Editor’s Note: Yusuf Can is a Washington-based analyst with expertise in Middle Eastern affairs, Turkish politics, and regional economics. At the Wilson Center’s Middle East Program, he led research and editorial efforts, curating expert commentary and briefing U.S. and international policymakers on trends in the MENA region. His work spans geopolitical shifts, energy cooperation and diplomacy, with a strong record of collaboration with embassies, think tanks, and multilateral institutions. A frequent media commentator, he has been featured in outlets such as The Guardian, BBC, and Politico. Yusuf holds a Master’s degree in Government from Georgetown University and is originally from Istanbul. This is his first piece for Stimson.
By Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow, Middle East Perspectives
On March 19, Turkey’s most prominent opposition figure, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, along with many of his associates in the Republican People’s Party (CHP), were arrested in a raid on charges widely viewed as politically motivated. The arrest marked a major escalation in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s long crackdown on dissent, a campaign that seems aimed at destroying pluralism, if not democracy itself in Turkey.
Official accusations — that İmamoğlu may have engaged in graft and aided terrorism by allegedly talking with Kurdish militants — are viewed by the Turkish opposition and many outside Turkey as having little merit. Opposition leaders blasted the move as a civil coup against the popular mayor and the will of Turkish voters.
Just hours before the arrest, İmamoğlu’s 31-year-old university degree was retroactively annulled to invalidate his eligibility to run for president, since Turkish law requires candidates to hold a degree. These events left little doubt that Erdoğan is weaponizing the judiciary to eliminate his strongest competitor in elections scheduled for 2028. Human Rights Watch condemned the detentions as a “flagrant abuse of the justice system” and part of a pattern of politicized investigations targeting the opposition.
The Erdoğan government insists the courts acted independently, but few in Turkey believe it.
Far from cowing the opposition, İmamoğlu’s imprisonment ignited an outpouring of public anger. Within hours, spontaneous demonstrations erupted in Istanbul and cities across Turkey. These rapidly swelled into the largest anti-government protests in Turkey in more than a decade. Since March 20, masses of citizens have flooded the streets daily, chanting pro-democracy slogans, waving Turkish flags, and demanding İmamoğlu’s release.
The demonstrations have included secular republicans, farmers, socialist parties, as well as nationalist and working-class youth and middle-class professionals. Tellingly, some former supporters of Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) have joined. Istanbul and Üsküdar council member Ekrem Baki, a member of the AKP, resigned, citing the escalating crackdown. Such unity across Turkey’s political divides suggests İmamoğlu’s jailing was the lightning rod for accumulated frustrations not only over growing authoritarianism, but also over daily hardships.
Erdoğan dismissed the protests and warned that participants would pay a price, a warning he followed through on with forceful policing. Riot police in Istanbul, Ankara, and other cities have used pepper spray, water cannons, and rubber bullets to disperse crowds. One week in, nearly 2,000 demonstrators had been detained nationwide. Images of police in full riot gear chasing and clubbing unarmed protesters, including students who simply tried to march on campuses, underscored the government’s zero-tolerance approach. Journalists weren’t spared. At least seven local reporters were detained while covering the protests. A BBC correspondent was deported as a “threat to public order” for reporting on the unrest. Meanwhile, online censorship escalated as Elon Musk’s X restricted visibility and access to opposition voices, including İmamoğlu’s own account within Turkey, upon Ankara’s request, further tightening the government’s control.
On the same weekend that İmamoğlu was arrested, two more CHP district mayors in Istanbul were detained, bringing the total to six CHP mayors arrested or otherwise removed since late 2024. Authorities attempted to replace them with loyalists, a tactic also used against Kurdish-run municipalities. This time, however, rather than retreating, the opposition rallied. CHP leaders, once criticized for excessive caution, are now leading mass protests, staging weekly rallies across Istanbul and rural cities such as Erdogan strongholds like Yozgat and Konya and launching economic boycotts against Erdoğan-affiliated corporations.
Internationally, İmamoğlu’s arrest has elicited condemnations from many Western governments, human rights organizations, and international media. The European Commission reminded Turkey of its obligations as an EU candidate and a Council of Europe member, emphasizing that democratic backsliding is incompatible with membership aspirations. Germany condemned the arrest as unacceptable and summoned the Turkish ambassador for an explanation. France went further, cancelling the sale of Eurofighter jets to Ankara, while Greece postponed a high-level meeting in protest. Erdoğan’s recent efforts to rekindle EU relations have stalled.
The U.S. responded more cautiously. While early comments framed it as an internal matter, Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged U.S. concern. However, President Trump’s close personal relationship with his Turkish counterpart, who spoke to Trump by phone on May 5, suggests that the U.S. is more interested in Ankara as a potentially useful instrument in Ukraine, Syria and Gaza than in the state of Turkish democracy. European leaders also appear hesitant to provoke a full rupture with a fellow NATO member.
Economic Turmoil
İmamoğlu’s imprisonment has plunged Turkey into one of its most turbulent and dark chapters. Beyond the upswell of citizen activism and anger, the country’s economic downturn adds an extra layer of volatility.
İmamoğlu’s arrest triggered a sharp market crash, with the lira hitting record lows and the stock index plunging nearly 9 percent in the following few days. This prompted the Turkish Central Bank to sell approximately $50 billion in foreign reserves to stabilize the currency. If the downturn persists, Erdoğan will be forced to seek international financial support, potentially giving institutions like the IMF or European lenders leverage to demand governance-related conditions. As the economy falters under the weight of political instability, Erdoğan must decide whether crushing the opposition will keep him secure or erode what is left of Turkey’s democratic foundations.
The persistence of protests and organized opposition suggests that the spirit of democracy in Turkey is wounded but not defeated. If Erdoğan doubles down and the world looks away, Turkey may complete its transformation into one-man rule. But if the opposition’s resolve holds and international pressure quietly mounts, it could galvanize a democratic revival in Turkey and perhaps have a ripple effect on other countries. The world would do well to pay attention to the battle playing out in Istanbul’s streets as part of a much larger contest for the survival of global democracy.
Battle for Democracy Plays Out in the Streets of Turkey
By Yusuf Can
Middle East & North Africa
Editor’s Note: Yusuf Can is a Washington-based analyst with expertise in Middle Eastern affairs, Turkish politics, and regional economics. At the Wilson Center’s Middle East Program, he led research and editorial efforts, curating expert commentary and briefing U.S. and international policymakers on trends in the MENA region. His work spans geopolitical shifts, energy cooperation and diplomacy, with a strong record of collaboration with embassies, think tanks, and multilateral institutions. A frequent media commentator, he has been featured in outlets such as The Guardian, BBC, and Politico. Yusuf holds a Master’s degree in Government from Georgetown University and is originally from Istanbul. This is his first piece for Stimson.
By Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow, Middle East Perspectives
On March 19, Turkey’s most prominent opposition figure, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, along with many of his associates in the Republican People’s Party (CHP), were arrested in a raid on charges widely viewed as politically motivated. The arrest marked a major escalation in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s long crackdown on dissent, a campaign that seems aimed at destroying pluralism, if not democracy itself in Turkey.
Official accusations — that İmamoğlu may have engaged in graft and aided terrorism by allegedly talking with Kurdish militants — are viewed by the Turkish opposition and many outside Turkey as having little merit. Opposition leaders blasted the move as a civil coup against the popular mayor and the will of Turkish voters.
Just hours before the arrest, İmamoğlu’s 31-year-old university degree was retroactively annulled to invalidate his eligibility to run for president, since Turkish law requires candidates to hold a degree. These events left little doubt that Erdoğan is weaponizing the judiciary to eliminate his strongest competitor in elections scheduled for 2028. Human Rights Watch condemned the detentions as a “flagrant abuse of the justice system” and part of a pattern of politicized investigations targeting the opposition.
The Erdoğan government insists the courts acted independently, but few in Turkey believe it.
Far from cowing the opposition, İmamoğlu’s imprisonment ignited an outpouring of public anger. Within hours, spontaneous demonstrations erupted in Istanbul and cities across Turkey. These rapidly swelled into the largest anti-government protests in Turkey in more than a decade. Since March 20, masses of citizens have flooded the streets daily, chanting pro-democracy slogans, waving Turkish flags, and demanding İmamoğlu’s release.
The demonstrations have included secular republicans, farmers, socialist parties, as well as nationalist and working-class youth and middle-class professionals. Tellingly, some former supporters of Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) have joined. Istanbul and Üsküdar council member Ekrem Baki, a member of the AKP, resigned, citing the escalating crackdown. Such unity across Turkey’s political divides suggests İmamoğlu’s jailing was the lightning rod for accumulated frustrations not only over growing authoritarianism, but also over daily hardships.
Erdoğan dismissed the protests and warned that participants would pay a price, a warning he followed through on with forceful policing. Riot police in Istanbul, Ankara, and other cities have used pepper spray, water cannons, and rubber bullets to disperse crowds. One week in, nearly 2,000 demonstrators had been detained nationwide. Images of police in full riot gear chasing and clubbing unarmed protesters, including students who simply tried to march on campuses, underscored the government’s zero-tolerance approach. Journalists weren’t spared. At least seven local reporters were detained while covering the protests. A BBC correspondent was deported as a “threat to public order” for reporting on the unrest. Meanwhile, online censorship escalated as Elon Musk’s X restricted visibility and access to opposition voices, including İmamoğlu’s own account within Turkey, upon Ankara’s request, further tightening the government’s control.
On the same weekend that İmamoğlu was arrested, two more CHP district mayors in Istanbul were detained, bringing the total to six CHP mayors arrested or otherwise removed since late 2024. Authorities attempted to replace them with loyalists, a tactic also used against Kurdish-run municipalities. This time, however, rather than retreating, the opposition rallied. CHP leaders, once criticized for excessive caution, are now leading mass protests, staging weekly rallies across Istanbul and rural cities such as Erdogan strongholds like Yozgat and Konya and launching economic boycotts against Erdoğan-affiliated corporations.
Internationally, İmamoğlu’s arrest has elicited condemnations from many Western governments, human rights organizations, and international media. The European Commission reminded Turkey of its obligations as an EU candidate and a Council of Europe member, emphasizing that democratic backsliding is incompatible with membership aspirations. Germany condemned the arrest as unacceptable and summoned the Turkish ambassador for an explanation. France went further, cancelling the sale of Eurofighter jets to Ankara, while Greece postponed a high-level meeting in protest. Erdoğan’s recent efforts to rekindle EU relations have stalled.
The U.S. responded more cautiously. While early comments framed it as an internal matter, Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged U.S. concern. However, President Trump’s close personal relationship with his Turkish counterpart, who spoke to Trump by phone on May 5, suggests that the U.S. is more interested in Ankara as a potentially useful instrument in Ukraine, Syria and Gaza than in the state of Turkish democracy. European leaders also appear hesitant to provoke a full rupture with a fellow NATO member.
Economic Turmoil
İmamoğlu’s imprisonment has plunged Turkey into one of its most turbulent and dark chapters. Beyond the upswell of citizen activism and anger, the country’s economic downturn adds an extra layer of volatility.
İmamoğlu’s arrest triggered a sharp market crash, with the lira hitting record lows and the stock index plunging nearly 9 percent in the following few days. This prompted the Turkish Central Bank to sell approximately $50 billion in foreign reserves to stabilize the currency. If the downturn persists, Erdoğan will be forced to seek international financial support, potentially giving institutions like the IMF or European lenders leverage to demand governance-related conditions. As the economy falters under the weight of political instability, Erdoğan must decide whether crushing the opposition will keep him secure or erode what is left of Turkey’s democratic foundations.
The persistence of protests and organized opposition suggests that the spirit of democracy in Turkey is wounded but not defeated. If Erdoğan doubles down and the world looks away, Turkey may complete its transformation into one-man rule. But if the opposition’s resolve holds and international pressure quietly mounts, it could galvanize a democratic revival in Turkey and perhaps have a ripple effect on other countries. The world would do well to pay attention to the battle playing out in Istanbul’s streets as part of a much larger contest for the survival of global democracy.
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