Security & Strategy
Strategic Foresight Hub Program

Defense Strategy & Planning

Studying the use of military force as an instrument of foreign policy, diplomacy, and coercion

In Defense Policy & Posture Research

The Defense Strategy and Planning project studies the role of military force and operational art in modern great power competition. Our team conducts rigorous research and analysis on the ways, means, and ends of military operations conducted by the U.S., China, and other major powers to achieve foreign policy objectives short of war. Our work highlights the evolving role of military force in the post-Cold War era, including in gray zone conflict.

By combining military and diplomatic history with data-driven analysis, we identify and assess the historical, environmental, and political characteristics that have shaped the modern use of military force, and provide tools and analysis to decision-makers to help inform choices on how to more effectively use the U.S. military across domains and into the future.

Book
China’s Use of Armed Coercion: To Win Without Fighting
Examining China’s use of its armed forces for coercion in the 21st century
James Siebens

Reports & Papers

Report
Rethinking the Threat: Why China is Unlikely to Invade Taiwan
An invasion of Taiwan is far more complicated than Washington narratives would suggest
Dan Grazier • James Siebens • MacKenna Rawlins
Report
A Credible Grand Strategy: The Urgent Need to Set Priorities
It is time for the United States to rethink how it engages with the rest of the world
Christopher Preble
Book
China’s Use of Armed Coercion: To Win Without Fighting
Examining China’s use of its armed forces for coercion in the 21st century
James Siebens
Report
Military Operations Other Than War in China’s Foreign Policy
China’s use of Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW) is essential to understanding how Beijing views the utility of military force in the 21st century.
James Siebens • Ryan Lucas
Book
Military Coercion and US Foreign Policy: The Use of Force Short of War
Examining the use of the U.S. military force as a coercive tool, using lessons drawn from the post-Cold War era (1991–2018).
Barry Blechman • James Siebens • Melanie W. Sisson
Report
The Militarization of Artificial Intelligence
Building understanding among stakeholders about AI technology and develop responsive solutions to mitigate risks.
Melanie W. Sisson
Policy Paper
Defining Moment: The Threat and Use of Force in American Foreign Policy Since 1989
Barry Blechman

Additional Research

Field Note
Taiwan Up Close: Why Geography Complicates Invasion
Ground-level observations that challenge assumptions about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan
MacKenna Rawlins • Dan Grazier
Policy Memo
How to Avoid a War over Taiwan   
The Trump administration must revisit Taiwan policy to restore U.S. diplomatic credibility with China.
James Siebens
Policy Memo
Engineer an Armistice in Ukraine
The United States must lead negotiations to end the fighting in Ukraine
James Siebens
Video
What You Should Know About US Grand Strategy
Christopher Preble outlines five recommendations for a better U.S. foreign policy
Christopher Preble • Adrienne Cuffley
Policy Memo
Keep Calm and Carry On: China’s Armed Coercion Isn’t Working
Assumption: China’s military buildup and “gray-zone” coercion means it will be more effective in dominating its neighbors and achieving its goals
James Siebens
Data Tool
US Global Force Posture and US Military Operations Short of War
An interactive visualization and downloadable dataset of overseas US active duty troop presence from 1991-2020.
James Siebens • Ryan Lucas • Jocelyn Wang
Impact
Examining the U.S. military’s use of force short of war
Insight for defense policymakers that challenges longstanding assumptions
Project Note
Military Coercion and US Foreign Policy: The Use of Force Short of War
Despite its status as sole superpower after the Cold War, US efforts to coerce other states failed as often as they succeeded.

News & Commentary

Commentary
Today’s Challenges Cry Out for New Approaches to US Security
A new foreign policy agenda that sets priorities and shares burdens with other global actors can lead to a more credible grand strategy
Christopher Preble
Commentary
NATO Must Stand Up to Turkey’s Blackmail
Ankara has legitimate security concerns, but the alliance should firmly reject Erdogan’s transactional diplomacy when it comes to Swedish accession
James Siebens • Mathieu Droin
Commentary
The Problem With European Militaries’ Indo-Pacific Push
The best way Europe can support the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy is by shoring up European security – and freeing the U.S. to focus on providing security in the Indo-Pacific
Rupert Schulenburg
Commentary
Is America’s Shifting Taiwan Policy Making Anyone Safer?
There is a real danger that the actions the United States is taking in an effort to signal support for Taiwan will actually spur a conflict over Taiwan
James Siebens • Spencer Dingman
Commentary
Is Russia’s Invasion a Case of Coercive Diplomacy Gone Wrong?
Putin may have intended to achieve his political goals in Ukraine merely by presenting a highly credible threat of invasion.
James Siebens
Commentary
Realising The Great Change: Beijing’s South China Sea Lawfare Strategy
Too often, foreign policy analysts have focused principally on the hard power component of China’s ambitions in the South China Sea.
Ryan Lucas
Commentary
Would the American Public Really Defend Taiwan?
The doctrine of “strategic ambiguity” makes it critical that any military action taken in defense of Taiwan has the overwhelming support of the American public.
James Loomis
Op-Ed
The Trump Administration’s Mixed Messaging on Taiwan Strait Transits
The U.S. needs to make clear if transits through the Taiwan Strait are routine demonstrations of its navigational rights or intentional signals of deterrence.
James Siebens • Ryan Lucas
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Events

  • Past
  • Event
The Realities of an Invasion of Taiwan
  • June 26, 2025
  • Past
  • Event
Security and Sovereignty: Exploring Canada’s Vision for Land Power with Lieutenant-General M.C. Wright, Commander of the Canadian Army
  • March 19, 2025
  • Past
  • Event
A Credible Grand Strategy for Today’s World
  • February 6, 2024
  • Past
  • Event
China’s Use of Armed Coercion: To Win Without Fighting
  • January 23, 2024
  • Past
  • Event
Russia’s Road to War with Ukraine
  • February 23, 2023
  • Past
  • Event
Military Operations Other Than War in China’s Foreign Policy
  • November 14, 2022
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