Last month, Beijing placed Central Military Commission (CMC) Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia and CMC member Liu Zhenli under investigation for alleged disciplinary violations. Predictably, the news set off a wave of speculation about what the purges mean for Taiwan. These narratives largely miss the point. The purges carry real implications for China’s domestic politics and short-term military readiness, but their relevance to Beijing’s Taiwan policy is limited.

Commentary linking military purges to Taiwan contingencies tends to fall into three camps. Some argue that the likelihood of war has increased because there are fewer senior officers able or willing to restrain paramount leader Xi Jinping. Others contend that the widespread nature of the disciplinary action – and the corruption it exposes – makes Beijing less prepared for a prolonged conflict, reducing the likelihood of aggression in the near term. Still others insist that the purges reflect Xi’s impatience to resolve the Taiwan issue and, while delaying conflict in the short run, are aimed at clearing obstacles and accelerating the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) readiness for a Taiwan operation.

Read the full piece in The Diplomat.

Header image: Building at the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, Beijing. By Netson