ORANJESTAD — The Stimson Center, a Washington, D.C.-based research institution, together with strategic CORVI partners and the National Climate Resilience Council, released the results of their Climate and Ocean Risk Vulnerability Initiative (CORVI) assessment of Aruba this week.
This island-wide CORVI assessment unpacks the multidimensional and compounding impacts of climate change in Aruba. Under business-as-usual greenhouse gas emission scenarios, Aruba faces a dramatic climate transformation in the coming decades. Rising sea levels, more intense and longer-lasting heat and drought, and coastal erosion threaten virtually all aspects of life in Aruba, from housing and healthcare to tourism, financial services, utilities, and critical infrastructure.
Drawing on both quantitative and qualitative data, the CORVI analysis identifies three priority clusters of risk for Aruba:
- Declining Ecosystem Health
- Changing Demographic Patterns
- Vulnerabilities of a Tourism-Dependent Economy
These interconnected risks reveal how the health and resilience of Aruba’s people, environment, and tourism-driven economy are deeply intertwined. The findings highlight urgent challenges such as biodiversity loss, expanding urbanization, infrastructure strain, and the pressures of unregulated tourism growth — all of which compound the island’s vulnerability to climate change. The full report can be found here: “CORVI: Measuring Multidimensional Climate Risks in Aruba“
Dr. Ryan R. Peterson, chairman of Aruba’s National Climate Resilience Council, highlighted the comprehensive findings.
“These findings are a reminder of the multiple vulnerabilities we face, from the direct risks to our coastal communities to the cascading effects on our economy and the most vulnerable in our community,” said Peterson. “It confirms what many of us already know: the degradation of our precious coral reefs, the increasing intensity of extreme heat, and the delicate balance of an ecosystem that sustains our way of life. The report’s conclusions are a stern reminder that our prosperity is not separate from the health of our society and environment; they are inextricably linked.”
CORVI was created to help policymakers understand the climate-related risks facing specific geographies and potential avenues for building resilience. Drawing on 94 environmental, social, and economic risk indicators, the CORVI analysis identifies both urgent vulnerabilities and opportunities to strengthen resilience. Investing in ecosystem restoration, advancing a community-based and climate-resilient spatial development, as well as bolstering economic resilience, can position Aruba as a regional leader in climate-ready governance.
According to the Minister of Finance, Economic Affairs, and Primary Sector, Mr. Geoffrey Wever, “This report confirms that climate change is not a distant threat. It is an immediate and escalating financial and economic risk. The rising sea levels, coastal erosion, and extreme heat events detailed in this assessment are direct threats to our national infrastructure, our financial stability, and the very natural assets upon which our prosperity is built. Therefore, strengthening our climate resilience is an economic imperative. It is the foundation of our future financial stability and our capacity for sustainable and inclusive development.”
This is the sixteenth CORVI assessment and follows studies in the Caribbean Basin in Basseterre, St. Kitts; Dominica; Southern and Western Urban Corridor, Barbados; Kingston, Jamaica; Castries, Saint Lucia; and Belize City, Belize. Each of these individual assessments revealed unique and specific risks to the coastal city or island nation. At the same time, a pattern of consistent threats emerges across at-risk communities in the Caribbean. These findings tell a compelling story about the shared need for integrated planning, sustainable blue economies, and smart infrastructure development.
Carolyn Gruber, the Deputy Director for the Stimson Center’s Environmental Security Program, emphasized the importance of the findings as a foundation for next steps.
“Combining local insights with rigorous analysis, the CORVI results can support Aruba’s efforts to meet the shifting realities of climate change,” said Gruber. “With CORVI, the National Climate Resilience Council, key private sector partners, and the Government of Aruba gain data-driven, place-based recommendations to guide the implementation of their forthcoming National Climate Adaptation Plan.”
Learn more about CORVI: www.stimson.org/project/corvi
The Stimson Center promotes international security, shared prosperity and justice through applied research and independent analysis, deep engagement, and policy innovation. Through cross-sectoral, solutions-driven analysis, and inclusive dialogue, the Stimson Center’s Environmental Security Program works to illuminate emerging risks and advance pragmatic strategies to build resilience for communities and countries.
More at www.stimson.org.