North Africa Weekly: August 19, 2025

How the EU can counter and undermine the Kremlin; El Sisi says Egypt won't compromise on share of Nile water; and more

Dear Friends & Colleagues,

From Algeria’s first import of advanced Russian fighter jets to Egypt’s billion-dollar manufacturing deal with China, shifting U.S. engagement in North Africa, and renewed energy partnerships across the region—explore the latest developments shaping the Maghreb’s political, economic, and security landscape

Hafed Al Ghwell
Senior Fellow and Director
North Africa Program

Read the North Africa Weekly on LinkedIn or join the conversation on X: @StimsonNAfrica

On Our Radar

The headlines you need to follow across North Africa.

ARAB NEWS | FROM THE DIRECTOR’S DESK

From preventing harm to the maximization of suffering: How Europe fumbled migration

Europe’s migration policy increasingly relies on outsourcing border control to Libya, Tunisia, and Morocco through $5.2 billion in funding, raising concerns about humanitarian standards, political motives, and the broader consequences of containment strategies.

THE DEFENSE POST

Algeria Poised to Receive Russia’s Su-34M Fighter Jets

Russia is producing advanced Su-34M jets for Algeria, marking the fighter’s first export and significantly boosting the North African nation’s strike capabilities.

THE NATIONAL NEWS

El Sisi Says Egypt Won’t Compromise on Share of Nile Water

Egypt’s Sisi warns Ethiopia against compromising its Nile water rights, calling the disputed dam an “existential threat” to Cairo.

MEES

Trump Envoy Tour Resets US Engagement Across North Africa

A North Africa diplomatic tour by US President Trump’s advisor signals renewed US interest in the region, with a shift towards a more pragmatic and transactional approach.

NEWSWEEK

African $60 Billion High-Speed Rail Project Takes Shape

Nigeria advances plans for a $60 billion, 2,500-mile high-speed rail network connecting major cities, submitting proof of funds for government review to potentially start construction soon.

L’ALGÉRIE AUJOURD’HUI

Sonatrach Signs Its Return to Libya

After a decade-long absence, Sonatrach has confirmed its return to Libya with the discovery of a commercial deposit in the Ghadames Basin. The relaunch comes amid growing energy cooperation between Algiers and Tripoli.

REUTERS

Cabinet: Egypt Signs $1 Billion Deal with China’s Sailun Group for Tyre Factory

Egypt signs $1 billion deal with China’s Sailun Group to build a 10-million-tyre annual production facility in the Suez Canal Economic Zone.

THE AFRICA REPORT

Africa‑US: How Trump’s Tariffs Have Already Upended Trade Flows

Trump’s tariffs are already diverting African exports away from the U.S., erasing AGOA-era gains, as Africa redirects toward Europe and China.

TECH AFRICA NEWS

Algeria Joins the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) Network

Algeria joins Pan-African Payment System, expanding the network to 18 nations to cut transaction costs and boost continental trade.

WAM MOROCCO

Morocco’s Aeronautics Exports Hit MAD 14.13 Billion in First Half of 2025

Morocco’s aerospace exports surge 8.8% to $1.41 billion in the first half of 2025 amid decade-long transformation, targeting doubled turnover by 2030.

AFRICAN ENERGY CHAMBER

Sonatrach–Sinopec Accord Signals Renewed Confidence in Algeria’s Upstream Potential

Algerian energy giant, Sonatrach, advances energy exploration with China’s Sinopec through new hydrocarbon agreement targeting key Algerian basins.

METTIS GLOBAL

Pakistan Invited to Invest in Algeria’s $40 Billion Energy Push

Algeria invites Pakistan to invest in its $40 billion energy expansion, offering gateway access to African markets amid growing trade ties.

AUTO WORLD JOURNAL

Kuntai to Invest $13.7M in Moroccan Auto Parts Plant

China’s Kuntai invests $13.7M in Moroccan auto parts plant targeting European markets using duty-free access and lower logistics costs.

BLOOMBERG

Egypt Pound at Strongest This Year as Foreign Investors Pile In

Egypt’s pound is at its highest level this year, as lower oil prices and an uptick in exports fuel optimism in the North African nation’s economy that offers one of the world’s biggest carry-trade returns.

AFRICA NEWS

Turkey, Italy, and Libya Hold Trilateral Talks on Migration and Security

Turkey, Italy, and Libya’s Tripoli government held Istanbul talks on curbing Mediterranean migration and stabilizing fractured Libya.

LE POINT

Algeria: President Macron’s Shattered Dream

Algeria maintains strategic independence while avoiding formal alliances and capitalizing on its energy resources and non-aligned stance in a fractured world.

Reports & Analysis on the Region

Deeper dives from experts across the region.

ARTICLE / COMMENTARY

North Africa Inc.: In the Grip of Regional Reshaping

Algeria asserts regional power through energy and military strength, Morocco expands economic influence across Africa while facing Western Sahara and Israel normalization backlash, and Tunisia’s political drift deepens its economic crisis and reliance on Algeria, collectively fracturing Maghreb unity.

ANALYSIS

Mali After the Arrests: Scenarios for Power, Instability, and Foreign Influence”

Mali’s junta arrested 20-50 soldiers, including senior generals, over an alleged plot to overthrow the government. This reveals deep military divisions, threatens counterinsurgency efforts, and increases the regime’s reliance on Russian security support.

POLICY ANALYSIS

Congressional Funding Increase Not Enough to Strengthen State Department

House panel approves $44.7B State budget with Middle East aid shifts, but defunded USAID and staff cuts threaten implementation.

COMMENTARY

Growing Ties Between Eastern Libya and Türkiye Increase Tensions in the Mediterranean

Libya’s eastern parliament reconsiders Turkey maritime pact, shifting regional alliances as Haftar uses migration flows to pressure the EU.

COMMENTARY

Anti-Migrant Sentiments in Central Europe Move Beyond Middle East Refugees

Emerging political hardlines in non-frontline states like Germany and Poland are now driving anti-migrant sentiments and deteriorating asylum rights, expanding hostility to Middle Eastern and Ukrainian refugees alike.

COMMENTARY

Why Alaa Abdel Fatah’s Terror Revocation Means Little Amid Egypt’s Brutal Repression

Egypt court removes activist’s terror tag as facade while new law codifies widespread repression and enforced disappearances.

REPORT

Unpowering Russia: How the EU Can Counter and Undermine the Kremlin

In the face of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and its broader subversive tactics and malign influence operations, the EU must actively ‘unpower’ Russia by dismantling its capacity to undermine European interests.

BOOK

Libya Since Qaddafi: Chaos and the Search for Peace

An inside account of conflict, collapse and innovative approaches to reconstruction in Libya’s challenging post-2011 landscape.

Stephanie T. Williams

Former U.N. Senior Official & U.S. Diplomat

Published by Hurst | April 2025 | 320 pages ISBN: 9781911723806

BOOK

Narratives of Sino-Middle Eastern Futures

Sino-Middle Eastern Futures probes Saudi, Syrian, and Chinese elite views to assess if China’s regional rise signals emerging hegemony or hits transactional limits, revealing contested visions for Beijing’s role.

Tune In

Hear directly from experts, regional voices, and thought leaders shaping North Africa’s future.

PODCAST EPISODE

The GERD Water Dispute and its Impact on Egypt’s Water Security

Egypt’s water security fears clash with Ethiopia’s Nile dam ambitions, fueling regional tensions over the river’s future.

AVAILABLE ON SPOTIFY & APPLE PODCASTS

VIDEO

Coastal Erosion Accelerates in Tunisia, Threatening Livelihoods

Along Tunisia’s southern Mediterranean coast, rising seas and coastal erosion are threatening entire communities.

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