Editor’s Note: Sanda Sandu is a security expert at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Republic of Moldova. She is the co-founder of the Platform for Security and Defence Initiatives and has extensive experience in security-sector governance, disinformation, and human rights. Sandu has authored and coordinated multiple studies on human rights, integrity building, disinformation, and security in Moldova and Eastern Europe, contributed to the development of the National Security Strategy of the Republic of Moldova, and is actively involved in shaping national security policies.
By Rachel Stohl, Director, Conventional Defense Program
Introduction
On September 28, 2025, Moldovan citizens will head to the polls for parliamentary elections that may decide the country’s geopolitical trajectory for a generation. At stake is whether Moldova continues its hard-fought path toward European integration or falls back into Moscow’s sphere of influence. The Kremlin has already invested extraordinary resources to tip the scales. Russian operations, blending financial manipulation, disinformation, provocations, and institutional sabotage, are transforming Moldova into a laboratory for hybrid interference.
For the United States, this matters profoundly. Moldova is not just a small state on the EU’s eastern frontier. It is a testing ground for Russia’s evolving toolkit of coercion, one that includes massive disinformation, illicit financing networks, and targeted societal fragmentation. How Washington and its allies respond will not only determine Moldova’s democratic resilience but also shape the credibility of Western deterrence against Russian interference globally. If Moscow succeeds in Moldova, the lessons learned will be applied elsewhere, including in contexts far more directly consequential for U.S. interests.
Background: Moscow’s Campaign of Electoral Sabotage
Moscow has allocated at least €100 million to operations in Moldova ahead of the 2025 elections, with the real figure likely higher given opaque illicit networks and cryptocurrency flows. These resources fuel a multifaceted campaign aimed at distorting the electoral process, suppressing turnout, and undermining trust in democratic institutions.
The financial machinery is sophisticated. Offshore networks, front parties, and corruption in the justice system funnel resources into electoral manipulation. Ilan Șor, a fugitive oligarch in Moscow, is orchestrating efforts to destabilize by financing protests and laundering Russian funds. Through his ruble-based stablecoin A7A5, money is funneled via black-market exchanges in Turkey, the UAE, and Lebanon before being recycled into Moldovan politics to evade sanctions. Following U.S. sanctions, the coin crashed, helping to disrupt the financial pipeline. Sor has been central in operationalizing these tactics, scaling up vote-buying strategies first tested in Gagauzia to national elections in 2023 and 2024. The goal is clear: establish clientelist control, purchase loyalty, and destabilize institutions that threaten Russian influence.
But Moscow’s campaign is not confined to financial subversion. According to Intelligence Services, Russian operatives have prepared scenarios designed to trigger street unrest. Tactics include arson, hooliganism, false bomb alerts, and cyberattacks all calibrated to overwhelm state institutions and create the perception of dysfunction. Reports suggest that Moldovans received training in Serbia from representatives of the Russian Federation’s special services on behavior, tactics, and methods of attack and resistance against law enforcement.
On Monday, September 22, Moldova Police and security forces conducted 250 searches of more than 100 people. The searches are related to a criminal case into the preparation of mass riots and destabilization, which were coordinated from the Russian Federation. By saturating Moldova’s limited capacity, these activities are meant to delegitimize the government and erode public trust in democratic procedures.
The information domain is even more alarming. Russia has deployed AI-enabled disinformation campaigns that fuse micro-targeting, bot networks, deepfakes, and fabricated news articles. These campaigns are designed for speed, volume, and saturation, overwhelming domestic actors who cannot compete. Young audiences are being targeted on TikTok and drawn into parallel online ecosystems where official communication rarely penetrates. Religious institutions, particularly the Orthodox Church aligned with Moscow, provide logistical infrastructure and legitimacy for pro-Russian messaging, embedding disinformation in local civic life.
Impact: Why Moldova’s Elections Matter Beyond Its Borders
The Kremlin’s operations in Moldova carry implications well beyond Chișinău. They represent a case study in how Russia has adapted its hybrid warfare toolkit for a new era. The campaign showcases Moscow’s ability to integrate financial corruption, disinformation, and potential kinetic action into a synchronized strategy. If successful, this model will be exportable, applied in Georgia, the Balkans, and potentially even within NATO or EU states. Moldova is a proving ground for methods that could later destabilize environments directly tied to U.S. security commitments.
The use of AI-enabled disinformation introduces a new frontier in electoral interference. Moldova is the first known case where Russian operators have systematically targeted adolescents with fake narratives. If these methods prove effective, they could soon be deployed against more resilient democracies, including the United States. The lessons Moscow learns about platform vulnerabilities, narrative engineering, and youth radicalization will inform future interference campaigns elsewhere.
Moldova’s elections are directly tied to European security. If Moscow succeeds in derailing Moldova’s EU accession, it will weaken the Union’s ability to integrate vulnerable states and embolden Russia to escalate in other contested zones. For Washington, which relies on European partners for burden-sharing, the erosion of EU credibility undermines the transatlantic alliance at a critical moment of global contestation.
Moldova’s vulnerability highlights the enduring importance of institutional resilience. Russia’s hybrid campaign exploits weaknesses in judicial independence, oversight capacity, and civic trust. These are precisely the areas where Western support, through technical assistance, financial monitoring, and civil society partnerships, can have the greatest impact. For the United States, investing in Moldova’s resilience is strategic insurance against Russia’s hybrid warfare campaigns.
Conclusion and Key Takeaways
Moldova’s 2025 parliamentary elections are more than a domestic contest. They are a crucible for Russia’s evolving hybrid operations and a test of whether Western democracies can adapt to the next generation of interference. The Kremlin’s multimillion-dollar campaign, fueled by illicit finance, disinformation, and orchestrated violence, is designed to reverse Moldova’s European trajectory and fracture its fragile democratic institutions.
For Washington, the stakes are twofold. First, the integrity of Moldova’s elections will determine whether another European state can operate independently of Moscow’s grasp or become an instrument in its confrontation with the West. Second, the tactics tested in Moldova will not stay in Moldova. They will migrate outward, refined and repurposed for new theaters, including those directly affecting U.S. interests.
The United States should not underestimate this challenge. Supporting Moldova now through coordinated financial oversight, cybersecurity, transparent election monitoring, and engagement with civil society can strengthen the broader architecture of democratic resilience. Moldova is a laboratory where Russia is running its next experiment in hybrid warfare. The results will matter far beyond Chișinău.
Disclaimer
Generative AI was used by the author to refine the tone and readability of this piece. All analysis, data, and conclusions are the author’s own, based on research and interviews.
Header image: OSCE/Urszula Gacek; Voters cast their votes during the presidential election and constitutional referendum in Moldova, Chișinău, 20 October 2024.
Moldova’s 2025 Elections: A Test Case for Russia’s Hybrid Warfare
By Sanda Sandu
Conventional Arms
Editor’s Note: Sanda Sandu is a security expert at the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Republic of Moldova. She is the co-founder of the Platform for Security and Defence Initiatives and has extensive experience in security-sector governance, disinformation, and human rights. Sandu has authored and coordinated multiple studies on human rights, integrity building, disinformation, and security in Moldova and Eastern Europe, contributed to the development of the National Security Strategy of the Republic of Moldova, and is actively involved in shaping national security policies.
By Rachel Stohl, Director, Conventional Defense Program
Introduction
On September 28, 2025, Moldovan citizens will head to the polls for parliamentary elections that may decide the country’s geopolitical trajectory for a generation. At stake is whether Moldova continues its hard-fought path toward European integration or falls back into Moscow’s sphere of influence. The Kremlin has already invested extraordinary resources to tip the scales. Russian operations, blending financial manipulation, disinformation, provocations, and institutional sabotage, are transforming Moldova into a laboratory for hybrid interference.
For the United States, this matters profoundly. Moldova is not just a small state on the EU’s eastern frontier. It is a testing ground for Russia’s evolving toolkit of coercion, one that includes massive disinformation, illicit financing networks, and targeted societal fragmentation. How Washington and its allies respond will not only determine Moldova’s democratic resilience but also shape the credibility of Western deterrence against Russian interference globally. If Moscow succeeds in Moldova, the lessons learned will be applied elsewhere, including in contexts far more directly consequential for U.S. interests.
Background: Moscow’s Campaign of Electoral Sabotage
Moscow has allocated at least €100 million to operations in Moldova ahead of the 2025 elections, with the real figure likely higher given opaque illicit networks and cryptocurrency flows. These resources fuel a multifaceted campaign aimed at distorting the electoral process, suppressing turnout, and undermining trust in democratic institutions.
The financial machinery is sophisticated. Offshore networks, front parties, and corruption in the justice system funnel resources into electoral manipulation. Ilan Șor, a fugitive oligarch in Moscow, is orchestrating efforts to destabilize by financing protests and laundering Russian funds. Through his ruble-based stablecoin A7A5, money is funneled via black-market exchanges in Turkey, the UAE, and Lebanon before being recycled into Moldovan politics to evade sanctions. Following U.S. sanctions, the coin crashed, helping to disrupt the financial pipeline. Sor has been central in operationalizing these tactics, scaling up vote-buying strategies first tested in Gagauzia to national elections in 2023 and 2024. The goal is clear: establish clientelist control, purchase loyalty, and destabilize institutions that threaten Russian influence.
But Moscow’s campaign is not confined to financial subversion. According to Intelligence Services, Russian operatives have prepared scenarios designed to trigger street unrest. Tactics include arson, hooliganism, false bomb alerts, and cyberattacks all calibrated to overwhelm state institutions and create the perception of dysfunction. Reports suggest that Moldovans received training in Serbia from representatives of the Russian Federation’s special services on behavior, tactics, and methods of attack and resistance against law enforcement.
On Monday, September 22, Moldova Police and security forces conducted 250 searches of more than 100 people. The searches are related to a criminal case into the preparation of mass riots and destabilization, which were coordinated from the Russian Federation. By saturating Moldova’s limited capacity, these activities are meant to delegitimize the government and erode public trust in democratic procedures.
The information domain is even more alarming. Russia has deployed AI-enabled disinformation campaigns that fuse micro-targeting, bot networks, deepfakes, and fabricated news articles. These campaigns are designed for speed, volume, and saturation, overwhelming domestic actors who cannot compete. Young audiences are being targeted on TikTok and drawn into parallel online ecosystems where official communication rarely penetrates. Religious institutions, particularly the Orthodox Church aligned with Moscow, provide logistical infrastructure and legitimacy for pro-Russian messaging, embedding disinformation in local civic life.
Impact: Why Moldova’s Elections Matter Beyond Its Borders
The Kremlin’s operations in Moldova carry implications well beyond Chișinău. They represent a case study in how Russia has adapted its hybrid warfare toolkit for a new era. The campaign showcases Moscow’s ability to integrate financial corruption, disinformation, and potential kinetic action into a synchronized strategy. If successful, this model will be exportable, applied in Georgia, the Balkans, and potentially even within NATO or EU states. Moldova is a proving ground for methods that could later destabilize environments directly tied to U.S. security commitments.
The use of AI-enabled disinformation introduces a new frontier in electoral interference. Moldova is the first known case where Russian operators have systematically targeted adolescents with fake narratives. If these methods prove effective, they could soon be deployed against more resilient democracies, including the United States. The lessons Moscow learns about platform vulnerabilities, narrative engineering, and youth radicalization will inform future interference campaigns elsewhere.
Moldova’s elections are directly tied to European security. If Moscow succeeds in derailing Moldova’s EU accession, it will weaken the Union’s ability to integrate vulnerable states and embolden Russia to escalate in other contested zones. For Washington, which relies on European partners for burden-sharing, the erosion of EU credibility undermines the transatlantic alliance at a critical moment of global contestation.
Moldova’s vulnerability highlights the enduring importance of institutional resilience. Russia’s hybrid campaign exploits weaknesses in judicial independence, oversight capacity, and civic trust. These are precisely the areas where Western support, through technical assistance, financial monitoring, and civil society partnerships, can have the greatest impact. For the United States, investing in Moldova’s resilience is strategic insurance against Russia’s hybrid warfare campaigns.
Conclusion and Key Takeaways
Moldova’s 2025 parliamentary elections are more than a domestic contest. They are a crucible for Russia’s evolving hybrid operations and a test of whether Western democracies can adapt to the next generation of interference. The Kremlin’s multimillion-dollar campaign, fueled by illicit finance, disinformation, and orchestrated violence, is designed to reverse Moldova’s European trajectory and fracture its fragile democratic institutions.
For Washington, the stakes are twofold. First, the integrity of Moldova’s elections will determine whether another European state can operate independently of Moscow’s grasp or become an instrument in its confrontation with the West. Second, the tactics tested in Moldova will not stay in Moldova. They will migrate outward, refined and repurposed for new theaters, including those directly affecting U.S. interests.
The United States should not underestimate this challenge. Supporting Moldova now through coordinated financial oversight, cybersecurity, transparent election monitoring, and engagement with civil society can strengthen the broader architecture of democratic resilience. Moldova is a laboratory where Russia is running its next experiment in hybrid warfare. The results will matter far beyond Chișinău.
Disclaimer
Generative AI was used by the author to refine the tone and readability of this piece. All analysis, data, and conclusions are the author’s own, based on research and interviews.
Header image: OSCE/Urszula Gacek; Voters cast their votes during the presidential election and constitutional referendum in Moldova, Chișinău, 20 October 2024.
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