Dear Friends & Colleagues,
From worsening tensions between Egypt and Ethiopia concerning the Nile to Mali suing Algeria in the ICJ and to billions of investments flowing into North African economies —explore the latest developments shaping North Africa’s political, economic, and security landscape.
Hafed Al Ghwell
Senior Fellow and Director
North Africa Program
Read the North Africa Weekly on LinkedIn or join the conversation on X: @StimsonNAfrica
On Our Radar
The headlines you need to follow across North Africa.
THE GUARDIAN
Ethiopia Inaugurates Africa’s Largest Hydroelectric Dam as Egypt Rift Deepens
Ethiopia has inaugurated Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam on the Nile. While Addis Ababa touts it for regional electrification, Egypt views the project as a major threat to its essential water supply, deepening a long-standing diplomatic dispute.
THE AFRICAN REPORT
Why Ethiopia is Uneasy about Egypt Sending Troops to Somalia, as Dam Feud Flares
Ethiopia has voiced concern over plans for Egyptian troops to deploy in Somalia, seeing it as part of growing pressure due to the Nile dam conflict. Addis fears that Cairo’s military expansion in neighboring Somalia could shift regional dynamics in its dispute over water rights.
AL-MONITOR
Beyond War Games: Egypt-Saudi Naval Deal Targets Red Sea, Mediterranean Threats
Egypt and Saudi Arabia have signed a naval protocol and will conduct joint drills to formalize military coordination amid rising threats in the Red Sea and Mediterranean. The agreement aims to secure navigation routes, especially against Houthi attacks, and lessen reliance on external security coalitions.
BLOOMBERG
A Looming End to $1-a-Month Home Rentals Stokes Worries in Egypt
Egypt is ending decades-old rent caps affecting millions of households, phasing out old contracts within seven years and allowing steep rent hikes. Critics warn the reform, tied to IMF-backed economic changes, risks evictions and price shocks despite government pledges to expand low-cost housing.
OIL PRICE
Middle East Unrest Clouds Future of $35B Israel-Egypt Gas Deal
Egypt’s bid to be a regional gas hub has unraveled as production falls and demand rises, forcing reliance on Israeli imports. A $35 billion supply deal through 2040 now faces uncertainty amid Middle East tensions, threatening Cairo with higher costs if Israeli pipeline flows are disrupted.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Imprisoned Egyptian Activist Alaa Abd El-Fattah on List for Presidential Pardon and Release
Egypt’s presidency said it is reviewing a petition to pardon jailed activist Alaa Abd el-Fattah, a dual British-Egyptian national imprisoned since 2019 for spreading false news. A presidential pardon committee member indicated he could be released within days following the removal of his name from a terrorism list.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Mali Files ICJ Case Against Algeria Over the Destruction of a Military Reconnaissance Drone
Mali has filed a case at the International Court of Justice accusing Algeria of deliberately destroying a Malian military drone near the border town of Tinzaouaten. Bamako says the March 31 incident violated international law and aimed to disrupt its operations against armed rebels.
NEW YORK TIMES
Oil Producers Announce New Increase in Output
OPEC+ members, including Algeria, will raise oil output by 137,000 barrels a day starting in October, continuing the gradual rollback of earlier cuts. The move follows steady price stability and signals ongoing efforts by producers to unwind supply limits set in 2023.
LE MONDE
In Tunisia, the Government is Embarrassed by the Attack on the pro-Gaza Flotilla
Tunisian authorities denied reports that a drone targeted a pro-Palestinian flotilla vessel anchored off Sidi Bou Saïd, calling it a minor fire incident. Flotilla organizers insist the boat was struck by explosives, reviving memories of past Israeli operations on Tunisian soil and highlighting President Kaïs Saïed’s muted response.
AL-MONITOR
World’s Largest Illegal Sports Streaming Site Shut Down After Egypt Arrests
Egyptian authorities joined an international coalition in shutting down Streameast, the world’s largest illegal live-sports streaming operation with over 1.6 billion visits across 80 domains. Two men were arrested, digital devices seized, and revenue channels, including UAE shell companies and crypto, identified.
THE AFRICA REPORT
U.S–Africa Week Ahead: Defense Bill, AGOA Lobbying and Trump Envoys Move Forward
U.S. Congress is expected to vote on the National Defense Authorization Act this week, which includes new provisions affecting AFRICOM oversight, AGOA renewal, and envoy appointments. African nations are intensifying lobbying efforts ahead of AGOA’s September expiration while evaluating potential changes in trade relations under tighter U.S. policy controls.
TIME MAGAZINE
Africa’s Leaders Call for a United Push to Create the Next ‘Climate Economy’
At ACS2 in Addis Ababa, Africa’s leaders pushed for climate finance reform and embraced the ambition to transition from aid-recipient to green innovation hub. They launched the Africa Climate Innovation Compact aimed at delivering 1,000 Africa-designed climate solutions by 2030.
DEFENCE WEB
War Zones and Geneva Rules: ICRC’s Youssef on Africa’s Frontlines
Africa is facing a widespread humanitarian crisis across more than 20 conflict zones, with Sudan among the hardest hit — millions displaced, and civilian protections widely violated. The ICRC emphasizes neutrality, saying it enables access and protection in areas where political and armed actors clash.
AFRICAN ENERGY
Tunisian Oil and Gas Output Falls to New Lows, Further Boosting Algeria’s Position
With IOCs generally unconvinced about Tunisia’s attractions for upstream investment, domestic oil and gas production has continued to slump, while energy imports are rising, with gas supplies from Algeria in pole position.
AL-MONITOR
Saudi Arabia, UAE Firms Sign $18.5 Billion Tourism Megaproject for Egypt
Egypt has struck an $18.5 billion deal with Saudi and Emirati partners to build “Marassi Red Sea,” a massive tourism development on its Red Sea coast. The project spans 10 million square meters and promises hotels, marinas and infrastructure aimed at boosting investment under Egypt’s Vision 2030.
ENERGY CAPITAL POWER
Libya Advances $8 Billion Offshore Gas Development as Sector Gains Momentum
Libya is pushing ahead with its $8 billion “Structures A&E” offshore gas project, led by Mellitah Oil & Gas, with production targeted by 2027. Once operational, it should produce up to 750 million cubic feet per day, strengthening both domestic energy supply and export capacity.
THE AFRICA REPORT
Morocco Banks on U.S. Investors for $26-Billion Gas Pipeline to Nigeria
Morocco is courting U.S. investment for the $26 billion Africa Atlantic Gas Pipeline, planned to connect Nigerian gas reserves to North African and European markets. The project, backed by ECOWAS, is entering its tendering phase in 2025.
ENERGY CAPITAL POWER
Egypt to Double Power Sector Investments to EGP 136.3 Billion in 2025/26
Egypt will double its power sector investment to EGP 136.3 billion in 2025-26, funding upgrades across generation, transmission and renewables. The surge aims to meet rising electricity demand and reduce energy imports.
ENERGY CAPITAL POWER
Libya Strengthens Global Footprint with Rising Crude Exports to Asia, Europe
Libya’s oil exports to Asia and Europe are climbing as state refiners shift away from Russian crude. Its production rose to around 1.4 million barrels per day in August, and the National Oil Corporation aims for 2 million bpd by year-end.
OFFSHORE ENERGY
Hynfra Signs Agreement For $1.5 Billion Green Ammonia Project in Mauritania
Mauritania has signed a $1.5 billion framework agreement with Poland’s Hynfra to build a green ammonia plant near Nouakchott, targeting 100,000 tons annually from 2030. The project includes solar/wind power, electrolyzers, desalination, storage, and export infrastructure via Port de l’Amitié.
Reports & Analysis on the Region
Deeper dives from experts across the region.
COMMENTARY
Haftar’s Long Game: Dynastic Power and Diplomatic Leverage in Libya
General Khalifa Haftar has begun installing his sons in senior military and political roles in eastern Libya, while deepening diplomatic ties—particularly with Turkey—to build long-term family control. These moves suggest he’s preparing for lasting influence even as UN-led efforts for national elections and unity gather pace.
BRIEFING PAPER
Drivers of Extremist Sympathies: Security, Ideology, and Firearms in Lebanon and Tunisia
A 2023 survey in Tunisia found that 20% of adults expressed some sympathy for violent extremist groups, with insecurity, Salafist views, and religious intolerance as key drivers. While firearm ownership is low, respondents who viewed guns as essential in their community were 57% more likely to support extremist causes.
COMMENTARY
Empowering Local Actors to Ensure Climate Resilience in Libya
Libya’s political turmoil and weak central governance have left the country ill-equipped to confront severe climate threats, from worsening water scarcity to deadly storms like 2023’s Daniel. Analysts say empowering local governments, civil groups and businesses offers the most practical path to secure climate funding and build adaptation measures.
REPORT
OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2025 Issue 1: Morocco
Morocco’s economy is set to grow 3.8% in 2025 and 2026, fueled by a rebound in agriculture and robust tourism. Unemployment remains high, particularly for youth, despite the positive growth outlook and stabilizing inflation.
RESEARCH PAPER
Unravelling Sudan’s War: Actors and Future Trajectories
Sudan’s war pits the national army against the paramilitary RSF, deepening a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. Political fragmentation and resilient grassroots movements shape the conflict’s trajectory amid stalled peace efforts.
REPORT
Algeria | Events of 2024
Algerian authorities clamped down on dissent, prosecuting journalists, activists, and artists under broad anti-terrorism laws. Freedoms of expression, assembly, and the press have also been curtailed. The government also continued its practice of collectively expelling migrants to desert border regions.
REPORT
Libya | Events of 2024
Libya remains fractured between rival governments, with armed groups operating with impunity. Civilians face severe repression, and migrants endure arbitrary detention and abuse. Recovery from the 2023 floods has been slow and inadequate for most survivors.
REPORT
Libya: 2025 Article IV Consultation Press Release; and Staff Report
Libya’s IMF review warns that unchecked government spending and political division threaten fiscal stability despite a projected oil-driven GDP rebound to 16% in 2025. The report urges a unified budget, subsidy and wage reforms, and stronger banking and exchange-rate policies to curb deficits and reduce reliance on oil revenues.
REPORT
2024 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Libya
Libya’s 2024 human rights review details widespread abuses by government-aligned forces and armed groups, including arbitrary killings, torture, disappearances, and suppression of press freedom. Migrants and refugees face severe mistreatment in detention, while women and activists endure harassment and threats with little accountability from authorities.
REPORT
2024 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices: Mauritania
ANALYSIS
Africa is Expanding Its Digital Public Infrastructure for Its Digital Future
Africa’s digital infrastructure is expanding rapidly, driven by high demand and national strategies in Morocco, Nigeria, and Kenya. These nations are developing regional tech hubs through significant private investment and government policy, though internet access still lags the continent’s growing needs.
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