It was already Monday in Tehran when President Donald Trump declared a deal to end the war he started with Iran more than four months ago. Determined to claim success on his 80^th birthday, Trump wrote on his social media account that  “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” and the Strait of Hormuz – open to all traffic before the war – would now reopen again and that “peace and security” will ensue for one of the world’s most troubled regions.

In fact, a memorandum of understanding (MOU) that took months and multiple intermediaries to reach resolves none of the complicated disputes between the U.S. and Iran over its nuclear program, missile arsenal, or support for regional militants who, like the Islamic Republic of Iran, oppose the existence of Israel as a Jewish-ruled state.

As of this writing, the Trump administration has not released the text of the MOU while Iranian media accounts presented the agreement as an unalloyed victory for Tehran that would entail the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets and potentially $300 billion more for “reconstruction.” The agreement extends a ceasefire by 60 days during which the parties are supposed to resolve extremely complicated issues such as the disposition of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and stockpiled enriched uranium that previous rounds of talks have failed to decide.

Whether a ceasefire will even last until or beyond its scheduled signing Friday in Geneva remains uncertain, with potential spoilers – especially Israel, still occupying more than a fifth of Lebanon in pursuit of its goal of severely weakening Iran’s ally, Hezbollah. An Israeli strike on south Beirut on Sunday nearly scuttled the MOU, and Israeli officials from left to right expressed dismay that none of their goals in initiating Israel’s second war on Iran within a year had been met.

In fact, those goals were unobtainable through the air war mounted by the U.S. and Israel. While thousands were killed – including Iran’s top leadership – in the initial days of the conflict and massive damage done to Iranian infrastructure, Iran was clearly anticipating the attacks and had prepared for them by identifying successors to key officials and dispersing missiles and drones throughout the country.

For the first time, Iran effectively weaponized its geographic advantage in flanking the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of the world’s energy and multiple other key exports transit, sending oil prices over $100 a barrel and triggering global economic distress. Iran also retaliated, not just against Israel and U.S. targets, but against Arab neighbors that host American troops. The attacks caused billions of dollars in damage to infrastructure and massive reputational damage that threatens Gulf Cooperation Council members’ multiyear efforts to pivot from fossil fuel exporting to becoming centers of international commerce and tourism. Pressure from these U.S. allies undoubtedly increased Trump’s motivation to put an end to a war gone awry as did rising domestic opposition to a conflict that cost U.S. families at least $100 billion in military spending and higher gasoline prices, according to economist Mark Zandi.

The war further dented the U.S. reputation for global leadership as Trump demanded help in reopening the Strait of Hormuz from European allies who had not been consulted before the war and from China, whose own reputation for sober statesmanship was burnished by the Iran debacle.

However, while many Iranian officials gloated, Iran’s more than 90 million people are among the war’s biggest losers. One of Trump’s original goals had been “regime change” that would ease the suffering of a population burdened by harsh repression – including the killing of thousands of protestors in January – as well as a plummeting economy. Instead, the U.S. and Israeli assassinations of Iran’s top leaders – including longtime Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – empowered veterans of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps who are equally repressive and even less risk averse than their predecessors. Trump found no Iranian “Delcy Rodriguez” to do his bidding, and reported cockamamie schemes to promote discredited former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad never came close to fruition.

The regime will now enter the Shi’ite religion’s most important holy days – starting next week with Ashura, which commemorates the death of the most revered figure for devout Shi’ites, the Imam Hossein, at Karbala at the hands of a tyrannical ruler in the seventh century. On July 4, as the U.S. marks the 250^th anniversary of its Declaration of Independence, Iran will finally begin a funeral for Ali Khamenei, including days of mourning in Tehran and Qom before his burial in his home city of Mashhad on July 9. Khamenei, according to his followers, died a martyr, and his virulent hostility to the U.S. and Israel were only vindicated by a war that was neither legal under international norms nor successful given its outcome so far and its huge economic and human costs.

What comes next in the 47-year struggle between the U.S. and Iran is hard to foresee. But in a region largely ruled by autocrats and plagued by other long-lasting conflicts such as the bloody Palestinian-Israeli struggle, one can hope for the best but prepare for even worse.