Throughout the Islamic Republic’s history, none of the proposed successors to its leaders has successfully ascended to the top position.
The pattern is evident from Mohammad Hossein Beheshti, who was assassinated in 1981, to Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who was dismissed by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the revolution, shortly before Khomeini’s death in 1989. Potential candidates to succeed Khomeini’s successor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have also been marginalized or died.
On Monday, Iranian state media reported the tragic death of President Ebrahim Raisi, who was a top contender to succeed Khamenei. The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) said that Raisi died Sunday in a helicopter crash in a mountainous region of northwestern Iran while returning from an event near the Iran-Azerbaijan border. Along with him were Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and two local officials as well as the crew of the vintage American Bell helicopter.
While Iranian news outlets focused on who might come after Raisi, with new elections scheduled June 28, the much more important question is who will succeed the 85-year-old Khamenei.
The Supreme Leader oversees a multilayered and sophisticated bureaucracy called the “Beit-e Rahbari” (Leader’s Office). The Supreme Leader, who is also known as the Vali-e Faqih, or supreme jurisprudent, exercises ultimate authority over the executive, judiciary, and legislative branches of government and is Iran’s commander in chief. The Supreme Leader appoints the head of the judiciary, approves the elected president, and exerts significant influence over the choice of the speaker of parliament.
In the early years following the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran witnessed a wave of assassinations of high-ranking officials. Beheshti, the head of the Iranian judicial system at the time, was assassinated on June 28, 1981, in a bombing operation carried out by the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), a militant group that supported the revolution but broke with those who consolidated power. This attack claimed the lives of over 70 members of the then-ruling Islamic Republic Party, including four cabinet ministers and 23 members of parliament.
A few months later, Iran’s then-president Mohammad Ali Rajaei was killed in an explosion at the office of the prime minister during a meeting of the Supreme National Security Council. The attack also claimed the lives of the prime minister and other council members. Rajaei was the successor of Abolhassan Banisadr who was impeached by the parliament and fled Iran dressed as a woman.
The loss of high-ranking figures in a newly established regime was a strong blow. Although Khomeini managed to replace them with individuals aligned with his vision, these assassinations depleted the pool of potential successors.
Another figure with leadership potential, Morteza Motahari, was assassinated in April 1979.
Compounding the issue, Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who Khomeini eventually named as his successor, was forced out of contention after he wrote a letter criticizing mass executions that occurred at the end of the Iran-Iraq war. Ironically, Raisi, as a young prosecutor, signed off on those executions.
With the extensive authority vested in the Supreme Leader, and his close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – the regime’s ultimate defender — the death of the president has not precipitated a significant crisis that affects the system’s stability. The primary concern, therefore, is what happens when the Supreme Leader dies.
Some of the proposed successors to Khamenei have already passed away. They include former president Hashemi Rafsanjani, who died on January 8, 2017, under suspicious circumstances, and former judiciary chief Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, who died of natural causes on December 24, 2018.
Others, like former President Hassan Rouhani and former judiciary head Sadegh Amoli Larijani, have been marginalized as the base for Iran’s regime grows ever narrower and more hardline. Rouhani was disqualified in recent elections for the Assembly of Experts, the body that nominally chooses the next leader, while Larijani failed to garner enough votes to keep his seat in the Assembly.
With Raisi dead, remaining potential successors include Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Khamenei, as well as Alireza Arafi, a senior cleric. However, Mojtaba lacks an executive and governance record and would be a controversial choice, suggesting that Iran had replaced a monarchy with another hereditary system. Indeed a quote attributed to Ali Khamenei opposes this option due to those concerns. Meanwhile, Arafi lacks the black turban indicating descent from the family of the Prophet Mohammad.
In an opinion poll published on March 2, 2024, by BBC Persian, experts and analysts were asked who the just-elected Assembly of Experts would likely appoint as Khamenei’s successor. At the time, the majority was split between Raisi and Mojtaba.
As president, Raisi had been considered both incompetent and repressive, overseeing economic policies that have led to rising poverty. His presidential election and recent balloting for parliament and the Assembly of Experts saw record-low turnout.
Mojtaba’s selection, meanwhile, could provoke a backlash from other influential clerics within the Islamic regime, particularly given the harsh psychological campaign waged against him after his name was first mentioned as a leadership candidate by Mir-Hossein Mousavi, a reformist leader who has been under house arrest since “losing” tainted 2009 presidential elections.
Mohsen Kadivar, a professor of Islamic Studies at Duke University, noted, “Given the deaths, disqualifications, and marginalization of some former heads of the executive and judicial branches, there is a strong possibility that the next leader will be selected from among the current or future heads of these two branches who have executive records.”
The Assembly of Experts has a three-person committee tasked with identifying candidates for Supreme Leader. The activities of this committee are highly confidential, and only one person, the current leader, is privy to its findings.
Moreover, the chosen leader traditionally must have several years of experience in managing one of the country’s major political establishments, be knowledgeable about military and security affairs, and be familiar to the public.
An option in the shadows, who has yet to suffer from the “curse of succession,” is the current head of the judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei. Despite his hardliner background, in recent years, Ejei has introduced himself as a candidate for Supreme Leader succession enforcing judicial reforms. Ejei has massive experience in the judiciary since he directed the Ministry of Intelligence in the first term of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2009). It remains to be seen whether he will be eliminated from this ominous race or will survive to attain the leadership position after Khamenei.
Mohammad Mazhari is a political scientist who served as editor-in-chief of the Arabic Mehr News Agency from 2013-2020 and as a journalist at the Tehran Times from 2020-2021. Twitter/X: @epicoria
The Curse of Succession in Iran
By Mohammad Mazhari
Middle East & North Africa
Throughout the Islamic Republic’s history, none of the proposed successors to its leaders has successfully ascended to the top position.
The pattern is evident from Mohammad Hossein Beheshti, who was assassinated in 1981, to Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who was dismissed by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the revolution, shortly before Khomeini’s death in 1989. Potential candidates to succeed Khomeini’s successor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have also been marginalized or died.
On Monday, Iranian state media reported the tragic death of President Ebrahim Raisi, who was a top contender to succeed Khamenei. The state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) said that Raisi died Sunday in a helicopter crash in a mountainous region of northwestern Iran while returning from an event near the Iran-Azerbaijan border. Along with him were Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and two local officials as well as the crew of the vintage American Bell helicopter.
While Iranian news outlets focused on who might come after Raisi, with new elections scheduled June 28, the much more important question is who will succeed the 85-year-old Khamenei.
The Supreme Leader oversees a multilayered and sophisticated bureaucracy called the “Beit-e Rahbari” (Leader’s Office). The Supreme Leader, who is also known as the Vali-e Faqih, or supreme jurisprudent, exercises ultimate authority over the executive, judiciary, and legislative branches of government and is Iran’s commander in chief. The Supreme Leader appoints the head of the judiciary, approves the elected president, and exerts significant influence over the choice of the speaker of parliament.
In the early years following the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran witnessed a wave of assassinations of high-ranking officials. Beheshti, the head of the Iranian judicial system at the time, was assassinated on June 28, 1981, in a bombing operation carried out by the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), a militant group that supported the revolution but broke with those who consolidated power. This attack claimed the lives of over 70 members of the then-ruling Islamic Republic Party, including four cabinet ministers and 23 members of parliament.
A few months later, Iran’s then-president Mohammad Ali Rajaei was killed in an explosion at the office of the prime minister during a meeting of the Supreme National Security Council. The attack also claimed the lives of the prime minister and other council members. Rajaei was the successor of Abolhassan Banisadr who was impeached by the parliament and fled Iran dressed as a woman.
The loss of high-ranking figures in a newly established regime was a strong blow. Although Khomeini managed to replace them with individuals aligned with his vision, these assassinations depleted the pool of potential successors.
Another figure with leadership potential, Morteza Motahari, was assassinated in April 1979.
Compounding the issue, Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who Khomeini eventually named as his successor, was forced out of contention after he wrote a letter criticizing mass executions that occurred at the end of the Iran-Iraq war. Ironically, Raisi, as a young prosecutor, signed off on those executions.
With the extensive authority vested in the Supreme Leader, and his close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – the regime’s ultimate defender — the death of the president has not precipitated a significant crisis that affects the system’s stability. The primary concern, therefore, is what happens when the Supreme Leader dies.
Some of the proposed successors to Khamenei have already passed away. They include former president Hashemi Rafsanjani, who died on January 8, 2017, under suspicious circumstances, and former judiciary chief Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, who died of natural causes on December 24, 2018.
Others, like former President Hassan Rouhani and former judiciary head Sadegh Amoli Larijani, have been marginalized as the base for Iran’s regime grows ever narrower and more hardline. Rouhani was disqualified in recent elections for the Assembly of Experts, the body that nominally chooses the next leader, while Larijani failed to garner enough votes to keep his seat in the Assembly.
With Raisi dead, remaining potential successors include Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Khamenei, as well as Alireza Arafi, a senior cleric. However, Mojtaba lacks an executive and governance record and would be a controversial choice, suggesting that Iran had replaced a monarchy with another hereditary system. Indeed a quote attributed to Ali Khamenei opposes this option due to those concerns. Meanwhile, Arafi lacks the black turban indicating descent from the family of the Prophet Mohammad.
In an opinion poll published on March 2, 2024, by BBC Persian, experts and analysts were asked who the just-elected Assembly of Experts would likely appoint as Khamenei’s successor. At the time, the majority was split between Raisi and Mojtaba.
As president, Raisi had been considered both incompetent and repressive, overseeing economic policies that have led to rising poverty. His presidential election and recent balloting for parliament and the Assembly of Experts saw record-low turnout.
Mojtaba’s selection, meanwhile, could provoke a backlash from other influential clerics within the Islamic regime, particularly given the harsh psychological campaign waged against him after his name was first mentioned as a leadership candidate by Mir-Hossein Mousavi, a reformist leader who has been under house arrest since “losing” tainted 2009 presidential elections.
Mohsen Kadivar, a professor of Islamic Studies at Duke University, noted, “Given the deaths, disqualifications, and marginalization of some former heads of the executive and judicial branches, there is a strong possibility that the next leader will be selected from among the current or future heads of these two branches who have executive records.”
The Assembly of Experts has a three-person committee tasked with identifying candidates for Supreme Leader. The activities of this committee are highly confidential, and only one person, the current leader, is privy to its findings.
Moreover, the chosen leader traditionally must have several years of experience in managing one of the country’s major political establishments, be knowledgeable about military and security affairs, and be familiar to the public.
An option in the shadows, who has yet to suffer from the “curse of succession,” is the current head of the judiciary, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei. Despite his hardliner background, in recent years, Ejei has introduced himself as a candidate for Supreme Leader succession enforcing judicial reforms. Ejei has massive experience in the judiciary since he directed the Ministry of Intelligence in the first term of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (2005-2009). It remains to be seen whether he will be eliminated from this ominous race or will survive to attain the leadership position after Khamenei.
Mohammad Mazhari is a political scientist who served as editor-in-chief of the Arabic Mehr News Agency from 2013-2020 and as a journalist at the Tehran Times from 2020-2021. Twitter/X: @epicoria
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