As Turkey and Syria struggle to cope with the aftermath of a deadly earthquake, Iran’s capital, Tehran, is ill-prepared to deal with a similar catastrophe.

“An earthquake in Tehran would be the disaster of the century,” Tehran City Council Chairman Mehdi Chamran said in the aftermath of the February 6, 2023 quake that has killed tens of thousands of Iran’s neighbors.

With some 16 million inhabitants, Tehran is the most populous metropolitan area in West Asia. It is highly prone to earthquakes, and, in the view of many scientists, long overdue for a “big one.” 

Six main fault lines and as many as 60 minor fault lines run across Tehran, underneath numerous high-rise buildings, both residential and commercial. “The high seismic hazard, in combination with a dense population distribution and several vulnerability factors, turn Tehran into one of the top 20 worldwide megacities at a high earthquake risk,” according to a 2020 article by the International Journal of Geo-Information.

Tehran already grapples with a myriad of woes. Pollution is a morbid mainstay of the city, which is often smothered in smog, traffic jams are incessant, and construction standards, where they exist, are ill-enforced. Add a deepening economic crisis and recent political tensions over anti-government protests, and it is hard to imagine the impact of an earthquake on top of all of this.

Research and history suggest that it is a matter of when, not if, a major earthquake will strike Tehran.

In 2017, then-Tehran City Council Chairman Mohsen Hashemi stated that Tehran would experience a massive earthquake “in the near future,” adding, “According to experts, Tehran experiences an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.0 on the Richter scale every 150 years.”

Since the last time Tehran experienced a strong earthquake was over 190 years ago, the city is indeed overdue.

Although Tehran officials have repeatedly expressed concern, no significant effort has been made to mitigate the colossal damage an earthquake would cause. Instead, unsafe buildings have continued to appear all over the city in recent years.

On January 27, the Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) quoted Ghodratollah Mohammadi, executive director of Tehran’s Fire Department and Safety Services, as saying that his agency began assessing construction safety in Tehran six years ago. It evaluated 33,000 buildings in the city, dividing them into four groups, from least to most dangerous.

Mohammadi said 129 buildings were deemed among the most dangerous, and that safety measures had been taken for ten of them in order to help lessen the magnitude of damage and risk should an earthquake strike. He promised action on the remainder of the buildings before the Iranian New Year on March 21, but gave no details about how this could be accomplished. Hospitals are on the list of unsafe buildings.

In November, 2022, Tehran mayor Alireza Zakani was quoted as saying that publishing a list of unsafe buildings in the city would cause residents to flee, adding that “if the list is published, no one would remain in Tehran.”

While departing from an unsafe situation is clearly better than confronting a potential disaster, Tehran residents would face the dilemma of where exactly to go.

Most amenities and facilities, including health centers, are located in Tehran and a few other major cities. The capital’s population has grown in the past few decades as jobs have disappeared in rural areas and smaller cities. For these reasons, a decision to leave Tehran is extremely difficult.

High-rise construction started multiplying in Tehran in the 1990s, during the mayoral tenure of Gholamhossein Kharbaschi. Tree after tree was cut down and old green areas in northern Tehran disappeared, making room for residential and commercial buildings, mostly high-rises. As north Tehran filled up, other less affluent parts of the capital also succumbed to the building boom. Iran’s economic woes and high inflation contributed, as real estate was considered a safer investment than putting Iranian currency into the bank.

Many buildings were constructed without attention to proper construction standards. Narrow streets and alleys now bristle with high-rises that could cause enormous casualties should they collapse. Yet the construction boom has not slowed.

Faramarz, a Tehran-based civil engineer who has been active in the construction sector since the early 1990s, and who spoke to the author of this article on condition that his last name be withheld, said, “Some of those buildings were not built fully legally, but were built anyway amid the corruption craze of the boom—with neglect, bribery, or a bit of both.”

Narrow streets would make it difficult for aid to reach building inhabitants in the event of an earthquake, he added. Even now, driving and parking on some of these streets and alleyways is incredibly hard, as there is simply not enough space for the number of units and residents there.

Beyond concerns about casualties from building collapse are fears that an earthquake would trigger massive fires due to the widespread use of natural gas in Tehran for heating and cooking.

Many safety measures have not been implemented in Tehran buildings. Some were safely designed, but the steps were not implemented or properly supervised. Like in Turkey, low-grade materials were often used.

A major question for Iranian authorities is whether it is possible to begin to rectify the situation before it is too late.

“While a large amount of irreparable damage has been done, some safety measures could still be taken by the city’s municipality,” said an Iran-based geology professor who asked to remain unnamed. “Also, people could implement some safety measures inside their homes, such as where they place or hang objects, and learn what to do in case of an earthquake,” he said.

Even more important, he added, was upgrading new construction, and assuring that it meets earthquake safety standards.

Mehrnaz Samimi is a DC-based journalist, editor, and Iran expert. Follow her on Twitter at @MehrnazSamimi.