Vladimir Lenin’s adage, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen” epitomizes the extent to which the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel a year ago upended the status quo in the Middle East.
What started as an unprecedented, stunning, horrific assault by Hamas and at least four other Palestinian armed groups on Israeli kibbutzim and young concertgoers, has turned into a direct war between archfoes Israel, Iran, and its proxies and allies. Meanwhile, the root cause of the problem, the Palestinian issue, seems further from resolution while an unfathomable humanitarian disaster in Gaza worsens, Israeli hostages remain captive, conflict widens in the West Bank, and war again begins to consume Lebanon.
The ongoing Israeli decapitation of Hezbollah’s top leaders, especially the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, and the tit-for-tat retaliation between Israel and Iran mark a continuation of the erosion of redline politics as had been known in the region for decades. Only a few lines are left to be crossed including arguably the most dangerous — Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities and critical economic infrastructure, and Iranian retaliation against critical Israeli infrastructure and cities, which would take the war into a new and even more dangerous phase.
Since October 7, 2023, the widespread destruction in Gaza and repeated failures to protect civilians has hastened the decline of a U.S.-led liberal rules-based order – a degradation which could produce global, transformative ripple effects on future wars, human rights, and the notion of a “responsibility to protect” (R2P) enshrined by the UN in 2005.
While the failure of international diplomacy to solve the Palestinian issue, the decay of the Palestinian authority, and Israel’s blockade of Gaza all contributed to Hamas’s decision to stage such a horrific attack, Hamas also bears a big responsibility for the suffering of the Gazans. Weeks after October 7, Mousa Abu Marzouk, deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau, said the organization was not responsible for the population of Gaza since the majority are refugees and thus, the UN’s responsibility to protect even though Hamas has been the governing body of the enclave since ejecting the Palestinian Authority in June 2007.
The Palestinian writer Majed Kayali, who has written extensively about the failure of Palestinian groups to critically reflect about the pros and cons of the armed struggle, highlights disastrous miscalculations by Hamas in the run up to last October 7. First, an inflated self-image that exaggerates its own power and belittles that of Israel to the point of calling it, as Nasrallah did in 2000, weaker than “a spider’s web.” Second, an emotional, religious belief that “angels” and the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” would support its war with Israel. Third, a failure to differentiate between legitimate resistance to occupation that could take different forms and a conventional war between armies. Fourth, a total disregard for the balance of power, regional and international context and support for Israel. And finally, a disregard for the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition partners have been waiting for the opportunity to decimate Hamas and Hezbollah and end any notion that Israel would have to make territorial concessions to the Palestinians.
Israel’s intelligence superiority and military might, supported by the U.S. and other Western powers, is again in full display. It is unlikely Israel will stop its attacks on Lebanon and Syria until it achieves its goal of incapacitating Hezbollah and cutting the transport of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah through Syria. Hezbollah and Iran will not surrender, knowing Netanyahu’s strategy is the decimation of Hezbollah and rolling back Iran’s regional reach.
The ongoing Israeli assassination of top Hezbollah leaders and Iranian commanders, as well as the pager and walkie-talkie explosions in Beirut, demonstrate the unprecedented capacity of Israeli intelligence — supported by the U.S. — to penetrate the command-and-control and communication structures of its enemies. Netanyahu appears bullish, looking for total victory and once again dreaming – along with U.S. hawks and neoconservatives — of establishing a “New Middle East” that minimizes Iran’s reach and creates a durable alliance with Sunni Arab states.
However, if there is one thing the history of the region teaches, it is the danger of strategic overreach. Just as Hamas has faced grave retribution for its horrific attacks on October 7, Iran’s projection of power through proxies to the point of taking pride in controlling four Arab capitals is backfiring. Iran’s forward defense doctrine, nurtured over four decades, also faces a moment of reckoning. Iran and Hezbollah are exposed, vulnerable, weakened but not defeated. Iran and Hezbollah haven’t yet used all the advanced weapons they possess, and they can still cause considerable damage to Israel. There are extremely high risks for miscalculations and unintended damage with grave consequences for all as a result of the “ballistic missile ping-pong” between Iran and Israel. Iran’s Houthi allies can continue to disrupt trade and shipping in the Red Sea with consequences for the global economy. Finally, with Hezbollah decapitated, Iran may dash for the bomb, a development that will further destabilize the region and intensify a regional nuclear arms race.
In the current tit-for-tat, with the U.S. preoccupied by upcoming elections and failing to exert decisive leadership to de-escalate the situation, what awaits the region is not the blessed future envisioned by Netanyahu but rather an Israel engaged in endless war, facing further global isolation and dragging the U.S. down with it. In this dystopian day after, Gaza is reduced to a refugee “super camp” and large parts of Lebanon lie in ruins. It doesn’t take too much imagination to conclude that such a situation will only produce more fanaticism, death and destruction for all.
There is an alternative in which Palestinians get statehood and Israelis get security. But glimmers of hope such as a Saudi-led global coalition to establish a Palestinian state and a joint peace proposal by former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and former Palestinian foreign affairs minister Nasser al-Kidwa need urgent global and regional support.
Kawa Hassan is a Nonresident Fellow with Stimson’s Middle East program, a consultant on Middle East affairs, and an Iraq expert with the NATO Communications and Information Agency. He previously served as Executive Director of Stimson Europe, Director of the MENA Program & Senior Fellow, Vice President of the MENA Program, Director EU Office, EastWest Institute (EWI) where he led Track 2 diplomacy, policy research, and advocacy initiatives on mediation and conflict resolution.
How October 7 Transformed the Middle East
By Kawa Hassan
Middle East & North Africa
Vladimir Lenin’s adage, “There are decades where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen” epitomizes the extent to which the Hamas-led attack on southern Israel a year ago upended the status quo in the Middle East.
What started as an unprecedented, stunning, horrific assault by Hamas and at least four other Palestinian armed groups on Israeli kibbutzim and young concertgoers, has turned into a direct war between archfoes Israel, Iran, and its proxies and allies. Meanwhile, the root cause of the problem, the Palestinian issue, seems further from resolution while an unfathomable humanitarian disaster in Gaza worsens, Israeli hostages remain captive, conflict widens in the West Bank, and war again begins to consume Lebanon.
The ongoing Israeli decapitation of Hezbollah’s top leaders, especially the assassination of its leader Hassan Nasrallah, and the tit-for-tat retaliation between Israel and Iran mark a continuation of the erosion of redline politics as had been known in the region for decades. Only a few lines are left to be crossed including arguably the most dangerous — Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities and critical economic infrastructure, and Iranian retaliation against critical Israeli infrastructure and cities, which would take the war into a new and even more dangerous phase.
Since October 7, 2023, the widespread destruction in Gaza and repeated failures to protect civilians has hastened the decline of a U.S.-led liberal rules-based order – a degradation which could produce global, transformative ripple effects on future wars, human rights, and the notion of a “responsibility to protect” (R2P) enshrined by the UN in 2005.
While the failure of international diplomacy to solve the Palestinian issue, the decay of the Palestinian authority, and Israel’s blockade of Gaza all contributed to Hamas’s decision to stage such a horrific attack, Hamas also bears a big responsibility for the suffering of the Gazans. Weeks after October 7, Mousa Abu Marzouk, deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau, said the organization was not responsible for the population of Gaza since the majority are refugees and thus, the UN’s responsibility to protect even though Hamas has been the governing body of the enclave since ejecting the Palestinian Authority in June 2007.
The Palestinian writer Majed Kayali, who has written extensively about the failure of Palestinian groups to critically reflect about the pros and cons of the armed struggle, highlights disastrous miscalculations by Hamas in the run up to last October 7. First, an inflated self-image that exaggerates its own power and belittles that of Israel to the point of calling it, as Nasrallah did in 2000, weaker than “a spider’s web.” Second, an emotional, religious belief that “angels” and the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” would support its war with Israel. Third, a failure to differentiate between legitimate resistance to occupation that could take different forms and a conventional war between armies. Fourth, a total disregard for the balance of power, regional and international context and support for Israel. And finally, a disregard for the fact that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing coalition partners have been waiting for the opportunity to decimate Hamas and Hezbollah and end any notion that Israel would have to make territorial concessions to the Palestinians.
Israel’s intelligence superiority and military might, supported by the U.S. and other Western powers, is again in full display. It is unlikely Israel will stop its attacks on Lebanon and Syria until it achieves its goal of incapacitating Hezbollah and cutting the transport of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah through Syria. Hezbollah and Iran will not surrender, knowing Netanyahu’s strategy is the decimation of Hezbollah and rolling back Iran’s regional reach.
The ongoing Israeli assassination of top Hezbollah leaders and Iranian commanders, as well as the pager and walkie-talkie explosions in Beirut, demonstrate the unprecedented capacity of Israeli intelligence — supported by the U.S. — to penetrate the command-and-control and communication structures of its enemies. Netanyahu appears bullish, looking for total victory and once again dreaming – along with U.S. hawks and neoconservatives — of establishing a “New Middle East” that minimizes Iran’s reach and creates a durable alliance with Sunni Arab states.
However, if there is one thing the history of the region teaches, it is the danger of strategic overreach. Just as Hamas has faced grave retribution for its horrific attacks on October 7, Iran’s projection of power through proxies to the point of taking pride in controlling four Arab capitals is backfiring. Iran’s forward defense doctrine, nurtured over four decades, also faces a moment of reckoning. Iran and Hezbollah are exposed, vulnerable, weakened but not defeated. Iran and Hezbollah haven’t yet used all the advanced weapons they possess, and they can still cause considerable damage to Israel. There are extremely high risks for miscalculations and unintended damage with grave consequences for all as a result of the “ballistic missile ping-pong” between Iran and Israel. Iran’s Houthi allies can continue to disrupt trade and shipping in the Red Sea with consequences for the global economy. Finally, with Hezbollah decapitated, Iran may dash for the bomb, a development that will further destabilize the region and intensify a regional nuclear arms race.
In the current tit-for-tat, with the U.S. preoccupied by upcoming elections and failing to exert decisive leadership to de-escalate the situation, what awaits the region is not the blessed future envisioned by Netanyahu but rather an Israel engaged in endless war, facing further global isolation and dragging the U.S. down with it. In this dystopian day after, Gaza is reduced to a refugee “super camp” and large parts of Lebanon lie in ruins. It doesn’t take too much imagination to conclude that such a situation will only produce more fanaticism, death and destruction for all.
There is an alternative in which Palestinians get statehood and Israelis get security. But glimmers of hope such as a Saudi-led global coalition to establish a Palestinian state and a joint peace proposal by former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and former Palestinian foreign affairs minister Nasser al-Kidwa need urgent global and regional support.
Kawa Hassan is a Nonresident Fellow with Stimson’s Middle East program, a consultant on Middle East affairs, and an Iraq expert with the NATO Communications and Information Agency. He previously served as Executive Director of Stimson Europe, Director of the MENA Program & Senior Fellow, Vice President of the MENA Program, Director EU Office, EastWest Institute (EWI) where he led Track 2 diplomacy, policy research, and advocacy initiatives on mediation and conflict resolution.
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