Stimson Center Releases Case Study of
US Crisis Management in South Asia
"Twin Peaks" Crisis Assessment Yields Valuable Lessons
The Henry L. Stimson Center released today a case study of the ten month-long crisis between India and Pakistan sparked by an attack by extremists on the Indian Parliament in December 2001. The case study of the "Twin Peaks" crisis by Polly Nayak and Michael Krepon is based on over two dozen interviews with US crisis managers situated at the time in Washington, New Delhi, and Islamabad. Among those interviewed were Secretary of State Colin Powell, Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, US Ambassador to India Robert Blackwill, and US Ambassador to Pakistan Nancy Powell.
Among the key lessons drawn by US officials from Twin Peaks crisis are the need for continuous, high-level US engagement in South Asia; the importance of improving US ties with both India and Pakistan; and the value of engaging other key countries in crisis management. The US officials interviewed in this case study widely agree that conditions for another significant crisis continue to exist in the region.
"This study effectively represents an early after-action report by senior US policy makers on their own perceptions of and actions during this crisis--on what they believe works, and on what should not be assumed to work in the future," notes co-author Polly Nayak. "We really appreciate the insights shared by these officials."
Co-author Michael Krepon warns that, "Another significant crisis in South Asia may not end peacefully, like the Twin Peaks crisis. If India and Pakistan come to blows, Washington’s ties to one or both of the antagonists could deteriorate badly, and violence by extremists could increase significantly in India, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Consequently, Washington must work tirelessly to improve ties between India and Pakistan. Instead, this item has dropped off the Bush administration’s agenda, as it focuses on a nuclear cooperation deal with India."
This case study is part of a larger effort directed by Peter Lavoy at the Naval Postgraduate School which will include case studies of Indian and Pakistani crisis management.
The full report, which includes a chronology of the Twin Peaks crisis, can be downloaded from the Stimson Center website at http://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?id=327. Hardcopies may be purchased for $10 by calling 202-223-5956. More information on the Stimson Center’s South Asia Project can be found at www.stimson.org/southasia.
Since its inception in 1989, the Henry L. Stimson Center, a nonprofit institution, has worked to combine rigorous research and analysis with a commitment to fostering dialogue on improved, pragmatic, nonpartisan policies. With nearly 40 senior scholars, research and administrative staff, the Center researches a variety of projects that focus on reducing the threat of weapons of mass destruction, building regional security, and strengthening institutions for international peace and security. More information on the Stimson Center can be found at www.stimson.org.
