North Africa Regional Outlook: April 8, 2026

As the Iran war continues to drive energy shocks, fuel shortages and fiscal strain across North Africa, Europe races to secure alternative supply routes while Algeria’s evolving energy role and the shifting Sahel security dynamics add new layers of geopolitical complexity

By  Hafed Al Ghwell  •  Lana Bleik  •  Yusuf Can  •  Alexander Farley

As the Iran war continues to drive energy shocks, fuel shortages and fiscal strain across North Africa, Europe races to secure alternative supply routes while Algeria’s evolving energy role and the shifting Sahel security dynamics add new layers of geopolitical complexity—explore the latest developments shaping North Africa, the Mediterranean, and the Sahel.

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From the Stimson Center

Deeper dives from the Stimson Center.

A Conversation with H.E. Ambassador Taher El-Sonni: Libya’s Strategic Outlook

Join us on April 30, 2026 for A fireside chat with Libya’s UN Ambassador Taher El-Sonni on Libya’s political outlook, energy role, and regional security amid shifting Mediterranean and Sahel dynamics.

How Iran War Is Reshaping China’s Geo-Economic Cooperation with North Africa

Dr.Chuchu Zhang writes for Stimson Center on how China shifts energy strategy toward North Africa amid Hormuz disruption, deepening oil diversification and accelerating green cooperation with Algeria, Morocco, and Egypt.

The Maghreb Dilemma: Why the European Union Must Contain Escalating Tensions Between Algeria and Morocco

Djallel Kechib writes on why EU fragmentation risks fueling Algeria–Morocco tensions, and how a neutral, coordinated strategy could prevent escalation and protect regional stability.

A Conversation with H.E. Ambassador Duarte Lopes: Europe, North Africa, and the Mediterranean

Watch this public fireside chat with Ambassador Duarte Lopes on Europe’s engagement with North Africa and the Sahel, Mediterranean security dynamics, and Portugal’s role in EU–Africa partnerships.

A discussion on Libya’s economy: between missed opportunities and promising potential

Watch this discussion on Libya’s economy—exploring missed opportunities and emerging potential—featuring Jonathan Winer, former U.S. Special Envoy to Libya, in conversation with Hafed Al-Ghwell, Director of the North Africa Program at the Stimson Center. Co-sponsored by Libya Alahrar TV and the Stimson Center.

On Our Radar

The headlines shaping politics, security, and economics across North Africa and the Sahel.

Reuters

Libya Targets Europe Gas Export Boost by Early 2030

NOC Chairman Masoud Suleiman told the LNG2026 conference in Doha that Libya plans to increase gas production to nearly 1 billion cubic feet per day and begin shale gas drilling in H2 2026, with the goal of significantly boosting exports to Europe via the Greenstream pipeline to Italy by early 2030.

PBS

Flash Floods Caused by Storm Marta in Northern Morocco Kill at Least 4

Storm Marta struck northern Morocco on February 8, dumping up to 92mm of rain on some cities. The storm followed Storm Leonardo by just days, overfilling dams and forcing 150,000 evacuations, though officials noted the turbulent weather had secured at least a year’s drinking water supply.

Business Insider Africa

Africa’s Wealthiest King Leads $750 Million Investment to Boost Gold Production

Coverage of a major gold production investment initiative led by a senior African royal, likely King Mohammed VI of Morocco given context, aimed at expanding gold output.

Business Insider Africa

Tunisia Unveils Plans for Ambitious Overland Trade Corridor to Connect North Africa

Tunisia has announced plans for a major overland trade corridor aimed at improving connectivity across North Africa, potentially linking its ports to trans-Saharan trade networks and positioning Tunisia as a logistics hub.

The Conversation

China Is Helping Build Africa’s Cities, but Its Approach Sidelines Local Urban Planners and Residents

Analysis arguing that Chinese-financed urban infrastructure projects in Africa frequently bypass local planning capacity and community participation, producing developments that may not align with residents’ needs or local governance frameworks.

Business Insider Africa

Burkina Faso’s Largest Gold Mine to Drive West African Resources Record Output in 2026

Coverage of how Burkina Faso’s largest gold mine is projected to drive record mineral output for the West Africa resources sector in 2026, despite the country’s severe security constraints.

NV Ukraine

Egypt Will Stop Accepting Stolen Ukrainian Grain

Report that Egypt has agreed to cease importing Ukrainian grain that Russia has allegedly stolen from occupied Ukrainian territories, following diplomatic pressure; part of broader efforts to isolate Russia’s use of Black Sea and Mediterranean trade routes for sanctioned goods.

RFI

Ukrainian Soldiers Deployed in Western Libya

Exclusive RFI investigation revealing that more than 200 Ukrainian military officers and experts are deployed across three sites in western Libya with the agreement of the Tripoli government.

Presse Gauche

Africa Faces the Shocks of the War Against Iran

Analysis of Africa’s exposure to the economic shocks from the U.S.-Israel war on Iran, covering energy price surges, food security risks, shipping disruption, and the divergent impacts across oil exporters and importers.

Libyan Express

Libya Takes Part in Africom Flintlock 2026

Libya is co-hosting Exercise Flintlock 2026 for the first time, bringing together forces from both eastern and western Libya alongside over 30 African, European, and U.S. partners. AFRICOM frames the exercise as a contribution to Libyan military reunification efforts, enabled by a 2025 UN Security Council modification of the arms embargo.

Bloomberg

Egypt Signs Lifeline Million-Barrel Libyan Oil Deal to Defy Hormuz Blockade

Egypt has agreed to import at least one million barrels of Libyan crude per month via two shipments, replacing halted Kuwaiti supplies after Kuwait declared force majeure due to the Strait of Hormuz closure. The deal reflects deepening Egypt-Libya energy coordination as Cairo scrambles to stabilize its domestic fuel market.

OilPrice. com

The Oil Shocks Redrawing the Geopolitical Energy Map

Analysis of how the Iran war-induced oil shock is restructuring global energy flows and geopolitical alignments, including the accelerated pivot toward African suppliers, the reshuffling of Mediterranean pipeline politics, and new competitive dynamics between Gulf and non-Gulf producers.

Libyan Express

Dbeibeh Orders Immediate Termination of AGOCO-Arkenu Agreement

Libyan Prime Minister Dbeibeh instructed the NOC to terminate the development agreement between AGOCO and private oil firm Arkenu, citing public backlash, lack of transparency, and a UN panel finding that Arkenu is indirectly controlled by Saddam Haftar with revenues flowing to foreign accounts outside Libyan state channels.

NYT

Arab World Faces ‘Profound’ Economic Crisis From Iran War, U.N. Agency Warns

NYT analysis of the economic toll of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran across Arab countries, examining currency depreciation, energy import bills, tourism disruption, and the widening gap between Gulf energy exporters benefiting from high oil prices and import-dependent states like Egypt and Jordan bearing severe costs.

Bloomberg

Egypt Holds Rates After Iran War Hits Pound, Drives Fuel Surge

Egypt’s central bank kept its benchmark deposit rate at 19% on April 2, pausing its easing cycle as the Iran war sent energy prices soaring and pushed the Egyptian pound to a record low; all 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg unanimously predicted the hold.

Al Jazeera

Are Drones and AI Making It Harder to Fight Armed Groups in the Sahel?

Al Jazeera analysis examining how the proliferation of commercial and military drones, combined with AI-assisted surveillance, is changing the operational dynamics of counterinsurgency in the Sahel, complicating both state and non-state actors’ strategies.

Semafor

Trump Eyes Relations with Burkina, Mali, Niger Juntas

Report that the Trump administration is pursuing a deliberate pivot toward the Alliance of Sahel States, with senior State Department official Nick Checker visiting Burkina Faso and Niger following his February trip to Mali.

Reuters

Spain, Algeria in Talks to Increase Pipeline Gas Supply by Up to 10%

Spain and Algeria are in advanced talks to boost gas flows via the Medgaz pipeline by up to 10%, equivalent to around 1 billion cubic meters per year; Spanish Foreign Minister Albares announced a deal in principle following his March 26 visit to Algiers, with Algeria described as a reliable supplier amid the Iran war energy shock.

Reuters

U.S. Nears Deal to Resume Intelligence Operations in Mali

The Trump administration is close to an agreement allowing the U.S. to resume aircraft and drone overflights of Mali for intelligence gathering on al-Qaeda-linked jihadist groups.

Reuters

Morocco Stopped Fewer Illegal Migration Attempts in 2025 as Route Shifts

Morocco’s Interior Ministry reported that the country blocked 73,640 illegal migration attempts in 2025, a 6.4% decline from 2024, dismantled over 300 smuggling networks, and rescued 13,595 migrants at sea.

North Africa Post

Morocco Fuel Prices Show Mixed Response to Global Oil Rises, Regulator Says

Morocco’s energy regulator reports that domestic fuel prices have shown a mixed response to global oil price surges from the Iran war, reflecting partial government buffering through subsidy mechanisms and indexed pricing formulas.

North Africa Post

Libya Oil Output Hits Decade High as February Revenue Tops $2 Billion

Libya’s oil production reached its highest level in a decade in the period leading up to the Iran war disruptions, with February revenue topping $2 billion as international companies ramp up activity and the country benefits from elevated global prices.

North Africa Post

South Sudan Commits Own Funds to $5 Million Fiscal Reform Program in Shift Toward Self-Reliance

South Sudan has committed its own domestic resources to a $5 million fiscal reform program in partnership with UNDP, marking a shift away from full donor dependence toward government ownership of institutional reform.

North Africa Post

Strikes on Iran to Weaken Polisario, Hezbollah and Houthi Proxy Networks

North Africa Post analysis arguing that U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran’s missile and nuclear infrastructure will constrain Tehran’s ability to fund and arm its regional proxy network, including the Polisario Front; the piece cites bipartisan U.S. Congressional legislation to designate Polisario as a foreign terrorist organization.

NYT

More Than 70 Migrants Feared Dead After Boat Capsizes Off Libya

At least 70 migrants are feared dead after a boat carrying 105 people capsized off Libya on April 5 during rough seas; 32 survivors from Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Egypt were rescued by commercial ships and taken to Lampedusa.

North Africa Post

UN Security Council April Agenda Features Two Decisive Meetings on Sahara

The UN Security Council has scheduled two Western Sahara meetings for April: a closed briefing on April 24 and a strategic MINURSO review on April 30, with briefings from Special Representative Alexander Ivanko and Personal Envoy Staffan de Mistura

Al Jazeera

Burkina Faso Military Leader Traore Says “Forget Democracy”

In a state television interview on April 3, Burkina Faso’s junta leader Ibrahim Traore declared that “democracy isn’t for us” and told Burkinabes to forget about elections, three months after dissolving all political parties.

Financial Times

Russian crypto payment system expands into Africa

Promotional videos show office of cryptocurrency network A7 in Nigeria, while company also claims new branch in Zimbabwe.

Financial Times

Europe must prepare for ‘long-lasting’ energy shock, EU warns 

Energy commissioner says bloc is assessing fuel rationing and releasing more oil from strategic reserves.

Africanews

Cairo Goes Dark as Egypt Struggles to Cope with Fallout from Iran War

AFP report describing Cairo’s streets going quiet under a month-long government order shutting shops at 9pm on weekdays and 10pm on weekends to curb soaring energy costs.

Africanews

Report on the State of African Governance Paints Mixed Picture for Continent’s Political Outlook

Coverage of the Africa Political Outlook (APO) report “Forces of the Future,” released after a Brussels high-level forum, presenting a cautiously optimistic picture: positive trends in electoral governance and youth-driven demand for reform coexist with intensifying challenges from authoritarianism, coups, and shrinking civic space.

Reuters

Libya Fully Resumes Output at Sharara and El Feel Oil Fields

Libya’s NOC announced on March 30 that comprehensive maintenance on the crude export pipeline linking the Sharara fields to the Zawiya refinery tank farm has been completed, restoring full output at both Sharara and the adjacent El Feel field following a pipeline fire caused by a valve leak near Bir al-Marhan.

NC Register

Africa’s Longest Monorail Line Begins Operations as Egypt Opens 565km Cairo Route

Egypt inaugurated a 565km monorail network in and around Cairo, described as Africa’s longest, marking a major milestone in the country’s urban transport infrastructure expansion amid ongoing economic pressures.

Euronews

Can Algeria’s Gas Save the Old Continent from the Strait of Hormuz?

Euronews analysis finding that while Algerian gas pipeline flows rose 22% in January 2026 and are continuing to climb, Algeria can only offer an additional 4 to 8 billion cubic meters of supply this year, well short of the shortfall caused by Iran’s strike on Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility and the Strait of Hormuz disruption. 

Reuters

Morocco Has Diesel Stocks for 51 Days, Energy Ministry Says

Morocco’s energy ministry confirmed on April 2 that the country holds 51 days of diesel and 55 days of petrol stocks, with coal and gas supplies secured through end of June.

Reuters

Libya’s Haftar Acquires Combat Drones Despite UN Embargo

Reuters reporting based on commercial satellite imagery shows that Khalifa Haftar’s forces have acquired at least three combat drones at Al Khadim airbase east of Benghazi, identified by weapons experts as a Chinese-made Feilong-1 and two Turkish Bayraktar TB2s.

Reuters

Sudan Appoints Yassir al-Atta as Armed Forces Chief of Staff

Sudan named General Yassir al-Atta, a Sovereign Council member and longtime al-Burhan deputy, as chief of staff of the Armed Forces in the largest wartime command shakeup since the SAF-RSF war began.

Reuters

Putin Floats Idea of Grain and Energy Hub in Egypt

At an April 2 Kremlin meeting with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, Vladimir Putin proposed creating a Russian grain and energy hub in Egypt as Moscow seeks sanctions workarounds for its commodity exports.

Reuters

Burkina, Mali Troops Kill More Civilians Than Jihadists Do, Data Shows

Reuters report combining ACLED data with the HRW “None Can Run Away” findings, confirming that in 2025 alone, Burkinabe military and VDP forces killed 523 civilians versus 339 for JNIM and ISSP combined.

Reuters

Africa Faces Sharper Growth Slowdown if Middle East Conflict Drags, Report Warns

A report warned that Africa’s economic growth trajectory faces a significantly sharper slowdown if the U.S.-Israel war on Iran and resulting energy disruptions persist, with fuel import costs surging, tourism declining, and remittances from Gulf-based African workers under pressure.

APS Algeria

Algeria, Chad Explore Strategic Partnership in Hydrocarbons and Mining

Algeria and Chad have entered discussions around a strategic partnership covering hydrocarbons and mining cooperation, part of a broader Algerian push to deepen bilateral economic ties with Sahel neighbors.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts, think tanks, and research institutes.

COMMENTARY

How American Visa Bans and Migration Policies Are Shaping US-Africa Relations

A Brookings Institute analysis examining how restrictive U.S. visa and migration policies under the Trump administration are affecting diplomatic relationships with African governments, creating friction around student mobility, labor flows, and soft power engagement.

BOOK

Western Sahara Deadlock

Academic monograph on the Western Sahara conflict examining the political deadlock between Morocco, the Polisario Front, Algeria, and the UN, and assessing prospects for resolution.

COMMENTARY

Could Mahmoud Hamza Be Next Under Washington’s New Anti-Islamist Sanctions Drive?

Analysis examining whether Mahmoud Hamza, a figure linked to Islamist networks, could be targeted under the Trump administration’s expanding campaign against Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated organizations following the State Department’s Sudan Muslim Brotherhood designation.

REPORT

Revenue Statistics in Africa 2025

OECD annual report on tax revenue trends across African countries, tracking tax-to-GDP ratios, revenue composition, and fiscal performance across participating African states through 2024.

REPORT

Africa Overview: March 2026

ACLED’s monthly Africa conflict overview for March 2026, tracking political violence, demonstrations, and armed group activity across the continent, with particular focus on the Sahel, Sudan, and eastern DRC.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Russia’s Role in West and Southern Africa: Junta, Wagner, and Africa Corps

Carnegie research paper analyzing Russia’s evolving military and political footprint across West and southern Africa, examining the Wagner Group’s transition to Africa Corps and the implications of Russian engagement with junta-led governments in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and beyond.

BOOK

Routledge Handbook of Security Sector Reform in Africa

Academic reference handbook on security sector reform across Africa, covering institutional frameworks, donor engagement, civil-military relations, and case studies from West, East, and North African contexts.

COMMENTARY

Libya’s Fragile Equilibrium: Succession Risk and Energy Stability

Middle East Institute analysis published in the context of the Iran war-driven energy shock, arguing that Libya’s 1.2 to 1.3 million barrel per day output is structurally fragile and dependent on informal power arrangements.

COMMENTARY

The Islamic State Sahel Threat Is Transnational

Foreign Policy analysis arguing that Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) is no longer a purely regional insurgency but an emerging hub for external operations threatening Western interests and potentially Europe itself.

COMMENTARY

Iran War Reshaping Algeria’s Position

Foreign Policy’s Africa Brief examines how the Iran war is putting Algeria in a delicate balancing act: it is benefiting from soaring gas prices as Europe’s key supplier but must maintain its longstanding relationship with Iran.

COMMENTARY

War with Iran Could Accelerate Africa’s Oil Revival

The Economist argues that the Iran-induced energy shock is creating a significant opportunity for African oil and gas producers, with Libya, Algeria, and Nigeria positioned to benefit most from elevated prices and increased European demand for non-Gulf supply.

COMMENTARY

Les Grands Projets d’Infrastructure comme Outil de Developpement Local: Le Pipeline Niger-Benin

IPIS research on the Niger-Benin oil export pipeline, examining its impact on rural communities in northern Benin and the gap between infrastructure as a development tool in official rhetoric versus the experience of affected populations.

REPORT

Country Report

U.S. State Department reports on Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Yemen.

BOOK CHAPTER

Military Balance

Book chapter on regional military trends in the Middle East and North Africa.

COMMENTARY

Entry Points for Strengthening Democratic Development in Africa: Insights from Five Case Studies

A Brookings Institute analysis drawing lessons from five African country case studies on how external actors and domestic reformers can find entry points for advancing democratic development, with a focus on institutional resilience and governance reform pathways.

COMMENTARY

Iran War’s Reverberations in North Africa

Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) analysis examining how the U.S.-Israel war on Iran is reverberating across North Africa through energy price shocks, supply chain disruption, and the strategic recalibration of regional powers including Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, and Libya.

REPORT

“None Can Run Away”: War Crimes and Crimes Against Humanity in Burkina Faso by All Sides

HRW’s 316-page report released April 2, documenting at least 1,800 civilian killings across 57 incidents in Burkina Faso between January 2023 and August 2025.

REPORT

Sudan: Meeting Under Any Other Business

Security Council Report entry on a Sudan item raised under “any other business” in March 2026, tracking Council activity on Sudan outside formal scheduled meetings.

REPORT

Global Conflict Tracker: Power Struggle in Sudan

CFR’s ongoing Sudan conflict tracker page, providing current conflict status, background, and analysis of the SAF-RSF war including humanitarian impact and regional spillover.

Upcoming Events

Key briefings and conferences to watch.

The Age of Africa 2026

The Age of Africa Annual Symposium at the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy is a leading forum for critical analysis and strategic deliberation, dedicated to examining Africa’s central role in shaping the twenty-first century.

LandAc Annual Conference 2026

Announcement for the 2026 conference of the Land Governance research program, covering land rights, tenure security, and governance in developing regions.

Book Launch Conference : the Oxford Handbook of the Moroccan Economy

Launch event in April in Rabat for the Oxford Handbook of the Moroccan Economy, hosted by the Policy Center for the New South.

Global Democracy Under Pressure

A Brookings Institute event examining the state of democracy globally, including in Africa, amid rising authoritarianism, military coups, erosion of civic space, and the weakening of international democratic norms.

Tune In

Hear the latest insights from regional experts.

WEBINAR

A Conversation with H.E. Ambassador Sékou Berthe: Mali’s Strategic Outlook

The Stimson Center hosted a public fireside chat with Ambassador Sékou Berthe, Ambassador of Mali to the United States on Mali’s political transition, security challenges, regional diplomacy, and US–Mali relations.

WEBINAR

Libya’s Economic Future: A Conversation with Jonathan Winer

The Stimson Center hosted a discussion with Jonathan M. Winer, former U.S. Special Envoy for Libya, examining the structural challenges shaping Libya’s economic future and investment climate.

WEBINAR

The World Bank’s MENA Economic Update: Jobs and Women: Untapped Talent, Unrealized Growth

Watch Jesica Torres, Senior Economist at the office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank, speaking at the online seminar on “The World Bank’s MENA Economic Update: Jobs and Women: Untapped Talent, Unrealized Growth”.

PODCAST

Rebuilding Regional Order and Security in West Africa

Episode of a podcast examining frameworks for restoring regional security architecture in West Africa, likely addressing the post-ECOWAS fragmentation following AES withdrawal and the growing role of non-Western security actors.

PODCAST

Africa in Global Negotiations: UN and Emerging Multipolar Arenas

Policy Center podcast exploring how African countries are navigating multilateral negotiations at the UN and in emerging multipolar institutional settings, with a focus on African agency in a fragmenting international order.

VIDEO REPORT

Oil Shock Triggers Global Price Spikes as Iran War Drags On

Al Jazeera video segment on the ongoing global oil price surge driven by the Iran war, examining the Strait of Hormuz closure, supply disruptions, and what a protracted conflict could mean for energy markets and import-dependent economies in Africa and the Middle East.

WEBINAR

Sahel Seminars Landing page for the University of Florida’s Sahel Research Group seminar series, featuring academic presentations on security, development, and governance in the Sahel region

Job Opportunities

Career moves, fellowships, and calls for applications—all in one place.

Moroccan Association of Public Policies
Call for Papers
Announces the Call for Proposals for the 2nd International Conference on Governance and Public Action, to be held on April 14–15, 2026, at the Faculty of Law, Economics and Social Sciences Agdal, Mohammed V University of Rabat.

Values for Impact
Call for Papers
Under the theme Solidarity, Authenticity, and Prosperity, the conference will convene scholars, policymakers, regulators, and industry professionals to discuss how Islamic finance can promote solidarity-oriented and inclusive entrepreneurship, support authenticity through stronger real-economy linkages, and enable prosperity via trustworthy digital and AI-enabled financial services, while welcoming comparative perspectives on ethical and values-based finance.

ACEP Africa
About the Africa Climate Academy
Africa Climate Academy is an educational platform designed to foster a paradigm shift in the understanding and discourse surrounding climate change, energy transition, and its implications for Africa. This one-week programme targets policymakers, media professionals, civil society leaders, and academia, providing them with new perspectives on the risks associated with oil dependence and the abundant opportunities offered by sustainable energy alternatives.

The Hague Academy
Shiraka Scholarship
Information on the Shiraka scholarship program at The Hague Academy of International Law, providing funding for participants from Arab Spring countries to attend courses in international law.

United Nations Industrial Development
Market Researcher
The United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) is seeking experienced, qualified market research service providers. We are specifically looking for professionals who can design and conduct comprehensive market research tailored to Egypt’s unique market landscape.

Finca Ventures Prize Competition
Call for Applications
The 2026 call invites impact entrepreneurs to apply by April 10 for programs supporting innovative fintech solutions that expand financial inclusion for underserved populations.

St. Andrew’s Refugee Services
Deputy Director, Refugee Legal Aid Program  (Cairo, Egypt)
Under the supervision of the Director of Refugee Legal Aid Program, the Deputy Director supports management of program services implementation focused on legal advice and representation to urban refugees in matters of refugee status determination, protection, and resettlement.

Embassy of Ireland in Cairo
Regional Arts Coordinator
Seeking to recruit a Regional Arts & Cultural Coordinator to promote Ireland in The Middle East and North Africa.

International Medical Corps
MHPSS Manager
The Mental Health and Psychosocial Support Manager oversee International Medical Corps-Libya MHPSS programming and will work closely together with local partners for the implementation of MHPSS projects.

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