“Election 2008 and the Future of Cross-Strait Relations” by Alan D. Romberg appears in China Leadership Monitor, No. 21, Summer 2007. China Leadership Monitor is sponsored by the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution, and Peace at Stanford University.
With the nomination of Frank Hsieh Chang-ting as the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate to oppose Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Ma Ying-jeou in Taiwan’s March 2008 presidential election, and with the PRC gearing up greater pressure on Taiwan’s participation in international organizations, this is an appropriate moment to think about how the election will affect cross-Strait relations. The policies adopted by the next Taipei administration will, of course, be decisive in determining the course of those relations over the next four or even eight years. However, the campaign itself will shape both the way the next administration approaches cross-Strait issues and the mindset of Mainland policymakers as they prepare to deal with the new Taiwan leadership. It will also condition U.S. attitudes toward the winner.
For the published text, click here.