Security & Strategy
Strategic Foresight Hub Program

The Red Cell

A devil’s advocate approach to US foreign policy that puts forward innovative solutions and unorthodox thinking about America’s role in the world

In Grand Strategy Research

The Red Cell project brings scholars together to question prevailing beliefs in US foreign policy and propose alternative approaches. Through policy memos, the Red Cell dissects key issues of US grand strategy for policymakers and alerts them to overlooked problems and solutions.

Project Note
Introducing Red Cell
Memos featuring creative and overlooked perspectives on important foreign policy issues

Research & Writing

Policy Memo
Whither Globalization: Retreat, Industrial Policy, Unintended Consequences
The assumption that a “new Washington consensus” will build a more stable and prosperous world is flawed
Mathew Burrows • Robert A. Manning
Policy Memo
Empowered Middle Powers and Potential Unthinkable Alliances   
Multi-aligned middle power countries have growing regional and global influence today and may become stronger allies in the future
Mathew Burrows • Robert A. Manning
Policy Memo
Ending the War in Ukraine: Harder Than It Seems
Examining the possible outcomes of the war in Ukraine, two years on
Mathew Burrows
Policy Memo
Accelerating Change But Not Necessarily an Inflection Point
The overuse of terms like “inflection point” clouds strategic thinking and the application of past lessons
Collin Meisel
Policy Memo
The “Chokepoint” Fallacy of Tech Export Controls
U.S. export controls on certain technologies might do more harm than good, giving China an incentive to develop indigenous capabilities
Ansgar Baums
Policy Memo
Broken Immigration Policy Undercuts Potential US Advantage
The United States could have a competitive edge over China in immigration if it changed its approach and could restore its global reputation
Harry Hannah
Policy Memo
Would Anyone “Win” a Taiwan Conflict?
The global economy would face devastating consequences in a US-China clash even with actions short of direct conventional conflict
Robert A. Manning
Policy Memo
Keep Calm and Carry On: China’s Armed Coercion Isn’t Working
Assumption: China’s military buildup and “gray-zone” coercion means it will be more effective in dominating its neighbors and achieving its goals
James Siebens
Policy Memo
Artificial Intelligence and Synthetic Biology Are Not Harbingers of Doom
To advance research in biotechnology and AI, the private and public sectors must take actions to remedy perceptions of benevolence, competence, and integrity
David Bray
Policy Memo
A Second Trump Term: Opportunities and Risks
A Trump victory in the 2024 presidential election would present both old and new challenges for the international liberal order
Mathew Burrows • Julian Mueller-Kaler
Policy Memo
Is a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan the Most Likely Scenario?
Conventional Washington wisdom holds that Beijing’s best strategy toward Taiwan is an imminent D-Day-type assault and conflict with the US
Robert A. Manning
Policy Memo
Be Careful What You Wish For: Putin’s Replacement Might Not Be Better
It is a risk to assume Putin’s successor would be more likely to end the war in Ukraine or more likely to espouse liberal values
Mathew Burrows
Policy Memo
Africa’s Future: Rethinking Development Based on the African Experience
Exploring alternatives to infrastructure-led development in Africa based on the experience of some African states
Robert A. Manning • Aude Darnal
Policy Memo
Red Cell: Is There Still Room in the US Foreign Policy Toolbox for Nation-Building?
As national security concerns focus on Russia and China, the US should maintain a capability to help stabilize fragile states
Andrew Hyde
Policy Memo
Red Cell: The Promise and Pitfalls of an “Israel Model” for Ukraine
The Israel Model is the best of the bad options available to guarantee Ukraine’s future security but is not without risks
Emma Ashford • Kelly A. Grieco
Policy Memo
Red Cell: Can the United States be Morally “Pure” and “Green”?
Excluding China jeopardizes the rapid achievement of the US’s climate goals
Mathew Burrows
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