing borrowing costs and lowering barriers to financing for African countries.

Chatham House

Geopolitical Leadership Intensive

June 16–17, 2026 — Two-day in-person flagship leadership program covering major geopolitical themes including MENA and African security.

Atlantic Council

2026 Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics

December 11, 2026 — The Transatlantic Forum on GeoEconomics is an annual flagship convening focused on issues at the nexus of economics, finance, foreign policy, and national security.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

WEBINAR

Navigating Jobs and Growth Amid Global Uncertainty: MENA Economic Update

World Bank MENA latest Middle East and North Africa economic update webinar documenting the Hormuz war’s impact on regional growth forecasts and labor market dynamics across North Africa.

WEBINAR

Humanitarian and Geopolitical Effects of the Iran War on the Horn of Africa

CSIS Africa Program panel examining how the U.S.-Iran conflict is reshaping security, food supply chains, and development finance across the Horn and Sahel.

WEBINAR

North Africa’s Response to Upheaval in the Sahel

Research event examining how Sahel instability impacts Morocco and Algeria’s security, diplomatic, and economic interests as the region approaches a potential inflection point.

PODCAST

Tiny Djibouti, and Its Prime Real Estate

This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Samson Abebe Bezabeh, Assistant Professor of African Studies at the University of Hong Kong, about Djibouti’s history, politics and efforts to navigate turmoil and shifting alliances in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.

PODCAST

100 Days Later: Can Trump Find an Off Ramp in the Gulf?

Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Naysan Rafati, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein and Michael Hanna about the shaky U.S.-Iran ceasefire and its implications for Gulf-Sudan war linkages and MENA regional security.

PODCAST

Will the EU’s New Migration Proposals Work?

Al Jazeera Examines EU migration framework implications for Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, and Sahel origin countries, assessing whether new proposals can reduce deaths on the Mediterranean while addressing root causes.

Job Opportunities

Career moves, fellowships, and calls for applications—all in one place.

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Internship Programme for Near East and North Africa (RNE) 
The Internship Programme aims to attract talented young women and men who are strongly motivated to share their new perspectives, innovative ideas, and latest academic experience in FAO’s domains. Apply by August 25th.

International Rescue Committee
Senior Manager, Emergency Cash and Basic Needs (Sudan)
Leads IRC’s emergency cash assistance and basic-needs programming through December 2026.

Mo Ibrahim Foundation
Researcher
The Mo Ibrahim Foundation is seeking a Researcher to join its small research team. The role supports the Foundation’s key initiatives, e.g., the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG) and the Ibrahim Forum Report, through data analysis, research production, and content dissemination. It is ideal for someone passionate about governance, policy, and development in Africa. Apply beginning mid-August 2026.

Policy Center for the New South
Junior Professional Program (Fellowship/Job)
Two-year structured professional development contract in Rabat for early-career analysts working on Morocco, Africa and Global South issues.

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