Background
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania’s security cooperation partnership with the United States is based on post-Cold War realignments. In the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s disintegration, the United States sought to expand NATO membership eastward, hoping to both cement its leverage in Europe and develop influence with emerging former Soviet satellites. The decision was hotly debated, and had notable opponents, including the architect of Cold War containment, George Kennan. Nevertheless, over the course of the 90’s and early 2000’s, NATO extended across the former Iron Curtain, and in 2004, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were among a cohort of six countries to join the alliance.
NATO’s expansion across the former Soviet Union has historically gnawed at Russia and has fueled rising tensions between Moscow and the West. That the Baltics are former Soviet Republics, share a border with Russia, and are now NATO members has thrust the region into the frontline of the West’s tense standoff with Moscow, and has catalyzed a significant expansion of U.S. arms transfers to the three countries. Most importantly, these frontline states enjoy protections under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, meaning any attack on the Baltics would trigger mutual defense guarantees that could put the United States in a position of active hostilities with Russia.
Overview
Despite mutual defense guarantees under the NATO treaty, security analysts have noted that a concerted military effort by Russia could cut off the Baltics before reinforcements or meaningful assistance could arrive from the West. Accordingly, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have placed increasing emphasis on developing their own defense capabilities and, since the end of the Cold War, have primarily relied on the United States for the technical and financial support to do so.
Between FY2010 and FY2021 Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia received at least $684 million in U.S. security assistance, principally through the State Departments Foreign Military Financing Program and the Defense Department’s Section 333 Train and Equip authority. The split of the assistance between the countries is relatively even – at least $203 million for Estonia, $232 million for Latvia, and $248 million for Lithuania.
In the aftermath of Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014, the United States redoubled its security cooperation with the Baltics and other Eastern European partners. In 2014 the United States launched the European Deterrence Initiative (originally called the European Reassurance Initiative), which supports an increased U.S. military presence in Eastern Europe, including the Baltics, funds exercises and cooperative training in the region, facilitates the pre-positioning of U.S. equipment in Eastern Europe, and adds a resource to capacity building for partner countries. The Baltics have been cornerstone partners in this effort, which has amounted to nearly $30 billion between FY2016 and the FY2022 budget request.
The Baltics have also become significant recipients of U.S. foreign military training. Though disaggregated figures are not publicly available, between 2015 and 2018 Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania received around $1.2 million annually from through the State Department’s International Military Education and Training (IMET) program, a figure that rose to $2 million in 2019. Additionally, the Baltics have received at least $290 million in Pentagon train and equip programming since 2015.
Beyond assistance, the Baltics have become significant customers for U.S. defense articles. Since FY2015, the U.S. government has sold more than $503 million worth of military equipment and services to the Baltics, with an additional $346.3 million sold commercially. These weapon systems have included Javelin Missiles for Estonia, UH-60M Black Hawk Helicopters for Latvia, and M1126 Stryker Infantry Carriers for Lithuania. In fact, in FY2021 alone, the U.S. government sold arms worth $37 million to Estonia, $23 million to Latvia, and $319 million to Lithuania.
The partnerships have been underpinned by additional bilateral and multilateral agreements between Washington and the Baltic states, including a 2017 Defense Cooperation Agreement and a 2019 Security Cooperation Roadmap signed by the United States, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Aims and Objectives
U.S. security cooperation with the Baltics is seen as contributing to a range of U.S. objectives for the region, including developing practical Baltic defense capabilities, demonstrating political support and diplomatic reassurance in the vis-a-vis of Russia, and supporting institutional development, particularly in terms of civil-military affairs. An increased U.S. relationship is also intended to deter Russia from military activity directed at the Baltics and Eastern Europe more generally.
To be sure, the improved integration of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania into European security structures and development of NATO interoperability can claim notable successes. But with tensions in the region at an all-time high, many have noted that the intensifying security ties between the United States and the Baltics are compounding Russia’s regional anxieties and its decisions to take military action to secure its western flank. As has been seen in Ukraine, the drift westward of former Soviet states seems to have contributed substantially to Moscow’s risk tolerance for actions to preserve its “sphere of influence”.
Despite these investments and developments, the Baltics remain overwhelmingly outgunned by their eastern neighbor, and depend on its NATO membership for their deterrence. Combined, the three countries can call upon some 30,000 active duty troops, and their defense budgets, though meeting the 2% target for NATO members, are comparatively small. A 2016 simulation by the RAND Corporation found in its wargames the longest it took for Russia to reach the capitals of Estonia and Latvia was 60 hours. To offset tactical disadvantage, NATO has kept an “enhanced forward presence” of international forces stationed across the Baltics other Eastern European geographies.
The Baltics and Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
The invasion of Ukraine has sparked a substantial expansion in NATO presence in the Baltics. Over the course of the last several weeks and months, the United States has deployed an additional 15,000 troops and advanced U.S. defense equipment to Europe, including F-35 fighters and an infantry battalion taskforce to the Baltics. Other NATO allies are also expanding their presence to add to rotational deployments in the Baltics, including the UK, Germany, Norway, and Denmark. NATO has also, for the first time, activated its Response Force, a contingent of more than 40,000 allied special operations and maritime troops now on high alert.
Nevertheless, the NATO presence in the Baltics is often seen less as a practical defense measure but rather as a “tripwire” for any potential Russian assault, making it clear that such military action against NATO’s eastern flank would be against many members of the alliance, including the United States. Still, the future of Eastern Europe remains deeply unsettled, with renewed focus on potential fault lines between Russia and its Baltic neighbors. And while the Biden Administration has made it clear that U.S. troops will not be engaged in Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are NATO allies and host to hundreds of U.S. troops. Any spillover of the crisis there could trigger a direct confrontation between Moscow and Washington, with dire consequences for international security. With the Russian invasion wreaking increasing violence on Ukraine, many eyes will be turned to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to judge the contagion of this conflict.
NATO’s Frontline – How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine is Shaping Security Cooperation with the Baltics
By Elias Yousif
In Conventional Arms
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent political shockwaves across the world. And while it is Ukrainians who are currently bearing the greatest costs of war, the reverberations of those shockwaves are felt acutely in the Baltics. Former Soviet Republics themselves, Russia’s revanchism in Ukraine and invocation of historical dominion over the country as pretext, touches at the very core of Baltic anxieties about their own security and sovereignty. As a result, the United States is closely eyeing the next potential fault line between Russia and the West that has the potential to trigger an even greater conflagration with the Kremlin. While Russia continues its assault on Ukrainian cities, NATO, and the United States in particular, is pouring additional military equipment and troops into the eastern flank – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Background
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania’s security cooperation partnership with the United States is based on post-Cold War realignments. In the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s disintegration, the United States sought to expand NATO membership eastward, hoping to both cement its leverage in Europe and develop influence with emerging former Soviet satellites. The decision was hotly debated, and had notable opponents, including the architect of Cold War containment, George Kennan. Nevertheless, over the course of the 90’s and early 2000’s, NATO extended across the former Iron Curtain, and in 2004, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania were among a cohort of six countries to join the alliance.
NATO’s expansion across the former Soviet Union has historically gnawed at Russia and has fueled rising tensions between Moscow and the West. That the Baltics are former Soviet Republics, share a border with Russia, and are now NATO members has thrust the region into the frontline of the West’s tense standoff with Moscow, and has catalyzed a significant expansion of U.S. arms transfers to the three countries. Most importantly, these frontline states enjoy protections under Article 5 of the NATO treaty, meaning any attack on the Baltics would trigger mutual defense guarantees that could put the United States in a position of active hostilities with Russia.
Overview
Despite mutual defense guarantees under the NATO treaty, security analysts have noted that a concerted military effort by Russia could cut off the Baltics before reinforcements or meaningful assistance could arrive from the West. Accordingly, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have placed increasing emphasis on developing their own defense capabilities and, since the end of the Cold War, have primarily relied on the United States for the technical and financial support to do so.
Between FY2010 and FY2021 Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia received at least $684 million in U.S. security assistance, principally through the State Departments Foreign Military Financing Program and the Defense Department’s Section 333 Train and Equip authority. The split of the assistance between the countries is relatively even – at least $203 million for Estonia, $232 million for Latvia, and $248 million for Lithuania.
In the aftermath of Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014, the United States redoubled its security cooperation with the Baltics and other Eastern European partners. In 2014 the United States launched the European Deterrence Initiative (originally called the European Reassurance Initiative), which supports an increased U.S. military presence in Eastern Europe, including the Baltics, funds exercises and cooperative training in the region, facilitates the pre-positioning of U.S. equipment in Eastern Europe, and adds a resource to capacity building for partner countries. The Baltics have been cornerstone partners in this effort, which has amounted to nearly $30 billion between FY2016 and the FY2022 budget request.
The Baltics have also become significant recipients of U.S. foreign military training. Though disaggregated figures are not publicly available, between 2015 and 2018 Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania received around $1.2 million annually from through the State Department’s International Military Education and Training (IMET) program, a figure that rose to $2 million in 2019. Additionally, the Baltics have received at least $290 million in Pentagon train and equip programming since 2015.
Beyond assistance, the Baltics have become significant customers for U.S. defense articles. Since FY2015, the U.S. government has sold more than $503 million worth of military equipment and services to the Baltics, with an additional $346.3 million sold commercially. These weapon systems have included Javelin Missiles for Estonia, UH-60M Black Hawk Helicopters for Latvia, and M1126 Stryker Infantry Carriers for Lithuania. In fact, in FY2021 alone, the U.S. government sold arms worth $37 million to Estonia, $23 million to Latvia, and $319 million to Lithuania.
The partnerships have been underpinned by additional bilateral and multilateral agreements between Washington and the Baltic states, including a 2017 Defense Cooperation Agreement and a 2019 Security Cooperation Roadmap signed by the United States, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
Aims and Objectives
U.S. security cooperation with the Baltics is seen as contributing to a range of U.S. objectives for the region, including developing practical Baltic defense capabilities, demonstrating political support and diplomatic reassurance in the vis-a-vis of Russia, and supporting institutional development, particularly in terms of civil-military affairs. An increased U.S. relationship is also intended to deter Russia from military activity directed at the Baltics and Eastern Europe more generally.
To be sure, the improved integration of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania into European security structures and development of NATO interoperability can claim notable successes. But with tensions in the region at an all-time high, many have noted that the intensifying security ties between the United States and the Baltics are compounding Russia’s regional anxieties and its decisions to take military action to secure its western flank. As has been seen in Ukraine, the drift westward of former Soviet states seems to have contributed substantially to Moscow’s risk tolerance for actions to preserve its “sphere of influence”.
Despite these investments and developments, the Baltics remain overwhelmingly outgunned by their eastern neighbor, and depend on its NATO membership for their deterrence. Combined, the three countries can call upon some 30,000 active duty troops, and their defense budgets, though meeting the 2% target for NATO members, are comparatively small. A 2016 simulation by the RAND Corporation found in its wargames the longest it took for Russia to reach the capitals of Estonia and Latvia was 60 hours. To offset tactical disadvantage, NATO has kept an “enhanced forward presence” of international forces stationed across the Baltics other Eastern European geographies.
The Baltics and Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
The invasion of Ukraine has sparked a substantial expansion in NATO presence in the Baltics. Over the course of the last several weeks and months, the United States has deployed an additional 15,000 troops and advanced U.S. defense equipment to Europe, including F-35 fighters and an infantry battalion taskforce to the Baltics. Other NATO allies are also expanding their presence to add to rotational deployments in the Baltics, including the UK, Germany, Norway, and Denmark. NATO has also, for the first time, activated its Response Force, a contingent of more than 40,000 allied special operations and maritime troops now on high alert.
Nevertheless, the NATO presence in the Baltics is often seen less as a practical defense measure but rather as a “tripwire” for any potential Russian assault, making it clear that such military action against NATO’s eastern flank would be against many members of the alliance, including the United States. Still, the future of Eastern Europe remains deeply unsettled, with renewed focus on potential fault lines between Russia and its Baltic neighbors. And while the Biden Administration has made it clear that U.S. troops will not be engaged in Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are NATO allies and host to hundreds of U.S. troops. Any spillover of the crisis there could trigger a direct confrontation between Moscow and Washington, with dire consequences for international security. With the Russian invasion wreaking increasing violence on Ukraine, many eyes will be turned to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania to judge the contagion of this conflict.
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