The assassination of the political leader of Hamas Tuesday in Tehran is a new earthquake in a region already destabilized by nearly ten months of warfare.
While Israel has not publicly accepted responsibility for the death of Ismail Haniyeh in an air strike, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed Israel and vowed unspecified revenge.
Coming only hours after Israel bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut killing a senior leader of Iran-backed Hezbollah, the twin strikes burnish Israel’s reputation for proficiency in targeted assassinations while further jeopardizing hopes for a cease-fire in the war in Gaza, quiet on Israel’s border with Lebanon, or the return of remaining Israeli hostages.
Fuad Shukr, the senior Hezbollah commander, was targeted for his alleged role in ordering a missile strike that killed 12 children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on July 27.
The Tehran attack was more audacious. Haniyeh was killed only hours after meeting with Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s newly inaugurated president. Hopes for a less confrontational Iran under Pezeshkian were already limited given his subordinance to the Supreme Leader; now he starts his tenure amid a severe new crisis.
Haniyeh, who normally resided in Qatar, had been Hamas’s chief negotiator in cease-fire talks with the Israelis. His death will further set back that process, which had already been jeopardized by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence on “total victory” over the Palestinian militant group, which touched off the latest war by massacring 1200 Israelis last Oct. 7. Israeli hostages seized by Hamas and still being held in Gaza are also in deeper peril as Netanyahu appears to prioritize killing Hamas leaders over obtaining the hostages’ return. Israel has yet to capture or kill the military chief of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, who ordered the deadly October attacks.
In the aftermath of the killing of Haniyeh, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani of Qatar, a key mediator in Hamas-Israel peace talks, posted on the social media platform X: “Political assassinations & continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side? Peace needs serious partners & a global stance against the disregard for human life.”
If past is prologue, Hamas will appoint new leaders who are even more radical than those Israel has killed. Palestinians, who have already lost more than 40,000 people in Gaza and 500 on the West Bank since Oct. 7 to Israeli airstrikes and militant settlers, are unlikely to give up their aspirations for dignity, freedom and sovereignty.
The lame-duck Biden administration, which has supported Israel while pushing for a cease-fire, will once again scramble to try to keep the region from exploding into a full-scale war and try to protect American troops still stationed in Iraq and Syria and fighting Iran-backed militias there and in Yemen. Indeed, attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria have picked up in recent weeks and the U.S. bombed targets in Iraq on Tuesday in strikes apparently unrelated to the Israeli actions.
As for Iran, the fact Haniyeh could be killed in its capital demonstrates once again that Iranian security services are far more efficient at repressing the Iranian people than at ferreting out hostile agents. This will likely lead to more repression as the regime searches for the evident holes in its safety net.
Despite Khamenei’s call for vengeance, Iran may take some time to consider how to retaliate against Israel. The massive missile and drone barrage Iran unleashed against Israel in April after the Israelis killed seven Iranian military officers in an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus was meant to deter future Israeli attacks on Iranian sovereign territory but clearly failed.
Many Iranians, meanwhile, will ask again why their government puts precious resources into supporting an “Axis of Resistance” against Israel while failing to meet their basic needs.
The Iranian regime, on the other hand, will use the killing of Haniyeh to argue that Israel, not Iran, is a rogue state. It will seek to drum up further outrage among Arabs already inflamed over the huge death toll of Palestinians in Gaza. Iran will also warn its Arab neighbors – especially Saudi Arabia – that closer ties with Israel will undermine, not enhance their security. Regional integration is likely to be further set back.
Meanwhile, the destruction of Gaza will continue, Israel’s international isolation will increase, and the threat of wider war will dampen regional hopes to pivot from war to economic development.
Israeli Assassination of Haniyeh Perpetuates A Grisly War
By Barbara Slavin
Middle East & North Africa
The assassination of the political leader of Hamas Tuesday in Tehran is a new earthquake in a region already destabilized by nearly ten months of warfare.
While Israel has not publicly accepted responsibility for the death of Ismail Haniyeh in an air strike, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed Israel and vowed unspecified revenge.
Coming only hours after Israel bombed the southern suburbs of Beirut killing a senior leader of Iran-backed Hezbollah, the twin strikes burnish Israel’s reputation for proficiency in targeted assassinations while further jeopardizing hopes for a cease-fire in the war in Gaza, quiet on Israel’s border with Lebanon, or the return of remaining Israeli hostages.
Fuad Shukr, the senior Hezbollah commander, was targeted for his alleged role in ordering a missile strike that killed 12 children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on July 27.
The Tehran attack was more audacious. Haniyeh was killed only hours after meeting with Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran’s newly inaugurated president. Hopes for a less confrontational Iran under Pezeshkian were already limited given his subordinance to the Supreme Leader; now he starts his tenure amid a severe new crisis.
Haniyeh, who normally resided in Qatar, had been Hamas’s chief negotiator in cease-fire talks with the Israelis. His death will further set back that process, which had already been jeopardized by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence on “total victory” over the Palestinian militant group, which touched off the latest war by massacring 1200 Israelis last Oct. 7. Israeli hostages seized by Hamas and still being held in Gaza are also in deeper peril as Netanyahu appears to prioritize killing Hamas leaders over obtaining the hostages’ return. Israel has yet to capture or kill the military chief of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, who ordered the deadly October attacks.
In the aftermath of the killing of Haniyeh, Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani of Qatar, a key mediator in Hamas-Israel peace talks, posted on the social media platform X: “Political assassinations & continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side? Peace needs serious partners & a global stance against the disregard for human life.”
If past is prologue, Hamas will appoint new leaders who are even more radical than those Israel has killed. Palestinians, who have already lost more than 40,000 people in Gaza and 500 on the West Bank since Oct. 7 to Israeli airstrikes and militant settlers, are unlikely to give up their aspirations for dignity, freedom and sovereignty.
The lame-duck Biden administration, which has supported Israel while pushing for a cease-fire, will once again scramble to try to keep the region from exploding into a full-scale war and try to protect American troops still stationed in Iraq and Syria and fighting Iran-backed militias there and in Yemen. Indeed, attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria have picked up in recent weeks and the U.S. bombed targets in Iraq on Tuesday in strikes apparently unrelated to the Israeli actions.
As for Iran, the fact Haniyeh could be killed in its capital demonstrates once again that Iranian security services are far more efficient at repressing the Iranian people than at ferreting out hostile agents. This will likely lead to more repression as the regime searches for the evident holes in its safety net.
Despite Khamenei’s call for vengeance, Iran may take some time to consider how to retaliate against Israel. The massive missile and drone barrage Iran unleashed against Israel in April after the Israelis killed seven Iranian military officers in an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus was meant to deter future Israeli attacks on Iranian sovereign territory but clearly failed.
Many Iranians, meanwhile, will ask again why their government puts precious resources into supporting an “Axis of Resistance” against Israel while failing to meet their basic needs.
The Iranian regime, on the other hand, will use the killing of Haniyeh to argue that Israel, not Iran, is a rogue state. It will seek to drum up further outrage among Arabs already inflamed over the huge death toll of Palestinians in Gaza. Iran will also warn its Arab neighbors – especially Saudi Arabia – that closer ties with Israel will undermine, not enhance their security. Regional integration is likely to be further set back.
Meanwhile, the destruction of Gaza will continue, Israel’s international isolation will increase, and the threat of wider war will dampen regional hopes to pivot from war to economic development.
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