This resource was made possible by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author.
Dear Friend,
This newsletter has come on the tail of “Nuke Week” in D.C. – with representatives of governments, international organizations, industry, and civil society convening for the CSIS PONI Fall Conference, the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference, and the IAEA’s Third Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Power.
This convening of these nuclear minds could not have come at a timelier moment. As tensions in Ukraine and the international stage rise, exacerbated by Russian unfounded allegations of Ukrainian preparations to use a dirty bomb, and the prospects for more countries building nuclear power programs have created unprecedented challenges for the nuclear community. These discussions have not been limited to Washington (or Vienna) this month. Ukraine and the status of the international nuclear nonproliferation architecture given the changing economic and political environment, for example, played a leading role in the Berlin meeting of the G7 Global Partnership’s nuclear and radiological working group, a key body for coordinating assistance activities. Discussing these new security concerns and the changing nuclear ecosystem is critical for the survival of the field – and the sustainability of a nuclear future, including its role in the response to climate change. I look forward to seeing the impacts of these discussions in the coming days, months, and years.
Hope, Endurance, and Courage,
Richard Cupitt
International Nuclear Security Forum
Join the conversation on Twitter: @INS_Forum
Announcements
- The INSF also welcomes its newest member organization:
- Odessa Center for Nonproliferation
- The latest publication in the INSF Nuclear Security Policy Menu series, “Nuclear Security During Armed Conflict” by Ali Alkis is now available. Read the piece.
- The INSF call for proposals for the Nuclear Security Policy Menu series is still open. Find application details here.
Nuclear Security News
Impact: The Invasion of Ukraine
- Update 110 – IAEA Director General Statement on Situation in Ukraine: “After receiving information about the detention of Ihor Murashov, Director General of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been in contact with the relevant authorities and has been informed that Mr. Murashov is in temporary detention, Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said today.”
- Europe’s largest nuclear plant loses remaining power source due to shelling, U.N. says: “Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, the biggest in Europe, has lost its last remaining external power source as a result of renewed shelling and is now relying on emergency diesel generators, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Saturday…The International Atomic Energy Agency said that the plant’s link to a 750-kilovolt line was cut at around 1 a.m. Saturday. It cited official information from Ukraine as well as reports from IAEA experts at the site, which is held by Russian forces…All six reactors at the plant are shut down but they still require electricity for cooling and other safety functions. Plant engineers have begun work to repair the damaged power line and the plant’s generators — not all of which are currently being used — each have sufficient fuel for at least 10 days, the IAEA said.”
- IAEA’s Grossi Meets Russia’s Putin to Help Prevent Nuclear Accident in Ukraine, Calls for ZNPP Safety and Security Protection Zone: “Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi today met with Russian President Vladimir Putin as part of the IAEA’s efforts to prevent a nuclear accident during the current military conflict in Ukraine, stressing the urgent need to establish a safety and security protection zone around the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP)…In recent weeks, Director General Grossi has been engaging in intense consultations with both Ukraine and the Russian Federation to agree and implement such a protection zone as soon as possible, in view of shelling at or near Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in recent weeks and months.”
- RF Troops by Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant Reportedly Looting, Abandoning Occupied Homes: “Russian Federation (RF) troops quartered in homes and apartments adjacent to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant are departing the area in vehicles loaded with loot, a Thursday, Oct. 20 statement by Ukraine’s national atomic energy agency Enerhoatom has said. Images and social media accounts from the city of Enerhodar, which is adjacent to the six-reactor plant, showed Russian army trucks and private vehicles with Ukrainian license plates carrying televisions, refrigerators and carpets. The local Skifskiy Hotel, normally a residence for transient workers at the plant, was “completely looted”, the statement added Enerhodar social media chat groups said the RF soldiers were withdrawing as part of a Kremlin plan to consolidate forces in the southern sector of the Ukraine war.”
- Zelenskyy says Russia wired a hydroelectric dam to explode and flood 80 towns in region it may have to abandon: “Russia has mined a major Ukrainian hydroelectric dam and is ready to flood dozens of towns in an attack it would blame on Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed on Thursday…Zelenskyy made the remarks in a meeting with the European Council on Thursday evening local time, saying that “Russia is deliberately creating the grounds for a large-scale disaster in the south of Ukraine.” Zelenskyy said he has received information that mines were placed at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. Insider was unable to immediately verify the claim.”
International Architecture
- Russia Says U.S. Blocked its Participation in Nuclear Conference: “The Russian state nuclear corporation Rosatom said on Friday that the United States had effectively blocked Russia’s participation in a nuclear energy conference in Washington by failing to issue entry visas. Relations between the United States and Russia have sunk to their lowest level since the depths of the Cold War after Moscow sent its armed forces troops into Ukraine in February. Rosatom and Russia’s industrial safety watchdog, Rostekhnadzor, planned to attend the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) ministerial conference in Washington on Oct. 26-28 but have yet to receive visas, Rosatom said in a statement…‘[w]e consider this to be a show of disrespect on part of the United States towards the IAEA,’ it added.”
- G7 NPDG Statement in support of the IAEA´s efforts to promote Nuclear Safety and Security at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine: “We, the G7 Nonproliferation Directors General of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States of America, and of the High Representative of the European Union remain strongly concerned by the serious threats that Russia’s seizure and militarization of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) pose to the safety and security of this nuclear facility, its staff, and the region…We condemn Russia’s repeated kidnapping of Ukrainian ZNPP leadership and staff and denounce the application of other forms of pressure on remaining Ukrainian personnel. These actions further impair the nuclear safety and security of the ZNPP by preventing key personnel from executing their indispensable functions. We strongly reject these reckless, cruel, and dangerous acts and demand the immediate release of those detained.”
Weapons, Materials, and Facilities
- 2022 National Defense Strategy, Nuclear Posture Review: “The 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) details the [U.S. Department of Defense’s] path forward into that decisive decade—from helping to protect the American people, to promoting global security, to seizing new strategic opportunities, and to realizing and defending our democratic values. For the first time, the Department conducted its strategic reviews—the NDS, the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and Missile Defense Review (MDR)—in an integrated way, ensuring tight linkages between our strategy and our resources.”
- Decades of Nuclear Reactor Strikes Predate Ukraine Power Plant Crisis: “Russia has put Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in the cross hairs of combat, but it was not the first nation to attack an operational reactor in war. That was the United States three decades ago. The American strike on an Iraqi site is part of a little-known history in which foreign attackers have fired more than a dozen times on nuclear plants not only in Iraq but Iran, Israel and Syria. Their attacks sought to end atomic bomb programs.”
- The head of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant has been released from detention, the U.N. nuclear agency says: “The director general of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, whose detention by Russia stoked concerns about the security of Europe’s largest nuclear plant, has been released, the International Atomic Energy Agency said on Monday. Ihor Murashov, who is responsible for nuclear and radiation safety at the facility, was abducted in his car at around 4 p.m. on Friday on the road leading to the plant, according to Energoatom, the Ukrainian national energy company. The company said he had been blindfolded and taken to an unknown location. It appealed to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.’s nuclear agency, to help secure Mr. Murashov’s release.”
- IAEA head seeks release of Ukrainian nuclear plant head: “The head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog called for the release of the director-general of Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, saying his detention posed a threat to safety and security… “IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi expressed the hope that Mr. Murashov will return to his family safely and promptly and will be able to resume his important functions at the plant,” the agency tweeted late on Saturday. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Murashov was abducted by Russia and called it an act of terror. “This is another instance of clear act of Russian terror, for which the terrorist state must bear an ever-increasing punishment,” Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.”
- Zaporizhzhia on the brink: How deteriorating conditions at the nuclear power plant could lead to disaster: “Soon after it started its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Russian military occupied the southern part of the Zaporizhzhia region. The occupied area includes the territory of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), the largest in Europe. During the summer, the area around the Zaporizhzhia NPP was hit multiple times by missiles and artillery. These affected all high-voltage electric power lines that connect the facility to the grid, so the plant was forced to work for some time in island mode, using the minimal power produced by one of the reactors to maintain functions essential to the plant’s safety.”
Threats
- Western powers warn Russia could use ‘dirty bomb’ claim to escalate war: “Officials in Kyiv and several Western countries rejected claims made without evidence by the Kremlin that Ukraine is planning to use a “dirty bomb” — an explosive weapon designed to scatter radioactive material — on its own territory, characterizing them as an attempt by Russia to create a pretext for escalating the conflict…“We all reject Russia’s transparently false allegations that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb on its own territory,” foreign ministers from the United States, France and the United Kingdom said in a Sunday joint statement, after Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made the unfounded claim in conversations with the countries’ defense ministers.”
- Dirty bombs sow fear and panic, cause few deaths: “Dirty bombs have long been feared as a potential weapon of terrorists because their main objective is to sow panic, confusion and anxiety by hurling radioactive dust and smoke into the atmosphere. The Kremlin alleges that Ukraine is preparing to detonate a dirty bomb in order to blame it on Russia and force an escalation to the war that has entered its ninth month. Western countries have dismissed that claim as “transparently false.” Although no dirty bomb attack has ever been recorded, two failed attempts to detonate such a device were reported in the southern Russian province of Chechnya more than two decades ago.”
- NATO Allies Warn Russia Against ‘Dirty Bomb’ Plot in Ukraine: “Senior U.S. officials said Monday they saw no evidence Russia was preparing to deploy a so-called dirty bomb in Ukraine, but threatened consequences if Russia did so after Moscow falsely accused Kyiv of preparing one. The remarks came a day after an unusual round of telephone calls between Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his U.S., French, U.K. and Turkish counterparts. Mr. Shoigu told them that the war in Ukraine was moving toward a more dangerous phase and that Kyiv might soon deploy a dirty bomb, which combines conventional explosives with radioactive materials such as cesium or cobalt and would contaminate territory without immediately killing a large number of people.”
- How to Keep the Ukraine Conflict From Going Nuclear: “Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats have been menacing and apocalyptic. In March 2018, he told an interviewer that he would not start a nuclear war, but if “aggressors” attacked Russia, “vengeance is inevitable…. We will go to heaven as martyrs. They will just drop dead.” When he illegally annexed parts of Ukraine on Sept. 21, Mr. Putin escalated the threat, announcing that if “the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will without doubt use all available means to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff.” And then he led the crowd in chanting, ‘Russia, Russia, Russia.’”
- How Can We Prevent Nuclear War in Ukraine: “The chance that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine may be low, but it is rising. And the consequences would be devastating. That makes the current situation extremely dangerous. In fact, this may be the closest we’ve been to the use of nuclear weapons since 1962. As President Joe Biden said earlier this month, for the “first time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use [of a] nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going.” If you are not worried, you are not paying attention.”
Security Culture
- Former Defense Secretary Ash Carter dead at 68: “Former Defense Secretary Ashton Carter died Monday evening in Boston of a sudden cardiac event. He was 68. “It is with deep and profound sadness that the family of former Secretary of Defense Ashton B. Carter shares that Secretary Carter passed away Monday evening in Boston after a sudden cardiac event at the age of 68,” Carter’s family said in a statement Tuesday… Carter served as secretary of Defense under President Barack Obama from February 2015 to January 2017. He was also a public policy professor who directed the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School up until his death. Carter “devoted his professional life to the national security of the United States and teaching students about international affairs,” his family said in the statement.”
- Hacker’s Breach Iran’s Atomic Energy Agency as Protests Persists: “Iran’s atomic energy agency alleged on Sunday that hackers acting on behalf of an unidentified foreign country broke into a subsidiary’s network and had free access to its email system…An anonymous hacking group claimed responsibility for the attack on Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, demanding Tehran release political prisoners arrested in the recent nationwide protests. The group said it leaked 50 gigabytes of internal emails, contracts and construction plans related to Iran’s Russian-backed nuclear power plant in Bushehr and shared the files on its Telegram channel. It was unclear whether the breached system contained classified material.”
Member Organization Announcements and Updates
Global Nuclear Security Partners (GNSP)
- On October 23-24, 2022 the GNSP, in conjunction with the University of Bristol and Sellafield, ran a nuclear threat detection training exercise. The training focused on a faux scenario involving a facility that handles radioactive sources returned to government control after a period of occupation by an opposing military force. Designed to replicate the kind of scenario that GNSP’s Project Atlas is set to address in Ukraine, the activity took place within a purpose-designed set to ensure realism and provoke discussion. Members from the UK MOD, AWE, NNL and the European Union were in attendance, amongst others.
The Stimson Center
- Stimson’s South Asia Program hosted an event, “New Challenges to Strategic Stability in the China-India-Pakistan Nuclear Competition,” on October 28. The event featured Sylvia Mishra, Beenish Pervaiz, Tong Zhao, and Elizabeth Threlkeld.
- Christina McAllister and Sneha Nair attended the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference in Washington, D.C. from October 27-28.
- Rick Cupitt, Christina McAllister, and Sneha Nair attended the G7 Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction meeting in Berlin, Germany from October 5-7 to present on radiological security project, RadSecLEXIS, and the ongoing CBRN security work of the Stimson Center.
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
- William Alberque, the Director of Strategy, Technology, and Arms Control, published an analysis on October 10, 2022, “Russia is Unlikely to Use Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine.” Read here.
- Timothy Wright, Research Analyst and Programme Administrator for Defence and Military Analysis, wrote a piece titled, “Burevestnik and The Future of Arms Control” on September 29, 2022. Learn more here.
James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS)
- Jeffrey Lewis presented on open-source research methodologies at the Young Professionals Track of the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference and the panel session “Resolution Through Resolution? Open-Source Information and Nuclear Policy.”
King’s College London, Centre for Science and Security Studies (CSSS)
- CSSS published Exploring nuclear and radiological security in South Asia – A case study handbook. Read the piece.
Managing the Atom
- The Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center hosted a side event on the margins of the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Conference, “Studying Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century: Approaches, Theories, and Defining Questions.” The event held on October 27 featured Matt Bunn (opening remarks), Rebecca Gibbons, Ulrich Kühn, Scott Sagan, Manpreet Sethi, and Francesca Giovannini.
- Mariana Budjeryn spoke on the panel, “Poles Apart: Deterrence or Disarmament after the Russo-Ukrainian War?” at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on October 27.
Nuclear Threat Initiative
- Ross Matzkin-Bridger wrote a piece for NTI’s Atomic Pulse, “There is a bright future for nuclear power, but not with the most dangerous of materials,” arguing that material security and material minimization must be considered as core concerns as more countries explore nuclear power options. Read the blog post.
Odessa Center for Nonproliferation (OdCNP)
- The OdCNP introduced a new program called “OdCNP Nuclear Security Monthly.” Check out the report.
- On October 10-14, 2022, the OdCNP organized the XIIth OdCNP International Summer School “Responding to New Nuclear Realities: Concepts and Actions” in Bodrum, Turkiye.
- On September 27, 2022, Ali Alkis wrote a piece titled, “Seven Indispensable Pillars of Nuclear Safety and Security,” in the Indian Strategic Studies Forum. Read here.
University of Melbourne
- On October 5, 2022, Trevor Findlay gave a seminar on his book, Transforming Safeguards Culture: The IAEA, Iraq and the Future of Nonproliferation, for the Project on Managing the Atom at Harvard University. Check it out.
- September 29, 2022, Trevor Findlay presented a paper on “Small Modular Reactors: Implications for Safety, Security and Safeguards” to a meeting of the Nuclear Energy Experts Group of the Council on Security and Cooperation in Asia-Pacific (CSCAP) in San Francisco.
Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (VCDNP)
- On October 27, 2022, Hanna Notte presented on the panel, “Arms Control in Europe After the Russo-Ukrainian War, Really?” at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference.
- On October 24, 2022, Noah Mayhew, Research Associate at VCDNP, wrote a piece titled “Six Questions on Naval Propulsion and IAEA Safeguards” for the second edition of the “Governing the Atom Brief Series.” The piece focuses on the compatibility of naval nuclear propulsion with key elements of the non-proliferation regime. Read here.
- On October 10, 2022, the VCDNP and the International Affairs Institute (IAI) organized a joint at the University of Roma Tre titled: “International Security, Nuclear Weapons and the War in Ukraine.” The event is part of the Young Women and Next Generation Initiative (YWNGI), an effort of the EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Consortium (EUNPDC) to engage the next generation in non-proliferation, disarmament, and arms control. Learn more.
- From October 3 to October 7, 2022, the VCDNP held its 24th intensive short course on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament for diplomats and practitioners. Check it out here.
- During an October 4, 2022 panel discussion, Vienna-based diplomats reviewed the results and implications of the Tenth Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). The panel discussion was hosted by the Japanese Mission in Vienna and also discussed the accomplishments of the Conference in the face of significant challenges, such as the war in Ukraine, North Korea’s expanding nuclear weapons program, and the continued crisis in arms control. Read more.
Individual Member Updates
- Laura Kennedy has been named a member of the International Security Advisor Board that Secretary Anthony Blinken and Under Secretary Bonnie D. Jenkins launched October 18, 2022. The Board provides independent insight, advice, and innovation on a range of rising risks, from arms control, emerging technologies, challenges posed by climate change, and resource scarcity, that pose significant security concerns to the United States. Learn more here.
- Artem Lazarev shared the following update on behalf of the UN Office on Drugs and Crime
- UNODC held bilateral consultations in Malaysia (with representatives from the South-East Asia Regional Centre for Counter-Terrorism (SEARCCT), the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of Home Affairs) and in Cambodia (with representatives from the National Authority of the Prevention of CBRN Weapons, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Ministry of Justice) to discuss the two countries’ possible adherence to ICSANT and to provide an overview of UNODC’s assistance services in this regard. The project is titled: Promoting Universalization and Effective Implementation of the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism, which is funded by the European Union.
Opportunities
- IISS has a job opportunity available and seeks to appoint a Programme Administrator for the Strategy, Technology, and Arms Control Programme. The role will assist with the management of current and future EU-funded projects as well as existing projects, and will be based in the IISS-Europe office in Berlin. See more.
- The Council on Foreign Relations recently began accepting applications for the Stanton Nuclear Security Fellowship. Questions should be directed to [email protected]. Learn more.
- Council for Strategic Risks has launched its newest Fellowship program, the Fellowship for Reducing Nuclear Weapons Risks. The Fellowship is a six-month program meant to bring together early-career professionals to connect, conduct original research on risk reduction, and meet at an on-site trip. They are offering a $500/month honorarium, and Fellows may work from any geographic location. Applications close November 21, 2022. Apply here.
- Savannah River National Lab is hiring for Post-Masters Interns within their Global Security Directorate team. Learn more.
- Third Way is hiring for a number of positions with their nuclear, climate, and national security programs. View the vacancies.
