On March 26, a Taipei court sentenced Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) founder Ko Wen-je to 17 years in prison in a corruption case that the TPP and Kuomintang (KMT) allege was politically motivated. The verdict, which also strips Ko of his civil rights for six years, will reshape Taiwanese politics ahead of this November’s island-wide local elections and the 2028 presidential race. The party that stands to gain the most from the shakeup is the KMT.

The ruling dealt a heavy blow to the TPP, a party built largely around Ko’s personality. Ko is now barred from running for president in 2028, and while he plans to appeal the verdict, that decision is unlikely to come in time for him to run. Legislator Huang Kuo-chang has led the TPP effectively since taking over as chair in January 2025, but he lacks the profile to mount a competitive presidential bid, and his run for mayor of New Taipei City remains a long shot. 

While the TPP has shown impressive durability in a system that favors two-party contests, it lacks the financial resources of the main parties and has struggled to cultivate a deep bench capable of contesting top-tier offices. Its best hope now is to secure strategic gains in this November’s local elections and find a way to remain relevant in 2028.

Read the full article in The Diplomat.

Header image: Ko Wen-je in Taipei City Mayor’s Office. By 臺北市政府秘書處