The sound you are about to hear is India administering a black eye to Pakistan after a string of attacks in Kashmir. You can then expect the Pakistan military to give its “befitting response.” And then what? There are many good reasons for leaders in both countries to try to avoid serious escalation, but we are entering into new territory in the tit-for-tat choreography of settling grievances between neighbors that just can’t get along. Pakistan has a matching set of black eyes. The first resulted when Jaish-e-Muhammad, a terrorist outfit active in Kashmir, carried out a suicide bombing on Feb. 14. The government of Pakistan, now as always, denies involvement, but there is ample evidence that Jaish-e-Muhammad is linked to Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence, or ISI. The Kashmir insurgency is now largely homegrown, thanks to terrible Indian decisions in Kashmir. But local militants still need external support. As long as the Jaish leadership remains ensconced in Pakistan, denials of complicity won’t be convincing.