The center of gravity in Europe’s response to the ongoing war in Gaza has moved from Brussels to European national capitals.
On May 22, Spain, Ireland, and Norway – a non-European Union country – announced that they will recognize Palestine as a state as of today, May 28.
Meanwhile, the room for consensual decisions at the EU level seems to have been exhausted – at least temporarily. In April, the EU agreed for the first time to call for a ceasefire in Gaza. European leaders also decided to impose sanctions on four Israeli settlers and two settler entities over violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.
But the consensus appears to have ended here. In February 2024, Spain and Ireland asked the European Commission to review its Association Agreement with Israel, which facilitates bilateral relations in areas such as trade and scientific exchanges and contains a human rights clause.
The bilateral agreement holds significant importance for Israel, which sends around 30% of its exports to the EU. The proposal to review the agreement was initially halted by at least six EU member countries, among them Germany and Italy, but on Monday, EU foreign affairs ministers agreed to convene an Association Council to discuss Israel’s human rights obligations. It is not clear that Israel will attend, and the discussion could drag on for months. Although the EU could theoretically suspend the Association Agreement, this appears highly unlikely. Monday’s meeting also showed there is no agreement on sanctions against Israel.
After the joint call in April for a ceasefire and the imposition of limited sanctions on settlers, Brussels appears to have reached an impasse. It is important to note that the EU has entered a pre-election scenario that will culminate in elections to the European Parliament starting on June 6. The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has been on the campaign trail, along with other members of the Commission.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has clashed with von der Leyen over Europe’s response to the war in Gaza since the first weeks of the conflict. The gap has only grown wider, with the Spanish diplomat demanding a more critical approach towards Israel. Borrell is not expected to stay in his position after the EU elections, but von der Leyen appears to have a good chance of remaining the head of the Commission.
The shift of momentum from Brussels to European national capitals started in April when Spanish President Pedro Sánchez began a diplomatic tour to coordinate Spain’s recognition of Palestine with other countries and maximize the impact of the decision. After traveling to the Middle East, Sánchez visited Norway and Ireland before heading to Slovenia. The diplomatic efforts were successful as the governments of Ireland and Norway joined Spain in announcing they would recognize Palestine.
Simon Harris, the Taoiseach, or prime minister of Ireland emphasized his country’s own struggle for independence in his speech explaining the decision to recognize Palestine. The Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre noted that in the three decades since his country hosted the Oslo Accords, Norway and many of its international partners had favored an approach in which recognition of Palestine as a state would follow a peace process. But now, Norway “could no longer wait for the conflict to be resolved” before recognition, said Støre.
Sánchez defended a similar position in front of the Spanish parliament on May 22, although he was more specific. He remarked that “with [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, a two-state solution is in danger. The solution he has promoted only leads to hatred.” The Spanish leader also doubled down on a message he has consistently repeated, namely that Europe needs to act decisively regarding the war in Gaza if it wants to avoid double standard accusations when defending Ukraine from Russia’s invasion.
Spain, Ireland, and Norway kept the United States informed about their intentions and there was no major reaction from Washington. The same cannot be said about Israel, which recalled its ambassadors to the three countries.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz accused Spain, Ireland, and Norway of giving “a gold medal to the murderers and rapists of Hamas.” The minister would later announce on X (formerly Twitter) that Spain is no longer permitted to provide consular services to Palestinians in Jerusalem, adding that “those who harm us, we will harm in return.”
Slovenia welcomed the announcements recognizing Palestine and is expected to do the same soon. The case of Belgium is more uncertain. The Belgian government has been holding the rotating presidency of the EU during the first half of the year and might have wanted to have a mediating role on the matter among European countries.
Belgium is also holding national elections together with the European elections in early June, adding further uncertainty about an eventual recognition of Palestine. The current Belgian government was one of the first to call for a ceasefire in Gaza and had a short diplomatic spat with the Israeli government in November 2023, after Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo alongside Sánchez criticized Israel’s war conduct in Gaza. Two other countries rumored to be close to recognizing Palestine are Malta and Luxembourg.
Far more relevant would be France’s recognition of Palestine, given that France is the only EU country with a seat on the UN Security Council. Although French President Emmanuel Macron remarked in February 2024 for the first time that recognizing Palestine “is not taboo,” Foreign Minister Stephane Séjourné later took distance from Spain, Ireland, and Norway.
Until recently, most EU members recognizing Palestine were Eastern European countries that took the step in 1988 when they still belonged to the Soviet bloc. Ironically, some of these countries, such as Hungary and the Czech Republic, are now among the staunchest supporters of Israel within the EU.
This started to change with Sweden’s recognition of Palestine in 2014, with Stockholm arguing that it was acting to confirm “the Palestinians’ right to self-determination” and show the way to others. In the current context, recognition has become an expression of some European countries’ frustration with the limited space for a critical position toward Israel within the EU framework, where consensus is required for any major decision.
Recognizing Palestine stops short of more drastic measures such as cutting economic ties with Israel. Norway, for instance, could have stopped investment into Israel by the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund.
There are similar alignments within the EU when it comes to responding to some of the main developments regarding the war in Gaza. The countries recognizing Palestine or rumored to be ready to do so are also the ones that kept funding the UN Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) after Israeli accusations in January that a dozen of UNRWA’s personnel had participated in the October 7 Hamas attack. Germany – the second largest contributor to UNRWA after the US in 2022 – and Italy – among the top 15 donors – only resumed contributions after a UN review of the accusations.
Similarly, the EU countries that did not stop funding UNRWA are also generally those that accepted without caveats last week’s decision by Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), to apply for arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
France reacted to Khan’s decision by defending the ICC’s independence and remarking that it had long warned about the “unacceptable” number of civilians killed in Gaza. Meanwhile, countries such as Austria and Germany said they respect the work of the ICC but that the court had established a false moral equivalence between Israel and Hamas by applying for the arrest warrants of three Hamas leaders together with those for Netanyahu and Gallant.
The question of whether Netanyahu would be arrested on European soil remains purely theoretical as there is neither a detention order against him nor is he likely to visit Europe soon. However, the topic has already generated heated debate. After the German government announced that it would abide by the decision of the ICC, the chief of the opposition criticized the government.
The latest decision by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordering Israel to “immediately halt its military offensive in Rafah” is unlikely to produce the same controversy in Europe. Most EU countries have already explicitly opposed an attack against Rafah.
The recognition of Palestine by Spain, Ireland, and Norway leaves many questions unanswered. How to establish a viable Palestinian state in the face of Israel’s expanding occupation in the West Bank, humanitarian collapse in Gaza, and intra-Palestinian division? The value of recognition is mainly symbolic, but this does not necessarily mean it is inconsequential. Israel’s irate response to the three countries’ decision can be seen as proof of this.
Marc Martorell Junyent holds an MA in Comparative and Middle East Politics and Society from Tübingen University. He is a writer and researcher whose work has appeared in The New Arab, Jacobin, Responsible Statecraft, Democracy in Exile, and other publications.
After Three European Countries Recognize Palestine, What’s Next?
By Marc Martorell Junyent
Middle East & North Africa
The center of gravity in Europe’s response to the ongoing war in Gaza has moved from Brussels to European national capitals.
On May 22, Spain, Ireland, and Norway – a non-European Union country – announced that they will recognize Palestine as a state as of today, May 28.
Meanwhile, the room for consensual decisions at the EU level seems to have been exhausted – at least temporarily. In April, the EU agreed for the first time to call for a ceasefire in Gaza. European leaders also decided to impose sanctions on four Israeli settlers and two settler entities over violence against Palestinians in the West Bank.
But the consensus appears to have ended here. In February 2024, Spain and Ireland asked the European Commission to review its Association Agreement with Israel, which facilitates bilateral relations in areas such as trade and scientific exchanges and contains a human rights clause.
The bilateral agreement holds significant importance for Israel, which sends around 30% of its exports to the EU. The proposal to review the agreement was initially halted by at least six EU member countries, among them Germany and Italy, but on Monday, EU foreign affairs ministers agreed to convene an Association Council to discuss Israel’s human rights obligations. It is not clear that Israel will attend, and the discussion could drag on for months. Although the EU could theoretically suspend the Association Agreement, this appears highly unlikely. Monday’s meeting also showed there is no agreement on sanctions against Israel.
After the joint call in April for a ceasefire and the imposition of limited sanctions on settlers, Brussels appears to have reached an impasse. It is important to note that the EU has entered a pre-election scenario that will culminate in elections to the European Parliament starting on June 6. The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen has been on the campaign trail, along with other members of the Commission.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has clashed with von der Leyen over Europe’s response to the war in Gaza since the first weeks of the conflict. The gap has only grown wider, with the Spanish diplomat demanding a more critical approach towards Israel. Borrell is not expected to stay in his position after the EU elections, but von der Leyen appears to have a good chance of remaining the head of the Commission.
The shift of momentum from Brussels to European national capitals started in April when Spanish President Pedro Sánchez began a diplomatic tour to coordinate Spain’s recognition of Palestine with other countries and maximize the impact of the decision. After traveling to the Middle East, Sánchez visited Norway and Ireland before heading to Slovenia. The diplomatic efforts were successful as the governments of Ireland and Norway joined Spain in announcing they would recognize Palestine.
Simon Harris, the Taoiseach, or prime minister of Ireland emphasized his country’s own struggle for independence in his speech explaining the decision to recognize Palestine. The Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre noted that in the three decades since his country hosted the Oslo Accords, Norway and many of its international partners had favored an approach in which recognition of Palestine as a state would follow a peace process. But now, Norway “could no longer wait for the conflict to be resolved” before recognition, said Støre.
Sánchez defended a similar position in front of the Spanish parliament on May 22, although he was more specific. He remarked that “with [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu, a two-state solution is in danger. The solution he has promoted only leads to hatred.” The Spanish leader also doubled down on a message he has consistently repeated, namely that Europe needs to act decisively regarding the war in Gaza if it wants to avoid double standard accusations when defending Ukraine from Russia’s invasion.
Spain, Ireland, and Norway kept the United States informed about their intentions and there was no major reaction from Washington. The same cannot be said about Israel, which recalled its ambassadors to the three countries.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz accused Spain, Ireland, and Norway of giving “a gold medal to the murderers and rapists of Hamas.” The minister would later announce on X (formerly Twitter) that Spain is no longer permitted to provide consular services to Palestinians in Jerusalem, adding that “those who harm us, we will harm in return.”
Slovenia welcomed the announcements recognizing Palestine and is expected to do the same soon. The case of Belgium is more uncertain. The Belgian government has been holding the rotating presidency of the EU during the first half of the year and might have wanted to have a mediating role on the matter among European countries.
Belgium is also holding national elections together with the European elections in early June, adding further uncertainty about an eventual recognition of Palestine. The current Belgian government was one of the first to call for a ceasefire in Gaza and had a short diplomatic spat with the Israeli government in November 2023, after Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo alongside Sánchez criticized Israel’s war conduct in Gaza. Two other countries rumored to be close to recognizing Palestine are Malta and Luxembourg.
Far more relevant would be France’s recognition of Palestine, given that France is the only EU country with a seat on the UN Security Council. Although French President Emmanuel Macron remarked in February 2024 for the first time that recognizing Palestine “is not taboo,” Foreign Minister Stephane Séjourné later took distance from Spain, Ireland, and Norway.
Until recently, most EU members recognizing Palestine were Eastern European countries that took the step in 1988 when they still belonged to the Soviet bloc. Ironically, some of these countries, such as Hungary and the Czech Republic, are now among the staunchest supporters of Israel within the EU.
This started to change with Sweden’s recognition of Palestine in 2014, with Stockholm arguing that it was acting to confirm “the Palestinians’ right to self-determination” and show the way to others. In the current context, recognition has become an expression of some European countries’ frustration with the limited space for a critical position toward Israel within the EU framework, where consensus is required for any major decision.
Recognizing Palestine stops short of more drastic measures such as cutting economic ties with Israel. Norway, for instance, could have stopped investment into Israel by the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund.
There are similar alignments within the EU when it comes to responding to some of the main developments regarding the war in Gaza. The countries recognizing Palestine or rumored to be ready to do so are also the ones that kept funding the UN Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA) after Israeli accusations in January that a dozen of UNRWA’s personnel had participated in the October 7 Hamas attack. Germany – the second largest contributor to UNRWA after the US in 2022 – and Italy – among the top 15 donors – only resumed contributions after a UN review of the accusations.
Similarly, the EU countries that did not stop funding UNRWA are also generally those that accepted without caveats last week’s decision by Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), to apply for arrest warrants against Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
France reacted to Khan’s decision by defending the ICC’s independence and remarking that it had long warned about the “unacceptable” number of civilians killed in Gaza. Meanwhile, countries such as Austria and Germany said they respect the work of the ICC but that the court had established a false moral equivalence between Israel and Hamas by applying for the arrest warrants of three Hamas leaders together with those for Netanyahu and Gallant.
The question of whether Netanyahu would be arrested on European soil remains purely theoretical as there is neither a detention order against him nor is he likely to visit Europe soon. However, the topic has already generated heated debate. After the German government announced that it would abide by the decision of the ICC, the chief of the opposition criticized the government.
The latest decision by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordering Israel to “immediately halt its military offensive in Rafah” is unlikely to produce the same controversy in Europe. Most EU countries have already explicitly opposed an attack against Rafah.
The recognition of Palestine by Spain, Ireland, and Norway leaves many questions unanswered. How to establish a viable Palestinian state in the face of Israel’s expanding occupation in the West Bank, humanitarian collapse in Gaza, and intra-Palestinian division? The value of recognition is mainly symbolic, but this does not necessarily mean it is inconsequential. Israel’s irate response to the three countries’ decision can be seen as proof of this.
Marc Martorell Junyent holds an MA in Comparative and Middle East Politics and Society from Tübingen University. He is a writer and researcher whose work has appeared in The New Arab, Jacobin, Responsible Statecraft, Democracy in Exile, and other publications.
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