Executive Summary

The article examines the significant geopolitical ramifications of the upcoming 2024 elections in the Republic of Georgia and the United States, in relation to the South Caucasus. The authors emphasize the region’s importance as a strategic crossroad between Asia and Europe (the New Silk Road), with key energy and trade routes passing through Georgia.

The article outlines the uncertain outcome of Georgia’s parliamentary elections (taking place on October 26), detailing three potential scenarios. Each scenario poses different consequences for Georgia’s relations with the West, Russia, and China, particularly in terms of the country’s Euro–Atlantic aspirations. Similarly, the US election will influence the region’s future by influencing the behavior of South Caucasus states and neighboring powers.

The Importance of the South Caucasus

It has been said of the South Caucasus that it produces more history than it can consume. This observation has been particularly apt in the three-plus decades since its states—Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia—gained independence from the Soviet Union. This small but strategically important isthmus between the Caspian and Black Seas has seen all three of its countries involved in wars since they became independent. Georgia lost Abkhazia and Ossetia (around 20% of its territory) as a result of the 2008 Russian invasion; Azerbaijan took control of the majority Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh after launching a war in 2020 and ousting the entire Armenian population in 2023. Georgia maintains good relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The region has also played a key role in economic and transportation networks between Asia and Europe. The Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline brings Caspian oil to Europe, and the Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum pipeline does the same for natural gas. Georgia, a transit country for both projects, is slated to build a new port at Anaklia, which could help the country become a trading hub between Europe and Asia. 

Following the Rose Revolution in 2003, Georgia adopted a democratic and pro-Western orientation. However, over the past five to six years, Georgia has been expanding relations with Russia and, more recently, has adopted a range of policies that indicate a shift away from a Western trajectory toward closer ties with Russia and China. Increased trade with Russia and selecting a Chinese-Singaporean consortium to build the Anaklia port are examples of this. All this while Georgia finally was granted EU candidate status in December 2023, which was later halted as a result of the laws passed by the Georgian government.

This fall promises no abatement of the region’s political, economic, and military activity. Georgia’s Euro–Atlantic aspirations are at stake; Armenia is pursuing a policy of diversification and closer ties with the West, while Azerbaijan is strengthening its partnership with Turkey and mending differences with Russia.

Amid these developments, Georgian voters will go to the polls on October 26 in elections that both the government and the opposition see as having vital consequences. The results of these elections and Georgia’s foreign policy orientation will play an important role in shaping the region’s future.

On November 5, American voters will elect a new president. These elections will also affect the geopolitical future of the South Caucasus, determining the level of US engagement in the region and the behavior of South Caucasus states and neighboring powers.

Read the full article on the Foreign Policy Research Institute.