After a long period of speculation about new arms purchases by Iran, decisions have finally been made. According to various media reports, Iran has decided to modernize its air fleet and will receive 24 new Su-35 jets from Russia, with deliveries expected to start in the middle of 2023.

Air Force Commander Brigadier General Hamid Vahedi and Iranian Member of Parliament Shahriyar Heidar confirmed the reports, adding that Iran would also acquire helicopters, defense systems and various missiles from Moscow.

The Russian transfer should not come as a surprise. Russia has long been Iran’s major arms supplier and Iran has returned the favor by providing drones to Russia to use against Ukraine. Iran has previously expressed interest in Russian aircraft, including the Su-30SM and the Su-35, which Russia has used in both Syria and Ukraine. Iran also has seemed interested at times in acquiring Yak-130 advanced jet trainer/light combat jets.

Heavily sanctioned by Western countries for many years, Tehran, for obvious reasons, is unable to obtain jets from a European provider. China might be a plausible supplier but is likely leery about tightening military cooperation with Iran, given Beijing’s strong desire to remain neutral in regional tensions and efforts to get closer to the Arab states of the Persian Gulf.

Iran’s new purchases build on prior acquisitions. The list includes Su-24MK tactical bombers, MiG-29A/UB fighter aircraft, Su-25UBK and Su-22 close support aircraft and Il-76 transport planes. A decision to procure Su-35s is therefore a logical step in purely operational and logistical terms. The Iranians already know Russian military equipment, specifications and working philosophy.

The Su-35s would be the most modern combat aircraft Iran has deployed and the first new aircraft system Tehran has purchased since 1990, when the Islamic Republic procured MiG-29s and Su-24s from the old Soviet Union. It has been reported that Iran will get a batch of Su-35s previously intended for Egypt that were ordered in 2019 but not received due to US pressure.

The Su-35, which made its debut in Dubai in 2003, will certainly be a quantum leap for the Iranian fleet from a technological standpoint. Some analysts, including Daniel Urchick of Aviation Week, argue that Iran will have trouble operating them due to the Su-35’s complexity of maintenance and supply chain. However, the Su-35 is not that advanced, and Iran is a relatively well-developed country with a strong technological base and prior experience with Russian technology.

This does not mean that introducing a new type of aircraft will be easy or fast. A modern aircraft is a system composed of various elements–maintenance base, missiles, radars, avionics, exchange of information etc. — that must be closely integrated. Pilots and technical support have to be trained, and proper infrastructure built. This requires money, time, and knowledge.

The Su-35s are more versatile than Iran’s current force of MiG-29s, which were designed mainly for intercepting other aircraft, and Su-22s and Su-25s, which are suited for engaging ground targets. The Su-35, which is equipped with the Irbis-E radar station, is a multipurpose jet, suitable both for air superiority and ground-attack operations. The Su-35 can reportedly track up to 30 aerial targets simultaneously and engage up to two targets with air-to-air missiles or four targets with air-to-ground missiles.

That Tehran is acquiring such technology and strengthening military ties to a Western adversary that is actively seeking to undermine the rules-based order is hardly good news. At the same time, Iran’s procurement of Su-35s is unlikely to be a regional game changer despite alarmist rhetoric from some in the West.

The Su-35 has PESA (Passive Electronically Scanned Array) radar, while jets used by the United States, Israel and the Arab states in the Persian Gulf have more efficient EASA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radars, which have a much longer range and are more resistant to jamming. There is no reason to believe that the Su-35 is in any way superior to Western aircraft, such as the Rafale or F-16 (in the latest variants), not to mention the F-35, which can detect and attack the Su-35 before it is even spotted by the Russian craft. The West and its allies still hold an undisputed military technological edge that will not be altered by the Iranian acquisition.

Assuming the deliveries are carried out on schedule, they are also likely to be very limited. Given the poor state of Iran’s air fleet – all its aircraft are outdated and should be retired soon – Tehran would have to buy several dozen new planes to achieve a minimum level of conventional air deterrence. Even when all 24 jets are delivered, deployed, and introduced into full operational service — which might take a few years — the United States and combined forces of the Arab states in the Persian Gulf (not to mention Israel) would maintain superiority over Iran. In addition, even the most advanced aircraft is useless without modern missiles, and it remains unclear what and how many missiles Iran will acquire.

From a security point of view, the most disturbing element of the deal is not the aircraft themselves but the reality of growing Russia-Iran cooperation. This “axis of renegade states” has also deepened economic ties and recently announced integration of their banking systems to circumvent Western sanctions. It is very likely that Iran will announce further arms procurements from Russia, deepening both Tehran’s and Moscow’s enmity with the West.

Robert Czulda is an assistant professor at the University of Lodz, Poland and a former visiting professor at Islamic Azad University in Iran, the University of Maryland, and National Cheng-chi University in Taiwan. He is the author of Iran 1925 – 2014: From Reza Shah to Rouhani (2014) and Iran’s Security Policy: Internal and International Dimensions (2022). Follow him on Twitter: @RobertCzulda.