On October 1, Shigeru Ishiba, after being elected as the president of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on September 27, was elected to be the 102nd prime minister of Japan. Having announced that he will dissolve the House of Representative (Lower House) on October 9, his administration can go down in Japanese political history as the shortest administration.
However, among the top three contenders—Shinjiro Koizumi, Sanae Takaichi, and Shigeru Ishiba—the LDP picked the leader that looked neither fresh nor different. In fact, Ishiba is full of contradictions, both as a politician and in his policy outlook.
As a politician, Ishiba’s strength is believed to be among average voters, as his popularity tends to be focused outside metropolitan areas. However, the results of the preliminary round of votes for LDP presidential election were mixed, as runoff candidate Sanae Takaichi won more votes from local LDP supporters. In fact, it did not go unnoticed that Takaichi was the candidate to defy expectations by finishing at the top, collecting more votes from both Diet members and non-Diet LDP supporters across Japan. Initial approval ratings of Ishiba’s new cabinet are at 52% – not terrible, but not great either, given that most cabinets hit their highest approval rating at the beginning of their tenures. These middling approval ratings, together with Japanese business’s less-than-enthusiastic response – Nikkei showed a noticeable drop immediately after Ishiba’s election – do not put Ishiba and his government on a very good standing prior to the national election Ishiba has called for October 27.
While Ishiba prides himself to be an expert on national security and defense issues, the commentary he contributed to the Hudson Institute Japan Chair prior to his election as LDP president suggests his expertise may not exactly be up-to-date on both the geostrategic reality Japan has been grappling with and Japan’s responses to this reality for the last decade while Ishiba was on the margins of the government’s decisionmaking. Lack of reference to new domains such as cyber, space, and other emerging technologies and the resurrection of “tried-but-never-went-anywhere-for-good-reasons” ideas including “Asian NATO” and “revision of Status of Force Agreement between the U.S. and Japan” are good examples.
Furthermore, Ishiba and his ruling coalition is heading into the October 27 election to convince Japanese voters who had been deeply unhappy with the government that they are worthy of winning the people’s renewed confidence. However, the current Ishiba cabinet lacks one critical ingredient to convince the voters—the “fresh” and/or “different” look that the voters can be excited about as their leader. Ishiba himself has been around for some time—he is a second-generation politician who has been in the Japanese Diet since 1986. The last week’s run for LDP presidency was his fifth. When the former prime minister Kishida announced his decision to step down at the end of his LDP presidential term, the voters had hoped to see a “fresh face” leading the LDP. However, out of the top three candidates—Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi, and Shinjiro Koizumi—, the party decided to choose a leader who is neither fresh nor different. Furthermore, the looks of his cabinet selection, while many are accomplished and well-respected politicians, scream “same old, same old” lineup. With predominantly old men and only a couple of female appointees, this is hardly the look of the cabinet for the voters who needed to see a “fresh start” for the LDP.
Ishiba chose to dissolve the House of Representatives so soon after his cabinet began with the calculation that he could catch the opposition off-guard and prevent them from gaining momentum. Not a bad choice as an election tactic, but terrible for the nation as Japan heads into the last quarter when the government’s FY2025-2026 budget needs to be finalized, the private sector needs to begin planning for the near year, and, most importantly, after a year filled with various large-scale natural disasters throughout the year, so many people in Japan desperately need immediate relief. By holding an election within a week after the new cabinet has been formed and thereby putting any major government decisions on hold for another month, Ishiba is signaling that gaining confidence from the voters is a more important priority than immediately beginning to tend to the urgent issues that impact the lives of average Japanese voters.
Since Japanese opposition parties continue to be disorganized and in disarray, it is unlikely to see the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition defeated in the upcoming election. But Prime Minister Ishiba may face an inconvenient reality that his governing task may not get any easier after the election.
Japan Elects A New Leader: Is Anyone Missing Kishida Already?
By Yuki Tatsumi
Japan
On October 1, Shigeru Ishiba, after being elected as the president of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on September 27, was elected to be the 102nd prime minister of Japan. Having announced that he will dissolve the House of Representative (Lower House) on October 9, his administration can go down in Japanese political history as the shortest administration.
However, among the top three contenders—Shinjiro Koizumi, Sanae Takaichi, and Shigeru Ishiba—the LDP picked the leader that looked neither fresh nor different. In fact, Ishiba is full of contradictions, both as a politician and in his policy outlook.
As a politician, Ishiba’s strength is believed to be among average voters, as his popularity tends to be focused outside metropolitan areas. However, the results of the preliminary round of votes for LDP presidential election were mixed, as runoff candidate Sanae Takaichi won more votes from local LDP supporters. In fact, it did not go unnoticed that Takaichi was the candidate to defy expectations by finishing at the top, collecting more votes from both Diet members and non-Diet LDP supporters across Japan. Initial approval ratings of Ishiba’s new cabinet are at 52% – not terrible, but not great either, given that most cabinets hit their highest approval rating at the beginning of their tenures. These middling approval ratings, together with Japanese business’s less-than-enthusiastic response – Nikkei showed a noticeable drop immediately after Ishiba’s election – do not put Ishiba and his government on a very good standing prior to the national election Ishiba has called for October 27.
While Ishiba prides himself to be an expert on national security and defense issues, the commentary he contributed to the Hudson Institute Japan Chair prior to his election as LDP president suggests his expertise may not exactly be up-to-date on both the geostrategic reality Japan has been grappling with and Japan’s responses to this reality for the last decade while Ishiba was on the margins of the government’s decisionmaking. Lack of reference to new domains such as cyber, space, and other emerging technologies and the resurrection of “tried-but-never-went-anywhere-for-good-reasons” ideas including “Asian NATO” and “revision of Status of Force Agreement between the U.S. and Japan” are good examples.
Furthermore, Ishiba and his ruling coalition is heading into the October 27 election to convince Japanese voters who had been deeply unhappy with the government that they are worthy of winning the people’s renewed confidence. However, the current Ishiba cabinet lacks one critical ingredient to convince the voters—the “fresh” and/or “different” look that the voters can be excited about as their leader. Ishiba himself has been around for some time—he is a second-generation politician who has been in the Japanese Diet since 1986. The last week’s run for LDP presidency was his fifth. When the former prime minister Kishida announced his decision to step down at the end of his LDP presidential term, the voters had hoped to see a “fresh face” leading the LDP. However, out of the top three candidates—Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi, and Shinjiro Koizumi—, the party decided to choose a leader who is neither fresh nor different. Furthermore, the looks of his cabinet selection, while many are accomplished and well-respected politicians, scream “same old, same old” lineup. With predominantly old men and only a couple of female appointees, this is hardly the look of the cabinet for the voters who needed to see a “fresh start” for the LDP.
Ishiba chose to dissolve the House of Representatives so soon after his cabinet began with the calculation that he could catch the opposition off-guard and prevent them from gaining momentum. Not a bad choice as an election tactic, but terrible for the nation as Japan heads into the last quarter when the government’s FY2025-2026 budget needs to be finalized, the private sector needs to begin planning for the near year, and, most importantly, after a year filled with various large-scale natural disasters throughout the year, so many people in Japan desperately need immediate relief. By holding an election within a week after the new cabinet has been formed and thereby putting any major government decisions on hold for another month, Ishiba is signaling that gaining confidence from the voters is a more important priority than immediately beginning to tend to the urgent issues that impact the lives of average Japanese voters.
Since Japanese opposition parties continue to be disorganized and in disarray, it is unlikely to see the ruling LDP-Komeito coalition defeated in the upcoming election. But Prime Minister Ishiba may face an inconvenient reality that his governing task may not get any easier after the election.
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