Report

The Arms Trade Treaty at 10

A Review of Successes and Shortcomings of a Decade of Global Regulation of the International Arms Trade

Looking back at the first ten years of ATT implementation and developing recommendations for the treaty’s next decade

The Arms Trade Treaty (ATT), the world’s first global, legally binding instrument to regulate the conventional arms trade, marks the 10th anniversary of its entry into force on 24 December 2024. Reflecting back on the ATT’s first decade, this report is the culmination of the Stimson Center’s “Arms Trade Treaty at 10” project, which, over the past year, brought together key actors involved in both original ATT negotiations and its current operation to discuss the treaty’s past and future.

The report examines the extent to which the aims of the treaty have been met within its first decade and outlines actions that may be undertaken to improve the treaty’s infrastructure, framework, and approach moving forward. It evaluates core elements of the treaty’s operation and function (from the utility of the Conferences of States Parties, the ATT Secretariat, and finances; to State implementation of ATT articles; to treaty universalization efforts) and provides specific recommendations to further the treaty’s aims of reducing human suffering and promoting global peace and security.

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

Executive Summary (PDF)

Full Report (PDF)

Recommendations (PDF)

Executive Summary

On 2 April 2013, the United Nations General Assembly adopted the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT). The treaty established, for the first time, common global minimum standards to regulate the international trade of conventional weapons in order to reduce human suffering and build confidence between States. In August 2024 the ATT will hold its 10th Conference of States Parties and the treaty marks the 10th anniversary of its entry into force on 24 December 2024. The treaty’s 10th anniversary is an opportune time to reflect on the ATT’s impact and examine:

whether the treaty is living up to the expectations and intentions of its adopters;
whether States Parties are on track to achieve the treaty’s objectives; and
what can be done to ensure the treaty’s continued impact and promise.

The Stimson Center has spent the last year undertaking the project, “The Arms Trade Treaty at 10,” to look back at the first ten years of the treaty and develop recommendations to strengthen ATT implementation and universalization for the treaty’s next decade. We convened a diverse cross-section of government, ATT Secretariat, UN, and civil society participants who were all closely involved in the development of the treaty to reflect on the work that was undertaken to achieve the ATT and ensure its implementation. Our convening included those who have stayed intimately involved in the ATT and its processes to date, along with those who are now reflecting from a distance.

The report examines the extent to which the aims of the treaty have been met and outlines actions that may be undertaken to improve the treaty’s infrastructure, framework, and approach moving forward. It evaluates core elements of the treaty’s operation and function, from the utility of the Conferences of States Parties, the ATT Secretariat, and finances; to State implementation of ATT articles; to treaty universalization efforts.

Ultimately the report asserts that it is essential to balance justified criticism of the treaty’s failure to make clearly observable progress towards the objective of reducing human suffering with recognition of its achievements in norm-setting, universalization, and the development and enhancement of national control systems.

The mere presence of the ATT and its institutionalization of the link between the arms trade, international law, and human suffering is an enormous normative achievement. Additionally, the ATT has catalyzed the adoption or reformation of numerous national-level regulations and statutes related to the trade in conventional weapons, which is likely raising the day-to-day standards of the global arms trade.

However, we must also recognize where States Parties have fallen short in achieving the (admittedly lofty) expectations of the treaty. States Parties’ performance in using the treaty to address human suffering, peace, and security — its real-world implementation by States in arms transfer decision making — as well as continued challenges in realizing States Parties’ compliance on a technical level — particularly regarding reporting compliance and transparency — have often left much to be desired.

In examining the specific barriers that have frustrated efforts to achieve the instrument’s most ambitious objectives, the report reveals a number of crosscutting themes that States Parties, the Secretariat, non-governmental organizations, and other stakeholders should consider in their approaches to advancing the ATT in its second decade.

Living Up to Treaty Aspirations

While it is understandable that the first decade has focused on technical aspects of implementation, a lack of attention to the instrument’s impact on real-world arms transfers and their consequences for peace, security, and human suffering has become a glaring shortcoming. In a time of rising tensions, all stakeholders have an obligation to support a renewed focus on the treaty’s core object and purpose and the aspirations that drove its adoption. This should include the development of dedicated mechanisms and fora for examining arms transfer decisions and treaty compliance in the context of conflict and crises and violations of international humanitarian and human rights law.

Strategizing for the Future

In the current global context, the ATT faces a pivotal moment. Stakeholders must ensure the treaty and its processes evolve to remain relevant and enhance their impact on international peace, security, and stability. Such an evolution requires strategies that match resources, processes, and reforms with a new set of objectives for the treaty’s second decade. This should include contextually relevant outreach and cross-sector stakeholder engagement to encourage compliance and universalization.

Innovating for Global Challenges

A decade of treaty implementation has revealed shortcomings in current modalities, practices, and approaches. To remain fit for purpose, all stakeholders must be willing to learn and innovate from these early lessons, including in terms of reorienting CSPs to meet new priorities, expanding treaty scope to respond to changing contexts and technological developments in arms, and working together to raise common standards and understanding of obligations.

Strengthening Stakeholder Partnerships

The ATT negotiations brought together expertise from a variety of fields — export controls, disarmament, human rights, and conflict prevention, among others. Today, interdisciplinary collaboration continues to be an underutilized resource for the ATT. Accordingly, all stakeholders — but especially States Parties and the Secretariat — should explore how to develop new mechanisms and institutionalize a more diverse set of modalities to (1) strengthen relationships with those that had been part of the treaty negotiations and (2) facilitate engagement with key external audiences to further broaden the ATT community. Vitally, this will require making ATT processes and forums more accessible to civil society, expert communities outside of Geneva, and non-traditional government stakeholders.

Promoting Compliance and Accountability

Within official ATT processes there are no meaningful mechanisms to hold States Parties accountable for their compliance. Though civil society has made significant contributions to oversight, States Parties and the Secretariat must develop platforms for States to hold one another accountable. This could include dedicated CSP platforms, peer-to-peer review processes, and penalties for non-compliance.

Aligning Resources and Objectives

Over the past decade, expanding roles and expectations of key implementing partners, including the Secretariat and civil society, have not been matched with the necessary resources. In the treaty’s second decade, stakeholders must end the practice of demanding that these key constituencies continue to do more without the requisite support. In particular, States Parties and relevant funding mechanisms should ensure that objectives surrounding administration, compliance, universalization, and implementation are aligned with the necessary funding and delivered according to known best practices.

Measuring Impact Effectively

Over the past decade, the development of mechanisms designed to measure the impact and efficacy of the treaty and its attendant initiatives has been limited. The result is a knowledge gap that risks hindering the design of more effective approaches across all lines of effort. All stakeholders should prioritize the development of new measures — aligned with international best practice — to assess, monitor, and evaluate treaty implementation and impact. This should include new assessments on how the treaty has influenced the development of arms transfer systems and shaped arms transfer decision-making since its adoption, identification of key performance indicators for treaty objectives, and methodologies for evaluating the efficacy of treaty bodies and their work.

Empowering Treaty Champions

Encouraging compliance and universalization requires looking beyond existing processes for champions and advocates. Accordingly, all stakeholders should consider how to localize ATT engagement and outreach. This should include support for regional champions, “friends of the ATT,” new forums for engagement at the regional and sub-regional level, and partnerships with non-traditional stakeholders to unlock political will and buy-in.

Crafting Responsive Outreach

The past decade has illustrated the burdens and challenges of treaty adoption and implementation at both practical and political levels. Accordingly, all stakeholders should prioritize context-relevant universalization outreach, the crafting of treaty support mechanisms, and messaging that aligns with the contexts and needs of States Parties and potential adopters. This should include more flexible assistance regimes, tailored messaging reflecting local priorities and interests, and a focus on synergies to alleviate implementation burdens and encourage compliance.

Enhancing Transparency

Transparency is fundamental to enabling progress on all aspects of the treaty’s object and purpose. Unfortunately, the past decade has seen an erosion of transparency across several domains, which fundamentally undermines efforts to support accountability or assess treaty impact. To achieve the ambitions of the treaty’s second decade, States Parties and the Secretariat must commit to an ethos and practice of transparency. This should include more regular and publicly available information sharing on treaty activities, plans, and outreach; fewer private initial or annual reports; and more consistent engagement with non-government stakeholders on the development of ATT processes.

Report Roadmap

This report is divided into three main sections. Following the report’s introductory materials (preface, forward, executive summary, and methodology), the first section, “ATT Process,” discusses the evolution and activities of the ATT Conferences of States Parties, the ATT Secretariat, and the ATT’s finances. Section Two, “ATT Implementation,” examines the state of implementation of several operational ATT articles, the resources and mechanisms that have been developed to support State fulfillment of these articles, and challenges to effective treaty implementation. Section Three considers both ATT universalization and approaches to ensuring the treaty’s continued relevance and momentum. Each section contains recommendations to support the treaty’s next decade of operation. Following the conclusion of the report, Annex 1 provides a consolidated list of the recommendations, organized by the themes listed above.

As we move to the second decade of the treaty, preserving and improving the ATT will depend on overcoming the expanding deficit of political will. Since the ATT’s adoption, the geopolitical context has grown ever-more complex, with increasing great power tensions, rising rates of conflict, and mounting skepticism towards multilateralism and international law all undermining the political determination for improved transparency and responsibility in the conventional defense space. Realization of the recommendations within this report will be challenging, but the ATT is needed now more than ever.