Where Will Tunisia Take Us?

November 03, 2011

Most Tunisians have waited a lifetime to vote in an election in which the result was not predetermined. On October 23rd, they had that chance. Roughly 90 percent of registered Tunisian voters waited patiently, some for hours, to cast their ballots for a constitutional assembly - the body tasked with rewriting Tunisia's constitution over the next year. Following the success of peaceful, free, and fair elections, Tunisia now faces the daunting task of reconciling diverse interpretations of the country's democratic future. The constitutional assembly's ability to harmonize secular democratic principles and Islamic beliefs within the constitution could set a precedent for other Arab Spring countries.

The October elections were a triumph in their own right, as Tunisia faced and overcame the inevitable problems of a country conducting its first free elections - including a plethora of small political parties, a lack of civil education, and poor access to reliable information about electoral processes and party platforms. With more than 100 newly minted political parties to choose from, deciding on a party was a daunting task. In fact, eight out of ten Tunisian voters polled in late May said they needed more information on important issues such as voter registration, polling locations, party platforms, and candidates. To address these issues, Tunisia established an Independent High Authority for Elections (ISIE), tasked with everything from voter outreach and registration, to monitoring political parties' plans and finances. Realizing the difficulty of their task, the ISIE postponed the elections from July to October and continued their outreach to educate the populace about voting procedures. Grassroots campaigns, websites, and other media also contributed to ensuring that parties' messages reached the public. Benefitting from Tunisia's developed infrastructure and literate population, civic education campaigns were able to reach the masses in a record amount of time.

Ennahda, the moderate Islamic Party that had been banned in Tunisia until 10 months ago, received around 40 percent of the votes and is now the largest single party represented in the 217-seat constitutional assembly. Its longstanding opposition to the former ruler, strong anti-corruption credentials, and Islamic moral base has made it the default choice for many Tunisians. The party's platform also benefited from a strong campaign strategy and sound organizational structures leading to their unquestionable domination in the elections.

The head of Ennahda, Rachid Ghannouchi, affirms his party's dedication to a moderate form of 'Tunisian' Islam from which its values are drawn, but said it would not pursue an Islamic state.  This new rhetoric, evolving slowly over the 22 years of Ghannouch's exile in London, contradicts the party's violent past, which includes the bombing of tourist hotels in the 1980s. Some secularists and moderates are concerned that Ennahda is hiding behind a moderate veneer until they obtain power, after which they will push a more hard-line agenda.

In spite of these fears, the post-election climate is promising. Ghannouchi already has announced his intention to pursue stable political alliances with secular parties. This includes alliances with Ennahda's closest rivals, two secular socialist parties: the formerly banned nationalist leftist Congress for the Republic, led by Moncef Marzouki, and Ettakatol, led by Mustapha Ben Jaafar. Both leaders have indicated their willingness to work with Ennahda and talks to form a coalition have already begun. The next real indication of progress will be whether the various parties, under Ennahda's leadership, can successfully unite to create a constitution that encompasses Tunisian values, promotes freedom, and protects human rights.

Being the first post-Arab spring country to overthrow its dictator and the first to hold elections, the Tunisian transition foreshadows obstacles that Egypt, Libya, and Yemen will have to face. This includes finding a balance between proponents of a secular government versus one based on Islamic law. Tunisia is helping to define the role that Islam will play in emerging Arab democracies and has set a bold example by having non-violent, free elections less then a year after the ousting of their dictator. As Egypt's November elections approach, accompanied by increasing violence between religious groups, many would like to look to Tunisia as a bellwether of what is to come. However, it remains to be seen whether Tunisia's successes are an exception, or a trend that can be replicated in other transitioning countries.

Photo Credit: By Freedom at Issue, Flickr, http://www.flickr.com/photos/69135597@N02/6286258694/in/photostream/