Editor’s Note: Binar FK worked for a decade as a journalist based in Iraqi Kurdistan, covering wars, politics and extremist groups such as ISIS, al-Qaeda and Iranian proxies. He has also collaborated with the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, YouGov, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International, among other organizations working to resolve conflicts. He has asked that his last name be masked for reasons of personal safety.
By Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow, Middle East Perspectives
At an emergency summit Wednesday in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation issued a robust statement condemning the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran the previous week.
The statement by the 57-member group held “Israel, the illegal occupying power, fully responsible for this heinous attack” and called it “a serious infringement” of Iran’s sovereignty.
Iran has often been at odds with its fellow Muslim-majority countries — particularly the wealthy Sunni Arab states across the Persian Gulf – for interfering in their internal affairs. But Iran has also shown that it can benefit from chaos. Thus, the killing of Haniyeh – in a government guesthouse just hours after the Hamas leader had attended the inauguration of Iran’s new president – could allow Iran to increase its regional influence by harnessing Arab outrage at Israel and fostering Sunni-Shi’ite convergence.
Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Tehran has publicly endorsed and championed the Palestinian cause. More broadly, Iran’s influence in the Middle East is underpinned by a complex interplay of religious, ideological, political, and regional factors. Benefiting from unresolved regional conflicts, sectarian tensions in neighboring countries and U.S. regime change policies, Iran has meticulously developed a robust network of proxies across the Middle East.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its elite Quds Force have systematically provided arms, training, and financial assistance to militias and political entities in at least six nations: Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, Syria, and Yemen. Since the outbreak of the Gaza war following Hamas’s attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Iran has backed its partner Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shi’ite militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Yemeni Houthis as they have sought to assist Hamas in fighting back at Israel and its main sponsor, the United States.
Now as the region awaits a promised Iranian retaliation for the killing of Haniyeh – and a Hezbollah response to the assassination of a prominent militia leader in Beirut just a few days earlier – Iran is the object of efforts by many countries urging it not to further inflame a region embroiled in a grisly war.
Jordan, Syria, and Iraq have all condemned the assassination of Haniyeh as a destabilizing act that threatens regional stability. Jordan’s top diplomat made a rare visit to Iran, also driven by concerns about escalation. Qatar, a pivotal mediator in Middle Eastern conflicts, highlighted that the assassination of Hamas’s chief negotiator disrupted ongoing efforts to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza.
In Lebanon, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned Haniyeh’s killing as a significant threat to peace. Similarly, Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf denounced the assassination as “treacherous and shameful,” while Egypt highlighted the repercussions of the killing on sovereignty and regional stability.
The collective condemnations potentially enable Iran to leverage this disapproval to strengthen its influence in the region and the wider Islamic world.
Historically, Iran’s Islamic regime has sought to inspire similar religious uprisings, particularly in its neighborhood. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the 1979 revolution, articulated an even wider ambition, stating, “We shall export our revolution to the whole world. Until the cry ‘there is no god but God’ resounds across the globe, the struggle will continue.”
Iranian-Palestinian relations in particular have functioned as a strategic alliance, with Iran seeking to enhance its influence and the dispossessed Palestinians benefiting from state sponsorship. Iran’s support for the Palestinian cause is partly ideological, rooted in the religious significance of Jerusalem for Muslims. Since Hamas’s 2007 takeover of Gaza, Iran has been a primary supporter, providing financial aid, military technology, and intelligence worth about $300 million annually.
Despite its pan-Islamic rhetoric, Iran also seeks to consolidate the position of fellow Shi’ite Muslims, as evidenced by its assistance in creating Hezbollah in Lebanon after the 1982 Israeli invasion of that country, the financing and training of various militia groups in Iraq, backing the Houthis in Yemen, and ensuring the survival of the Assad regime in Syria. Yet Iran seeks to avoid being perceived as the standard-bearer of Shi’ites alone.
The alliance with various Palestinian groups consolidates Iran’s role as a steadfast advocate of the Palestinian cause. Iran may even seek to leverage the assassination of Haniyeh – a humiliating security failure – to continue to position itself as the indispensable champion of the Palestinian struggle.
Beyond the statements of support that Iran has received since Haniyeh’s death, the assassination and the Gaza war might favor Iran’s strategic position.
The Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Persian Gulf states, were under pressure already because of the deaths of 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza. The killing of Haniyeh might spark further public backlash, putting pressure on governments in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan to reconsider their ties with Israel.
Already, prospects for extending the accords to Saudi Arabia are on the back burner, while the UAE has expressed “deep concern over the continued escalation and its repercussions on security and stability in the region,” emphasizing the need for “maximum restraint and wisdom.” Similarly, Bahrain has highlighted the “dangerous repercussions on regional security and stability,” calling for an immediate end to the conflict and urging the international community to support de-escalation efforts.
Saudi Arabia has been trying to balance its strategic interest in a defense relationship with Israel, aimed at countering Iranian influence, with the widespread pro-Palestinian sentiment among its population and the broader Muslim world. Its willingness to host the emergency OIC meeting in Jeddah illustrated this juggling act. It might also increase diplomatic support for the Palestinian Authority and financial aid to Palestinian refugees.
The assassination of Haniyeh was a geopolitical earthquake with the potential to reshape regional dynamics. Iran’s support for a so-called “Axis of Resistance” has put it into jeopardy as tensions rise with Israel and the two countries’ long-time “shadow war” breaks out into the open. At the same time, however, Iran’s backing of the Palestinian cause disrupts U.S. and regional efforts to contain Tehran and forces Persian Gulf states to reassess their ties with Israel amid a public backlash against mounting Palestinian deaths. How Iran maneuvers in this crisis will be pivotal in defining its future regional role.
Binar FK is a Master of Global Affairs candidate at the Keough School of Global Affairs and a Fellow at the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame, USA. Currently based in Washington, D.C., he formerly worked in journalism, covering wars and conflicts in the Middle East for a decade, with a focus on extremist groups such as ISIL, ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and other militias. He also makes occasional media appearances, analyzing and discussing the latest developments, security, and political dynamics in Iraq and the wider Middle East.
Haniyeh’s Killing Could Boomerang and Help Iran
By Binar FK
Middle East & North Africa
Editor’s Note: Binar FK worked for a decade as a journalist based in Iraqi Kurdistan, covering wars, politics and extremist groups such as ISIS, al-Qaeda and Iranian proxies. He has also collaborated with the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, YouGov, Human Rights Watch, and Amnesty International, among other organizations working to resolve conflicts. He has asked that his last name be masked for reasons of personal safety.
By Barbara Slavin, Distinguished Fellow, Middle East Perspectives
At an emergency summit Wednesday in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation issued a robust statement condemning the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran the previous week.
The statement by the 57-member group held “Israel, the illegal occupying power, fully responsible for this heinous attack” and called it “a serious infringement” of Iran’s sovereignty.
Iran has often been at odds with its fellow Muslim-majority countries — particularly the wealthy Sunni Arab states across the Persian Gulf – for interfering in their internal affairs. But Iran has also shown that it can benefit from chaos. Thus, the killing of Haniyeh – in a government guesthouse just hours after the Hamas leader had attended the inauguration of Iran’s new president – could allow Iran to increase its regional influence by harnessing Arab outrage at Israel and fostering Sunni-Shi’ite convergence.
Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Tehran has publicly endorsed and championed the Palestinian cause. More broadly, Iran’s influence in the Middle East is underpinned by a complex interplay of religious, ideological, political, and regional factors. Benefiting from unresolved regional conflicts, sectarian tensions in neighboring countries and U.S. regime change policies, Iran has meticulously developed a robust network of proxies across the Middle East.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its elite Quds Force have systematically provided arms, training, and financial assistance to militias and political entities in at least six nations: Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian Territories, Syria, and Yemen. Since the outbreak of the Gaza war following Hamas’s attacks on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, Iran has backed its partner Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shi’ite militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Yemeni Houthis as they have sought to assist Hamas in fighting back at Israel and its main sponsor, the United States.
Now as the region awaits a promised Iranian retaliation for the killing of Haniyeh – and a Hezbollah response to the assassination of a prominent militia leader in Beirut just a few days earlier – Iran is the object of efforts by many countries urging it not to further inflame a region embroiled in a grisly war.
Jordan, Syria, and Iraq have all condemned the assassination of Haniyeh as a destabilizing act that threatens regional stability. Jordan’s top diplomat made a rare visit to Iran, also driven by concerns about escalation. Qatar, a pivotal mediator in Middle Eastern conflicts, highlighted that the assassination of Hamas’s chief negotiator disrupted ongoing efforts to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza.
In Lebanon, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned Haniyeh’s killing as a significant threat to peace. Similarly, Algerian Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf denounced the assassination as “treacherous and shameful,” while Egypt highlighted the repercussions of the killing on sovereignty and regional stability.
The collective condemnations potentially enable Iran to leverage this disapproval to strengthen its influence in the region and the wider Islamic world.
Historically, Iran’s Islamic regime has sought to inspire similar religious uprisings, particularly in its neighborhood. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the 1979 revolution, articulated an even wider ambition, stating, “We shall export our revolution to the whole world. Until the cry ‘there is no god but God’ resounds across the globe, the struggle will continue.”
Iranian-Palestinian relations in particular have functioned as a strategic alliance, with Iran seeking to enhance its influence and the dispossessed Palestinians benefiting from state sponsorship. Iran’s support for the Palestinian cause is partly ideological, rooted in the religious significance of Jerusalem for Muslims. Since Hamas’s 2007 takeover of Gaza, Iran has been a primary supporter, providing financial aid, military technology, and intelligence worth about $300 million annually.
Despite its pan-Islamic rhetoric, Iran also seeks to consolidate the position of fellow Shi’ite Muslims, as evidenced by its assistance in creating Hezbollah in Lebanon after the 1982 Israeli invasion of that country, the financing and training of various militia groups in Iraq, backing the Houthis in Yemen, and ensuring the survival of the Assad regime in Syria. Yet Iran seeks to avoid being perceived as the standard-bearer of Shi’ites alone.
The alliance with various Palestinian groups consolidates Iran’s role as a steadfast advocate of the Palestinian cause. Iran may even seek to leverage the assassination of Haniyeh – a humiliating security failure – to continue to position itself as the indispensable champion of the Palestinian struggle.
Beyond the statements of support that Iran has received since Haniyeh’s death, the assassination and the Gaza war might favor Iran’s strategic position.
The Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Persian Gulf states, were under pressure already because of the deaths of 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza. The killing of Haniyeh might spark further public backlash, putting pressure on governments in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan to reconsider their ties with Israel.
Already, prospects for extending the accords to Saudi Arabia are on the back burner, while the UAE has expressed “deep concern over the continued escalation and its repercussions on security and stability in the region,” emphasizing the need for “maximum restraint and wisdom.” Similarly, Bahrain has highlighted the “dangerous repercussions on regional security and stability,” calling for an immediate end to the conflict and urging the international community to support de-escalation efforts.
Saudi Arabia has been trying to balance its strategic interest in a defense relationship with Israel, aimed at countering Iranian influence, with the widespread pro-Palestinian sentiment among its population and the broader Muslim world. Its willingness to host the emergency OIC meeting in Jeddah illustrated this juggling act. It might also increase diplomatic support for the Palestinian Authority and financial aid to Palestinian refugees.
The assassination of Haniyeh was a geopolitical earthquake with the potential to reshape regional dynamics. Iran’s support for a so-called “Axis of Resistance” has put it into jeopardy as tensions rise with Israel and the two countries’ long-time “shadow war” breaks out into the open. At the same time, however, Iran’s backing of the Palestinian cause disrupts U.S. and regional efforts to contain Tehran and forces Persian Gulf states to reassess their ties with Israel amid a public backlash against mounting Palestinian deaths. How Iran maneuvers in this crisis will be pivotal in defining its future regional role.
Binar FK is a Master of Global Affairs candidate at the Keough School of Global Affairs and a Fellow at the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame, USA. Currently based in Washington, D.C., he formerly worked in journalism, covering wars and conflicts in the Middle East for a decade, with a focus on extremist groups such as ISIL, ISIS, Al-Qaeda, and other militias. He also makes occasional media appearances, analyzing and discussing the latest developments, security, and political dynamics in Iraq and the wider Middle East.
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