Iran deprived Jimmy Carter of a second term and nearly led to the impeachment of Ronald Reagan. Now it’s weighing down the already unpopular presidency of Donald Trump, with more than a third of even his own MAGA base opposed to the war with Iran.

Trump, at 80, well remembers the 1979 Iran hostage crisis when the new and still consolidating Islamic Republic held 52 American diplomats for 444 days, a huge humiliation for the U.S., which had only recently emerged from a disastrous war in Vietnam. Those experiences highlighted that there are limits to what the United States can do to force its way on prickly, nationalistic countries that reject coercion by major powers and will suffer extreme punishment to preserve their independence.

Told by Bibi Netanyahu that the Iranian regime was on its last legs after major protests in January and riding on his Venezuelan success after the daring raid that snatched Nicolas Maduro, Trump began a new war with Iran in February that was supposed to last only four to six weeks. Nearly six months later, the conflict continues after the collapse of two ceasefires. Iran still controls the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which a fifth of the world’s energy and other key exports transit, while its ally, the Yemeni Houthis, have attacked Saudi oil tankers seeking passage through the region’s other maritime chokepoint, the Bab el-Mandab.

Once again, oil prices have touched $100 a barrel at a time when global reserves are rapidly depleting. Consumers in developed nations rail against rising inflation while the impact on citizens of poorer countries is even more devastating. 

As of this writing, the ambiguous Memorandum of Understanding that was supposed to lead to permanent peace negotiations is in tatters. However, the Trump administration has paused nightly strikes on Iran after 12 days, and Iran has suspended retaliatory bombing that damaged infrastructure in Bahrain and Kuwait and killed American soldiers in Jordan and Iraq.

It is still possible for the Trump administration to find a way out, but Iran will not make it easy. The first job is to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz through a mutually acceptable process. If a new body to approve movement down the Strait is created, Iran must be included. This body could also include a representative of the International Maritime Organization and of Oman, whose early U.S.-backed efforts to create another channel hugging the Omani coast triggered a violent response by the Islamic Republic.

To achieve this, negotiators will need to clarify the ambiguous language in the MoU that entitles Iran “to make arrangements … for the safe passage of commercial vessels” through the Strait without specifying how. Iran will also likely insist on receiving a portion of its frozen assets, perhaps initially $6 billion held by Qatar since a previous deal with the Biden administration led to freedom for five U.S. dual nationals in September 2023. The U.S. paused the agreement after the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel. The Trump administration included unfreezing the funds in the MoU.

If the Strait can be reopened, that development would provide a basis for the wider negotiations called for in the agreement, in particular, about Iran’s nuclear program. U.S. demands that Iran give up a stockpile of highly enriched uranium and renounce domestic uranium enrichment have been undercut, however, by the Trump administration’s reported deal to possibly give the same technology to Saudi Arabia without the “gold standard” safeguards insisted on by prior U.S. presidents. One solution that has often been discussed is a regional enrichment facility under international supervision that could supply the legitimate needs of civilian programs and prevent diversion to military use.

It is hard to envision an end to the long enmity between the U.S. and Iran — at least as long as Donald Trump is president and the Islamic Republic remains in power. The war has killed thousands of Iranians, including schoolgirls, and caused billions of dollars in damage to infrastructure, as well as the deaths of 18 U.S. service personnel and the wounding of hundreds. However, Trump and his Republican party need an exit from the Iran trap, Americans want lower gasoline prices, and the long-suffering people of Iran need relief from economic crisis and war. Regional allies who have seen their ambitious post-oil development plans disrupted also desire a restoration of stability and calm.

The Trump administration should appoint experienced diplomats and seek a new agreement that is clear and fair. No one will emerge a victor from the current conflict, and the sooner it ends, the better.

Header image: President of the United States Donald Trump. By Gage Skidmore