Syria is the only place where US and Russian forces exist in the same country. The attempts to isolate Syria from Ukraine politically and economically is difficult but is considered possible; military compartmentalization is desired by both US and Russia, but not guaranteed. Based on interviews with 21 experts and officials, different scenarios for Syria in the next six to twelve months were discussed. The most likely is a freeze in the security domain, stalemate in the political domain, and deterioration in the economic domain. This is likely to last as long as the war stays within Ukraine. In the case of an escalation to a NATO-Russia confrontation, the security and political status quo in Syria is expected to dissolve.

Read the full paper from the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung here.