Seismic Shift: Understanding Change in the Middle East

The momentous events sweeping the Arab world since the end of 2010 raise important questions about the art and science of analyzing political and societal events.  Stimson invited a group of experts to evaluate how various non-government sectors looked at prospects for change in the Middle East prior to December 2010: university scholars, think tanks, democracy and human rights non-governmental organizations (NGOs), journalists, social media, and private business.  No sector would claim to have predicted the exact sequence of events, but many had deep insights into changing conditions in the region. Join us for a lively discussion about our analysis featured in the new publication, Seismic Shift: Understanding Change in the Middle East.

Moderated by Ellen Laipson
Think Tanks


  Gregory Gause
  Academic Community

Andrew Marshall
Risk Analysis

Courtney Radsch
Blogosphere and Social Media

Mona Yacoubian
Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs)

Please RSVP to [email protected] or 202-223-5956.

Ellen Laipson served as Project Director for this study. She is President and Chief Executive Officer at the Stimson Center. She also directs the Southwest Asia project, which focuses on security issues in the Gulf region. In late 2009, President Obama named Laipson to the President’s Intelligence Advisory Board. Before joining Stimson in 2002, she served in government for 25 years and held senior positions in the National Intelligence Council (NIC), the National Security Council, the US Department of State, and the Congressional Research Service of the Library of Congress.

View the video from the event:



Part of the Lebanon Working Group Project
Middle East
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