Editor’s Note: While the Stimson Center rarely publishes anonymous work, the author of this commentary is a Tehran-based analyst who has requested anonymity out of legitimate concern for their personal safety. The writer is known to appropriate staff, has a track record of reliable analysis, and is in a position to provide an otherwise unavailable perspective.
By Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow, Middle East Perspectives
Despite continued government repression and in the face of threats of war, Iranian society is experiencing significant momentum towards a more accountable and representative system of governance, marked by a rising level of public activism and demands on the ruling establishment for reform and transparency.
Current nuclear negotiations with the United States are, in part, the result of civil society pressures that have forced Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to cross long-stated red lines on engagement with an administration led by Donald Trump, the president who ordered the assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in his first term.
However, a pivotal moment came earlier this year when a reformist coalition called for public protests against the more than decade-long house arrest of Mehdi Karoubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, leaders of the 2009 Green Movement against fraud-tainted presidential elections. The protest calls represented a broader demand for recognition of Iranians’ civil rights. The regime responded in typical heavy-handed reaction to peaceful demonstrations. But protest organizers — veterans of Iran’s 1980-88 war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq — tapped into widespread frustrations over Iran’s dire economic situation as well as the deprivation of civil rights.
Another trend has involved open letters directed at Khamenei from political activists such as Mustafa Tajzadeh, social scientist Mustafa Mehrayeen, social activist and Islamic scholar Sedigheh Vasmaghi and jailed human rights activist Mehdi Mahmoudian that articulate public grievances and call for the 86-year-old Khamenei to step down after 36 years in power. The latest letter came from Hossein Ansari Raad, a Shi’ite Muslim cleric, former parliamentarian, and political activist. Addressing the leader, he stated that Khamenei’s rule had been catastrophic. “What the Iranian people demand is not only peace with the West and the United States, but peace with the world,” Ansari wrote.
In the face of these social pressures, Khamenei has already been softening his own red lines on issues including enforced veiling of women as well as a rejection of direct talks with the U.S. In March, the government ended the house arrest of Karroubi and indicated plans to release Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard.
The regime’s remaining red lines include the powerful role of the Council of Guardians, which vets all candidates for elected office to ensure their loyalty to the system. This remains a key stumbling block to peaceful political change. The final red line is rejection of the state of Israel, but that may evolve toward acceptance of a regional consensus for a two-state solution, especially in light of the blows that the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” has suffered since the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
By transgressing some of his own red lines, Khamenei has eroded his standing with regime loyalists. Even some of his most devoted followers are now turning away, warning that the regime’s survival is at stake. Parliamentarian Mohammad Mannan went so far as to state on national television that the regime’s “hard core endures economic hardship, believing in the implementation of God’s commandments. They fear losing hope if the Islamic nature of the revolution is compromised. If this happens, the regime will collapse.”
While the regime relies on a minority of loyalists, it has lost younger generations who identify with their cohorts abroad, particularly in the West. Anti-Americanism has not been prevalent in Iran for decades, and the resumption of talks with the U.S. has led to calls for a resumption of full diplomatic relations, which the U.S. broke in 1980 in the throes of the Iran hostage crisis.
Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that successful negotiations could lead to “détente in Iran-US relations, followed by moving toward economic and political relations and resumption of full diplomatic relations with the reopening of embassies.” Another political moderate, Ali Motahari, went further, commenting that Iranian hardliners “share many things with Israel as they both strongly oppose any direct negotiations and a possible agreement with the U.S.”
Despite these positive developments, the progress achieved by civil society remains fragile and vulnerable to external shocks. One of the most significant threats is the potential for military confrontation with the U.S. or Israel. Such a conflict could undermine democratic aspirations and further entrench authoritarian tendencies in Iranian society. Historical precedents, such as the Iran-Iraq War, illustrate how foreign interventions prompt citizens to prioritize national unity over internal dissent. War also exacerbates existing socio-economic problems, diverting attention from political reforms to immediate survival and recovery needs.
Iranian hardliners would likely utilize foreign attacks to validate their narrative in favor of a strong centralized state to ensure national security.
In a recent letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, numerous intellectuals and activists expressed support for Iran’s integrity against foreign aggression. The signatories included political dissidents who have faced jail and other persecution for their beliefs.
If war can be averted, recent momentum in Iranian civil society offers hope for gradual reform. The international community must consider these dynamics carefully and understand that an internally driven process, untainted by external aggression, is crucial to help realize the aspirations of the Iranian people for a more democratic and just society.
Iran’s Civil Society Amid the Shadow of External Threats
By Anonymous
Middle East & North Africa
Editor’s Note: While the Stimson Center rarely publishes anonymous work, the author of this commentary is a Tehran-based analyst who has requested anonymity out of legitimate concern for their personal safety. The writer is known to appropriate staff, has a track record of reliable analysis, and is in a position to provide an otherwise unavailable perspective.
By Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow, Middle East Perspectives
Despite continued government repression and in the face of threats of war, Iranian society is experiencing significant momentum towards a more accountable and representative system of governance, marked by a rising level of public activism and demands on the ruling establishment for reform and transparency.
Current nuclear negotiations with the United States are, in part, the result of civil society pressures that have forced Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to cross long-stated red lines on engagement with an administration led by Donald Trump, the president who ordered the assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani in his first term.
However, a pivotal moment came earlier this year when a reformist coalition called for public protests against the more than decade-long house arrest of Mehdi Karoubi and Mir-Hossein Mousavi, leaders of the 2009 Green Movement against fraud-tainted presidential elections. The protest calls represented a broader demand for recognition of Iranians’ civil rights. The regime responded in typical heavy-handed reaction to peaceful demonstrations. But protest organizers — veterans of Iran’s 1980-88 war against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq — tapped into widespread frustrations over Iran’s dire economic situation as well as the deprivation of civil rights.
Another trend has involved open letters directed at Khamenei from political activists such as Mustafa Tajzadeh, social scientist Mustafa Mehrayeen, social activist and Islamic scholar Sedigheh Vasmaghi and jailed human rights activist Mehdi Mahmoudian that articulate public grievances and call for the 86-year-old Khamenei to step down after 36 years in power. The latest letter came from Hossein Ansari Raad, a Shi’ite Muslim cleric, former parliamentarian, and political activist. Addressing the leader, he stated that Khamenei’s rule had been catastrophic. “What the Iranian people demand is not only peace with the West and the United States, but peace with the world,” Ansari wrote.
In the face of these social pressures, Khamenei has already been softening his own red lines on issues including enforced veiling of women as well as a rejection of direct talks with the U.S. In March, the government ended the house arrest of Karroubi and indicated plans to release Mousavi and his wife, Zahra Rahnavard.
The regime’s remaining red lines include the powerful role of the Council of Guardians, which vets all candidates for elected office to ensure their loyalty to the system. This remains a key stumbling block to peaceful political change. The final red line is rejection of the state of Israel, but that may evolve toward acceptance of a regional consensus for a two-state solution, especially in light of the blows that the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” has suffered since the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023.
By transgressing some of his own red lines, Khamenei has eroded his standing with regime loyalists. Even some of his most devoted followers are now turning away, warning that the regime’s survival is at stake. Parliamentarian Mohammad Mannan went so far as to state on national television that the regime’s “hard core endures economic hardship, believing in the implementation of God’s commandments. They fear losing hope if the Islamic nature of the revolution is compromised. If this happens, the regime will collapse.”
While the regime relies on a minority of loyalists, it has lost younger generations who identify with their cohorts abroad, particularly in the West. Anti-Americanism has not been prevalent in Iran for decades, and the resumption of talks with the U.S. has led to calls for a resumption of full diplomatic relations, which the U.S. broke in 1980 in the throes of the Iran hostage crisis.
Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a member of the Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, stated that successful negotiations could lead to “détente in Iran-US relations, followed by moving toward economic and political relations and resumption of full diplomatic relations with the reopening of embassies.” Another political moderate, Ali Motahari, went further, commenting that Iranian hardliners “share many things with Israel as they both strongly oppose any direct negotiations and a possible agreement with the U.S.”
Despite these positive developments, the progress achieved by civil society remains fragile and vulnerable to external shocks. One of the most significant threats is the potential for military confrontation with the U.S. or Israel. Such a conflict could undermine democratic aspirations and further entrench authoritarian tendencies in Iranian society. Historical precedents, such as the Iran-Iraq War, illustrate how foreign interventions prompt citizens to prioritize national unity over internal dissent. War also exacerbates existing socio-economic problems, diverting attention from political reforms to immediate survival and recovery needs.
Iranian hardliners would likely utilize foreign attacks to validate their narrative in favor of a strong centralized state to ensure national security.
In a recent letter to UN Secretary-General António Guterres, numerous intellectuals and activists expressed support for Iran’s integrity against foreign aggression. The signatories included political dissidents who have faced jail and other persecution for their beliefs.
If war can be averted, recent momentum in Iranian civil society offers hope for gradual reform. The international community must consider these dynamics carefully and understand that an internally driven process, untainted by external aggression, is crucial to help realize the aspirations of the Iranian people for a more democratic and just society.
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