In this talk, Mathew Burrows draws from his extensive experience and expertise in Strategic Foresight to explain the National Security Council’s multifaceted approach to the creation of the Global Trends reports. Beginning in the mid-1990s as a smaller classified publication between the State Department and National Intelligence Council, the scope and focus of the Global Trends reports have shifted significantly. Intended to incorporate a plethora of worldwide experts outside the intelligence community, the various reports published over the years have expanded to cover more regions and trends in demographics, economics, energy, and even health. With this came a shift from its focus from continuity to disruption, acknowledging the prevalence of change in the future. As the publications became more sophisticated and expansive, policy planners and decision-makers all over the world, even from places like China and Russia, have found tremendous value in the understanding of potential futures, surprises, and shocks as well as the identification of global trends that can be influenced. With accurate predictions ranging from the rise of populism to even the COVID-19 pandemic, the NIC’s Global Trends reports continue to be a vital resource in a world filled with significant uncertainty.   

As Burrows shares insights into the Global Trends’ methodology, evolution, and impact on policy-making, he also highlights how difficult it is to maintain concentration on long-term considerations, when day-to-day priorities often take precedence. Especially as countries continue to evolve on a hyper-globalized scale, the importance of relevant forecasts and reports such as Global Trends cannot be underscored enough to avoid risks and maximize opportunities.   

Watch the full discussion on YouTube.